kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
I think that the top 3 from this draft all slot in above Tannehill. I would probably slot TB above Griffin and the other two behind him. (Without the benefit of hindsight)
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Manziel
- Thread starter Wolf
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I think that the top 3 from this draft all slot in above Tannehill. I would probably slot TB above Griffin and the other two behind him. (Without the benefit of hindsight)
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Good read Playoffs, keep up the good work.
Everytime I think I'm out on Manziel I see something that keeps me interested.
bah007
Hall of Fame
I'm not digging two years into my post history but you're welcome to do it if you wish. I never said I had him rated as a high first round pick. I had him rated near the end of the 1st round.
You're the one talking about other people's ratings=better prospect. You put that on yourself. I didn't mean that as a personal shot at you. I meant that as a way of saying that my rankings are sometimes different than what other people's are. Most people did not have Wilson as a 1st round talent. I did.
I judge prospects on my own and try not to let other people's opinions guide me. If that means I'm way wrong sometimes then so be it.
I value QBs who don't need much work mentally to make the jump from college to the pros. That's why I was high on Wilson and it's why I'm high on Bridgewater.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?
Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
The Cardinals would probably give up their 1st for him, but partially because that would mean the Seahawks would need a new QB...
I really don't see Wilson as being worth a top 15 pick, even today. He's an excellent game manager, but you have to have a really good defense and running game to go with him. He can do alright with an average o-line due to his pocket presence and mobility, which allows the team to invest more heavily into other areas. That's a big positive, and as long as he stays cheap, he's well worth the investment.
I think it will be very telling in 2 years when Wilson's contract is up for negotiation. I really wonder if the Seahawks will look to draft a replacement for him this year or next, because I think his pricetag will far outweigh his value. If they have a cheap backup plan in place (like a Garrapolo, Murray, Smith, etc) I think they might just trade him or let him walk. He's going to want probably 12 million a year, and I don't think he will be worth it at that point.
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?
Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
The Cardinals would probably give up their 1st for him, but partially because that would mean the Seahawks would need a new QB...
I really don't see Wilson as being worth a top 15 pick, even today. He's an excellent game manager, but you have to have a really good defense and running game to go with him. He can do alright with an average o-line due to his pocket presence and mobility, which allows the team to invest more heavily into other areas. That's a big positive, and as long as he stays cheap, he's well worth the investment.
I think it will be very telling in 2 years when Wilson's contract is up for negotiation. I really wonder if the Seahawks will look to draft a replacement for him this year or next, because I think his pricetag will far outweigh his value. If they have a cheap backup plan in place (like a Garrapolo, Murray, Smith, etc) I think they might just trade him or let him walk. He's going to want probably 12 million a year, and I don't think he will be worth it at that point.
I see the point you're trying to make, but i think you're underrating him a little too much here. If it wasn't for his defense giving up 30 pts, He most certainly would've had the Seahawks in the NFC championship game his rookie year. Kid put in a damn fine effort against ATL too with nearly 400 yds passing, 60 yds rushing & 3 total TD's...& he did that as a rookie with no true #1 WR to speak of.
The thing that people miss with this kid is his poise. There's simply not a metric to measure that. He's never too high, never too low..never seems to be out of control... he's just unflappable no matter the situation. Coming out of college that was his #1 elite trait that i saw immediately...Like Luck he had it in spades. & that more than anything is what makes a qb great imo.
It's also what allows him to buck the sophomore slump trend that pretty much every other rookie qb has once teams get tape on them.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Would take a hell of a lot of digging to find that info.
I distinctly remember bah007 and one other poster (can't remember who) both really liked Wilson and had him as a borderline 1st round guy.
I absolutely didn't take any of this as a personnel shot. This is the best conversation of what Manziels value is/should be I have seen in this thread. If anyone did see Wilson's value/success I would believe it was you. I just don't remember ANYONE saying so that year.
I don't understand how you say you had Wilson rated as a late first round pick in a draft not as deep as this one yet Manziel is rated a high first his year but still you say Wilson is higher rated than Manziel coming out.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Luck - #1
Bridgewater - Top 15
Griffin - Top 15
Bortles - Top 20
Tannehill - Top 20
Manziel - 1st Round
Foles - 2nd Round
Wilson - 2nd Round
Cousins - 3rd Round
Osweiller - 3rd Round
Weeden - 4th Round
Lindley - 4th Round
Coleman - Late Round
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
He doesn't get rattled? How would you even know he's rattled, he doesn't throw the ball enough to really see it. He is rarely put in a position to try to come from behind late in a game. It's pretty hard to be rattled when your team is winning.
The guy is purely a game manager right now. He went 42 for 68 for 524 yards 3 TDs 0 INTs and 101.6 QB rating in the playoffs this year. In those 3 games, he was averaging 14 completions, 175 yards, and 1 TD a game. That is pretty much the definition of a game manager by stats, and there was a good reason he wasn't considered for the Super Bowl MVP, even though that was his best game of the playoffs.
bah007
Hall of Fame
Good. After re-reading what I wrote I was afraid it came off as a harsh criticism and it wasn't intended that way.
And I think Wilson is overrated right now for what he is in the NFL. I think he still has potential to improve but he is not a top 10 QB right now. I'm not trying to claim that I predicted Super Bowls in his future.
Easy. I don't have Manziel rated as a high first round pick.
bah007
Hall of Fame
Perhaps. He took me to school on Cam Newton, who I liked but was very critical of.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I think generally it is a false endeavor to get into pulling pieces off teams. Odds are without Wilson last year the Seahawks don't win and without the D the Seahawks don't win. They are not mutually exclusive and lack a connection.
On that specific game I think you have selective memory. Wilson starting tearing us a new a-hole on the ground in the 2nd half - 10 att. 77 yds. He played a big part in their victory as did the defense.
Well put me down as thinking y'all in the Wilson is mediocre camp are dramatically underselling him. And I think your conjecture is totally wrong. There may be some teams who view Wilson as you do but I think the odds they all do and none would trade a top 10 pick for him are zilch. I think there is a 75% chance the Texans would trade 1.1 for him happily.
Wilson by the way has 8 4th quarter comebacks and 10 game winning drives in the past two seasons. He is not just riding a D.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
I was wrong on Newton as well. He's not a great QB, but he's definitely better than I thought he would be.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Wow. That's some pretty big praise for Teddy.
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Actually it's quite the opposite for Griffin. I have been very open about not being on the RGIII hype train. Had many questions about him coming out and thought the Redskins were absolute idiots to trade three 1st round picks for him.
I straight up said he would be out of the league in 5 years and that it was a good thing they grabbed Cousins too so that he could take over for him. Without his legs, he is average.
Loved him in college, but just like Manziel, did not like the transition.
htownfan32
Hall of Fame
After watching college tape, some quick notes.
1. Wilson is much safer than Manziel. Will take chances but not as dumb about them as Manziel will be at times.
2. Manziel has greater pocket escapability. Elusiveness and vision are off the charts.
3. Wilson has better throwing mechanics than Manziel. Looks more prototypical.
4. Manziel is a much, much bigger threat with his legs.
5. They are both accurate, but Manziel is stupid accurate when improvising.
6. Both lay it all out on the field. Example: I can recall instances where they
both tackle the CB who made the interception on them. Shows that they play to the whistle.
7. Manziel seems much more instinctive than Wilson.
8. Wilson is better at taking what the defense gives to him. Great play action QB. (I daresay he would have thrived in Kubiak's system).
9. Manziel has a habit of hitting his receivers in stride on passes longer than 20 yards. Wilson's pinpoint accuracy range is the short intermediate game. Wilson has a much more regular throwing motion. Manziel is unorthodox but as accurate as he is with it, it's difficult to project whether this will be a positive or a negative in the pros. I lean to negative. Needs to work on throwing motion.
10. In my opinion, Manziel played in a more difficult conference. Not looking to start a "is the SEC the best?" debate, just my opinion.
11. Manziel forces more passes than Wilson does. He also has a habit of forcing passes to Mike Evans, but like Matt Stafford and Megatron, when you have a weapon who can go up and get it 99% of the time, you do it.
12. Manziel has the wow factor. He finds ways to make plays when you think there's absolutely nothing there.
13. Both quarterbacks are good in the 4th quarter. I would trust both of them with the game on the line with 2 minutes and down 7.
14.Both quarterbacks had good receivers in their best years. Wilson had Toon, Abbrederis, and even Montee Ball was a good receiver out of the backfield. Manziel had Swope his first year, Evans his second. Ben Malena was solid out of the backfield as well.
15. Different systems. Wisconsin and A&M offenses are different. Though Manziel had solid dependable running backs, for whatever reason Clarence McKinney (who is no longer calling plays, thank goodness) refused to hand the ball off.
At the end of the day, I still stand by my statements. Manziel has more moments where you go "oh wow". He's the playmaker out of the two. The difference is Wilson is the more level headed and prototypical in terms of what you look for in a QB of the two. He will hang in the pocket longer and look to use his arm more than his feet, while Manziel is much more paranoid in the pocket. I would have graded Wilson as an early second rounder (33-40 range) and Manziel as a late-mid to late first rounder (20-32). The difference is all it takes is one team to fall in love with Manziel's "oh wow" moments and disregard the risk (and make no mistake - I acknowledge the risk Manziel carries) to jump and pick him in the top 5.
1. Wilson is much safer than Manziel. Will take chances but not as dumb about them as Manziel will be at times.
2. Manziel has greater pocket escapability. Elusiveness and vision are off the charts.
3. Wilson has better throwing mechanics than Manziel. Looks more prototypical.
4. Manziel is a much, much bigger threat with his legs.
5. They are both accurate, but Manziel is stupid accurate when improvising.
6. Both lay it all out on the field. Example: I can recall instances where they
both tackle the CB who made the interception on them. Shows that they play to the whistle.
7. Manziel seems much more instinctive than Wilson.
8. Wilson is better at taking what the defense gives to him. Great play action QB. (I daresay he would have thrived in Kubiak's system).
9. Manziel has a habit of hitting his receivers in stride on passes longer than 20 yards. Wilson's pinpoint accuracy range is the short intermediate game. Wilson has a much more regular throwing motion. Manziel is unorthodox but as accurate as he is with it, it's difficult to project whether this will be a positive or a negative in the pros. I lean to negative. Needs to work on throwing motion.
10. In my opinion, Manziel played in a more difficult conference. Not looking to start a "is the SEC the best?" debate, just my opinion.
11. Manziel forces more passes than Wilson does. He also has a habit of forcing passes to Mike Evans, but like Matt Stafford and Megatron, when you have a weapon who can go up and get it 99% of the time, you do it.
12. Manziel has the wow factor. He finds ways to make plays when you think there's absolutely nothing there.
13. Both quarterbacks are good in the 4th quarter. I would trust both of them with the game on the line with 2 minutes and down 7.
14.Both quarterbacks had good receivers in their best years. Wilson had Toon, Abbrederis, and even Montee Ball was a good receiver out of the backfield. Manziel had Swope his first year, Evans his second. Ben Malena was solid out of the backfield as well.
15. Different systems. Wisconsin and A&M offenses are different. Though Manziel had solid dependable running backs, for whatever reason Clarence McKinney (who is no longer calling plays, thank goodness) refused to hand the ball off.
At the end of the day, I still stand by my statements. Manziel has more moments where you go "oh wow". He's the playmaker out of the two. The difference is Wilson is the more level headed and prototypical in terms of what you look for in a QB of the two. He will hang in the pocket longer and look to use his arm more than his feet, while Manziel is much more paranoid in the pocket. I would have graded Wilson as an early second rounder (33-40 range) and Manziel as a late-mid to late first rounder (20-32). The difference is all it takes is one team to fall in love with Manziel's "oh wow" moments and disregard the risk (and make no mistake - I acknowledge the risk Manziel carries) to jump and pick him in the top 5.
htownfan32
Hall of Fame
If O'Brien pulls the trigger on Manziel, I hope he sits him down day 1 in the film room, puts on tape of RG III, and says "If you don't wanna end up like this guy, listen close and do as I say."
I don't understand. Don't you have Manziel as the #15 rated prospect on your big board? Wouldn't that be a high to mid round placement?
I still wouldn't take Russell Wilson for a high 1st in this year's draft. If we are talking about draft value, what sort of pick would a QB desperate team give up for Wilson?
Would the Browns give up 4? Nope. 26? Maybe... 35? Much more likely.
Would Oakland give up 5? Don't think so. 37? Sure.
Texans 2-1 would be the most I think they would pay for it.
The Cardinals would probably give up their 1st for him, but partially because that would mean the Seahawks would need a new QB...
I really don't see Wilson as being worth a top 15 pick, even today. He's an excellent game manager, but you have to have a really good defense and running game to go with him. He can do alright with an average o-line due to his pocket presence and mobility, which allows the team to invest more heavily into other areas. That's a big positive, and as long as he stays cheap, he's well worth the investment.
I think it will be very telling in 2 years when Wilson's contract is up for negotiation. I really wonder if the Seahawks will look to draft a replacement for him this year or next, because I think his pricetag will far outweigh his value. If they have a cheap backup plan in place (like a Garrapolo, Murray, Smith, etc) I think they might just trade him or let him walk. He's going to want probably 12 million a year, and I don't think he will be worth it at that point.
I follow what you're saying, but can't agree. I don't agree with the game manager tag either. He's one step above game manager to me. Which is exactly where he should be his 2nd year into his career, on his way to being one of the best QBs in the league over the next 10 years. He's got as much upside as anyone in the draft plus play-off experience, plus conference championship experience, plus Super Bowl experience.
If Seattle would take our #1 overall pick & nothing else (heck, I'd throw in Derek Newton, Schaub, & Brice McCain) I'd probably throw a hip doing my happy dance.
Dutchrudder
Hall of Fame
Mediocre compared to the other QBs in the NFL as a whole, maybe. I don't think he's a top 10 QB, and I think he's more in the 11-15 range overall. That's slightly above average in a 32 QB league, so I guess you could call that mediocre. He was taken in the 3rd, so for what he is, that seems like a great value. I said he's worth about a late 1st to an early 2nd, which is certainly more than I would value guys like Alex Smith, Matt Schaub (even before 2013), Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill. There are currently only about 7-8 QBs I would pay 1.1 for.
Wilson is very conservative in the way he plays the game and makes decisions, and his ceiling doesn't seem that high to me. He's nowhere close to the elite QBs, but he's definitely better than the other game manager types currently out there. I don't see him putting the team on his back and taking them to the promised land. He can be an important cog in the machine, but he's not the primary reason they are winning games.
To add to that, the 10 GW drives and 4th quarter comebacks is just a stat. It doesn't tell the whole story, and any Texans fan who watched the Seattle game this year should know it wasn't Wilson winning that game for them. Who made the game tying TD to send it to OT? How many drives did the Seahawks have before they scored a FG to win the game?
Another one of the games you cite was the infamous "Simultaneous Catch" game against Green Bay. Several of those other games were Lynch TDs and Hauschka FGs. 2 of the games he didn't even have a TD, but he was the QB so he gets the credit. Details like that get overlooked when simply looking at stat lines.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Ahhh, okay. I thought he was the most dynamic player in the league until the injury... different strokes.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Well I agree details sometimes get overlooked. I'd say putting the Texans v. Seahawks game all on Sherman is overlooking that they were in position to tie the game because Wilson took the offense on his shoulders and gashed the Texans with his legs in the 2nd half. Lynch getting the 3 yd TD and getting all the credit is missing just as many details.
Anyway, we can just agree to disagree. I see more than game manager in Wilson.
drs23
Veteran
WolverineFan
Hall of Fame
Extremely dynamic. However, he had an injury history before ever getting to the league and, with his style of play, I didn't see him lasting that long. If you take his legs away he goes from very good to average.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Agree completely, and he does so little wrong. And this was his "sophomore slump" season, too.
Yeah I'm surprised his throwing has been so affected by the injury -- worse outcome than I'd have thought.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000329317/article/johnny-manziel-doesnt-impress-ron-jaworski
*****
"Jaws" says he views Manziel as 4th round pick.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
To say the bolded is to ignore a huge chunk of his senior year at Wisconsin where he lost 2-3 games b/c his defense couldn't hold a lead after he engineered drives in the final few minutes to give them the lead in the 1st place. Also, from a statiscal standpoint, His rookie season is still better than any 1 season known game managers like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco have ever had in their entire careers passing the ball. Both of those guys also had equally dominant defenses at 1 point or another in their careers too.
It's not fair to penalize him b/c he's got a solid team built around him that doesn't necessarily need him to be all world every game. The bottom line is when Wilson has been asked to put the team on his shoulders & make plays he has responded & come thru more often than not. Also keep in mind that we're talking about a 2nd year guy here.
There also aren't 10 qb's in the league better than him right now, nevertheless, we can agree to disagree.
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
There are a couple of strange things about that comment. Jaws is usually very positive when talking about any quarterback. He is notorious for loving Sanchez, even when it was clear that he was not going to be good. So, I question whether Jaws is someone to rely on in evaluating QBs. I know he does the work, but he doesn't seem to be all that great at it. JMO. At the same time, I don't necessarily disagree with him in this situation.
bah007
Hall of Fame
The more I delve into this draft class the more I'm convinced that the top talent in this class is being overrated. This class is far deeper in talent but the 2012 class was stronger in the top two rounds, IMO.
Having said that, the more I study the further Manziel is dropping down my board. I had Wilson about #25 in what I considered to be a stronger first round class than this. In my next update, Manziel will be in about that range.
bah007
Hall of Fame
To me, Jaws is the guy that can watch film and tell you exactly what's going wrong even when it's difficult to see. But he's not the guy that can tell you how to fix it.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
The quote in context: Im a big believer in Nick Foles, but who knows? Manziel may fall. Im not crazy about him, to be honest with you. Ive only looked at five games. I wouldnt take him in the first three rounds. Thats my opinion. Its incomplete right now. But he has not done a whole lot to me.
You could choose 5 of his games and support that opinion.
Bill Polian has been saying that when all is said & done this won't be seen as the "best class in years" but more ~average.
drs23
Veteran
I've got to commend you Aggie Fan Htown for your unbiased objectivity in regard to your JFF evaluation vs. Russell Wilson. Spot on. I think this post is the most accurate comparison I've seen to date. Well thought out and presented.
Kudos ad rep your way.
I just don't get it. What antics?
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Jaws in a nutshell was essentially saying that Manziel was more likely to expect the NFL to adjust to JFF than the JFF to adjust to the NFL.
That's exactly why Wilson, Kaepernick, & Luck were "so" good as rookies. They weren't asked to adjust to the NFL right away.
I can see Manziel... like Vick, being very successful year 1, year 2..... then people getting frustrated with him that he hasn't developed as "hoped" in year 3 & 4. Maybe it'll be year 5&6 like it was with Vick.
Not that he's as good as Vick, but he's got eyes in the back of his head.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
The problem with that is NFL Ds have eyes in the front of their heads and will be focused on climbing up Manziel's back............until he turns around and finds it impossible to see anything other the D staring at him nose to nose.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Yeah, that's specious at this point. JM is being judged on his tape. He did fine in the interviews.
And who reaches back to Barry Switzer?
Texian
Hall of Fame
Isn't amazing how the other side of the coin often looks. There are and there will be agendas and bias....
deucetx
Rookie
I have to agree. It's as if folks need the rest of the team to be poor or overly medicore to give a guy actual credit. I see these type of conversations about Wilson often and hear the same jargon 'It's the defense!' 'It's the run game!' And I say the same thing in response....and which of these two have anything to do with his third down conversion rate? Also where are the flaws in his game? It isn't mechanics. It isn't arm strength. Obviously not mobility. The best one could say is he is still developing the ability to read the defense/coverage which should be understandable in year 2. None the less, he does a rather good job of reading and adjusting in any case.
Not to mention he does what is asked of him, moves the chains and keeps the offense going. Just like folks seem to forget last year in the playoffs against the Falcons where he had to throw for nearly 400 yards and led what should have been the game winning drive in the final moments if the defense didn't let the Falcons drive for the winning FG. It's as if folks seek a reason to take credit for him. If it was as simple as having a run game/defense Christian Ponder would have looked more than medicore. If it was just having a run game Blaine Blabbert wouldn't look like Gomer Pyle running an offense.
Trying to find reasons to strip someone for credit that had a 100+ rating and made plays is just a reach for me. Not to mention who are his receivers? His best two were injured practically all season in Rice/Harvin and so was his LT most of the year and so forth. And he still moved chains. Was anyone clamoring for Golden Tate or Doug Baldwin before Wilson? Tate was being called a bust.
Anyway, to each their own.
jradMIT
Veteran
Wilson has grown on me, just because he doesn't carry the team doesn't mean he doesn't have major game. Its hard to argue that his receivers aren't trash. Their pretty awful, if you look at the playoff teams last year, they might have collectively been the worse.
kiwitexansfan
Hall of Fame
Gruden loves him some quarterbacks. As a self-envisioned QB Guru he thinks he could win with anyone.
Right system, right support, is that code for RAW?
Right system, right support, is that code for RAW?
Mr teX
Hall of Fame
Pretty much..I'm sure Gruden's background as a qb himself, the fact that he was on the GB staff as a qb/offensive coach when Favre came into his own..... & the fact that he won his SB with Brad Johnson has something to do with it too.....
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Guarantee you OB thinks the same about himself. He'd better.
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