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Who wins division?
- Thread starter Seegara
- Start date
I knew there had to be some kind of twist.
It's really hard for me to "predict" what the Texans are going to do. Every year it's something else. I think I know who we are then we come out & nothing makes sense. All year (2012) I kept wondering when the offense was going to get it's stuff together & all of a sudden, we're among the best offensive teams in the league. It never looked that way to me as I watched them from week to week.
You know there was a time when I thought the Houston Texans could hang 30 on anyone, & do it efficiently. One or two stops from the defense & we'd win most games. Back then, we didn't have a defense you could rely on to hold the other team to a field goal. Now we have a menacing defense & our offense got all timid & reserved.
I don't know what to think about the Colts. They didn't play well as a team last season, but they did enough to stay in enough games (8) to pull out a W in the 4th qtr. In 2013 we're going to see if they were really that good, or just lucky.
The Titans. I spend too much time on this board. There's so much hate for Bud Adams that I can't get an objective opinion of the team. We always underrate them, even when they consistently finished better than we did in the division.
The Jags..... I don't expect much from them.
We're playing the AFC & NFC West. So we'll play the Patriots & Ravens while the Colts play the Dolphins & Bengals. It's going to be interesting.
Seegara
Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
Winning the close ones is either a matter of wisely utilizing what talent you have, or luck, or getting some outside help.
Uncle Rico
Ur apology should be as loud as Ur disrespect was
Wont even be close.
The strength of the league division by division changes so quickly - it just seems like yesterday that everybody would joke about how weak the NFC West was and now it might be the best division in the NFL, certainly one of the best.
The Texans have had their way with the AFC South for 2 or 3 years now, but that will change and probably change more rapidly than we realize. I expect us to win the division again this year but I'm taking nothing for granted. I think we will lose a couple of division games and finish with about 10 wins, not 12 or 13 as some dreamers believe.
The Texans have had their way with the AFC South for 2 or 3 years now, but that will change and probably change more rapidly than we realize. I expect us to win the division again this year but I'm taking nothing for granted. I think we will lose a couple of division games and finish with about 10 wins, not 12 or 13 as some dreamers believe.
Norg
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
so u think its going to be the same has last year
Denver and Pats with the NUmber 1 and 2 seeds
I picked the Texans because I think our defense will be better. I don't have a lot of faith in Schaub overall, but I don't think he completely sucks either. So with that, I think we'll have a good balance. If Schaub surprises me and does things I don't expect (positively) then I think it's a wrap and there isn't a team close to us.
But I'm not expecting that, so I give a slim margin to the Texans.
But I'm not expecting that, so I give a slim margin to the Texans.
Both Seattle & San Francisco has been building a stout defense, their offenses are finally catching on. So you could kinda sorta see it coming.
I'd love for the AFC South to be more competitive than it has been, but we're not seeing any evidence that it might be. This division used to be Colts offense vs Jags & Titans defense. Those top ten defenses of the Jags & Titans are a thing of the past & the Colts offense, well... I just want to see them do it again.
They could all be top 10 in 2013 for all I know, but odds are against it.
ATXtexanfan
Hall of Fame
Hard not to take texans
Showtime100
Got JJ?
Huh. This board is fairly drug-free. I just looked at the results and the team at the bottom has 2 votes. At the current tally that translates to only about 4% that post on this board have a drug problem. 
Thorn
Dirty Old Man
Huh. This board is fairly drug-free. I just looked at the results and the team at the bottom has 2 votes. At the current tally that translates to only about 4% that post on this board have a drug problem.
It's hard to imagine anyone picking any team except for the Texans. There is only one thing that will keep the Texans from winning the division this year, and that is a LOT of injuries to the starters. Other than that, the division win is a cake walk.
Now then, getting anywhere in the playoffs is a whole 'nother conversation.
I think 4-2 within the division for the Texans is the low end of expectations.
Going 4-2 or better within the division doesn't mean you win it but those teams will likely perform to the same standards against the rest of the league as they do against the Texans.
Really hard for me to believe the Jaq's , Tits or Dolts have what it takes to dethrone the Texans this year.
The Jaq's just suck , probably the worst QB play in the NFL.
The Tits .... they got better this offseason but Im not sold on their QB not to mention historically being one of the least disciplined teams in the league , I see them a distant third in the division.
The Dolts .... Yeah Luck is pretty good but I cant see that "team" playing as well as they did last year in what was an emotional season for them. They got worse defensively , didn't really think that was possible .... but they found a way.
The Texans may have gotten better both offensively and defensively - Hopkins looks to be a major upgrade over Walter & Greg Jones should be an upgrade over Casey at FB. Defensively you add a half of famer in Ed Reed .... They may be better on ST too as they added Lechler and Bullock who might be able to hit one from beyond 45 yards once in a while.
They aren't without concerns , most notably at the RG/RT spots & OLB with Barwin gone .... but having Cushing back is an improvement in itself.
We teams always have to be concerned with the health of the starting QB .... no matter what his name is , that name being Schaub makes me a bit more concerned than fans of some other teams.
Despite the questions , the Texans are clearly the most talented team in the division (and that's without any mention of JJ Watt).
Going 4-2 or better within the division doesn't mean you win it but those teams will likely perform to the same standards against the rest of the league as they do against the Texans.
Really hard for me to believe the Jaq's , Tits or Dolts have what it takes to dethrone the Texans this year.
The Jaq's just suck , probably the worst QB play in the NFL.
The Tits .... they got better this offseason but Im not sold on their QB not to mention historically being one of the least disciplined teams in the league , I see them a distant third in the division.
The Dolts .... Yeah Luck is pretty good but I cant see that "team" playing as well as they did last year in what was an emotional season for them. They got worse defensively , didn't really think that was possible .... but they found a way.
The Texans may have gotten better both offensively and defensively - Hopkins looks to be a major upgrade over Walter & Greg Jones should be an upgrade over Casey at FB. Defensively you add a half of famer in Ed Reed .... They may be better on ST too as they added Lechler and Bullock who might be able to hit one from beyond 45 yards once in a while.
They aren't without concerns , most notably at the RG/RT spots & OLB with Barwin gone .... but having Cushing back is an improvement in itself.
We teams always have to be concerned with the health of the starting QB .... no matter what his name is , that name being Schaub makes me a bit more concerned than fans of some other teams.
Despite the questions , the Texans are clearly the most talented team in the division (and that's without any mention of JJ Watt).
NastyNate
I go kerplunk
Statistics would completely refute your theory. Of the few handful of teams that have had a negative point differential and a winning record, every one of them has averaged 2 more losses the following year. Throw in the offensive coordinator jumping ship and losing Freeney, and you have an eventual submarine on your hands. Colts go 9-7 and miss the playoffs.
Texan_Bill
Hall of Fame
If y'all didn't answer the Texans, y'all are jacked up!!!
Although, the OP does bring up an interesting point about the Colts getting some, "somewhat calls"...
BTW, who in the EFF voted for the Jags?? I haven't seen Mootini on the boards for a while...
For those of you newer members, "Mootini" is a great contributor to TexansTalk that happens to be a Jags fan.
TREAT HIM WITH RESPECT!!!
*EDIT*
Treat him with respect, right up until becomes an ass!!
Although, the OP does bring up an interesting point about the Colts getting some, "somewhat calls"...
BTW, who in the EFF voted for the Jags?? I haven't seen Mootini on the boards for a while...
For those of you newer members, "Mootini" is a great contributor to TexansTalk that happens to be a Jags fan.
TREAT HIM WITH RESPECT!!!
*EDIT*
Treat him with respect, right up until becomes an ass!!
BullBlitz
Section 331
I hadn't heard of this stat until recently. Do you know how often this has happened, or when it has happened most recently except for last year's Colts?
Goldensilence
hipster elite
Texans by far are the most talented team on both sides of the ball.
Getting Cush back is going to be huge, while I am not couting on Reed to be an impact he could very well be if healthy. Defensively... Dear lord you think of the season Watt had and you think, he's going to come in the season healthy...we could see something really special next year. Newcomer on defense i am totally stoked for... Swearinger. This kid isis going to be great in that third safety/cover corner spot Quinm manned.
Offensively, if Hopkins gives the team a legit second outside target i expect the offense to have the ability to open up unlike previous years. If we get improved right side of the line play even bigger things.
As a qb, love Luck, but can that team really overachieve two years in a row?
Other two aren't really worth mentioning.
Getting Cush back is going to be huge, while I am not couting on Reed to be an impact he could very well be if healthy. Defensively... Dear lord you think of the season Watt had and you think, he's going to come in the season healthy...we could see something really special next year. Newcomer on defense i am totally stoked for... Swearinger. This kid isis going to be great in that third safety/cover corner spot Quinm manned.
Offensively, if Hopkins gives the team a legit second outside target i expect the offense to have the ability to open up unlike previous years. If we get improved right side of the line play even bigger things.
As a qb, love Luck, but can that team really overachieve two years in a row?
Other two aren't really worth mentioning.
SAMURAITEXAN
All Pro
Texans' D, please introduce yourselves again to Andrew with big hits.
Looking forward to your cooperation JJ, Ninja and others.
Looking forward to your cooperation JJ, Ninja and others.
BullBlitz
Section 331
badboy
Hall of Fame
So you are totally ignoring the last two seasons?A dynasty? There's nothing like the preseason.
Surely you are more up to date than your statement? There has been very good drafts, several pro bowlers, Foster/AJ & Watts extremely good seasons and other things such as the increase in depth that indicates a dynasty type team is being formed.
Scooter
Funky
i think it's fairly obvious, even without being biased.
let's just get the jags out now, they look almost void of talent.
the titans beefed up their offensive line, but unless CJ2YPC has an adrian peterson type season, it doesnt mean anything. the titan's quarterback play is pretty bad and they had a league worst 29.4 points allowed defensively ... 8-8 would be a successful season for them but expect closer to a repeat 6-10.
the colts win 2 games in 2011 and then jump to 9 in 2012 following some very unlikely breaks. they lost their coach, had the 21st ranked defense, and are still in a state of flux with a lot of roster movement. i cant see so many bounces going their way this year even if andrew luck performs well. a repeat 9 wins would be pushing it, i see 7 possibly stretching to 8 wins for the colts.
the texans are consistant with the same coach, coordinators, and core personnel. anchors were replaced with significant upgrades - walter with hopkins, casey with jones, and barwin with mercilus. there are still concerns such as the right side of the offensive line and the middle of the defense, but talent and depth abounds on both sides of the ball. a good year would be 14 wins, a bad would be 10 ... assuming health of course.
let's just get the jags out now, they look almost void of talent.
the titans beefed up their offensive line, but unless CJ2YPC has an adrian peterson type season, it doesnt mean anything. the titan's quarterback play is pretty bad and they had a league worst 29.4 points allowed defensively ... 8-8 would be a successful season for them but expect closer to a repeat 6-10.
the colts win 2 games in 2011 and then jump to 9 in 2012 following some very unlikely breaks. they lost their coach, had the 21st ranked defense, and are still in a state of flux with a lot of roster movement. i cant see so many bounces going their way this year even if andrew luck performs well. a repeat 9 wins would be pushing it, i see 7 possibly stretching to 8 wins for the colts.
the texans are consistant with the same coach, coordinators, and core personnel. anchors were replaced with significant upgrades - walter with hopkins, casey with jones, and barwin with mercilus. there are still concerns such as the right side of the offensive line and the middle of the defense, but talent and depth abounds on both sides of the ball. a good year would be 14 wins, a bad would be 10 ... assuming health of course.
BullBlitz
Section 331
I'm quite up to date, thanks. I think that the term "dynasty" means different things to different people. Regardless, I like seeing the high expectations.
I agree with BullBlitz. Most people wait until their second SuperBowl in a decade to start talking "Dynasty"
We haven't seen the inside of an AFC Championship game...... I think dynasty talk is a bit premature right now.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I went through the records and here's what I came up with...
In the past 10 years, there's been no team that went 11-5 with a negative point differential. The best record you can find with a winning record and a negative point differential is 9-7.
2004 Jags -- 9-7 to 12-4
2004 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 13-3
2005 Vikings -- 9-7 to 6-10
2006 Seahawks -- 9-7 to 10-6
2008 Cowboys -- 9-7 to 11-5
2011 Giants -- 9-7 to 9-7
As you can see, there is one case where the record got worse and one case where the record remained the same but 4 cases where the record improved.
BUT. That's starting from 9-7.
BUT! Why did the Colts have such a bad point differential? Because they got CRUSHED by the Patriots, Jets and Bears... mostly the Patriots.
TexansFTW
Veteran
I agree with everything you said except your bottom line. No way Colts exceed 8-8. I got bets with a lot of friends then will be 8-8 or worse, but I do agree with playoffs missed. The Steelers are gonna take back their playoff spot this year, and maybe even the Chargers.
TexansFTW
Veteran
Implications of a dynasty being built isn't saying "we have a dynasty". He said we are building one. Obviously it's not a dynasty yet, but it is positively BUILDING in the right direction.
In that regards, I can definitely agree. I like the way we are building. The results of this season will be the answer to it being built though.
eriadoc
Texan-American
Voted Texans. It's the obvious choice. So since that was so boring, I'll make the case for the Texans to lose it, just for kicks.
DEFENSE
Cushing doesn't come back 100% and as strong as everyone assumes. Injuries like that take time to recover, and he is just a step behind. Beside him, Sharpton/Reed/whoever they try at ILB is JAG, at best. Mercilus doesn't take that big step forward that so many seem to be counting on. The LB corps ends up no better than last year.
Ed Reed never suits up for the Texans, or if he does, he's not good. Brandon Harrison never comes around and everyone recognizes him for the bust he is. Kareem Jackson and JJo keep it together with Manning and Swearinger, but depth is an issue if any injuries pop up.
Antonio and JJ Watt continue their DL tag team on O-lines across the NFL, but the duo of Crick and Mitchell fares no better than the NT position over the last several years, so the defense up the middle continues to suffer. As a result, we get to watch Mitchell, Sharpton, and Ed Reed combine to miss tackles on guys like MJD.
OFFENSE
Matt Schaub picks up where he left off in 2012. That's probably enough to tank the offense, but if the RT/RG combo helps him out like they did last year and they continue to avoid throwing the ball to Foster, it becomes a fairly one dimensional offense. The receiving corps ought to be better, so that will be good enough to beat the Dolphins and Bengals of the world, but not the Packers, 49ers, and Patriots type teams.
DEFENSE
Cushing doesn't come back 100% and as strong as everyone assumes. Injuries like that take time to recover, and he is just a step behind. Beside him, Sharpton/Reed/whoever they try at ILB is JAG, at best. Mercilus doesn't take that big step forward that so many seem to be counting on. The LB corps ends up no better than last year.
Ed Reed never suits up for the Texans, or if he does, he's not good. Brandon Harrison never comes around and everyone recognizes him for the bust he is. Kareem Jackson and JJo keep it together with Manning and Swearinger, but depth is an issue if any injuries pop up.
Antonio and JJ Watt continue their DL tag team on O-lines across the NFL, but the duo of Crick and Mitchell fares no better than the NT position over the last several years, so the defense up the middle continues to suffer. As a result, we get to watch Mitchell, Sharpton, and Ed Reed combine to miss tackles on guys like MJD.
OFFENSE
Matt Schaub picks up where he left off in 2012. That's probably enough to tank the offense, but if the RT/RG combo helps him out like they did last year and they continue to avoid throwing the ball to Foster, it becomes a fairly one dimensional offense. The receiving corps ought to be better, so that will be good enough to beat the Dolphins and Bengals of the world, but not the Packers, 49ers, and Patriots type teams.
badboy
Hall of Fame
This is my point and maybe I should have been clearer. When I look at our roster I see a good balance of run vs pass with a star WR and several good other WRs including Hopkins. Tate if healthy should be great relief for Foster and I am a huge fan of Cierre Wood. DB is unbelievable and Myers is solid with a pretty good backup in Jones. I also think Brooks resolves RG issue & Newton has solid year.
Defense revolves around Cushing imo but if healthy should be better than last year. I think Wade has shown he can piecemeal the safety and ILB spots so adding Swearinger & Reed to a healthy Cush makes me smile.
If you build it (team) they (wins) will come.
NastyNate
I go kerplunk
I'll have to dig up the article, but I believe it was since the start of the superbowl era until now.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
When I included 8-8 as well as 9-7 records, it shifted a little so that it was negative but even then, if you treat it as an average, it's less than a game in the loss column..
Interesting... everything that can go wrong does.
I think we won 12 games last season because Kubiak wouldn't let the mistakes get away & snowball. But when the guys needed to play loose, when they needed to play fast... they couldn't & we got our butts handed to us vs GB & New England.
I think he lets it all hang out in 2013, & we break all kinds of total offense ratings, Andre, Arian, Matt are all at the top of their respective charts..... but we can't score.
We can't score & we can't stop the other team from scoring. We're back to 2010. We'll win 4 games outright. another 3 on a last minute "what the Hey, heay, hail Mary"
We lose another 7 games by one stinking play, or on a last minute interception, or we fail to convert a 4th down as time runs out, or we give up a last minute goal line stand..... the Texans mental toughness is once again in question & everyone is looking at the guy on the sideline with the hair.
Dec 29th, noon. The Texans square off on the road with the Tennessee Titans. They win this game, they win the division at 9-7, they go into the play-offs as the 4th seed. They lose, they go home.
Then it clicks. Schaub turns into the next Kurt Warner, Andre is Andre, Arian becomes a megastar, Jj Watt reminds everyone he is the best defensive player in the league, Jjo Kj, Reed, Manning, Swearinger, & McCain declare a no fly zone wherever they happen to be.... Kj & Swearinger are literally chopping heads, punishing anyone foolish enough to run anything deeper than 5 yard route.
We tear through the play offs. A juggernaut, blowing teams out 40 to 12 and the like. We win the Super Bowl. & we tear through the NFL the following 2 seasons.
Wolf
100% Texan
I picked the Texans. I know I am probably wrong as usual. I expect the colts to take a step back. Their record,to me, was just an anomaly that I can't do anything but shake my head at and say " They did it.. they did it somehow"
However this season they will be playing tougher opponents (or should be) so we will see
However this season they will be playing tougher opponents (or should be) so we will see
texanhead08
All Pro
I picked the Colts off just after the way the offense took a nosedive down the stretch and the lack of pass rush from anyone other than Watt. The schedule is much harder this year and the offense needs to really step its game back up this year to give me some confidence in this team again.
It was not good to see us having to throw on 3 and short late last year.
It was not good to see us having to throw on 3 and short late last year.
False Start
On # 69
Of course, I went with the Texans. I think the Colts will give them a run for their money though.
Texecutioner
Hall of Fame
Looks like I am one of the three that picked the COlts.
Although it was very tough and I went back and forth on it, and today I sort of think the Texans win it. It was that close for me honestly.
I picked the COlts though because of Luck. I had that much confidence in him coming into the league and he exceeded expectations. I feel like he is one of those QB's that can make his team over achieve and "believe" where they can sneak out a few extra wins on confidence as long as they aren't getting blown out.
The Texans are better all around on paper. However, the Colts are much better at the main position which is the QB position. I like Schaub and defended him a lot last season when a lot of people went way overboard in criticizing him where they acted like he was pure trash. But by the end of the season, Schaub's late season plunge simply could not be ignored. I still think that Schaub could have a pretty good season, but he simply won't ever be that QB that makes huge plays in big games consistently going forward in my eyes while Luck will. And that goes a long way.
And then you have the Kubiak factor where he plays not to lose so much and Gary has shown far to many times that his philosophy will cost this team games, and Gary won't learn from it. He is who he is, and I've accepted that. But it will take a super great QB to over come Gary's inefficiencies, and Schaub simply is not that guy. I could be wrong, and I certainly hope so, but it will take our defense being 2001 Baltimore Ravens like to get a ring with Schaub and Kubes in my opinion based off of what I've seen. I do believe in WATT though!!! Maybe Watt can bring it home.
Right now I'll switch back to the Texans for the division, but I might change it again tomorrow or in a few weeks. It's simply that close of a call.
Although it was very tough and I went back and forth on it, and today I sort of think the Texans win it. It was that close for me honestly.
I picked the COlts though because of Luck. I had that much confidence in him coming into the league and he exceeded expectations. I feel like he is one of those QB's that can make his team over achieve and "believe" where they can sneak out a few extra wins on confidence as long as they aren't getting blown out.
The Texans are better all around on paper. However, the Colts are much better at the main position which is the QB position. I like Schaub and defended him a lot last season when a lot of people went way overboard in criticizing him where they acted like he was pure trash. But by the end of the season, Schaub's late season plunge simply could not be ignored. I still think that Schaub could have a pretty good season, but he simply won't ever be that QB that makes huge plays in big games consistently going forward in my eyes while Luck will. And that goes a long way.
And then you have the Kubiak factor where he plays not to lose so much and Gary has shown far to many times that his philosophy will cost this team games, and Gary won't learn from it. He is who he is, and I've accepted that. But it will take a super great QB to over come Gary's inefficiencies, and Schaub simply is not that guy. I could be wrong, and I certainly hope so, but it will take our defense being 2001 Baltimore Ravens like to get a ring with Schaub and Kubes in my opinion based off of what I've seen. I do believe in WATT though!!! Maybe Watt can bring it home.
Right now I'll switch back to the Texans for the division, but I might change it again tomorrow or in a few weeks. It's simply that close of a call.
drs23
Veteran
Uhmm...I
BUT, Linda Evans' port nipp is about to put an ear out! Thanks for the stroll down memory lane. 
drs23
Veteran
Oh waiter...
...and make mine a double.
...and I'll have a DOUBLE, double. Rock-n-roll!
Seegara
Guitar Picker, Dog Lover, Woodworker
You have to remember that Schaub's hands were tied. Otherwise he'd have been much more effective.
Even a super great QB couldn't save the team if he wasn't allowed to adjust to the defense.
Head coach is undoubtedly the most important position on the team. Ever noticed how the Jaguars collapsed after they got rid of Jack del Rio?
It's interesting that Luck exceeded expectations, Schaub played below expectation, yet at the end of the day they turned in similar numbers.
DX-TEX
#TomSavageDontCare
I don't get all the hype for the Colts. I mean every site I hit they talk about how good the Colts are and seem to just ignore the abysmal stats from last year. Luck almost got killed and they didn't do much to strengthen the O line. Do I need to even mention the defense?? They played a last place schedule last year with a TON of emotion (rightfully so) from Paganos issues.
I think they come back to earth this year.
I think they come back to earth this year.
EVOLVIST
Kid A
TK...Their numbers are about as similar as the light bulb and the lightning bug.
Matt Schaub 64% completion
Andrew Luck 54% completion
Matt Schaub 90.7 QB rating
Andrew Luck 76.5 QB rating
The only things that are similar is that they threw for roughly the same amount of TDs and yards, but Schaub was better at doing it. Luck can run, and Schaub can't, sure, but Luck doesn't have the 2nd best RB in the league, either.
I don't see that they are that similar. Give me Nick Foles in a Texans uni and then we can talk similarities as both players grow into their own.