I want to address this again. If we were talking about the NBA Draft I’d lean more towards this line of thinking. There are only a handful of game changers in the NBA draft.
but in the NFL draft it’s not uncommon for the best player in the draft to be drafted outside the top 5 in every round
While true, the odds of drafting great players are increased with the higher picks and it's not just about 1-1 for me, it's more about being able to find above avg starting level players at 3-1 and 4-1 which are essentially 2nd/3rd rd round picks. Plus it gives you greater ability to move up and down the draft to get the players you want.