PFF Rankings: The NFL's top quarterbacks heading into Super Bowl LIV
BY STEVE PALAZZOLO
It’s PFF QB Annual season, a culmination of the very best quarterback breakdowns from the depths of the PFF database. The annual features a regular-season recap of 36 quarterbacks, all featured here, and we’ve added one key stat per signal-caller that is found within the guide. The quarterbacks are ranked by their current PFF grade through the first three weeks of the playoffs, and of course, the PFF grading system isolates the play of each quarterback on every play during the season. Here’s a look at the top quarterbacks in the NFL in 2019 as ordered by PFF grade.
1. RUSSELL WILSON, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The highest-graded passer with at least 300 attempts, Wilson had a spectacular season attacking down the field with his usual array of big-time throws while limiting turnover-worthy plays at the best rate of his career. As the season progressed, Wilson’s raw stats took a hit, but it was more due to what was happening around him rather than his throw-for-throw performance. He still takes too many sacks, including 14 that we directly charged his way, but Wilson is the catalyst to the Seattle offense, despite their desire to build a run-first attack. Throughout his career, Wilson has had many games in which he looked like a top-three quarterback but also a bevy of outings in which he was way off his game. In 2019, he posted the highest grade of his career, and for the first time, posted just one game grade that came in under 60.0.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Wilson finished with the No. 3 PFF grade from a clean pocket and he also ranked third under pressure.
2. PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Mahomes battled injuries from the get-go as he fought through an ankle injury starting in Week 1 and eventually missed some time with a knee injury. While the Chiefs' offense is still one of the most explosive units in the league, Mahomes took a slight step back from his 2018 MVP campaign. As tantalizing as Mahomes’ highlight reel is, perhaps most impressive in 2018 was that he rarely missed throws. In 2019, though, he saw a four-percentage point increase in negatively graded throws. Part of the regression may be chalked up to injuries, but regardless, Mahomes' talent and the Chiefs' system make up a dangerous offense. He is still more than capable of taking over games and moving the ball down the field in a hurry.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Fifty-nine percent of Mahomes’ targeted attempts were considered “open,” seven percentage points higher than the league average.
3. DREW BREES, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
A thumb injury cost Brees a chunk of the season, but he once again showed that he could spread the ball around accurately while consistently making good decisions. Brees earned his second straight 90.0-plus grade, avoiding negatives better than any other quarterback in the league. He did see a downtick in his big-time throws, and despite strong stats in the last two games of the season, he forced multiple passes down the field that
should have been intercepted but didn’t show up on the stat sheet. That’s the big question moving forward, as Brees still has the ability to lead an offense with his quick decision making and accuracy, but the downfield passing game was inconsistent this season. As such, there are concerns about Brees’ age and if he’ll be limited in the next year or two.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Brees ranked just 29th in big-time throw percentage, but he was fifth-best at avoiding turnover-worthy plays.
4. RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS
In one of the biggest
breakout seasons in history, Tannehill became one of the league’s best passers, dominating at all levels of the field. He more than doubled his percentage of positively graded throws from a year ago, which is a ridiculous feat, even in small sample sizes. Tannehill was accurate to all levels of the field and was the league’s best on 10-plus yard throws. His career year led the Titans to the No. 2 passing attack in EPA from the time he took over as starter through the end of the season. While Tannehill had settled in as a mid-tier starter in his first five years in the league, he was the league’s lowest-graded starter in 2018 before posting the top grade in 2019, the biggest one-season increase in the PFF era. His 2019 campaign was special, and it's one that will be difficult to duplicate.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Tannehill finished with the highest PFF grade from a clean pocket during the regular season.
© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
5. LAMAR JACKSON, BALTIMORE RAVENS
Outside of Tannehill, Jackson made the league's biggest stride as a passer, as he improved from a second-to-last ranking in catchable pass rate to 15th. The Ravens have built a perfect system to take advantage of Jackson’s unique skill set, and he subsequently led the league with 776 yards on designed runs and another 430 on scrambles. But it was Jackson’s improvement as a passer that turned the offense into the league’s best during the regular season. The threat Jackson presents as a runner creates better pass-blocking situations while also putting defenders’ heads on a swivel when trying to find the ball in the designed run game. It all adds up to an efficient run game and more open throws in the passing game. Jackson also cut down on his turnover-worthy plays, which is even more impressive given how often he handles the ball.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Jackson worked to his “next” read (second side of the field) 18% of the time, five percentage points higher than the league average. His 0.025 EPA per play was well above the league average of -0.06.
6. KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
After a slow start to the season and one of the worst games of his career in Week 2 against the Packers, Cousins turned things around to put together the best performance of his career and his second top-10 finish in PFF grading. He took to the Vikings’ outside zone/play action-heavy scheme, working well both inside and outside the pocket. Cousins was incredibly accurate at the intermediate (10 to 19 yards downfield) level, and he cut down on his turnover-worthy plays. The biggest improvement this season was his increase of 3.8 percentage points in positively graded throw rate, the third-highest mark in the NFL, and that's a credit to the system and supporting cast in Minnesota, even with their injury woes. Overall, it was a strong second season for Cousins, who improved his game and came through in big spots over the course of the year.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Cousins finished with the No. 4 PFF grade from a clean pocket, but he ranked just 23rd under pressure.
7. AARON RODGERS, GREEN BAY PACKERS
One of the biggest offseason questions centered around Rodgers playing in a new system, and even with a 13-3 record and first-round bye, Rodgers didn’t exactly answer those questions with flying colors. He finished with a solid grade but also had multiple poor games, and he even produced the lowest-graded outing of his career in Week 12. There’s no denying Rodgers’ talent — and he’s still one of the league’s best at hitting big-time throws and avoiding turnover-worthy plays — but the thing that has made Rodgers one of the best quarterbacks of all time is his ability to hit the “easy” throws and avoid negative plays. Those elements of his game have taken a step back in recent years, and that trend has now stretched across multiple systems. Perhaps Rodgers can get back to his top-three self, but he’ll have to improve his short and intermediate accuracy while cutting down on the pressure that he’s invited in recent years.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Rodgers had the 18th-best PFF grade from a clean pocket, but he ranked sixth when under pressure.
8. MATTHEW STAFFORD, DETROIT LIONS
In one of the biggest single-year transformations in recent memory, Stafford briefly returned to his best in 2019 before he lost his season due to injury. Stafford increased his average depth of target by over four yards per attempt, a massive improvement in offensive aggressiveness that led to the most efficient year of his career and the league’s highest percentage of big-time throws. He also saw the biggest jump in the percentage of positively graded throws outside of Ryan Tannehill, which led to the league’s sixth-most efficient passing attack while Stafford was on the field. He had fallen into more of a game manager mode in recent seasons, but Stafford and the Lions embraced a high-risk, high-reward style that led to more explosive plays but also a few more misses down the field. And if they continue down that path, the payout could be massive.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Twenty-seven percent of Stafford’s targets were into tight windows, eight percentage points higher than the league average.
9. DESHAUN WATSON, HOUSTON TEXANS
Watson continues to light up the highlight reels, but the week-to-week consistency still needs work. For the second straight year, Watson had six games that earned an 80.0-plus grade, and those are the games in which he looks like an MVP candidate capable of carrying a team. However, he also had three games that graded under 50.0, and those games usually involve poor ball security and taking too many sacks. Watson ranked among the league’s best in big-time throws once again, but in order to take the next step as a true MVP candidate, he must cut down on the faults that have plagued him to low game grades in the past. It’s a difficult balance, as Watson’s high-risk, high-reward style pays off more often than not, but it’s still leading to too many games in which his poor play is too much for Houston to overcome.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Watson averaged 0.17 EPA per play on scramble-drill passes, well above the league average of 0.02.
10. DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS
Prescott had his most productive season since his rookie year, as fresh play-calling and a full year of strong playmakers led to Dallas ranking third in the league with an EPA of 0.23 on passing plays. Prescott ranked among the middle class of quarterbacks in PFF grading in 2017 and 2018, and his 2019 campaign showed that the right supporting cast could lead to high-end production from mid-tier signal-callers. Prescott attacked down the field more than ever, leading to his No. 3 ranking in the league in passing yards on 20-plus yard throws, and he finished fourth in PFF rushing grade at 76.2. Overall, it was a good season for Prescott, who improved his positively graded throws, cut down on the negatives and showed that he could have a top-notch season when given a strong group of receivers.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Prescott averaged 0.26 EPA per dropback on “first read” throws, well above the league average of 0.07.
11. DEREK CARR, OAKLAND RAIDERS
It was a good season for Carr, who finished with the second-best PFF grade of his career. He ranked among the league’s best in accuracy and avoiding negatives while also doing a fine job of taking care of the ball despite a group of pass-catchers that was one of the biggest question marks in the league. Carr is more than capable of attacking down the field, but whether it’s the system, lack of playmakers or simply a conservative nature, Carr finished with the third-lowest average depth of target in the league (6.9). Even in games that saw the Raiders fall behind early, Carr rarely pushed the ball down the field. He has the velocity, touch and accuracy to create big plays, but Carr has profiled as more of a game manager in recent years. Perhaps an influx of playmakers can unlock the potential that he flashed in his highest-graded season in 2016.
Key Stat from QB Annual: Carr had the second-lowest percentage of negatively graded throws, but he finished just 27th in big-time throw percentage.
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