To have any semi-realistic hope, we must win out to finish 9-7. Here's who we're competing against:
Your current wildcards
Denver 8-5
Jacksonville 7-6
Denver still has Oakland and KC at home (and Philly on the road). In all likelihood, they are finishing at least 10-6. So they're one wildcard (or division champ if San Diego does a complete nose-dive).
Because we were swept by the Jags, they own the tiebreak. So we'll need them to lose twice. But they've got a tough closing schedule: Indy, at NE, at Cleveland. I think we'll get the losses we need from them.
Here's the other teams also in the hunt
N.Y.Jets 7-6
They own the tiebreaker over us because of week 1, so we need two losses. They close Atlanta, at Indy, Cincy. Another tough closing kick; hopefully the Colts and Bengals still have something to play for (though, for Indy, it may just be for an unbeaten season)
Miami 7-6
They're closing schedule is irrelevant to us aside from, of course, our game. If we win that one (and the other two), then Miami won't be the team to keep us out--we'll both be 9-7 and we'll have the tiebreaker. They could still get into the playoffs if we are in a three-way tiebreaker with, say, the Jets, but we'll need the Jets to finish 8-8 or worse under any scenario that would get us in.
Baltimore 7-6
This is the team that probably keeps a 9-7 Texan team out of the playoffs. If Baltimore finishes 2-1 for a 9-7 record, they'll own the tiebreaker over us because of a better conference record. So we need them to lose twice, but here's their closing: Chicago, at Pittsburgh, at Oakland.
Pittsburgh 6-7
I'm not sure how a tiebreaker would shake out between us and the Steelers because we'd both have the same conference record (6-6) if we finish 9-7. But with the way they are playing and their closing schedule, a 3-0 finish is unlikely: Green Bay, Baltimore, at Miami. And we'll need them to beat the Ravens if we are to have any realistic hope.
Tennessee 6-7
If we both get to 9-7, we'll own the tiebreaker because of a better conference record (6-6 versus 5-7). Like Miami, what they do from here on our is irrelevant to our playoff hopes.
One other team that may be worth watching:
New England 8-5
They currently lead the East, but only by a game over Miami and, more importantly for us, the Jets. If the Jets pass them (and we beat them), then we'll own the tiebreaker. But for the Jets to pull the trick off, they must lose once; but for us to then catch them, they'll need to lose twice. They close: at Buffalo, Jacksonville, at Houston. Of course, if they lose to the Jags, then that would knock us out Cleveland beats them in week 17.
If you want to know the most likely scenario, here it is:
Week 15
1. We beat St. Louis (if we can't beat the Rams, playoff are the least of our worries)
2. Indy beats the Jags (pretty much mandatory)
3. Atlanta beats the Jets (not mandatory, but most helpful)
4. Chicago beats Baltimore
5. Green Bay beats Pittsburgh (though this may not matter at all)
Week 16
1. We beat Miami
2. Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (pretty close to mandatory)
3. NE beats the Jags
4. Indy beats the Jets
Week 17
1. We beat New England
2. If the Jets have lost to either Atlanta or Indy (but not both), then Cincy beats the Jets.
3. If Baltimore has only lost one more game, then Oakland over Baltimore.
Piece of cake, right???