MorKnolle
All Pro
Despite what a lot of the national media seems to think, a lot of the vibes I've been getting lately from what little the Texans have actually been saying leads me to believe that Mario Williams is going to be their pick at #1, which will undoubtedly create a storm of trade talks in the next few picks, and I've put together a three-team trade that roughly balances out in terms of draft pick value points. This mock finally includes some trades, and some quite bold predictions at that, but here's how I see things going down on Saturday:
First trade, after the Texans take Mario Williams, the Jets cannot resist moving up to #2 to grab Reggie, and the Saints are looking for a reason to move down and grab Hawk. In order to move up, the Jets will give up #29 and #71 and get #135 pick back from the Saints.
Additionally, I don't think Kubiak's staff is particularly enamored with Domanick Davis being their #1 guy, and with the big 4 RBs being head and shoulders above the rest of the pack (Addai is fairly close), I could see the Texans making a move back into the end of the 1st round to grab one of them if available. That said, giving up our 4th round (#98) in addition to our 2nd (#33), that would put us right in the middle of the #26 and #27 picks, where according to my last mock and this one Laurence Maroney and LenDale White would both be available. That said, I think the Panthers would want to stay at #27 and grab LenDale, while the Bears would probably be more willing to trade down 7 spots since anyone they are looking at there would likely be available at #33, so I'm sending #33 and #98 to the Bears for #26, which may or may not be a popular decision among members of this board, but I can see it happening and I'm making that somewhat bold prediction now, although that will be dependent one of those RBs falling to that spot on draft day, otherwise they stay at #33.
Another trade that will come up, the Ravens at #13 would love Bunkley, Ngata, or Winston Justice, and in my mock all three of them are gone, and even though Cutler is available I think they are waiting for Steve McNair to be released and the Ravens have said they are willing to move back, and I think the Vikings will look to jump up 4 spots and grab Cutler rather than waiting for a later round prospect, so they give up one of their 3rds (#83) to move from #17 to #13.
The final trade that I came across, the Texans are looking to trade back with one of their 3rds, especially after sending their 4th to the Bears. The Rams need a LB, and at that point if the Texans stay at #66 they could take Abdul Hodge, so the Rams will give up their 3rd (#77) and 4th (#109) to move up and snag Hodge, who would have been a legitimate consideration for the Texans there anyway.
So that brings us back to the actual mock, and I'm following my gut instinct and am happy to pronounce that you heard it here first, "With the first pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select Mario Williams, defensive end from North Carolina State University."
1st Round
1) Houston Texans - Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State - The Texans get arguably the best player in this draft and get the guy that I think will be the biggest impact to their team, it will surprise most of the nation and cause a huge scramble of trade talks in the next hour or two after the pick.
2) New York Jets - Reggie Bush, RB, USC - The Jets won't be able to pass up the opportunity to move up two slots and grab Reggie Bush, putting the most marketable player in this draft in the biggest media market in North America and bringing in a dynamic RB to supplement/replace Curtis Martin.
3) Tennessee Titans - Matt Leinart, QB, USC - Floyd Reese prefers Vince but the coaching staff prefers Leinart, and rumors have bounced back and forth on who will win the argument, and in the end you hire a coaching staff to lead your team so it's pointless to override their preference as to who will be in charge of their offense.
4) New Orleans Saints - A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St. - The Saints need a lot of help on their team and LB is one of their biggest needs, and they've made no secret to the fact that he is their favorite player in this draft, and moving down ot #4 allows them better justify taking him.
5) Green Bay Packers - Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland - With Hawk gone and Javon Walker likely leaving the Packers will take a TE in Vernon Davis that is athletic enough to also play WR and give Favre another nice target on the field.
6) San Francisco 49ers - Michael Huff, CB/S, Texas - With Hawk and Vernon Davis both gone and being relatively solid at OT, the 49ers will take the best DB in the draft to help their defense out.
7) Oakland Raiders - Vince Young, QB, Texas - The Raiders need a future QB and Aaron Brooks is not the solution there. They will take the best QB available and grab Vince Young.
8) Buffalo Bills - D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia - The Bills are hoping Ferguson would somehow fall to them and he does, so their draft day dreams come true and they grab the best LT prospect in the draft.
9) Detroit Lions - Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon - With Dan Wilkinson maybe retiring, a runstopping DT. They still have Shaun Cody and Shaun Rogers but they are both more of penetrators than run stopper, and with Huff off the board Ngata is their man.
10) Arizona Cardinals - Winston Justice, OT, USC - Jay Cutler is definitely an option as the future replacement for Kurt Warner, but their OLine has been their biggest weakness and bringing in Justice allows them to move Leonard Davis back to OG where he is more effective and gives them a very large and very strong left side of their OLine that should protect the immobile Kurt Warner's blind side and open nice running lanes for Edgerrin James.
11) St. Louis Rams - Jimmy Williams - Cutler is another enticing prospect here as the future replacement of Marc Bulger and he will definitely receive a lot of consideration, but I think their secondary is a more immediate concern and Jimmy Williams can play either CB or S for them so I think he gets the nod.
12) Cleveland Browns - Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St. - Their defense needs a nice anchor up front and Bunkley gives them a player strong enough to play NT but easily athletic enough to play DE in their 3-4.
13) Minnesota Vikings - Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt - The Vikings definitely need a QB to learn under Brad Johnson for a year and get ready to step in, and the chance to move up just a few spots and grab Cutler rather than waiting until the 3rd round for Croyle, Whitehurst, Jacobs, or Clemens will appeal too much for them to resist.
14) Philadelphia Eagles - Ernie Sims, LB, Florida St. - Taking a WR will definitely be tempting, but Ernie Sims is just the type of LB that the Eagles like in their system as he can range sideline to sideline and get back in coverage as well, so in a bit of a surprise to some people I think the Eagles will take him with their 1st pick.
15) Denver Broncos - Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St. - I had them taking Chad Jackson in my last mock as Shanahan seems to prefer the bigger WRs, but after more consideration I think Holmes is still rated fairly significantly better than Jackson so I think they take him here.
16) Miami Dolphins - Jason Allen, CB/S, Tennessee - The Dolphins have some serious holes in their secondary, and Jason Allen can play either CB or S for them, plus Nick Saban has a lot of ties to the SEC and seems to like getting players from that conference, so Allen is their pick.
17) Baltimore Ravens - Tye Hill, CB, Clemson - The Ravens next biggest need other than FS and OT is at CB, and #13 was a little higher than they'd like for Hill and this pick is too high for Eric Winston/Marcus McNeill and Donte Whitner, so they get to move back a few spots from their original position and grab arguably the best pure CB in this draft.
18) Dallas Cowboys - Kamerion Wimbley, LB, Florida St. - The Cowboys need a S, but this is a little high for Donte Whitner and Kamerion Wimbley opposite of DeMarcus Ware would be a great combination at OLB, and Parcells has shown a tendency to build his defensive front seven before his DBs.
19) San Diego Chargers - Chad Jackson, WR, Florida - The Chargers really need another receiving threat in their offense and will happily take whoever is avilable between Chad Jackson and Santonio Holmes. If both these WRs are gone look for them to go after a CB or maybe Whitner.
20) Kansas City Chiefs - Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina - With Tye Hill gone I think they go for the next best pure CB in this draft and snag Johnathan Joseph.
21) New England Patriots - DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis - The Patriots lost some players this offseason that will need to be replaced, but with Corey Dillon getting older and experiencing some injury problems in the last couple years, DeAngelo Williams falling to them will be too much to resist.
22) San Francisco 49ers - Manny Lawson, LB, N.C. State - The 49ers lost most of their LB crew from last year, and with the two big WRs gone they will look to grab a player that will be a nice LB and provide some pass rush for their last-ranked overall and passing defense. Donte Whitner will also garner some thought, but I think Lawson is too good for their defense to pass up.
23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa - The Buccaneers need to improve their LB core and Greenway is one of if not the best coverage LB in the draft which is what their system calls for.
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Donte Whitner, S, Ohio St. - The Bengals need to fix up a few holes in their defense and could also look at TE, but Donte Whitner is the best value at this pick among positions of need for them, so he will be their pick.
25) New York Giants - Eric Winston, OT, Miami FL - The Giants need some OLine help and despite needing some DB and LB help as well they go with somewhat of a surprise pick here and grab Winston. Many teams don't really have Winston rated as a 1st rounder but they know he won't be around to their pick in the 2nd round so someone will take him here.
26) Houston Texans - Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota - A pretty nice option at RB, as big as Domanick Davis, a lot faster, good hands, ran behind a zone blocking scheme in college, has shown good durability while not getting completely worn out on volume of carries like DeAngelo Williams could be.
27) Carolina Panthers - LenDale White, RB, USC - Despite his lack of an impressive showing since the end of the season, I think DeShaun Foster's injury history is enough of a concern that they take what should be a very good power RB for them.
28) Jacksonville Jaguars - Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio St. - Fred Taylor is getting older and has had numerous seasons with injury problems, but with the big 4 RBs all gone and a definite need at OLB, Carpenter is a very solid option that fills that big need for them.
29) New Orleans Saints - Nick Mangold, C/G, Ohio St. - After losing LeCharles Bentley the Saints will be looking for their new C and Mangold is clearly the best in this draft.
30) Indianapolis Colts - Joseph Addai, RB, LSU - The Colts were getting real excited with Maroney on the board so long, but the Jets will dash their hopes. While I don't think Addai is worth a 1st round pick, after coming so close to getting Maroney and with such a drop off from Addai to the next teir of RBs I think the recent rumors will come true and the Colts will take Addai, and they should end up being pleased with him as he is the ideal type of RB for their offense.
31) Seattle Seahawks - Antonio Cromartie, CB/S, Florida St. - The Seahawks pass defense could use some help and Cromartie gives them a big option that can play CB or S well.
32) Pittsburgh Steelers - Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami FL - The Steelers could definitely look at CB (mainly Johnathan Joseph), but with Joseph getting so close to us at #33 I will have the Steelers taking Sinorice Moss to fill Antwaan Randle El's role minus the ability to throw the ball on trick plays.
First trade, after the Texans take Mario Williams, the Jets cannot resist moving up to #2 to grab Reggie, and the Saints are looking for a reason to move down and grab Hawk. In order to move up, the Jets will give up #29 and #71 and get #135 pick back from the Saints.
Additionally, I don't think Kubiak's staff is particularly enamored with Domanick Davis being their #1 guy, and with the big 4 RBs being head and shoulders above the rest of the pack (Addai is fairly close), I could see the Texans making a move back into the end of the 1st round to grab one of them if available. That said, giving up our 4th round (#98) in addition to our 2nd (#33), that would put us right in the middle of the #26 and #27 picks, where according to my last mock and this one Laurence Maroney and LenDale White would both be available. That said, I think the Panthers would want to stay at #27 and grab LenDale, while the Bears would probably be more willing to trade down 7 spots since anyone they are looking at there would likely be available at #33, so I'm sending #33 and #98 to the Bears for #26, which may or may not be a popular decision among members of this board, but I can see it happening and I'm making that somewhat bold prediction now, although that will be dependent one of those RBs falling to that spot on draft day, otherwise they stay at #33.
Another trade that will come up, the Ravens at #13 would love Bunkley, Ngata, or Winston Justice, and in my mock all three of them are gone, and even though Cutler is available I think they are waiting for Steve McNair to be released and the Ravens have said they are willing to move back, and I think the Vikings will look to jump up 4 spots and grab Cutler rather than waiting for a later round prospect, so they give up one of their 3rds (#83) to move from #17 to #13.
The final trade that I came across, the Texans are looking to trade back with one of their 3rds, especially after sending their 4th to the Bears. The Rams need a LB, and at that point if the Texans stay at #66 they could take Abdul Hodge, so the Rams will give up their 3rd (#77) and 4th (#109) to move up and snag Hodge, who would have been a legitimate consideration for the Texans there anyway.
So that brings us back to the actual mock, and I'm following my gut instinct and am happy to pronounce that you heard it here first, "With the first pick in the 2006 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans select Mario Williams, defensive end from North Carolina State University."
1st Round
1) Houston Texans - Mario Williams, DE, N.C. State - The Texans get arguably the best player in this draft and get the guy that I think will be the biggest impact to their team, it will surprise most of the nation and cause a huge scramble of trade talks in the next hour or two after the pick.
2) New York Jets - Reggie Bush, RB, USC - The Jets won't be able to pass up the opportunity to move up two slots and grab Reggie Bush, putting the most marketable player in this draft in the biggest media market in North America and bringing in a dynamic RB to supplement/replace Curtis Martin.
3) Tennessee Titans - Matt Leinart, QB, USC - Floyd Reese prefers Vince but the coaching staff prefers Leinart, and rumors have bounced back and forth on who will win the argument, and in the end you hire a coaching staff to lead your team so it's pointless to override their preference as to who will be in charge of their offense.
4) New Orleans Saints - A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio St. - The Saints need a lot of help on their team and LB is one of their biggest needs, and they've made no secret to the fact that he is their favorite player in this draft, and moving down ot #4 allows them better justify taking him.
5) Green Bay Packers - Vernon Davis, TE, Maryland - With Hawk gone and Javon Walker likely leaving the Packers will take a TE in Vernon Davis that is athletic enough to also play WR and give Favre another nice target on the field.
6) San Francisco 49ers - Michael Huff, CB/S, Texas - With Hawk and Vernon Davis both gone and being relatively solid at OT, the 49ers will take the best DB in the draft to help their defense out.
7) Oakland Raiders - Vince Young, QB, Texas - The Raiders need a future QB and Aaron Brooks is not the solution there. They will take the best QB available and grab Vince Young.
8) Buffalo Bills - D'Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia - The Bills are hoping Ferguson would somehow fall to them and he does, so their draft day dreams come true and they grab the best LT prospect in the draft.
9) Detroit Lions - Haloti Ngata, DT, Oregon - With Dan Wilkinson maybe retiring, a runstopping DT. They still have Shaun Cody and Shaun Rogers but they are both more of penetrators than run stopper, and with Huff off the board Ngata is their man.
10) Arizona Cardinals - Winston Justice, OT, USC - Jay Cutler is definitely an option as the future replacement for Kurt Warner, but their OLine has been their biggest weakness and bringing in Justice allows them to move Leonard Davis back to OG where he is more effective and gives them a very large and very strong left side of their OLine that should protect the immobile Kurt Warner's blind side and open nice running lanes for Edgerrin James.
11) St. Louis Rams - Jimmy Williams - Cutler is another enticing prospect here as the future replacement of Marc Bulger and he will definitely receive a lot of consideration, but I think their secondary is a more immediate concern and Jimmy Williams can play either CB or S for them so I think he gets the nod.
12) Cleveland Browns - Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St. - Their defense needs a nice anchor up front and Bunkley gives them a player strong enough to play NT but easily athletic enough to play DE in their 3-4.
13) Minnesota Vikings - Jay Cutler, QB, Vanderbilt - The Vikings definitely need a QB to learn under Brad Johnson for a year and get ready to step in, and the chance to move up just a few spots and grab Cutler rather than waiting until the 3rd round for Croyle, Whitehurst, Jacobs, or Clemens will appeal too much for them to resist.
14) Philadelphia Eagles - Ernie Sims, LB, Florida St. - Taking a WR will definitely be tempting, but Ernie Sims is just the type of LB that the Eagles like in their system as he can range sideline to sideline and get back in coverage as well, so in a bit of a surprise to some people I think the Eagles will take him with their 1st pick.
15) Denver Broncos - Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St. - I had them taking Chad Jackson in my last mock as Shanahan seems to prefer the bigger WRs, but after more consideration I think Holmes is still rated fairly significantly better than Jackson so I think they take him here.
16) Miami Dolphins - Jason Allen, CB/S, Tennessee - The Dolphins have some serious holes in their secondary, and Jason Allen can play either CB or S for them, plus Nick Saban has a lot of ties to the SEC and seems to like getting players from that conference, so Allen is their pick.
17) Baltimore Ravens - Tye Hill, CB, Clemson - The Ravens next biggest need other than FS and OT is at CB, and #13 was a little higher than they'd like for Hill and this pick is too high for Eric Winston/Marcus McNeill and Donte Whitner, so they get to move back a few spots from their original position and grab arguably the best pure CB in this draft.
18) Dallas Cowboys - Kamerion Wimbley, LB, Florida St. - The Cowboys need a S, but this is a little high for Donte Whitner and Kamerion Wimbley opposite of DeMarcus Ware would be a great combination at OLB, and Parcells has shown a tendency to build his defensive front seven before his DBs.
19) San Diego Chargers - Chad Jackson, WR, Florida - The Chargers really need another receiving threat in their offense and will happily take whoever is avilable between Chad Jackson and Santonio Holmes. If both these WRs are gone look for them to go after a CB or maybe Whitner.
20) Kansas City Chiefs - Johnathan Joseph, CB, South Carolina - With Tye Hill gone I think they go for the next best pure CB in this draft and snag Johnathan Joseph.
21) New England Patriots - DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis - The Patriots lost some players this offseason that will need to be replaced, but with Corey Dillon getting older and experiencing some injury problems in the last couple years, DeAngelo Williams falling to them will be too much to resist.
22) San Francisco 49ers - Manny Lawson, LB, N.C. State - The 49ers lost most of their LB crew from last year, and with the two big WRs gone they will look to grab a player that will be a nice LB and provide some pass rush for their last-ranked overall and passing defense. Donte Whitner will also garner some thought, but I think Lawson is too good for their defense to pass up.
23) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa - The Buccaneers need to improve their LB core and Greenway is one of if not the best coverage LB in the draft which is what their system calls for.
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Donte Whitner, S, Ohio St. - The Bengals need to fix up a few holes in their defense and could also look at TE, but Donte Whitner is the best value at this pick among positions of need for them, so he will be their pick.
25) New York Giants - Eric Winston, OT, Miami FL - The Giants need some OLine help and despite needing some DB and LB help as well they go with somewhat of a surprise pick here and grab Winston. Many teams don't really have Winston rated as a 1st rounder but they know he won't be around to their pick in the 2nd round so someone will take him here.
26) Houston Texans - Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota - A pretty nice option at RB, as big as Domanick Davis, a lot faster, good hands, ran behind a zone blocking scheme in college, has shown good durability while not getting completely worn out on volume of carries like DeAngelo Williams could be.
27) Carolina Panthers - LenDale White, RB, USC - Despite his lack of an impressive showing since the end of the season, I think DeShaun Foster's injury history is enough of a concern that they take what should be a very good power RB for them.
28) Jacksonville Jaguars - Bobby Carpenter, LB, Ohio St. - Fred Taylor is getting older and has had numerous seasons with injury problems, but with the big 4 RBs all gone and a definite need at OLB, Carpenter is a very solid option that fills that big need for them.
29) New Orleans Saints - Nick Mangold, C/G, Ohio St. - After losing LeCharles Bentley the Saints will be looking for their new C and Mangold is clearly the best in this draft.
30) Indianapolis Colts - Joseph Addai, RB, LSU - The Colts were getting real excited with Maroney on the board so long, but the Jets will dash their hopes. While I don't think Addai is worth a 1st round pick, after coming so close to getting Maroney and with such a drop off from Addai to the next teir of RBs I think the recent rumors will come true and the Colts will take Addai, and they should end up being pleased with him as he is the ideal type of RB for their offense.
31) Seattle Seahawks - Antonio Cromartie, CB/S, Florida St. - The Seahawks pass defense could use some help and Cromartie gives them a big option that can play CB or S well.
32) Pittsburgh Steelers - Sinorice Moss, WR, Miami FL - The Steelers could definitely look at CB (mainly Johnathan Joseph), but with Joseph getting so close to us at #33 I will have the Steelers taking Sinorice Moss to fill Antwaan Randle El's role minus the ability to throw the ball on trick plays.
but I also disagree with most all mocks (even my own) its the fluidity of the beast right up until the picks are officially announced.
