Fans like myself may never truly know the truth behind the sudden firing of general manager Brian Gaine. We all can only work off of the tidbits provided by the people who cover the team both locally and on a national level. Information from John McClain, Albert Breer, Patrick Starr, and others paint the picture of slow deterioration of alignment and trust. Alignment with the coaching staff and trust from ownership. The firing of Gaine does not appear to be based on one large egregious move or lack of a specific move. By most accounts Gaine had a specific long term game plan for the Texans’ roster and had full intentions of sticking to that plan. Gaine often spoke of being selectively aggressive while building through the draft. Such an approach requires patience and strict parameters.
For the 2018 offseason Gaine’s work could be identified as selectively aggressive. Gaine signed a large number of free agents to various length contracts along with retaining specific pending free agents. It was clear the Gaine did not want to overspend on a top tier free agent, opting to sign a bevy of tier two and tier three free agents. Followed by, all accounts, a successful 2018 draft class Gaine was off and running.
One area that Gaine struggled in 2018 was adapting the roster after multiple injuries in the secondary group. Some of this blame goes on O’Brien as it was ultimately his choice to shift Jackson from safety to cornerback and lean on the young depth at safety. Gaine and O’Brien should have shopped the secondary market a bit harder to backfill the depth at the position. An injury to one of your marque free agent signings is a tough pill for any general manager, especially a first year general manager. The Colvin and Henderson injuries may have been the match to light Gaine’s conservative nature away from his new selective aggressive persona.
Gaine made one more swing for the fence at the trade deadline with a trade for WR Demaryrius Thomas out of Denver. Gaine dealt a 2019 4th round selection in exchange for Thomas to bolster the wide receiver room after losing Will Fuller to an ACL injury. Gaine’s selective aggressiveness persona was once again shattered when Thomas injured his achilles late in the 2018 season. Another situation to add fuel to the conservative fire within Gaine.
After an early exit in the playoffs the 2019 offseason quickly approached with the team sitting on a bevy of cap dollars; with a fan base ready for the organization to get crazy aggressive in free agency. Only it didn’t happen. Gaine ended up with Bradley Roby on a one year $10 million contract as the marque free agent signing during the first wave of free agency. The front office handled the Kareem Jackson situation with poor flavor, specifically the team (reportedly) did not even speak to Jackson once during the free agency period. Despite the mixed feelings on Jackson’s 9 year career in Houston; teams should not treat players in that manner. A simple phone call with a message of “thanks for your work here, but we are going in a different direction” would have been more than sufficient.
Gaine attempted to outbid to retain Mathieu’s services before bowing out to Kansas City, submitted a low-ball offer to Trent Brown, and was out bid by Tennessee for Roger Saffold. Instead of selective aggressiveness, Gaine displayed a conservative nature wanting to sign players whom would not affect the compensatory draft pick formula. Was Gaine worried about signing another Colvin or Henderson? The conservative nature was creeping in through the back door.
Gaine remained relatively quiet through the remainder of the offseason, even with applying the franchise tag to Jadeveon Clowney. Signing Clowney should not be a difficult task. The market had been clearly identified with the signings of Flowers, Ford, Clark, and Lawrence. Clowney’s camp had to know what the market was as well, and likely knew that Khalil Mack was not the market Clowney would reach with Houston. Either Houston is bringing a low offer to the table or Clowney’s camp is bringing a Mack level deal to the table; but the suspicion is Houston is not coming close to the market set. Gaine was concerned with signing Clowney to a contract that would pay Clowney more than all-pro J.J. Watt. Gaine was concerned with the optics of the situation. Would signing Clowney to a $20+ million per year contract cause Watt to approach the team for a raise? Honestly I don’t think so, at least not in 2019. The conservative nature is starting to take over now.
The 2019 draft marked Gaine’s second effort through the draft process with zero draft day trades once again. During and after the draft there are mixed reports on which tackle Houston was truly targeting. Maybe the plan was to draft Howard all the way, and that is perfectly fine. The drafting of Howard, Scharping, Johnson, and Warring raised some concern through the fan base, and possibly through the ownership group. The two tackles came from small school programs, and Johnson and Warring had limited success in their college careers. Gaine drafted players with tools, versatility, and potential. That draft aligns with the long term plan that we discussed at the beginning of this piece.
Add up the failings of 2018 with the conservative game plan in 2019…the long game approach did not produce the same picture that Cal McNair had hoped to see. One thing is clear this is not the Bob McNair mentality running the organization. Cal McNair is expecting results sooner rather than later. Maybe the passing of his father coupled with an early playoff exit fueled Cal McNair into an aggressive mindset, a mindset and plan which did not align with Brian Gaine’s plan for the roster.
In the past three years Houston has routinely been in the bottom third of the league in cash spending. This is a routine which Gaine continued on with through the 2019 free agency period. The top spending teams are back at the top as usual, but a new crop of organizations have decreased their spending thrusting Houston up into the middle of the pack for 2019 cash spending. Gaine’s 5 year plan was likely a very solid plan, one he stuck to and had executed correctly through 18 months of the 60 month plan. But the NFL is a what have you done for me lately league, and that applies to GM’s as much as it does players.
No contract with Clowney, no aggressiveness in free agency, lack of pursuit in the trade market, shortened patience level with ownership, second highest available cap space…all while Deshaun Watson is playing on a rookie contract. That’s what happened.