Annual Carr Expectations Thread

[infantrycak]

Little early for this, but what the heck. Each year so far, Carr has performed better (at least stats wise) in the 1st half of the season than the 2nd half. Each year, my expectation (standard for judging his progress) is for him to beat not his annual performance from the last season, but his performance in the 1st 8 games.

Prior years (parentheticals give the projection over a full year):

2002

1st 8 games: 51.7 comp. %, 1387(2774) yds, 173.4 ypg, 6.7 ypa 7(14) TD's 8(16) Int's 68.2 QBR
Year: 52.4 comp. %, 2592 yds, 162 ypg, 5.8 ypa, 9 TD's, 15 INT's, 62.8 QBR

2003

1st 8 games: 59.8 comp. %, 1483(2966) yds, 211.9 ypg, 7.3 ypa, 6(12) TD's, 8(16) Int's, 75.7 QBR
Year: 56.6 comp. %, 2013 (injury) yds, 167.8 ypg, 6.8 ypa, 9 TD's, 13 Int's, 69.5 QBR

2004

1st 8 games: 64 comp. %, 2162(4324) yds, 270.3 ypg, 8.6 ypa, 9(18) TD's, 5(10) Int's, 95.1 QBR
Year: 61.2 comp. %, 3531 yds, 220.7 ypg, 7.6 ypa, 16 TD's, 14 Int's, 83.5 QBR.

There are some minor exceptions, but generally Carr has over a subsequent season exceeded his performance in the prior season's 1st 8 games. With that in mind, seems the bar for improvement this year should be set at Carr ending the year with numbers resembling or exceeding those from the 1st 8 games last year:

1st 8 games: 64 comp. %, 2162(4324) yds, 270.3 ypg, 8.6 ypa, 9(18) TD's, 5(10) Int's, 95.1 QBR

My guess is the completion % may go up 1-3 points, the yards will most likely come down some, hopefully the ypa remains the same or improves slightly and the TD's go up some with QBR staying about the same (less yards but more TD's).

Now to make this post irrelevant, those stats would match up favorably with playoff QB's from last year, but of course don't tell the story of the intangibles of when he made the smart decision, whether the TD or the INT was what really counted and how the rest of the team played. Nonetheless, that's the hurdle for him to cross IMO.

 

[BornOrange]

I also look for Carr to match or improve on his 2004 first half season performance. The main areas for me are increasing his TD passes and keeping the interceptions low. A final ratio of 18+ TD's and 10 INT's would be really good.

The other areas I would concentrate on would be third down conversions and red zone efficiency. The Texans need more prolonged drives to be able to score more points and once they get the ball inside the 20 they need to be able to move the ball well enough to score TD's.

 

[TEXANRED]

I see Carr staying around the mid 60% for completion rate for both first half and second half, throws 11 TD for the first half and 10 in the second half, he throws 9 ints for the whole year fumbles 2 and rushes for 375 yards scoring 3 TD's while throwing either at or near 3,900 yards.

And on a side note the Texans go 10-6 and make the playoffs, not because of Carr but for the first time all 22 men out on the field will be on the same page.

But i wouldnt take any of that to Vegas.

 

[AcresHomesTexan]

Honestly, for the type of team the texans are building, some of Carr's stats don't have to improve greatly...The biggest hurdle for him is to become more consistent, making better decisions. Some that won't be reflected in stats.

Carr-
percentage 62.5%, 235 yards per game, 7.5 ypa 22TDs, 10Ints...think this will bring his rating to somewhere around 90 which is the stuff of a solid, quality NFL QB and is very obtainable.

The number he has some effect on, but is largely out his control less than 40 sacks.

 

[Nawzer]

If we're not talking about Carr's hair by the half way mark I think that's a sign that he's having a good season...hehe.

 

[stephen1]

if carr can cut down red zone mistakes we will be fine

 

[TexanExile]

Well, he starts against Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Couldn't ask for bigger tests! It'll be a real challenge for him to play statistically top-notch in those games. I'd just be happy with "ugly" wins, obviously--especially against the Steelers. But the idea of McGahee running wild against a "retooled" Texans defense makes me sweat a little right now. The offense really needs to be able to light it up and limit the mistakes.

He has lots of weapons and a few years under his belt. I don't need Carr to be a top-5 rated passer to call him a success in 2005. I just need him to put the team on his shoulders and drag them to a win or two when things look bleak--and to cut back on the INTs.

 

[nunusguy]

Since we still don't have a legit TE and we don't have a legit #2 threat to
go along with AJ, our receiving corps is only mediorce and wouldn't be
that if we didn't have AJ to bring up the average. Maybe one of the younger WRs or the FA TE will emerge and surprise us but if not, I'm not too optimistic about DC having a strong year in passing stats.

 

[Vinny]

In the AFC only Peyton Manning, Trent Green, Jake Plummer and Tom Brady threw for more yards than David Carr last year. Jabar Gaffney led the team in YPC last year and had the longest play from scrimmage last year as well. Carr and Johnson are both on upward curves statistically and both are just now approaching their primes. The offensive line will not have new starters across the board for the very first time ever. Last year they incorporated 4 new position players from Tackle to TE. People want change, but stability and core player growth will keep the Texans offense evolving into a pretty fair unit this next season. AJ is being used in shorter routes and the team is changing its protections as the offense has let its young players grow as a unit into a veteran squad over the first few seasons. Capers will have Carr throw more into the end zone as Carr proves he can do it, not because he won't. I see a pretty substantial year coming up.

3800-4000 yards 18-20 TD's and 11-15 INT's

 

[Big B Texan Fan]

If we're not talking about Carr's hair by the half way mark I think that's a sign that he's having a good season...hehe.

Maybe he'll promise to cut it back to normal if they start the season 2-0. Just kidding, I could really care less

 

[Davis37]

Im glad we are going to the timing routes. With these short routes, an athletic freak of nature like AJ can catch a quick slant or drag route and take it all the way. I think it will help Carr's stats out, while keeping the INT's down.

 

[El Tejano]

Keep in mind an emphasis on the running game will be alot stronger this year.

 

[Lucky]

Keep in mind an emphasis on the running game will be alot stronger this year.

A lot stronger? The Texans were 9th highest in Run/Pass ratio at 48/52 (Runs/(Passes + Sacks). If they Texans place more emphasis on the running game, they might as well try the triple option.

Here are some stats that may only interest me. The ranked 16th in the NFL in a stat I'd call Pass yards/Total attempts (6.2 net yards/Pass play). That would be (Pass Yards+Sack yards lost)/(Pass attempts+Sacks). So even given that the Texans were one of the most sacked teams in the league, their passing game was average. On the other hand, the Texans ranked 23th in Rushing Yards/Rushing attempt (3.9 yards/rush). So in relation to the rest of the NFL, the Texans were a better passing team than running team in '04.

So you could look at that & say "The Texans need to pass more!". But, David Carr isn't just a stat line. He's a person with bones & tendons that can be damaged via the QB sack. Unless the Pass play/sack average goes down (10.6 pass plays/sack, 29th in the NFL), the Texans can't really afford to ramp up the passing game. It's the same story we've heard over & over & over again...for this offense to take off, the pass blocking must improve. If & when that happens, David Carr & the Texans passing game stats could go through the roof.

 

[Doom Capers]

Yeah, but you all have to realize that once we are in the Red Zone, 9 out of 10 times DD will punch it in without a problem. That will take down some of Carr's td passes. Carr threw for a lot of yardage last year without an O-line, which makes me feel somewhat better. I am more worried about Carr getting getting hit too many times, than him throwing for a lot of yardage.

 

[MojoMan]

A lot stronger? The Texans were 9th highest in Run/Pass ratio at 48/52 (Runs/(Passes + Sacks). If they Texans place more emphasis on the running game, they might as well try the triple option.

Here are some stats that may only interest me. The ranked 16th in the NFL in a stat I'd call Pass yards/Total attempts (6.2 net yards/Pass play). That would be (Pass Yards+Sack yards lost)/(Pass attempts+Sacks). So even given that the Texans were one of the most sacked teams in the league, their passing game was average. On the other hand, the Texans ranked 23th in Rushing Yards/Rushing attempt (3.9 yards/rush). So in relation to the rest of the NFL, the Texans were a better passing team than running team in '04.

Based on the statistics that you quoted, especially the 23rd in the league with 3.9 yards/rush, it appears that the run blocking is actually what needs to improve moreso than the pass blocking. Of course the sacks need to be reduced in the passing game, but at 16th in the league in pass yards per pass play, this is a platform that can be built on. Also, as I recall, Carr's passing yards and his TD to interception ratio both improved nicely last year. Perhaps a second year with the same lineup, and a second year's experience using the zone blocking scheme will help the Texan's to improve their run blocking.

 

[infantrycak]

Based on the statistics that you quoted, especially the 23rd in the league with 3.9 yards/rush, it appears that the run blocking is actually what needs to improve moreso than the pass blocking.

There was a huge divide between the 1st half and 2nd half of the season last year in terms of the running game's efficiency. Over the 2nd half of the season DD was clipping off 4.6 ypc which if it were the team average would have tied the Texans for 3rd in the league. (Don't have a split stat for the Texans as a whole but DD is a good enough proxy to get the idea.) If the run blocking will come back
as it was in the 2nd half of the season, the running game should be solid.

 

[cred]

Me personally, I think DC will pass for about the same amount of yards but his comp. % should go up just because of the shorter passes and timing routs. I would also expect to his TD-to-INT ratio be about 2.5-1 (25 TD, 10 INT). I don't see why this can't be a truthful equation considering the timing plays along with a mixture of play-action in conjunction with throwing down the field.

quaterback rating of 98.5
with
less sacks and chances of injury

 

[mmontgo]

I love the stat machines as it really brings a good picture in focus, but......

bottomline: improved red zone passing, we need downfield action and crossing patters sideline to sideline. I think Carr is very very capable of throwing for 4000+ yards and 25 TDs, if he gets time.....I am not saying it is all OL, but I saw there were a late of QB rushes last year....

Now, the reality: we are tinkering with the line and that is trouble! No playoff offensive line gets tinkered with as much as we are seeing..this is the same as patchwork. We are talking center to guard, guard back to tackle, tackle to guard, rookie center, and signing other team's throwaway lineman...this is going to be the biggest source of frustration for Carr and the rest of the team this year...

and, I hope Carr can overcome this, because people are going to start blaming him if we are less than wildcard....

Put Carr behind lines like New England, Jax, Indy, Pittsburgh, St. Louis...etc. He is a 4000 yard passer imho...

 

[NoBullTexan]

Carr doesn't have that kind of pressure on him. Why should he? If anyone is under the gun it is Capers and Palmer for their gameplanning and playcalling. Carr just does what he is told. Wildcard? That's a little harsh, mon! 9-7 will be decent. 10-6, and you might be talking wildcard.

 

[TEXANRED]

Carr doesn't have that kind of pressure on him. Why should he? If anyone is under the gun it is Capers and Palmer for their gameplanning and playcalling. Carr just does what he is told. Wildcard? That's a little harsh, mon! 9-7 will be decent. 10-6, and you might be talking wildcard.

Agreed. Well at least with palmer anyway. If the blocking dosent improve you can bet palmer will be gone.

 

[Big B Texan Fan]

Agreed. Well at least with palmer anyway. If the blocking dosent improve you can bet palmer will be gone.

As long as they show improvement and win 8-9 games with the majority of their losses falling on the D, Palmers' job is safe for one more year.
If there is a catostrphe and win less than eight and Carr gets injured due to some sack issues, he could be offed.
All in all, I think both coordinators are safe @ least another year as long as the status quo is up held. Some fans will be calling for a firing with an 8-8 record or even 9-7 if the playoffs aren't reached.
A 4-0 finish won't hurt job security either.