Texan in Japan
Rookie
Although we've still got the combine and individual work-outs to go, most of the scouts have done the film work they've needed to eval the top prospects. Interviews and drills will help them tweak their rankings, but as we all look at possibilities for our pick, I think with the 19th or 20th pick we'll get a great player. I think we'll also have the opportunity to move down into the latter part of round one or early 2nd to pick-up extra picks. With that said, here our my targets for us at 19-20 and then if we decide to trade down to late 1st or early 2nd.
Assumptions: Besides Suh/McCoy who should go in the top 5, I believe at least 2 of these 3 will be gone--Dan Williams, Brian Price and Terrance Cody by the time we pick. There are some also very good DEs that should go before our pick to include: Derrick Morgan, Carlos Dunlap and Jason Piere-Paul. Rolando McClain appears to be this year's stud LB, but 3/4 team might fall in love w/ Sergio Kindle or Sean Weatherspoon could sneak up, but more than likely they'll be available. Joe Haden is only sure fire CB gone by #19 and it seems that Eric Berry will be selected in top 5-10 picks. After those two, debate will wage over Taylor Mays and Earl Thomas...w/ the latter probably having the best chance of going before our pick. The WR that should go before our pick is Dez Bryant. From a RB perspective, I think CJ Spiller and Jonathan Dwyer have the best shot at going before our pick. QB seems to have Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen as #10 picks. There are 5-6 OTs that could go in the first and 5 may go before we pick--Okung, Anthony Davis, Bulaga, Trent Williams and Bruce Campbell. I was all excited about Iupati, but then he looked awful in the Senior Bowl, not sure if he had off day or was overmatched by the better competition...he'll need to do some catch-up to move into the top 20. However, I do think a guy like Maurkice Pouncey could rise and slip into top 20, but believe he won't.
Players at 19/20:
MORE LIKELY AVAILABLE
Jared Odrick-DT: Great size and strength...height and long arms make him an ideal candidate to play the 5 technique in a 3-4 defensive front. Odrick is powerful in his upper and lower body, has a mean bull rush and can get penetration with a nice swim move. Against the run, he handles double teams and has the ability to anchor the point of attack. He uses his hands well to disengage from the blockers to get to the ball carrier and possesses a good burst from the snap to penetrate and get after the QB from the 3 tech. Jolts offensive lineman with a powerful punch and is a hustler who plays to the whistle. An extra value because of his versatility and ability to play a number of positions on the defensive line.
COMMENT: Sounds like the type of DT our DL coach likes. Maybe a poor man's Richard Seymour. Someone we should begin to pay attention to.
Taylor Mays-S: Outstanding size with speed. Likes to come up and hit and will deliver a knockout punch, but doesn't wrap up to finish the ball carrier. Should shine at the Combine with his speed and athletism.
COMMENT: Has body of Adonis and speed of Mercury, but are his intangibles sound? Was USC using him in a role that limited his production? We did great with last USC #1, Mays and Pollard would scare the crap out of WRs coming over the middle, but can he be the playmaker we need? A lot of questions here.
Jonathan Dwyer - RB: Dwyer has ideal size/speed ratio for a RB in the NFL. A true workhorse back because he's durable and able to break tackles. Dwyer shows good quickness and the ability to hit top speed quickly, making him a breakaway threat. Keeps his pad level low and takes care of the ball. He's a grinder who keeps his legs churning after contact. Dwyer has great balance. Didn't get a lot of experience blocking or receiving and he didn't play in a pro-style offense.
COMMENT: This could be our franchise back and a ace for Kubiak to call on to grind out the tough yards when we need them.
LESS LIKELY AVAILABLE, BUT TEMPTING
Earl Thomas - S/CB: With his phenomenal ball skills and speed, Earl would be a welcome additional. However, his skills are so good he'll probably grade out as a potential #1 CB and a close 2nd to Eric Berry as #2 FS. With most CBs falling far below Haden, Earl could emerge as next best option. Because of that, I doubt he'll be there, but if he is, then its a triple bonus--another playermaker to defense, we fill a need and UT homers have someone to cheer for on the Texans (marketing can never be overlooked).
COMMENT: We need more playmakers and he's one of the best on defense.
Terrance Cody - NT: Massive body with good agility...at 365+ lbs, requires double-teaming based on his size, strength and ability to move OL. He's not just big, he has a lot of ability too and can move surprisingly well for someone his size. He clogs up running lanes and has enormous potential and upside. Conditioning is an issue, but that is with all monsters in the middle.
COMMENT: I expect him to go because of the Bill Parcell theory about only so many large humans in the world. TC has game and with the right coaching, he'll excell in the NFL. Doubt he makes it to us, but if he does, wow I'd be very tempted...not sure Texans will though.
Of these 5, I'd prioritize Thomas, Dwyer, Odrick and Cody...not sure I'd take Mays at this point.
I'll look at a some players we think about if we trade down to the 24-30 range and pick-up extra picks in a bit.
Let me know what you think and if you agree or disagree with my thoughts.
Assumptions: Besides Suh/McCoy who should go in the top 5, I believe at least 2 of these 3 will be gone--Dan Williams, Brian Price and Terrance Cody by the time we pick. There are some also very good DEs that should go before our pick to include: Derrick Morgan, Carlos Dunlap and Jason Piere-Paul. Rolando McClain appears to be this year's stud LB, but 3/4 team might fall in love w/ Sergio Kindle or Sean Weatherspoon could sneak up, but more than likely they'll be available. Joe Haden is only sure fire CB gone by #19 and it seems that Eric Berry will be selected in top 5-10 picks. After those two, debate will wage over Taylor Mays and Earl Thomas...w/ the latter probably having the best chance of going before our pick. The WR that should go before our pick is Dez Bryant. From a RB perspective, I think CJ Spiller and Jonathan Dwyer have the best shot at going before our pick. QB seems to have Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen as #10 picks. There are 5-6 OTs that could go in the first and 5 may go before we pick--Okung, Anthony Davis, Bulaga, Trent Williams and Bruce Campbell. I was all excited about Iupati, but then he looked awful in the Senior Bowl, not sure if he had off day or was overmatched by the better competition...he'll need to do some catch-up to move into the top 20. However, I do think a guy like Maurkice Pouncey could rise and slip into top 20, but believe he won't.
Players at 19/20:
MORE LIKELY AVAILABLE
Jared Odrick-DT: Great size and strength...height and long arms make him an ideal candidate to play the 5 technique in a 3-4 defensive front. Odrick is powerful in his upper and lower body, has a mean bull rush and can get penetration with a nice swim move. Against the run, he handles double teams and has the ability to anchor the point of attack. He uses his hands well to disengage from the blockers to get to the ball carrier and possesses a good burst from the snap to penetrate and get after the QB from the 3 tech. Jolts offensive lineman with a powerful punch and is a hustler who plays to the whistle. An extra value because of his versatility and ability to play a number of positions on the defensive line.
COMMENT: Sounds like the type of DT our DL coach likes. Maybe a poor man's Richard Seymour. Someone we should begin to pay attention to.
Taylor Mays-S: Outstanding size with speed. Likes to come up and hit and will deliver a knockout punch, but doesn't wrap up to finish the ball carrier. Should shine at the Combine with his speed and athletism.
COMMENT: Has body of Adonis and speed of Mercury, but are his intangibles sound? Was USC using him in a role that limited his production? We did great with last USC #1, Mays and Pollard would scare the crap out of WRs coming over the middle, but can he be the playmaker we need? A lot of questions here.
Jonathan Dwyer - RB: Dwyer has ideal size/speed ratio for a RB in the NFL. A true workhorse back because he's durable and able to break tackles. Dwyer shows good quickness and the ability to hit top speed quickly, making him a breakaway threat. Keeps his pad level low and takes care of the ball. He's a grinder who keeps his legs churning after contact. Dwyer has great balance. Didn't get a lot of experience blocking or receiving and he didn't play in a pro-style offense.
COMMENT: This could be our franchise back and a ace for Kubiak to call on to grind out the tough yards when we need them.
LESS LIKELY AVAILABLE, BUT TEMPTING
Earl Thomas - S/CB: With his phenomenal ball skills and speed, Earl would be a welcome additional. However, his skills are so good he'll probably grade out as a potential #1 CB and a close 2nd to Eric Berry as #2 FS. With most CBs falling far below Haden, Earl could emerge as next best option. Because of that, I doubt he'll be there, but if he is, then its a triple bonus--another playermaker to defense, we fill a need and UT homers have someone to cheer for on the Texans (marketing can never be overlooked).
COMMENT: We need more playmakers and he's one of the best on defense.
Terrance Cody - NT: Massive body with good agility...at 365+ lbs, requires double-teaming based on his size, strength and ability to move OL. He's not just big, he has a lot of ability too and can move surprisingly well for someone his size. He clogs up running lanes and has enormous potential and upside. Conditioning is an issue, but that is with all monsters in the middle.
COMMENT: I expect him to go because of the Bill Parcell theory about only so many large humans in the world. TC has game and with the right coaching, he'll excell in the NFL. Doubt he makes it to us, but if he does, wow I'd be very tempted...not sure Texans will though.
Of these 5, I'd prioritize Thomas, Dwyer, Odrick and Cody...not sure I'd take Mays at this point.
I'll look at a some players we think about if we trade down to the 24-30 range and pick-up extra picks in a bit.
Let me know what you think and if you agree or disagree with my thoughts.