19-20 Could be a sweet spot in this draft

Discussion in 'College Football & the NFL Draft' started by Texan in Japan, Feb 7, 2010.

  1. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    Although we've still got the combine and individual work-outs to go, most of the scouts have done the film work they've needed to eval the top prospects. Interviews and drills will help them tweak their rankings, but as we all look at possibilities for our pick, I think with the 19th or 20th pick we'll get a great player. I think we'll also have the opportunity to move down into the latter part of round one or early 2nd to pick-up extra picks. With that said, here our my targets for us at 19-20 and then if we decide to trade down to late 1st or early 2nd.

    Assumptions: Besides Suh/McCoy who should go in the top 5, I believe at least 2 of these 3 will be gone--Dan Williams, Brian Price and Terrance Cody by the time we pick. There are some also very good DEs that should go before our pick to include: Derrick Morgan, Carlos Dunlap and Jason Piere-Paul. Rolando McClain appears to be this year's stud LB, but 3/4 team might fall in love w/ Sergio Kindle or Sean Weatherspoon could sneak up, but more than likely they'll be available. Joe Haden is only sure fire CB gone by #19 and it seems that Eric Berry will be selected in top 5-10 picks. After those two, debate will wage over Taylor Mays and Earl Thomas...w/ the latter probably having the best chance of going before our pick. The WR that should go before our pick is Dez Bryant. From a RB perspective, I think CJ Spiller and Jonathan Dwyer have the best shot at going before our pick. QB seems to have Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen as #10 picks. There are 5-6 OTs that could go in the first and 5 may go before we pick--Okung, Anthony Davis, Bulaga, Trent Williams and Bruce Campbell. I was all excited about Iupati, but then he looked awful in the Senior Bowl, not sure if he had off day or was overmatched by the better competition...he'll need to do some catch-up to move into the top 20. However, I do think a guy like Maurkice Pouncey could rise and slip into top 20, but believe he won't.

    Players at 19/20:
    MORE LIKELY AVAILABLE
    Jared Odrick-DT: Great size and strength...height and long arms make him an ideal candidate to play the 5 technique in a 3-4 defensive front. Odrick is powerful in his upper and lower body, has a mean bull rush and can get penetration with a nice swim move. Against the run, he handles double teams and has the ability to anchor the point of attack. He uses his hands well to disengage from the blockers to get to the ball carrier and possesses a good burst from the snap to penetrate and get after the QB from the 3 tech. Jolts offensive lineman with a powerful punch and is a hustler who plays to the whistle. An extra value because of his versatility and ability to play a number of positions on the defensive line.
    COMMENT: Sounds like the type of DT our DL coach likes. Maybe a poor man's Richard Seymour. Someone we should begin to pay attention to.

    Taylor Mays-S: Outstanding size with speed. Likes to come up and hit and will deliver a knockout punch, but doesn't wrap up to finish the ball carrier. Should shine at the Combine with his speed and athletism.
    COMMENT: Has body of Adonis and speed of Mercury, but are his intangibles sound? Was USC using him in a role that limited his production? We did great with last USC #1, Mays and Pollard would scare the crap out of WRs coming over the middle, but can he be the playmaker we need? A lot of questions here.

    Jonathan Dwyer - RB: Dwyer has ideal size/speed ratio for a RB in the NFL. A true workhorse back because he's durable and able to break tackles. Dwyer shows good quickness and the ability to hit top speed quickly, making him a breakaway threat. Keeps his pad level low and takes care of the ball. He's a grinder who keeps his legs churning after contact. Dwyer has great balance. Didn't get a lot of experience blocking or receiving and he didn't play in a pro-style offense.
    COMMENT: This could be our franchise back and a ace for Kubiak to call on to grind out the tough yards when we need them.

    LESS LIKELY AVAILABLE, BUT TEMPTING
    Earl Thomas - S/CB: With his phenomenal ball skills and speed, Earl would be a welcome additional. However, his skills are so good he'll probably grade out as a potential #1 CB and a close 2nd to Eric Berry as #2 FS. With most CBs falling far below Haden, Earl could emerge as next best option. Because of that, I doubt he'll be there, but if he is, then its a triple bonus--another playermaker to defense, we fill a need and UT homers have someone to cheer for on the Texans (marketing can never be overlooked).
    COMMENT: We need more playmakers and he's one of the best on defense.

    Terrance Cody - NT: Massive body with good agility...at 365+ lbs, requires double-teaming based on his size, strength and ability to move OL. He's not just big, he has a lot of ability too and can move surprisingly well for someone his size. He clogs up running lanes and has enormous potential and upside. Conditioning is an issue, but that is with all monsters in the middle.
    COMMENT: I expect him to go because of the Bill Parcell theory about only so many large humans in the world. TC has game and with the right coaching, he'll excell in the NFL. Doubt he makes it to us, but if he does, wow I'd be very tempted...not sure Texans will though.

    Of these 5, I'd prioritize Thomas, Dwyer, Odrick and Cody...not sure I'd take Mays at this point.

    I'll look at a some players we think about if we trade down to the 24-30 range and pick-up extra picks in a bit.

    Let me know what you think and if you agree or disagree with my thoughts.
     
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  2. Imatexanfan

    Imatexanfan Hall of Fame

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    Good read but I would really like to pick up Eric Berry rather than Thomas imo...
     
  3. Corrosion

    Corrosion Idealist

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    I think most people would (even us Longhorn fans) - But No one wants to give up what it would take to move up far enough to get him (Likely top 5). Nor do I want to see the team have to pay top 5 $$$.

    Thomas at 20 is a better value than Berry at 5.
     
  4. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    The coin flip w/Atlanta will be for the #2 rated CB in the draft that's not even on your watch list.
     
  5. rmartin65

    rmartin65 I'm Score

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    Cody is the most overhyped player in the draft. Big fat guys do not have a place in football.
     
  6. BSofA04

    BSofA04 Hall of Fame

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    I don't know what to think about Cody. There's been a lot of discussion on how he's only a two down player before having to come out for a breather. If he's only playing half the snaps, that's a lot of money to throw at a part time player.

    My hope is that he can be conditioned well enough to become our three down DT. His history shows that he has no self control during the offseason. How far along during the season would it take before he's in "shape" again?

    Count me in on the Thomas, Weatherspoon, Dwyer, Iupati, best available CB bandwagon.
     
  7. Texan4Ever

    Texan4Ever Hall of Fame

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    Here's the way I see things, in the first round for the Texans we have to address our defensive secondary early on. Either we go for Earl Thomas or a cornerback like Joe Haden or Kyle Wilson (with a trade down for Wilson). We also need to draft a running back and upgrade the interior offensive line by moving up in the second round and getting Maurkice Pouncy as our future center.

    I was also flirting the idea of getting a player and moving him to another position perhaps? Trent Williams can play the center position and I can also see him as a guard but I doubt he is on the board after the first round.
     
  8. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    BL: I'd prefer to look at a trade down on a CB. I don't like Donovan Warren, Patrick Robinson or Kyle Wilson until later in the 1st or early in the 2nd.

    Which CB would you be looking at 19/20?
     


  9. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    Agree on Earl or trade down for CB. However, I think Pouncey may go in 1st or worst case early 2nd. I like him a lot and if we can trade down in 24-28 range and get an extra 3rd or more, I'd take him as our LG or C.
     
  10. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    I'd disagree. Look at some of the best NTs, they're huge fat guys, but they have athletic ability despite their size. They can be the difference in stopping the run and for short yardage and goal line situations space eaters like Cody are worth their weight in gold.

    Cody can either control his weight and be an awesome NT or he'll lose focus and go the other way. However, I think he is a monster and if given a great situation/coach will do well.
     
  11. beerlover

    beerlover Site Contributor

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    It all depends on what type of corner your looking for. If your talking Texans they like corners who are physical & strong in run support. I have Kyle Wilson as their guy to replace Dunta if he leaves via free agency very similar body type & playmaking ability. A corner I'm warming up to is Patrick Robinson, Florida State, he is a very similar corner to the Saints Tracy Porter who came out of Indiana with injury concerns & reason his draft stock dropped to early 2nd but when healthy has recovery speed & ball skills to take it the other way as witnessed tonight when he picked off Manning for 6 & sealing Saints Superbowl win. Basicly down between those two & once they figure that out don't think for a minute they play around & try to trade down cause he'll be graded out high by another team & be off the board.
     
  12. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    Wow, looks like you've put a lot of work into this.


    If I were in the war room, I need to have a good idea of what will be there around our second round pick to have a good feel of what I want to do with this pick.

    So..... sharpen your pencil, and tell me what's going to be there at or around the 52nd pick.
     
  13. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

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    With all due respect TIJ, name one Texan who is ten pounds over weight much less forty to fifty? I don't believe Cody is on our radar. If he had put some effort into the last two years....and got himself down to 330- 335, i.e that he had enough pride and brains to understand the gravity of his situation...that'd be one thing. But the fact is, if his sophomore Alabama weight is even close to accurate, he went hog trough and wallowed like a castrated dog with his fat face in the bowl, and ate himself all the way up to 377. So now with the combine three weeks away, whats the over under he'll be close to 360 ? As much as we've heard Kubiak talk about discipline, I find it kind of hard to believe we draft the most undisciplined player in the draft with our most precious pick. Never know but the only way we draft Terrence( ed for brain fart. ) Cody is if Kubiak strokes out and Smith puts a pistol in his mouth and pulls the trigger the day before the draft. The guy is a walking talking stoke just looking for a place and time to happen. JMHO
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2010
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  14. thunderkyss

    thunderkyss Salem Poor

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    I'm repping you because this makes me feel good about my weight.
     
  15. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

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    He is a big guy. He is certainly a strong guy. But what he isn't is a disciplined guy. And they have always placed a tremendous value on character and discipline.

    Yeah I was just thinking as I was typing.... . I've been tempting fate also....time to start walking and drop twenty pounds.
     
  16. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    3-t-P,

    Appreciate the sentiment, but don't let the thread get wrapped around Terrance (not Sean) Cody. I caveated my comments with "Doubt he makes it to us, but if he does, wow I'd be very tempted...not sure Texans will though."

    I'm more interested in Jared Odrick, what do you think about his prospects for our Texans?
     
  17. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

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    I think an awful lot of DTs from this class will go off the board in the second. I think Ordick is a lot like Jeff Zgonina. And Kubes loves Zgonina. I wouldn't be too shocked if he was the pick at twenty.
     
  18. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    TK,

    It's a little early, but here are a few folks that may be around for our pick in the 2nd that the Texans may have interest in...

    *Jahvid Best RB 5-9, 195 4.30 California
    *Ryan Mathews RB 5-10, 220 4.50 Fresno State
    Dexter McCluster WR 5-8, 165 4.42 Mississippi
    *Joe McKnight RB 5-11, 200 4.35 USC
    *Toby Gerhart RB 6-0, 240 4.55 Stanford
    Vladimir Ducasse OL 6-5, 330 5.35 UMass
    Mike Johnson G 6-5, 305 5.40 Alabama
    Jon Asamoah G 6-4, 315 5.10 Illinois (X)
    *Dominique Franks CB 6-0, 190 4.45 Oklahoma
    Perrish Cox CB 5-11, 195 4.45 Oklahoma St
    *Donovan Warren CB 5-11, 195 4.45 Michigan
    *Kareem Jackson CB 5-10, 192 4.45 Alabama
    *Chad Jones S 6-2, 215 4.55 LSU
    Nate Allen S 6-1, 205 4.55 South Florida
    *Morgan Burnett S 6-0, 210 4.55 Georgia Tech
     
  19. Texan in Japan

    Texan in Japan All Pro

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    Interesting comparison! I've gotten more enamored w/ him after watching Senior Bowl practices...he seems to be our kind of player.
     
  20. threetoedpete

    threetoedpete Hall of Fame

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    I think after the Steve Slaton Experiment, they're going to be a little bit gun shy about drafting a sub 210 RB, no matter what his college rep with a high pick.

    That means Best, McCluster, Joe Mcknight, and the Clemson guy Spiller is out in the first three rounds. No matter if they are on the board or not, I don't believe we will stick our fingers into that socket once again. Do You? If someone wants them at our pick, they'll make a deal.

    ...all this assumes that Iupati goes off the board to San Fransisco or Pittsburgh, or Seattle doesn't make a move up to get their hands on him.

    The other Wild card for people moving up is Vladimir Ducasse. If Lance Z is correct and their is a run on offensive left tackles people are going to start panicking at the top of the second. There 's only so many and guys like Seattle and Detroit may become nervous. Sabatian Volmers are more chance luck than drafting skill.

    I don't think Gerhart is quick enough to do what we do. He's out in the second. I said the same thing about Tulane's Matt Forte when he came out. If either guy had some wiggle to make the first guy miss, it'd be one thing but neither does. Both are suited to be power backs on a power offense. We don't do that.

    So is Pouncy, Dywer or one of the DB's going to fall a dozen spots to our 52 ? I have no idea. If Mike Johnson is running 5.4's I don't believe he'll be an option. Gotta be able to run down the field and execute a block on this team.

    Jon Asamoah or is Caldwell slotted to be the guy at RG and Studdard at Left guard ? I don't know that one either. Jerry Huges might be there but why would you go back to back OLB's in consecutive drafts ?

    One guy who does fit...and no one is going to like this is Aaron Hernandez...Owen Daniels is due back when ? And you know James Casey is locked and loaded by September because ? What I see is we're one play away from being totally naked at a position that accounts for what 17 % of the passing offense ?

    So mine are with Iupati off the board....and assuming they love Ordick,
    1. Jared Ordick
    2. Aaron Henadez
    3. Brandon Ghee
    4. Stefon Johnson
    5. A.J. Walton C Baylor or Marshall Newhouse OG/OT TCU ( this pick assumes they are not scared incontinent at their schedule and won't move it up one or two rounds to fill the hole.)
    6th LeGarrette Blount RB Oregon ( I believe in redemption...but he reminds me of the guy who shorten Steve Young's carreer, Lawrence Phillips)
    7th Myron Rolle SS Florida St..

    FA: Cliffton Geathers DE, South Carolina, Collin Kapernick QB Nevada, Jimmy Graham TE Miami, Roy Upchurch RB Alabama, Thomas Austin , G Clemson. Emanuel Sanders WR,SMU .

    Ryan Renolds LB, O.U.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2010

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