1. CAROLINA: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama.
2. HOUSTON: Tyree Wilson, edge rusher, Texas Tech.
I’ve gone back and forth, forth and back, on this pick and this slot. In the end, I think two things: One, GM Nick Caserio trained under Bill Belichick and learned that just because you have a crying need at a position, you don’t force yourself to choose a player you don’t love in order to fill that hole, because you may end up needing to fill the same hole again two years down the road. Two: The Texans might see Wilson filling the mold of Nick Bosa, a difference-making quick-twitch rusher, more than Will Anderson. Coach DeMeco Ryans loved the impact of Bosa in San Francisco and knows that, aside from quarterback, the hugest hole on his team is at pass-rusher. The rush depth chart for the Texans is putrid. But obviously this pick would be a vote against C.J. Stroud as much as a vote for Wilson. Things to watch for here: Is there a team, even with all the smoke about Stroud, that would want to trade up for him with Houston or Arizona? And would the Texans risk passing on a quarterback here or with their second pick in the round (12th)? Seems incredible to think Houston might exit the top 10 without a quarterback, flawed though they are. One other point to make here is that Anderson would win over Wilson—who also is recovering from a foot injury—in a vote of 31 GMs if the question was, Who’s the better pro prospect—Anderson or Wilson?
3. TENNESSEE (trade with Arizona): C.J. Stroud, quarterback, Ohio State.
4. INDIANAPOLIS: Will Levis, quarterback, Kentucky.
5. SEATTLE: Jalen Carter, defensive tackle, Georgia.
6. DETROIT: Will Anderson, edge rusher, Alabama.
7. LAS VEGAS: Devon Witherspoon, cornerback, Illinois.
8. ATLANTA: Bijan Robinson, running back, Texas.
9. CHICAGO: Paris Johnson Jr., tackle, Ohio State.
10. PHILADELPHIA: Nolan Smith, edge rusher, Georgia.
11. ARIZONA (trade with Tennessee): Christian Gonzalez, cornerback, Oregon.
12. HOUSTON: Hendon Hooker, quarterback, Tennessee.
Guess which AFC South team has been doing work on Hooker in the last week or so? A clue: It’s the team that’s passing on C.J. Stroud. Houston has a surplus of picks and no long-term quarterback, and the Texans simply couldn’t come out of having seven picks in the top 50 of the ’22 and ’23 drafts without one of them being a quarterback. Imagine the draft actually falls this way. The AFC South would have four quarterbacks picked in the top 12 (Trevor Lawrence, Stroud, Levis, Hooker) of recent drafts, and all under 26. For the Texans, DeMeco Ryans prided himself on adding teachers to his coaching staff, and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and QB coach Jerrod Johnson will be assigned their most important student, as he rehabs for part or most of this season from a 2022 ACL injury, if this pick goes down.
13. N.Y. JETS: Broderick Jones, tackle, Georgia.
14. NEW ENGLAND: Peter Skoronski, tackle/guard, Northwestern.
15. GREEN BAY: Dalton Kincaid, tight end, Utah.
16. WASHINGTON: Brian Branch, safety, Alabama.
17. PITTSBURGH: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, wide receiver, Ohio State.
18. DETROIT: Deonte Banks, cornerback, Maryland.
19. TAMPA BAY: Darnell Wright, tackle, Tennessee.
20. SEATTLE: Zay Flowers, wide receiver, Boston College.
21. L.A. CHARGERS: Jordan Addison, wide receiver, USC.
22. BALTIMORE: Emmanuel Forbes, cornerback, Mississippi State.
23. MINNESOTA: Anthony Richardson, quarterback, Florida.
24. JACKSONVILLE: Lukas Van Ness, edge rusher, Iowa.
25. N.Y. GIANTS: Michael Mayer, tight end, Notre Dame.
26. DALLAS: Joey Porter Jr., cornerback, Penn State.
27. BUFFALO: Josh Downs, wide receiver, North Carolina.
28. CINCINNATI: Luke Musgrave, tight end, Oregon State.
29. NEW ORLEANS: Myles Murphy, defensive end, Clemson.
30. PHILADELPHIA: Jahmyr Gibbs, running back, Alabama.
31. KANSAS CITY: O’Cyrus Torrence, guard, Florida.