I'm curious if you could post any kind of data you've read/heard on the success/fail rate of first-time head coaches vs retread coaches. It's a genuinely interesting consideration.
Quick search that I did came out of January of 2021 revealed mostly the opposite..
Deep Dive: Evaluating Success Rate for First-Year Head Coaches
It's not about records. You can't statistics this. It's
overall. Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Gary Kubiak. All were much better head coaches the second time around. Pete Carroll took a little longer but he became a better NFL head coach. Andy still sucks at game management, he was actually worse in Philly, but he's a much better overall HC now.
One of my guys I talk to who's a high level front office guy believes that first time head coaches should be given a
longer leash, given
more safe years than guys who've had previous head coaching experience. Everybody makes first timer mistakes, bad hires, bad decisions. You know sooner that an experienced guy isn't gonna work than an inexperienced guy. You think CLE, PHI, HOU, NYJ would be happy with version #2 of the above back in their buildings??
There's
so much more on the plate of an NFL head coach that they're always going to make first timer mistakes. Like how to allocate your time vs delegate, who does your game management, who does in game analytics, how much time to spend during the week on your side of the ball meetings vs the opposite side, how do you practice, getting on same page with a GM takes time, bringing coaches you elevated in who hit the ceiling and have to be fired, who/how much do you trust in your medical staff, who manages your media time/preps you and are they good at their job, time lost due to interfacing with your owners, plus 100 other things... and then everything family.
You don't just walk into all of that and do everything well. And there's
no NFL position for
'guy who follows the head coach everywhere he goes watching everything he does.' All the other coaches are doing
their jobs, getting behind on
their responsibilities, making
their own mistakes. And it's the head coach they go to for guidance.
Plus... handling problem players. Matt LaFleur walked into Green Bay and said
this is our offense and Aaron Rodgers told him to his face
FORK YOU, I'm running what I run and checking to what I see using my 13 years of NFL experience that you don't have. Rodgers was ignoring LaFleur's playcalls and calling what
he wanted. That was an issue the first time head coach needed (a lot of) time to work through. NFL hires a first time HC and fires him two years later and they
don't even know who it is they're firing because the guy is not a finished product yet.