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Head Coach Candidates

wildroot said:
I don't think anyone is allowed to talk to them so I'm confused as to where all this talk about Ryans going to Denver is coming from! I think it's all BS. Hope so anyway...
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Not necessarily BS. That doesn't stop ownership from discussing things amongst each other regarding previous interviewees, with leaks of those being generated.
 
DeMeco will sell a lot of tickets in Houston, so I'm sure Hanna and Cal are interested. For the Texans to hire a coach that I liked beforehand would be unusual, but this year there's a good chance that may happen. DeMeco isn't the only one on the Texans interview list I'd be happy with. So far the only one I know for sure I don't like is Peyton, and that's only because of the cost associated with him.
 
Thorn said:
DeMeco will sell a lot of tickets in Houston, so I'm sure Hanna and Cal are interested. For the Texans to hire a coach that I liked beforehand would be unusual, but this year there's a good chance that may happen. DeMeco isn't the only one on the Texans interview list I'd be happy with. So far the only one I know for sure I don't like is Peyton, and that's only because of the cost associated with him.
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I feel like a broken record but he's my first choice for the leader he is. I'm not too concerned what "side of the ball" he's from, that'll sort itself out. Ticket draw or not give me the leader alpha guy all day.
 
I look for small things. I notice in Rapoport's tweet, he says Ryans has emerged as A top target, not THE top target.

I think that language is on purpose. I am too used to Lucy pulling the football out from good ole CB, so I'm not getting my hopes too high.

But reading between the lines best as I can - I think it means they have 2-3 candidates that they like well enough to pull the trigger on...and in a perfect world, they prefer Demeco...but that they have a couple of good fallback candidates if Ryans doesn't work out, probably Gannon as 1B and Steichen as 1C.

Demeco has another suitor. Nicer state, much better football history...and deeper pockets. That said, if current football is what is motiving Decemo it's gotta be the Texans. Maybe just maybe I'll get that late Christmas present after all and wake up with a Ryans in my stocking sometime next week.
 
Lucky said:
I think a lot of the pro-Gannon fervor comes from him being considered the Caserio guy. I don't care one way or the other if Gannon is. He seems to be a legit candidate. And I'm happy that if he does become the HC, he won't bring Reich and Zimmer with him.
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Gannon was George Paton's #2 choice after Dan Quinn last year. Broncos higher ups decided they needed a committee (of 8!), removed the decision from Paton alone, and that group panic bought Hackett when the Jaguars brass landed in Denver to interview him. It was dumb and a huge fail.

Gannon is respected by every scout I have communicated with directly or indirectly. He's earned it. He was quietly surrounded and congratulated by many in Mobile a year ago when he was going to be Houston's next coach. Then McNairs stepped in and tapped Lovie. Again, Gannon is about the same age as Meco but has a decade (that's 10 years) more outside the lines NFL experience than Cap.

First time head coaches have a higher fail rate than second time guys. More pro experience can mitigate that to an extent.
 
Lucky said:
They only have 39 players signed. A dozen of those guys are practice squaders. Then,Cooks has to be dealt. Britt & Murray have to be cut. The Texans need at least 6 rookies competing for starting spots, and another 10 filling out the back of the roster.

Caserio has brainwashed you.
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I'm good with getting 8-9 quality rookies and filling the rest of the roster out with vet mins/UDFA.
 
Lucky said:
They only have 39 players signed. A dozen of those guys are practice squaders. Then,Cooks has to be dealt. Britt & Murray have to be cut. The Texans need at least 6 rookies competing for starting spots, and another 10 filling out the back of the roster.

Caserio has brainwashed you.
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I've always valued quality over quantity.
 
steelbtexan said:
I'm good with getting 8-9 quality rookies and filling the rest of the roster out with vet mins/UDFA.
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Vet mins cost more than drafted rookies. The less you spend on vets at the backend of the roster, the more $$$ you have to spend on quality free agents.
steelbtexan said:
I've always valued quality over quantity.
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It's math that you don't value.
 
Marcus said:
Bidding War??
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Now question is how much truth is to this? Is it McClain just providing click bait or do we think they’ll actually be a bidding war?
I think in big picture it’s more than about money. Texans have the draft capital and I think Ryans would really be able to build the type of team he want’s working with the front office.
 
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1619081625916293120

Now that it appears that the Broncos may lose “top candidate” DeMeco Ryans to the Texans, it’s time to pivot to Plan B.

But it’s not a pivot, supposedly. Mike Klis of 9News.com contends that the Broncos have other “top candidates.” Seven in all, per Klis.

Seven seems like a lot of “top candidates.” The phrase “top candidate” logically should be limited to maybe two or three.

On Thursday, the report from Klis mentioned seven total candidates. It listed four near the top of the article — Ryans, Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, former Saints coach Sean Payton, and former Lions and Colts coach Jim Caldwell. Later, the report added current Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, and former Stanford coach David Shaw.

With Quinn deciding to stay in Dallas, that’s six total candidates. But now there supposedly are seven “top candidates.”

Frankly, this feels like an effort to lay the foundation for the very real possibility that the No. 1 choice (Ryans) will decide to coach the Texans instead, forcing the Broncos to move on to No. 2. The Broncos won’t want to allow the impression to exist that they settled for anything other than their top choice.

With a primary owner worth $70 billion, the Broncos could easily win a financial tug of war with the Texans for Ryans, if the Broncos want him badly enough. But the NFL’s newest owners also won’t want to make waves by blowing the salary curve for entry-level coaches.
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zshawn10 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1619054457244815377

Rap talked on Pats show today that he has to use specific language because he's still a coordinator in the playoffs this weekend.

Ian confident DeMeco would choose Houston over Denver if both jobs offered (1:53 mark)
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If true.
 
CloakNNNdagger said:
Gannon was George Paton's #2 choice after Dan Quinn last year. Broncos higher ups decided they needed a committee (of 8!), removed the decision from Paton alone, and that group panic bought Hackett when the Jaguars brass landed in Denver to interview him. It was dumb and a huge fail.

Gannon is respected by every scout I have communicated with directly or indirectly. He's earned it. He was quietly surrounded and congratulated by many in Mobile a year ago when he was going to be Houston's next coach. Then McNairs stepped in and tapped Lovie. Again, Gannon is about the same age as Meco but has a decade (that's 10 years) more outside the lines NFL experience than Cap.

First time head coaches have a higher fail rate than second time guys. More pro experience can mitigate that to an extent.
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I'm curious if you could post any kind of data you've read/heard on the success/fail rate of first-time head coaches vs retread coaches. It's a genuinely interesting consideration.

Quick search that I did came out of January of 2021 revealed mostly the opposite..

Deep Dive: Evaluating Success Rate for First-Year Head Coaches
Based on the data from the past 13 years, 24 out of the 84 new coaches (rookie head coaches and veteran head coaches with a new team) have made the playoffs in their first year with their team (28.6%). Those 84 coaches had a combined record of 596-746-2, which is a .443 winning percentage (or just about 7 wins).

If you look at just the rookie head coaches since 2008 — which is 60 out of the 84 (71.4%) new HC hires — they account for 17 of the 24 new coaches that have made the playoffs in their first year (70.8%). Historically, this means that new rookie HCs are about 41.7% more likely to make the playoffs than new HCs who had prior head coaching experience. Those 60 rookie HCs since 2008 have had a combined record of 422-522-1, which is a .447 winning percentage (or just about 7 wins).
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For Demeco’s sake I hope he is able to take more control from Cal, Hannah, and Caserio. Reduce their meddling in order for him to continue to succeed in things he does.

That is of course if he is the HC here.
 
Lucky said:
I just want a leader. This offensive/defensive coach thing is a pendulum. Leadership is what counts. Does anyone even remember what side of the ball Jimmy Johnson came from?
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Yeah but how do you quantify what a “leader” is? Jimmy Johnson had a BOATLOAD of talent on that Dallas team. Also Johnson was a HC at UM. Can anyone give a comp of what Demeco brings to the table that was successful? The closest I can think of is Tomlin (who he reminds me of) Tomlin only had one year as DC for Minnesota before the Steelers hired him but he had way more coaching experience.

what did Demeco change or do to that 49ers defense that made it better after he took over?
 
mussop said:
Yeah but how do you quantify what a “leader” is? Jimmy Johnson had a BOATLOAD of talent on that Dallas team. Also Johnson was a HC at UM. Can anyone give a comp of what Demeco brings to the table that was successful? The closest I can think of is Tomlin (who he reminds me of) Tomlin only had one year as DC for Minnesota before the Steelers hired him but he had way more coaching experience.

what did Demeco change or do to that 49ers defense that made it better after he took over?
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Mike Singletary
 
I think we're just seeing an agent doing his job and strirring up buzz for his client. We'll know a lot more maybe as soon as Sunday evening, when either Ryans or Gannon/Steichen are out of the playoffs.

At this point I really don't have a preference. Just glad everyone involved are top candidates. That's already better than the last 2 years.
 
steelbtexan said:
Another HC another McNair pick.

I expect this to turn out like the rest of the McNair's HC picks.

Mediocre at best.
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Being a Debbie Downer is the easiest way to then later be able to say "I was right."

Hey, I predict the Texans won't win the Superbowl next year. No sh!t, 30 other teams won't win it either.

If it's Demeco, I'm excited to see how things will go. Nothing is ever guaranteed...
 
paycheck71 said:
Being a Debbie Downer is the easiest way to then later be able to say "I was right."

Hey, I predict the Texans won't win the Superbowl next year. No sh!t, 30 other teams won't win it either.

If it's Demeco, I'm excited to see how things will go. Nothing is ever guaranteed...
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Good for you
 
Mollywhopper said:
I'm curious if you could post any kind of data you've read/heard on the success/fail rate of first-time head coaches vs retread coaches. It's a genuinely interesting consideration.

Quick search that I did came out of January of 2021 revealed mostly the opposite..

Deep Dive: Evaluating Success Rate for First-Year Head Coaches
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It's not about records. You can't statistics this. It's overall. Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Gary Kubiak. All were much better head coaches the second time around. Pete Carroll took a little longer but he became a better NFL head coach. Andy still sucks at game management, he was actually worse in Philly, but he's a much better overall HC now.

One of my guys I talk to who's a high level front office guy believes that first time head coaches should be given a longer leash, given more safe years than guys who've had previous head coaching experience. Everybody makes first timer mistakes, bad hires, bad decisions. You know sooner that an experienced guy isn't gonna work than an inexperienced guy. You think CLE, PHI, HOU, NYJ would be happy with version #2 of the above back in their buildings??

There's so much more on the plate of an NFL head coach that they're always going to make first timer mistakes. Like how to allocate your time vs delegate, who does your game management, who does in game analytics, how much time to spend during the week on your side of the ball meetings vs the opposite side, how do you practice, getting on same page with a GM takes time, bringing coaches you elevated in who hit the ceiling and have to be fired, who/how much do you trust in your medical staff, who manages your media time/preps you and are they good at their job, time lost due to interfacing with your owners, plus 100 other things... and then everything family.

You don't just walk into all of that and do everything well. And there's no NFL position for 'guy who follows the head coach everywhere he goes watching everything he does.' All the other coaches are doing their jobs, getting behind on their responsibilities, making their own mistakes. And it's the head coach they go to for guidance. Plus... handling problem players. Matt LaFleur walked into Green Bay and said this is our offense and Aaron Rodgers told him to his face FORK YOU, I'm running what I run and checking to what I see using my 13 years of NFL experience that you don't have. Rodgers was ignoring LaFleur's playcalls and calling what he wanted. That was an issue the first time head coach needed (a lot of) time to work through. NFL hires a first time HC and fires him two years later and they don't even know who it is they're firing because the guy is not a finished product yet.
 
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