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Selection 1.11: JJ Watt DE Wisconson

Troy Chapman said:
Speaking on the bold area of your post. Doing that with Watt will follow with a disgruntled player that sits out during training camp etc.
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Yes, but during that time you negotiate his 4 year extension with a BIG signing bonus and you can prorate it starting in the "5th year" of his rookie deal. Thus reducing his caphit over time by throwing a few million of his signing bonus into that year.
 
Playoffs said:
A Storm is a Brewing...First round picks from the 2011 draft class are in for a rude awakening

Simply put, a system that was advertised as a way to reward players who perform has instead turned into leverage against the players.
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( By request, deserves its own topic.)
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Leverage isn't leverage unless you use it. We should offer him a "reasonable" contract now, pay him well, just not in the overpaid Mario Williams neighborhood. I'd give him $24M signing bonus (Mario got $19M & only $25M guaranteed) & guarantee the next three years of salary, $1M, $6M, $6M (another $13M)....... Overall value of the 6 year deal would be ~$60M. He gets 40% of it up front, 60% guaranteed ($37M).

I'm willing to do 5 years for $60M, I'm willing to go as far as $74M for 6. Either way, if he's worth it I'm looking to renegotiate in 2018 anyway.

So I'm looking at anything from $10M/yr (this is where we start) to $12M/yr. Which is less than the $16M/yr of Mario's contract. But I'm putting 26% more money in Jj's pocket right off the bat. & he's guaranteed 50% more.

The offer won't change next year, & it won't change after 2015 when he's a free agent. He can take the money now, or risk injury, or two sub par seasons in a 2 gap 3-4.
 
thunderkyss said:
Leverage isn't leverage unless you use it. We should offer him a "reasonable" contract now, pay him well, just not in the overpaid Mario Williams neighborhood. I'd give him $24M signing bonus (Mario got $19M & only $25M guaranteed) & guarantee the next three years of salary, $1M, $6M, $6M (another $13M)....... Overall value of the 6 year deal would be ~$60M. He gets 40% of it up front, 60% guaranteed ($37M).

I'm willing to do 5 years for $60M, I'm willing to go as far as $74M for 6. Either way, if he's worth it I'm looking to renegotiate in 2018 anyway.

So I'm looking at anything from $10M/yr (this is where we start) to $12M/yr. Which is less than the $16M/yr of Mario's contract. But I'm putting 26% more money in Jj's pocket right off the bat. & he's guaranteed 50% more.

The offer won't change next year, & it won't change after 2015 when he's a free agent. He can take the money now, or risk injury, or two sub par seasons in a 2 gap 3-4.
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Can I have some of what you are smoking?
 
infantrycak said:
Can I have some of what you are smoking?
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Are you saying you would offer Jj more than $12M/yr now, or you're going to make him play out his rookie contract, plus the team option 5th year before you offer him an extension?
 
infantrycak said:
Can I have some of what you are smoking?
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thunderkyss said:
Are you saying you would offer Jj more than...
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whoosh2.gif
 
thunderkyss said:
Are you saying you would offer Jj more than $12M/yr now, or you're going to make him play out his rookie contract, plus the team option 5th year before you offer him an extension?
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I am saying $10 is an insult, $12 is not going to happen and going all Trump on him with refusing to increase as the market rises is a recipe for failure so pass the brownies if you think that is going to work.
 
infantrycak said:
I am saying $10 is an insult, $12 is not going to happen and going all Trump on him with refusing to increase as the market rises is a recipe for failure so pass the brownies if you think that is going to work.
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I'm offering a bigger signing bonus than Mario got, I'm offering more guaranteed money than Mario got. I'm willing to guarantee him $37M (heck, I'll make it an even $40M), I'm offering an average salary of $12M, I can start putting that money in his pocket today.

He can say no. That's his prerogative. Instead of putting $25M in his mattress, or he can take his $120K game check to the bank each week. If he gets hurt & is no longer the player he is now...... he may not get such a deal in the future. If the NFL "catches up" to him & his production declines... he may not get such a deal in the future.

I'm making it pretty clear my ceiling is $12M/yr, if he turns it down now, he'll turn it down at the end of the 2015 season. I'd much rather trade him before the 2015 season before I pay him more than $12M/yr. There will more than likely be a line of teams who'd be more than happy to pay him more than that.

I'm banking on it. Especially if we draft Clowney.
 
In addition to all the other problems and reasons this has less of a chance of happening than me being made Pope, you need to take another look at Mario's contract. Through the 1st 3 years of his contract (2014) he will have received $51.9 mil so $1.9 mil more than JJ would make in the 1st 5 years of your contract proposal.

But carry on.
 
infantrycak said:
In addition to all the other problems and reasons this has less of a chance of happening than me being made Pope, you need to take another look at Mario's contract. Through the 1st 3 years of his contract (2014) he will have received $51.9 mil so $1.9 mil more than JJ would make in the 1st 5 years of your contract proposal.

But carry on.
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So be it. I've drawn my line in the sand. I put a dollar amount on what I'm willing to pay Jj Watt. Anything more than that, to me is overpaying & a mistake. If the Texans want to make that mistake, nothing I say is going to change that.

Like I said to start, what's the point of having leverage if you're not going to use it?
 
thunderkyss said:
So be it. I've drawn my line in the sand. I put a dollar amount on what I'm willing to pay Jj Watt. Anything more than that, to me is overpaying & a mistake. If the Texans want to make that mistake, nothing I say is going to change that.

Like I said to start, what's the point of having leverage if you're not going to use it?
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What's the point of drafting the best defensive player in the league if you're not prepared to pay him like it? You gonna trade him because he refuses to be low balled?

It doesn't matter if Mario's contract is ridiculous. Watt is a better player than Mario and his representation will be looking to be compensated in a similar manner. $12 mil a year is a slap in the face. The franchise tag for a DE is $13.1 mil.
 
WolverineFan said:
It doesn't matter if Mario's contract is ridiculous. Watt is a better player than Mario and his representation will be looking to be compensated in a similar manner. $12 mil a year is a slap in the face. The franchise tag for a DE is $13.1 mil.
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Mario will never realize $16M/yr.
 
ChampionTexan said:
That doesn't address my question. Many restructures don't impact dollars - only timing, and I specifically excluded taking a pay cut. So I ask again...
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Maybe I spoke too soon. Looking at the cap, they can easily afford it. But just because the Bills does it, doesn't mean we should.

"We" didn't want Mario on this team with an $18M cap hit, regardless how many sacks & TFL he produced.
 
thunderkyss said:
"We" didn't want Mario on this team with an $18M cap hit, regardless how many sacks & TFL he produced.
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"We" saw Mario not make the probowl in 4 of his 6 years with the Texans and never be an all pro or defensive player of the year. Pretty sure "we" sees that ain't JJ.
 
infantrycak said:
"We" saw Mario not make the probowl in 4 of his 6 years with the Texans and never be an all pro or defensive player of the year. Pretty sure "we" sees that ain't JJ.
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At the time the conversation was "no one" was worth that kind of money. Which is what I believed then, & believe today.

So..... how much would you offer Jj Watt?
 
thunderkyss said:
At the time the conversation was "no one" was worth that kind of money. Which is what I believed then, & believe today.

So..... how much would you offer Jj Watt?
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I was against re-signing Mario because I thought he would get a 90 million dollar offer, and didn't think he was worth it. However, just because Mario wasn't worth 16 million per year, doesn't mean no one can be.

JJ Watt is the face of the franchise, the best defensive player in the NFL 2 years in a row, only 25 years old, and I think he would be worth 16m APY if he asked for that much. I don't think he will cost that much, but it wouldn't be completely crazy to pay him that. I'd guess he winds up costing about 14 million APY (5 years 70m), but if they spread out the signing bonus over his 5th year of his rookie deal, they can reduce the future cap hit a little.
 
thunderkyss said:
At the time the conversation was "no one" was worth that kind of money. Which is what I believed then, & believe today.
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That was part of the conversation by some. I think more people thought Bills money was too much for him.

So..... how much would you offer Jj Watt?
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Double Barrel said:
Whatever it takes to keep him in a Texans uniform.

He's one of McNair's "legacy" players. Andre Johnson is the other one.
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DB nailed it. Barring an injury JJ will be made the highest paid DE in football at the time of signing of his contract just as AJ has been the highest paid WR at the signing of two of his contracts. How much that is exactly I don't know. We have leverage to wait if we want (thereby minimizing the risk of injury not dollars). Now is not the offseason to do it with limited cap room and big jumps coming in future years. No point in spending all this year's cap room on a currently locked up asset thus limiting other chances to improve the team.

Dutchrudder said:
I'd guess he winds up costing about 14 million APY (5 years 70m), but if they spread out the signing bonus over his 5th year of his rookie deal, they can reduce the future cap hit a little.
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I think that is about where the apy will end up.

Not sure what you are talking about on the 5th year rookie deal. Signing bonus can't be prorated over more than 5 years but that may not be what you are suggesting.
 
infantrycak said:
I think that is about where the apy will end up.

Not sure what you are talking about on the 5th year rookie deal. Signing bonus can't be prorated over more than 5 years but that may not be what you are suggesting.
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Yeah, so if you have a total of 6 years on a deal, 1 current year plus the 5 year extension, you can start the prorated signing bonus caphit in the current year and play it out over the first 4 of the extension. So it's over 5 years, but only 4 of the years of the extension, which lessens the caphit per year over time. It's a not a huge deal, but it makes it a little easier to swallow the mega-contract if you can drop 5 million of it into that first year. It also helps protect the team a little by making it easier to let the player go towards the end of the deal if they are underperforming.

Example - 5 year 70m extension with 25m signing bonus (14m APY):
2015: 6 million salary (5th year rookie tag) + 5 million signing bonus = 11m
2016: 7 million salary + 5 million signing bonus = 12m
2017: 7 million salary + 5 million signing bonus = 12m
2018: 7 million salary + 5 million signing bonus = 12m
2019: 7 million salary + 5 million signing bonus = 12m
2020: 17 million salary

You could also move around the salary to add more to the backend, or even it out more. A good GM would convert some of the salary to roster and workout bonuses too, maybe 500k a year. But with this extension, JJ Watt gets 25 million in cash at the end of his rookie deal, so he's not pissed off about playing a 5th year for only ~6 million bucks. This would give him 31 million dollars in 2015, and the 25 million signing bonus would be earned under Texas state law, and free from state taxes. The other 6 million would be salary, and be subject to state taxes depending on game locations.
 
Maybe tk "grades" JJ Watt the same way he "grades" college football players he doesn't even watch. I do with tk like I do with Marshall and Norg, ignore them.

Anyone saying you shouldn't make a market-value offer to the best defensive player in football obviously doesn't have much sense at all.
 
mussop said:
JJ Watt is a great pick. He should of been the second player on the Texans board.
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I had him ranked number two on my big board behind Darius. The only reaso. I had Darius higher was because of need. Thought we needed a NT more than a DE.
 
Ryan said:
That means at least another 3 seasons of JJ if we franchise him in 2016.
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If you have to franchise JJ Watt there is something wrong with your organization. JJ will get his extension probably after this year. They want him to be happy, and I doubt that he would respect a franchise that uses the franchise tag on him when he has shown them 100X over that he is a monster on the field, and a saint off it.
 
Blake said:
If you have to franchise JJ Watt there is something wrong with your organization. JJ will get his extension probably after this year. They want him to be happy, and I doubt that he would respect a franchise that uses the franchise tag on him when he has shown them 100X over that he is a monster on the field, and a saint off it.
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Those are the types of mistakes we need to stop making. I'm all about paying Jj Watt, but I'm not willing to overpay him. If he hits FA, he'll be overpaid. If we pay him $100M over 6 years, he'll be overpaid.

Three years ago, "we" all said "no one" is worth $100M, but now all of a sudden, "we're" chomping at the bit to throw $100M+ at Jj Watt... I don't agree with that.

Granted, Dude is severely underpaid now. & if I had my way, I'd have offered him a $10M contract before last season. 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017

He won't take it... I know that's what you're saying right now, there's no way he would take it. Well, he played 2013 for less than $3M & he'll play 2014 for less than $3M dollars (averaging out his four year $11M contract). & he might make $10M for 2015 (I don't his compensation will work out to $10M).... so he's already lost $14M (since I offered him $10M/yr) and will most likely lose more.

We exercised our option on him in 2015, we can franchise him in 2016, we can franchise him again in 2017. He's 25 now, in 2018 he'll be 28 years old, knocking on 30, probably about ready to sign his last NFL contract. I doubt he'll have played as well as he has played to where people would be dying to give him $100M.

At 26 years old, Jared Allen signed a contract with the Vikings (after being traded to them for a 1st & two 3rds) that paid him $12M/yr over 6 years. Then the richest contract for a defensive player. If Jj doesn't want to consider something like that... if we can't at least get to the table, I'd trade him before I franchise him. Especially if I can get a 1st & two thirds.

I'd trade him this year, if we were rebuilding. But since we're not...
 
thunderkyss said:
Those are the types of mistakes we need to stop making. I'm all about paying Jj Watt, but I'm not willing to overpay him. If he hits FA, he'll be overpaid. If we pay him $100M over 6 years, he'll be overpaid.

Three years ago, "we" all said "no one" is worth $100M, but now all of a sudden, "we're" chomping at the bit to throw $100M+ at Jj Watt... I don't agree with that.
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Show me where I said overpay him or give him 100 million or anything that you are suggesting is a mistake?
 
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