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WR Drop Rate, 2013 -- PFF

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ProFootballFocus Signature Stat -- WR Drop Rate, 2013
...
Often receivers have been lambasted for their numbers of drops and while that can be fair game, how can we compare one player dropping 20 balls when he is thrown 150, to another dropping six when he is thrown 40?

Well, what we’ve done is gather a few numbers to really answer which receivers have the best hands. Firstly, we’ve created the catchable balls number which adds up catches and drops. We then collect a percentage of how many drops a receiver had by their catchable balls, and presto! …you’ve got yourself a ‘drop rate’ — the best metric out there for determining the hands of receivers.

So then let’s see, out of wide receivers thrown at least 40 catchable balls, who is the top dog.

...it may catch some off guard that DeAndre Hopkins, who dropped just one of 53 catchable passes, finished second overall. While Hopkins didn’t quite hit the ground running as many hoped in Year 1, it owed more to being on a different wavelength than his quarterbacks than any physical limitations. With a more stable quarterback position in year two and a likely surge in targets, he’ll be a guy to watch to see how he develops. To no surprise he was the top rookie...


The good...
Code: 
#	 Name	       Team   Drops Catchable	Drop Rate
1	 LarryFitzgeraldARZ	1	83	1.20
2	 [COLOR="Navy"]DeAndre Hopkins[B]HST[/B]	1	53	1.89[/COLOR]
3	 Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	1	44	2.27
4	 RishardMatthewsMIA	1	42	2.38
4	 Vincent Brown	SD	1	42	2.38
6	 Cole Beasley	DAL	1	40	2.50
7	 James Jones	GB	2	61	3.28
8	 Marques ColstonNO	3	78	3.85
8	 Doug Baldwin	SEA	2	52	3.85
10	 Andre Roberts	ARZ	2	45	4.44
11	 Golden Tate	SEA	3	67	4.48
12	 Austin Pettis	SL	2	40	5.00
13	 Alshon Jeffery	CHI	5	94	5.32
14	 Marvin Jones	CIN	3	54	5.56
15	 DeSean Jackson	PHI	5	87	5.75

The bad...
Code: 
#	 Name	       Team   Drops Catchable	Drop Rate
78	 Davone Bess	CLV	14	56	25.00
77	 Kris Durham	DET	10	48	20.83
76	 Aaron Dobson	NE	9	46	19.57
75	 Greg Little	CLV	8	49	16.33
74	 Santana Moss	WAS	8	50	16.00
73	 Chris Givens	SL	6	40	15.00
72	 Brandon LaFell	CAR	8	57	14.04
70	 Vincent JacksonTB	12	90	13.33
70	 Steve Johnson	BUF	8	60	13.33
69	 Cecil Shorts	JAX	10	76	13.16
68	 Mike Wallace	MIA	11	84	13.10
67	 BrandonMarshallCHI	15	115	13.04
66	 Danny Amendola	NE	8	62	12.90
65	 Dwayne Bowe	KC	8	65	12.31
64	 Wes Welker	DEN	10	83	12.05
Click to expand...
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/03/24/sig-stats-drop-rate-wrs/
 
Fitz is just amazing and is on a completely different level from everyone else. Dude was born with baseball gloves instead of hands.
 
Do they spell out their criteria for catchable? They sure are knocking off a bunch.

Larry Fitzgerald - tgts 136, 83 catchable -> 39% uncatchable.
DeAndre Hopkins - tgts 93, 53 catchable -> 43% uncatchable.
 
eriadoc said:
I'd be curious to see where AJ ranked.
Click to expand...
10 drops, 8.40% catch rate.

I'd have to use a spreadsheet to mirror their filters for this particular article but that puts him just in the top half for 2013.
infantrycak said:
Do they spell out their criteria for catchable?
Click to expand...
There's a dropped passes statistic, so receptions + dropped passes = catchable. PFF does their own charting/grading on targets/drops/etc.

Here's another website with their own criteria: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/
 
Playoffs said:
10 drops, 8.40% catch rate.

I'd have to use a spreadsheet to mirror their filters for this particular article but that puts him just in the top half for 2013.
Click to expand...

AJ does that. Goes 2 or 3 years with an excellent drop rate and then will have an off year often with most of the drops coming in 1-3 games.

There's a dropped passes statistic, so receptions + dropped passes = catchable. PFF does their own charting/grading on targets/drops/etc.
Click to expand...

What about tipped/defensed? Are they carrying the same uncatchable stats over to QBs?

I remember a few years ago listening to an interview with a guy explaining how they did it (he was with a team) and they had an in the middle category for balls which weren't thrown so badly they would call it a misthrow for the QB but weren't thrown well enough that if the WR didn't catch it they counted it as a drop. So neither was getting dinged no matter whether the result was a reception or not.
 
infantrycak said:
What about tipped/defensed? Are they carrying the same uncatchable stats over to QBs?...
Click to expand...

Yeah, everything they do that I see makes common sense. Like NFL would award a sack to whichever defensive player was closest to a QB if the QB just tripped on his own feet and fell down -- they don't do that.

For QBs they have throw aways, hit as threw, batted passes, and spikes in addition to the standard stuff. Also passing with no pressure, under pressure, when blitzed, no blitz, as well as location metrics.

For me it gives consistent detailed information over time. Similar service would do the same, imo.
 
PHILLYTEXANFAN said:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

This list is different


Your man... Pots and pans
Click to expand...

The default sort on that list is the number of drops in descending order (from bad to good). When I resorted by the drop %age, I noticed that they don't have a minimum # of targets requirement, which makes it difficult to read. In any case, they have both Hopkins and Fitzgerald with 2 drops, somewhere near the top of the list.
 
paycheck71 said:
The default sort on that list is the number of drops in descending order (from bad to good). When I resorted by the drop %age, I noticed that they don't have a minimum # of targets requirement, which makes it difficult to read. In any case, they have both Hopkins and Fitzgerald with 2 drops, somewhere near the top of the list.
Click to expand...

They had OD with 0.
 
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