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2014 QB Class Not That Great

Bridgewater - won't make the mistake that costs you the game. With a strong OL, a good running game and a stout defense, is your steady game manager.

Manziel - just keeps gunning, has the highest come back capability. With lesser overall team talent, has the better chance of leading the team to a winning season.

Bridgewater - Makes quick decisions to keep the chains moving. Won't put a team in a hole but keep a lower talent offense effective without pressuring a lesser defense with bad field postion.

Manziel - Gunsligner who will dig holes so deep that even his prodigious playmaking can't dig himsefl out of.

See you can paint it both ways.
 
Best athlete on the field and game manager aren't ordinarily associated.
Yeah, neither are QBs and best athlete on the field.
laugh-1.gif
 
Did you cut the wrong part? You meant this to refer to Manziel instead of Bridgewater, right?

How about best talent. How many guys did Bridgewater play with, or against that will be drafted, much less be a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick?

It's arguable if Manziel was the best talent on his team.
 
How about best talent. How many guys did Bridgewater play with, or against that will be drafted, much less be a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick?

It's arguable if Manziel was the best talent on his team.

Being the best talent on your team isn`t a negative. You probably can argue it is a prerequisite for a number 1 pick. Same goes for being better than the competition. His team didn`t help his numbers as for example Mettenbergers team helped his.

It is true that the competition wasn`t always up to par. But Bridgewater did great against any opponent with his best games coming against the best competition. In my oppinion this argument would only be a concern, if he`d struggled against better competition. He did not, he excelled.
 
How about best talent. How many guys did Bridgewater play with, or against that will be drafted, much less be a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick?

It's arguable if Manziel was the best talent on his team.

If I'm playing with B-string guys against B-string guys isn't that similar to playing with A-string guys against A-string guys? If you've got a guy at WR who's going to go in the first couple of rounds, you've got to expect him to be schooling his competition and if you're the QB throwing to him, you've got to expect a bigger window.

But if your receivers aren't very good, then you're going to have to work harder to get them open.

I would argue that Manziel playing with such a talented cast made him look better than he was whereas Bridgewater and Bortles playing with those guys made those other guys look better. It's like when Cutler was in college at Vandy and Leinart was in college at USC and VY was at Texas. Cutler was having to make harder throws than Leinart was and that made Cutler look not as good and Leinart/Young look better.
 
2002 - 0 current starters but top 5 QBs had 300 starts.
2003 - 1 current +1 former who went to SB
2004 - 3 current starters, would be 4 with Schaub.
2005 - 3 current starters
2006 - 1 current starter
2007 - 0
2008 - 2 current starters, assuming Henne out.
2009 - 1 current starter
2010 - 1 current starter
2011 - 3 current starters, not counting 3 incumbents who may be out

True zeros are rare. So are classes pushing out 5+ long term solid starters.
Is there a reason you didn't include 2012?
It happens to be one of those years that produced five solid starters...
- Luck
- Griffin
-Tannehill
- Weeden
- Wilson
- Foles*
* only a starter for one year; all the other guys have been two-year starters.
link
Cak, if you're right, and I believe you have a point, that years producing five or more solid starters are rare, then 2012 was that last "special" year and maybe we missed the window.
As someone said, we picked the wrong year to suck.
 
Is there a reason you didn't include 2012?

Wanted a too soon cutoff and this one coincided with a decade of drafts.

If you had looked at 2002 in 2004 there would have been 4 current starters which I think illustrates the too soon point as does 2011 which is showing them dropping fast as judgments are made.
 
If I'm playing with B-string guys against B-string guys isn't that similar to playing with A-string guys against A-string guys? If you've got a guy at WR who's going to go in the first couple of rounds, you've got to expect him to be schooling his competition and if you're the QB throwing to him, you've got to expect a bigger window.

But if your receivers aren't very good, then you're going to have to work harder to get them open.

I would argue that Manziel playing with such a talented cast made him look better than he was whereas Bridgewater and Bortles playing with those guys made those other guys look better. It's like when Cutler was in college at Vandy and Leinart was in college at USC and VY was at Texas. Cutler was having to make harder throws than Leinart was and that made Cutler look not as good and Leinart/Young look better.

So when the back-up QB is kicking butt with the 2s & 3s in the preseason against the 2s & 3s in the preseason, he take over as starter, even though the starter played relatively as well against the 1s with the 1s?

Playing for a major program in a major conference has always been part of the resume of an elite prospect. It's always been favorable to a guy who played extremely well in a lesser conference. There is a reason for that.

Right now, we're looking at Teddy Bridgewater for the #1 overall pick. I understand the strength of schedule thing will be down played.
 
So when the back-up QB is kicking butt with the 2s & 3s in the preseason against the 2s & 3s in the preseason, he take over as starter, even though the starter played relatively as well against the 1s with the 1s?

He's got a better chance of it than if he's getting his ass kicked.

Playing for a major program in a major conference has always been part of the resume of an elite prospect. It's always been favorable to a guy who played extremely well in a lesser conference. There is a reason for that.

Right now, we're looking at Teddy Bridgewater for the #1 overall pick. I understand the strength of schedule thing will be down played.

Uh.

I don't think so.

Historically, the best QBs come from smaller schools or if they come from one of the big conferences, they're usually not from one of the stronger schools in the conference. It's rare to see good NFL QBs come out of schools like Texas, Alabama, LSU, or USC. It's rare to see good NFL QBs seriously contending for national titles in college.

At least, that's the way I've always seen it.
 
He's got a better chance of it than if he's getting his ass kicked.



Uh.

I don't think so.

Historically, the best QBs come from smaller schools or if they come from one of the big conferences, they're usually not from one of the stronger schools in the conference. It's rare to see good NFL QBs come out of schools like Texas, Alabama, LSU, or USC. It's rare to see good NFL QBs seriously contending for national titles in college.

At least, that's the way I've always seen it.

meh... they come from everywhere.
check this list from 1980 to the present.

....of course it depends on what you call a "major program".
Matt Ryan from Boston College, Joe Flacco from Delaware, Kaepernick from Nevada-Reno... I wouldn't call those "major programs"

Russell Wilson from Wisc., Cam Newton from Auburn, RGIII from Baylor... those are major programs but not really known to be QB factories.

They come from everywhere.
 
tweets read bottom(oldest)-to-top
Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer
6) Mettenberger is going to entice teams. Absent the ACL injury, I know at least one club who'd have had him No. 1 among the QBs.

5) The biggest knock on McCarron -- You don't see him enough where everything is breaking down around him. And the OU game raised concerns.

4) I think personnel folks see Bridgewater like this -- Very good in a lot of areas, but not special. And they worry about his frame.

3) Most common comparison I heard for Blake Bortles was Andrew Luck, though Bortles is not quite the athlete, and not nearly as developed.

2) I was surprised to hear one veteran personnel man I respect a bunch say Derek Carr was the best QB in the group.

1) Found a little more doubt than I thought I would on Manziel. Several folks mentioned Kyle Shanahan as someone who could make it work.

Did some kicking around on the draft QBs over the weekend, and the opinions vary wildly from evaluator-to-evaluator in ranking this class.
 
tweets read bottom(oldest)-to-top

Garoppolo Pro Day...

Tony Pauline ‏@TonyPauline
Not sure it its out there but I'm told it was HC Bill O'Brien & QB coach George Godsey who privately worked out Jimmy Garoppolo this morning

Eric Edholm ‏@Eric_Edholm
First poor throw of the day on a deep out by Jimmy Garoppolo. Underthrew it and was early.

No, but I didn't embarrass myself. Looked the ball right into my thigh. Textbook. RT @maggiehendricks: @Eric_Edholm Video?

And this reporter almost took one off the face. #prodayhazards

Every one of Garoppolo's short and intermediate passes were on target. Now onto the deeper throws.

One last Harbaugh nugget on Garoppolo: He watched several of his games over 4 years. Also: "I enjoyed following him through [this] year."

So they did, and Garoppolo and Harbaugh ducked on to an off-limits-to-others part of the field and threw and talked for 45 minutes.

Jimmy Garoppolo on how Jim Harbaugh mini-workout came together: "He saw me, introduced himself and said, 'Wanna throw a little?'"

Jimmy Garoppolo's agent is Don Yee ... who also represents a guy named Tom Brady.

Garoppolo on QB idols: “Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. If you could mold those two together, you might have the perfect quarterback.”

And Jim Harbaugh, who worked him out prior. MT @AdamSchefter: Texans HC Bill O'Brien at Northwestern for EIU QB Jimmy Garoppolo's Pro Day.

Northwestern HC Pat Fitzgerald (@coachfitz51) had a great line about NFL pro day drills: "Some kids are better at drills than at football."

Garoppolo will throw "short script" of predetermined passes at pro day but will open it up to requests if scouts want to see certain throws.

Jaguars, who spent week coaching him at Senior Bowl. At least didn't see them. RT @mattatisu: @Eric_Edholm Which team wasn't there?

Jim Harbaugh told me on Jimmy Garoppolo: "Quick release, yes, but sometimes too quick. You want to see him go through whole motion." #49ers

#49ers' Harbaugh and #Texans' Bill O'Brien were only HC's I spotted. Harbaugh talked to me about JG, clearly VERY aware of his ability.

31 of 32 NFL teams spotted at Northwestern Pro Day to watch EIU's Jimmy Garoppolo. JG and Jim Harbaugh warmed up for 45 minutes together.
 
No one is saying that. Just cause you don't see a QB as first round talent doesn't mean it's correct or that others don't also, but choose to overdraft them based on need.

You thought that AJ McCarron was a 1st round pick just 3 weeks ago, so not being rude, but maybe you just don't have an eye for QBs, I respect your opinion on the other positions though.

Most people believe that the top QBs are first round talent. They are NOT Andy Daltons being drafted in the first based on need. They are graded out significantly better overall. TB is graded out HIGHER than Cam Newton was.

TJ Yates is a loser bro and we've seen nothing from Brock O. Also, who is to say RusWil would be a Super Bowl champion on any other team? Personally, I don't know if he'd be a successful starter on many other teams in the NFL besides the Hawks.

EDIT: Came off a little rude, I apologize. Editing this so it's not so much attacking as much as disagreeing.

Who s doing the grading?

The same guys that drafted Locker/Ponder/Gabbert as 1st rders? Yeah I trust those guys about as much as I trust Boardroom BoBBy's/Slick Rick's val of Manziel. Hopefully BO'B makes the call on his QB. I happen to believe TB is another version of Dalton. Not that my opinion matters. But I've got just about as good a track record as some of these scouts and don't have near the research data they do.

I judge by what I see, not what I read. The QB's I like most in this draft are.

1. Garapollo
2. Bortles
3. Brett Smith
4. Aaron Murray
5. TB
6. McCarron
7. JM
9. Mett
10. Savage

I would like to see your top 10 of QB's that you've seen play more than 4 games. I've seen all of these guys 4 or more times. Excluding Garapollo, who after the East/west game and Sr. Bowl I've watched his footwork/release/decision making/arm strength on film and honestly think he is going to turn out to be the best of the bunch. He reminds me of a less wild Romo.
 
Excluding Garapollo, who after the East/west game and Sr. Bowl I've watched his footwork/release/decision making/arm strength on film and honestly think he is going to turn out to be the best of the bunch. He reminds me of a less wild Romo.

The college senior had a record-shattering season in 2013 — he broke all of Tony Romo’s career school records — and won the Walter Payton Award after throwing for 5,050 yards and 53 touchdowns.

Garoppolo has been overshadowed by the likes of Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr and Johnny Manziel, but if the Texans pass on a quarterback with their first overall pick, they could end up taking him at the top of the second round. If Garoppolo goes to the 49ers at the end of the first round, he would play a backup role to quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
Si.com
 
NFL.com QB Draft Grades:

  1. 6.4 Blake Bortles
  2. 6.3 Teddy Bridgewater
  3. 5.9 Johnny Manziel
  4. 5.8 Derek Carr
  5. 5.6 Aj McCarron
  6. 5.4 Tajh Boyd
  7. 5.4 Logan Thomas
  8. 5.3 Jimmy Garoppolo
  9. 5.2 Stephen Morris
  10. 5.2 Zach Mettenberger
  11. 5.2 Jeff Matthews
  12. 5.2 Aaron Murray
  13. 5.1 Tom Savage
  14. 5.1 David Fales
 
Interesting analysis on what might take a QB out of the running for your team.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Knockout
...While easier for scouts to identify details like height, weight, arm strength, base accuracy, and mobility, it’s more difficult to quantify – or even qualify – that amount of sophistication that a player has when it comes to integrating these details on the field.

Reading defenses, pocket presence, touch, and placement are examples of this kind of sophistication. They aren't easy to grade because they involve multiple variables that differ on every play.

Even so, if a team is honest and vigilant about identifying what it can – and should – spend time coaching, then it will do a better job scouting prospects. Having this kind of accurate self-assessment of its skills and priorities should help them elevate or reject prospects.

They should focus more on “knockout factors” in their scouting. Even if it’s not formalized in a scouting report or on paper, the better teams have a core identity that each player must match or he’s not on its draft board. The Ravens have it. I believe the Steelers have it. I suspect to some degree the Patriots and Seahawks do, too.

I’ve always considered having “knockout factors” in my scouting reports. Now that I’m almost 10 years into the RSP, I’m closer to incorporating them into my process. The reason I've waited is that a knockout factor has to be obvious.

I wouldn't hire a musician with stage fright for a live performance. I don’t care how great his or her tone, range, rhythm, and phrasing is. I don’t care if he or she won a Grammy and an Oscar. If that person takes the stage, forgets the words, and begins hyperventilating, my decision was a huge mistake...
 
Interesting analysis on what might take a QB out of the running for your team.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: Knockout

I'm not going to lie. I didn't know who Jimmy Garoppolo was until his name popped up a month or so ago. I looked into him & came away impressed. He also had the keys to the Cadillac, free to call the game from the LOS. He's got good size, a good arm, 3.5 year starter, several accolades, good stats... & the game wasn't too big for him, albiet at a much lower level of competition.

I don't know how much stock I want to put into this evaluation. I'd like to see him do a similar exercise for all the QB prospects. Actively looking for their weaknesses & bring attention to those. But... like everyone else, I'm sure he has his favorites & there will be three or four guys with no weaknesses, most likely 1 in particular.

I think the goal is to find a prospect that a particular team believes they can win with. Every team is going to have their own "prototype" From what I've seen of Garoppolo, I wouldn't be surprised if some team believes they can win with him.

I can't see anyone falling in love with him so much that they pick him over several dozen other prospects though.
 
I'm not going to lie. I didn't know who Jimmy Garoppolo was until his name popped up a month or so ago. I looked into him & came away impressed. He also had the keys to the Cadillac, free to call the game from the LOS. He's got good size, a good arm, 3.5 year starter, several accolades, good stats... & the game wasn't too big for him, albiet at a much lower level of competition.

I don't know how much stock I want to put into this evaluation. I'd like to see him do a similar exercise for all the QB prospects. Actively looking for their weaknesses & bring attention to those. But... like everyone else, I'm sure he has his favorites & there will be three or four guys with no weaknesses, most likely 1 in particular.

I think the goal is to find a prospect that a particular team believes they can win with. Every team is going to have their own "prototype" From what I've seen of Garoppolo, I wouldn't be surprised if some team believes they can win with him.

I can't see anyone falling in love with him so much that they pick him over several dozen other prospects though.

Wife asked who he was, I couldn't tell her quick enough before she said, "he's cute" so in regards to your last statement there may be some, lol :thisbig:
 
Perspective...

Greg Gabriel ‏@greggabe
@LRiddickESPN - I hear you. But we all see these orgasms going on by analysts after these so called strong workouts

Louis Riddick ‏@LRiddickESPN
@greggabe If we have not learned the importance of keeping "workouts" in proper context by now, we never will.

Also the coaches find out how well the player responds to their coaching

On a private workout he has no idea what he is going to be asked to do. This is more telling on his ability to react

Most QB's have practiced their pro day script 5-7 times. It becomes second nature. Not a true indicator

Remember JaMarcus Russell and Blaine Gabbert had outstanding pro days. I could list plenty more

QB pro days are rehearsed scripted sessions. They are suppose to make the player look great. When a QB bombs (Teddy) watch out!
 
Louis Riddick ‏@LRiddickESPN
Where/by who this class of 2014 QBs are drafted and coached will largely determine their relative success or failure more than anything else.
 
Louis Riddick ‏@LRiddickESPN
Significant learning curve.

Much more to go on Garoppolo, but from what I see and have been told, he is going to have to be taught from scratch (footwork).
 
Louis Riddick ‏@LRiddickESPN
Where/by who this class of 2014 QBs are drafted and coached will largely determine their relative success or failure more than anything else.​

Looks like we've come full circle.

About this time last year we were saying how this would be a better year to draft a QB, around 26 or so... that there were no sure thing, franchise QBs, but a lot of solid prospects. & here we are.

Several of the teams picking in the top 10 have a need at QB & the closer we got to finalizing the draft order, several QBs started creeping up the boards. One in particular "came out of nowhere"

Now that those top 10 teams have signaled QB may not be taken with a top 5 pick, these QBs start creeping back down to their natural order.
 
Looks like we've come full circle.

About this time last year we were saying how this would be a better year to draft a QB, around 26 or so... that there were no sure thing, franchise QBs, but a lot of solid prospects. & here we are.

Several of the teams picking in the top 10 have a need at QB & the closer we got to finalizing the draft order, several QBs started creeping up the boards. One in particular "came out of nowhere"

Now that those top 10 teams have signaled QB may not be taken with a top 5 pick, these QBs start creeping back down to their natural order.

QB in this year's draft seems no better to me than last years. Going to be a crap shoot, with a number of options but no glaring THIS GUY pick to be made. Just for fun, I've made a partial list of QB's drafted(and rd drafted) in this millineum. They are listed here either because they were a 1st rd pick or have made some level of success. Or have some relavance to this texan fan.

EJ Manuel 1
Andrew Luck* 1
Robbert Griffin 1
Ryan Tannehil 1
Brandon Weeden 1
Russell Wilson 3
Nick Foles 3
Cam Newton* 1
Jake Locker 1
Blain Gabbert 1
Christian Ponder 1
Andy Dalton 2
Colin Kaepernick 2
Sam Bradford* 1
Tim Tebow 1
Matthew Stafford* 1
Mark Sanchez 1
Matt Ryan 1
Joe Flacco 1
Jamarcus Russell* 1
Brady Quinn 1
Vince Young 1
Matt Leinart 1
Jay Cutler 1
Alex Smith* 1
Aaron Rogers 1
Jason Campbell 1
Matt Cassel 7
Ryan Fitzpatrick 7
Eli Manning* 1
Philip Rivers 1
Ben Roethlesberger 1
JP Losman 1
Matt Schaub 3
Carson Palmer* 1
David $%^&* 1
Michael Vick* 1

Looking at the overall #1's9tagged with asterisk), Other than Luck, Newton, Stafford, Eli or Vick, in hindsight, I don't see anyone considered worth debating as 1st overall pick talent. And of those 4, it's probable I wouldn't want but 1 of them as a rookie selection in this year's draft. Who would you put on your list to take? Feel good about this year's draft class making that same list?

Now, browse that above list again, and tell me which of those you would be happy to draft as a rookie with the first over all pick if you could? I see 4, maybe 5 that I would wish similar luck in terms of risk/reward of taking that I would hope we could comparitively achieve with this year's draft class. Understanding that this year's class has yet to suit up, it's speculation, but I'm just not sold on any of them at #1. I feel that IF Houston isn't leaning towards Clowney, then that puts QB at the premium of needs, which 1st pick overall has less value than if a clear front runner was on the board. This years Gem, I feel will be realized, similar to Roethlesberger... We'll still need to pick a QB first round, but I'd rather trade down and take my chances. Now, how far a trade down goes has obvious implications of the scope of available players to pick from, so it's not without risk, but if the trade is there to go down a few spots and gain an additional draft pick(s), I'm thinking this is the year to do it.
 
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Looks like we've come full circle.

About this time last year we were saying how this would be a better year to draft a QB, around 26 or so... that there were no sure thing, franchise QBs, but a lot of solid prospects. & here we are.

Several of the teams picking in the top 10 have a need at QB & the closer we got to finalizing the draft order, several QBs started creeping up the boards. One in particular "came out of nowhere"

Now that those top 10 teams have signaled QB may not be taken with a top 5 pick, these QBs start creeping back down to their natural order.

Some of us have been saying this all along , thing is that there are so damn many teams with a dire need at the position. That puts a real premium on the talent , pushing guys up the overall board despite "overall talent."
 
Some of us have been saying this all along , thing is that there are so damn many teams with a dire need at the position. That puts a real premium on the talent , pushing guys up the overall board despite "overall talent."

Looks like the Texans org is going to have to trade back into the bottom of the 1st rd to get there QB if they go Clowney/Robinson at 1-1.
 
Looking at the overall #1's9tagged with asterisk), Other than Luck, Newton, Stafford, Eli or Vick, in hindsight, I don't see anyone considered worth debating as 1st overall pick talent. And of those 4, it's probable I wouldn't want but 1 of them as a rookie selection in this year's draft. Who would you put on your list to take? Feel good about this year's draft class making that same list?

Wow, there was a lot of discussion of #1 overall for several of the guys you have listed but not tagged.

I would happily take several of them #1 overall if available this year. Seems like you are applying some kind of unrealistic surefire hall of famer standard which if applied equally to other positions would result in almost nobody being worthy of #1 overall.
 
Wow, there was a lot of discussion of #1 overall for several of the guys you have listed but not tagged.

I would happily take several of them #1 overall if available this year. Seems like you are applying some kind of unrealistic surefire hall of famer standard which if applied equally to other positions would result in almost nobody being worthy of #1 overall.

Not directly related to this discussion, but the idea that a guy can be worth the #2 or #3 pick but not the #1 pick is asinine, IMO.
 
From an SI piece:

Posted April 04, 2014
Houston Texans leaning toward quarterback with No. 1 pick, per report

There is plenty of discussion about what direction the Houston Texans will go with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, especially following the pro day of South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.

Many believe that Clowney is the most talented player in the 2014 draft class which could lead to the Texans making him their selection, but those who cover the organization still believe they will take one of the top quarterbacks available.

“I’m still predicting a quarterback, as I have been since the day the 2013 season ended. I believe they’ll select Blake Bortles or Johnny Manziel,” Texans beat writer John McClain of the Houston Chronicle wrote. “It doesn’t matter what anyone outside Reliant Stadium thinks they should do. The only three opinions that matter belong to owner Bob McNair, general manager Rick Smith and coach Bill O’Brien.

“Nothing revitalizes an organization like a quarterback drafted in the first round.”

McClain is as dialed in as they come with Texans news, so his opinion certainly holds some weight.

And we all know that he certainly does hold some weight.:)
 
I hate it when I see that Bob McNair is going to have a say in football decisions.

All the horrible franchises have 'involved' owners.

Raiders, Redskins, Cowboys.... now Texans.

Sign the checks and get the heck out Mr McNair.
 
I hate it when I see that Bob McNair is going to have a say in football decisions.

All the horrible franchises have 'involved' owners.

Raiders, Redskins, Cowboys.... now Texans.

Sign the checks and get the heck out Mr McNair.

The horrible ones are known for having overly involved junior GM or literal GM owners. All franchises have involved owners.

You don't think the Rooneys have their stamp on the Steelers?
 
I hate it when I see that Bob McNair is going to have a say in football decisions.

All the horrible franchises have 'involved' owners.

Raiders, Redskins, Cowboys.... now Texans.

Sign the checks and get the heck out Mr McNair.

The McNair's have put their stamp on their franchise from day 1. (Boselli/Carr) It's a main reason why the Texans are currently sitting at 2-14 with the #1 pick in the draft and still have the same GM who nobody is quite sure what his responsibilities are after 8 yrs.
 
I hate it when I see that Bob McNair is going to have a say in football decisions.

No offense to you, you seem to be a pretty knowledgeable fan. I'm sure you have an opinion on who our next pick should be. I'm sure you had an opinion of when Kubiak should have been let go, or when Rick Smith should be.

If you were the owner of the Texans, I have no doubt in my mind you would stear this organization where you think it needs to be. That's all McNair is doing. He's not "overly" involved, but he's not completely hands off either. He sets the vision.

When his "football people" tell him what they're planning on doing, he's going to let them know if that fits his vision or not.
 
This is a very mixed bag of QB prospects for sure. With recent success of 2nd & 3rd rd. QB's if O'Brian is all that, one of those 10 prospects he mentions will be selected. Best case is trade down, select one, or trade back up if bypassed early then slides to fair value.
 
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