michaelm
vox nihili
10 TDs in 32 catches? That would be quite a TD/reception ratio...
Quite unlikely, I mean.
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1st Round- DeAndre Hopkins WR Texans
- Thread starter AcresHomesTexan
- Start date
10 TDs in 32 catches? That would be quite a TD/reception ratio...
Quite unlikely, I mean.
Fili
Rookie
10 TDs is exceptional. Andre only had 4. OD had 6. Arian Foster ran for 15. I don't think he'll get 10 touchdowns.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Davis was the #3 so is irrelevant whether or not you think he should have started. He was also a 5-6 year vet.
All three of your numbers are off based on history.
41 receptions is a very realistic rookie number. All 3 1st rounders who played last year beat that and a total of 9 rookies did.
15 ypr is not very realistic. AJ was at 14.8 ypr. All 3 1st rounders last year fell short of that with one at 9.8 ypr.
10 TD's is too high. AJ had 4. The best of last year's 1st rounders - 5.
It would be much more realistic to look for about 50 rec. at 12.5 ypr for 625 yds and around 5 TD's.
I don't think you can set the bar for Hopkins based on the rookies last year because their situations are different.
The top two outside receivers were drafted quite higher and were the number one receiver from day one.
Kendall Wright worked out of the slot and saw a lot of short catches.
A J Jenkins was drafted at 29, I think. He barely played and did not have a single catch.
Hilton is another slot receiver. With the Colts attempted 628 passes; Wayne on one side and the speedy Avery on the other, the short routes were there for the taking.
Givens was on the Rams team that doesn't really have a number one receiver.
With AJ on the team, and how the Texans like to distribute the ball to their TEs and RBs, FBs, it's probably more realistic to expect the low 30s for Hopkins.
Anything else is gravy.
The top two outside receivers were drafted quite higher and were the number one receiver from day one.
Kendall Wright worked out of the slot and saw a lot of short catches.
A J Jenkins was drafted at 29, I think. He barely played and did not have a single catch.
Hilton is another slot receiver. With the Colts attempted 628 passes; Wayne on one side and the speedy Avery on the other, the short routes were there for the taking.
Givens was on the Rams team that doesn't really have a number one receiver.
With AJ on the team, and how the Texans like to distribute the ball to their TEs and RBs, FBs, it's probably more realistic to expect the low 30s for Hopkins.
Anything else is gravy.
I'm not looking at any receiver outside of the Houston Texans.
I think Schaub will look for his crutches, I think Kubiak will rotate the WRs an ungodly amount & if he "feels" the pressure to win again, we'll probably see more two TE sets than 3 WR sets.
We'll probably never see 4 WRs
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Who cares if they were drafted higher? They went to lame ass teams with no QB's and handily beat the expectations you guys are setting for Hopkins.
Larry Fitzgerald would like to know when he was demoted from #1 WR. In fact Floyd was the #3 WR in Arizona (he only started 3 games) and still beat your projections.
Wright only starting 5 games and coming in for slot duty works against your argument as he also beat your projections.
Hopkins is going to start and he is going to a team which threw for 700+ yards more than those teams.
The top two guys belong to the category of players drafted higher.
If you think that a guy drafted lower should perform as well as them, you might as well not drafting any player. Just take a guy off the street.
Wright, like I said, belongs to the slot category.
Many of those dump passes are just an extension of the run game.
Hopkins is not going to be used in that fashion here.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Which means crap. Charles Rogers was drafted higher than AJ. More importantly, as I said and you ignored it meant all of them went to crap teams with crap QB's.
Insane non sequitur. If you believe that then you just need to stop watching football. They are in the same ball park - 1st round. Every year actual performance is all over the place.
No he won't. He'll actually be on the field much more so your argument makes no sense.
Floyd played for a bad team with mounting losses; they might as well give the youngsters more playing time to prep for the future.
The two most productive games for him was the last two in the season when they had absolutely nothing to play for.
In two other games against the Packers and some team I don't recall right now, 8 or 9 of his catches were late in the game when it was out of reach (garbage time).
The two most productive games for him was the last two in the season when they had absolutely nothing to play for.
In two other games against the Packers and some team I don't recall right now, 8 or 9 of his catches were late in the game when it was out of reach (garbage time).
To me, each team is different in their system and their philosophy.
Some team incorporate their TEs into the game more; others like to go to their slot receivers.
The total number of pass attempts also needs to be taken into account because some team pass more than others.
Some team has nothing to play for at the mid way point of the season and play young players more.
Some team don't use their rookie WR as much.
Look at how many targets Jacoby, Posey, and Martin had in their first year.
Some team incorporate their TEs into the game more; others like to go to their slot receivers.
The total number of pass attempts also needs to be taken into account because some team pass more than others.
Some team has nothing to play for at the mid way point of the season and play young players more.
Some team don't use their rookie WR as much.
Look at how many targets Jacoby, Posey, and Martin had in their first year.
If all the Texans get out of Hopkins is low 30's reception, that would be a disappointing 1st season.
Of the receivers in this draft, Hopkins is one of the 2 or 3 that are most "pro ready". He is certain to start on a team that attempts on average about 550 passes/season. I would guess that Hopkins would see roughly 1/6th of those targets, with a 60% completion ratio. That would give him about 55 receptions at probably 700-800 yards. 1000 yards is probably too much to expect, considering that only 2 rookie WRs (AJ Green and Anquan Boldin) have gone over that mark in the past 10 seasons.
Here are the numbers from last year:
2012
AJ 112-1598-4
KW 41-518-2
KM 10-85-1
Posey and Jean with 6 each.
Posey only saw action in the last 4 games; he might see the field for 8 games this year (let's assume that for a moment).
As a second year player, he should see more targets.
KMart should also see more targets, supposedly.
So should Jean.
Graham may see more targets as well.
So how many of the 41 passes that went to KW might go to those players?
How many will be left for Hopkins if the Texans continue to give AJ his normal percentage of targets?
2012
AJ 112-1598-4
KW 41-518-2
KM 10-85-1
Posey and Jean with 6 each.
Posey only saw action in the last 4 games; he might see the field for 8 games this year (let's assume that for a moment).
As a second year player, he should see more targets.
KMart should also see more targets, supposedly.
So should Jean.
Graham may see more targets as well.
So how many of the 41 passes that went to KW might go to those players?
How many will be left for Hopkins if the Texans continue to give AJ his normal percentage of targets?
In this offense, all things considered I'm guessing Hopkins has around 800 yards. Not sure about the TD's because that stuff is kind of weird for us.
But I think 700-800 yards (or in that ball park) is doable. If Hopkins proves himself he's not going to be rotating in and out. He's going to be a fixture on the field. And I've criticized Schaub plenty, but him in this offense equals yards being racked up generally speaking.
But I think 700-800 yards (or in that ball park) is doable. If Hopkins proves himself he's not going to be rotating in and out. He's going to be a fixture on the field. And I've criticized Schaub plenty, but him in this offense equals yards being racked up generally speaking.
Maybe they don't, because Hopkins is a more dynamic player. Martin, Jean, and Posey (if and when he sees the field) are likely competing with each other for snaps and targets and not competing with Hopkins.
Let's assume that Hopkins was given all of Walter's snaps (which I personally doubt,) the other guys should at least see the same number of total snaps as a trio.
But with increasing familiarity with the system and the QBs, they should see more targets, even if only a few more.
Hey, but Hopkins can always try to be really effective from the get go to earn Kubiak's trust and end up seeing a lot of targets. It could happen.
I just don't think the percentage should call for the utmost optimistic figures.
I don't see why you don't believe Hopkins will at least get Walter's snaps. The Texans though so much of Walter, they cut him without offering a re-structure. The Texans thought enough of Hopkins to spend a 1st round pick.
powda
The bridge between stupid and useless is short.
If he gets 40 catches and 600-700 yards with maybe 3 tds i'll be thrilled. Hopefully, another downfield threat keeps defenses lose and the entire offense is more productive. I'd love to see big numbers outta him but think instead it will help others more year one.
I think the addition of greg jones has been overlooked and that will help downfield as well as the threat of hopkins. I'm stoked about the offense despite a lack of faith in schaub. On defense we needed a nose tackle. Wont hurt us to much till we face playoff caliber teams...then...well...deja vu.
I think the addition of greg jones has been overlooked and that will help downfield as well as the threat of hopkins. I'm stoked about the offense despite a lack of faith in schaub. On defense we needed a nose tackle. Wont hurt us to much till we face playoff caliber teams...then...well...deja vu.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Not sure why you think the issue is how many will be left for Hopkins. Hopkins is the #2 - the question is how many will be left for the WRs deeper on the roster.
You are confusing targets and receptions. Walter was targeted 68 times and Martin 27, Jean 12 and Posey 14. So only Walter caught more than half the balls thrown to him (and he had an off year at just 60%). I'm sure Kubiak will be pulling his shiny new 1st rounder for the 41% club - one of whom won't even be available to mid-season at best.
One other thing to consider. Casey was targeted 45 times last season. Jones will be lucky to get 10. So there you go, 35 targets to spread around the others.
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The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
There's a couple of different ways they could go about this. BUT. I expect Hopkins to become the #2.
Schaub and Kubiak have said over and over again that the way this offense works (when it's working right), is that everyone runs their routes and the defense determines who gets the ball. I think that's true, to a point. I think that Schaub sometimes forced the ball into AJ even when the defense dictated he go somewhere else simply because he trusted AJ to make a play and he didn't expect that same play out of other guys.
I expect Hopkins to get pushed into the #2 almost immediately. If he learns the playbook and if he shows that he's got good hands, I expect him to get almost as many targets as KW got last year. He might not get as many until he builds up some trust, but I expect him to get a helluva lot more than Posey or Martin got last year.
I think the plan was for Posey to move into that role this year but with his injury, I expect him to get pupped. I don't expect him to be a real "target hog" this year. If Martin steps up and starts catching the ball better, then he'll get more targets as well.
Schaub and Kubiak have said over and over again that the way this offense works (when it's working right), is that everyone runs their routes and the defense determines who gets the ball. I think that's true, to a point. I think that Schaub sometimes forced the ball into AJ even when the defense dictated he go somewhere else simply because he trusted AJ to make a play and he didn't expect that same play out of other guys.
I expect Hopkins to get pushed into the #2 almost immediately. If he learns the playbook and if he shows that he's got good hands, I expect him to get almost as many targets as KW got last year. He might not get as many until he builds up some trust, but I expect him to get a helluva lot more than Posey or Martin got last year.
I think the plan was for Posey to move into that role this year but with his injury, I expect him to get pupped. I don't expect him to be a real "target hog" this year. If Martin steps up and starts catching the ball better, then he'll get more targets as well.
76 I'm not sure where you're coming from on this one. I'm throwing all stats aside here, and just looking at facts alone. Right now Hopkins is our 2nd best receiver on our team. He will be on the field if healthy the majority of the time and will get a ton of targets because he fits this system perfectly.
I don't want to base my expectations of him on strictly numbers because I think his impact is going to be bigger than that. I think he'll force Martin and Jean to step their game up. If they're true competitors then it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a big leap because they see a guy being drafted in the 1st because they're not getting it done. That said, I still don't think they'll beat Hopkins out as our WR2. He'll get plenty of opportunities to make a big impact especially considering Andre won't be able to play every down. We need to rest him probably even more than last year because he'll be a year older.
I don't want to base my expectations of him on strictly numbers because I think his impact is going to be bigger than that. I think he'll force Martin and Jean to step their game up. If they're true competitors then it wouldn't surprise me to see them make a big leap because they see a guy being drafted in the 1st because they're not getting it done. That said, I still don't think they'll beat Hopkins out as our WR2. He'll get plenty of opportunities to make a big impact especially considering Andre won't be able to play every down. We need to rest him probably even more than last year because he'll be a year older.
I don't understand comparing him to Martin, Jean and Walter.
We spent a first round pick on this guy. This is the highest kubiak and smith have ever drafted a WR.
The expectations of how he'll be used in this offense shouldn't be based on what all these lower end pieces have done.
It'd be like drafting eifert this year and saying he'd take Garret grahms production. Football isn't played on a pie chart. There isn't some set number if targets alloted to each position group.
All things considered, I wouldn't be worried about Hopkins having to find targets...LeStar Jean, posey, Keshawn Martin...those are the guys who's numbers might go down because you've inserted a much more talented player ahead of them.
We spent a first round pick on this guy. This is the highest kubiak and smith have ever drafted a WR.
The expectations of how he'll be used in this offense shouldn't be based on what all these lower end pieces have done.
It'd be like drafting eifert this year and saying he'd take Garret grahms production. Football isn't played on a pie chart. There isn't some set number if targets alloted to each position group.
All things considered, I wouldn't be worried about Hopkins having to find targets...LeStar Jean, posey, Keshawn Martin...those are the guys who's numbers might go down because you've inserted a much more talented player ahead of them.
Señor Stan
El Guapo
I expect Hopkins to be open more often than the Walter, Jean, Martin, etc...
drs23
Veteran
Man, I don't see how you can rationalize so blatantly with a statement like that. None of those guys were 1st round picks and it makes a difference if you want to accept it as fact or not. Hopkins has been touted as the most "pro ready" receiver in the draft by the heads and our GM and HC as well. If you think he's going to see less targets than all these guys you have listed ahead of him then I'm just SMH.
I think that stance is some pretty weak sauces.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
In the first game.
HOU-TEX
Ah, Football!
Nah, he's just a rookie. That's at our bye
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I find your lack of faith disturbing.
Happy? Hell, we'd all be orgas.. ummm... I mean, very delighted with those numbers.
What have I told you about neglecting the visuals when using Star Wars quotes...??
badboy
Hall of Fame
I enjoyed reading this:
In a show of leadership, Schaub texted Hopkins after he was drafted on Thursday night around 10 p.m. CT.
Its very important (to do) for all the picks, but especially an early pick and being an offensive guy and someone that were going to be joined here for a while between me, him and Dre (Andre Johnson) and Arian (Foster), Schaub said. So I just wanted to welcome him and let him know that theres a lot of work ahead.
Schaub said he was lying around at home after he texted Hopkins. He didnt expect to get a call back at such a late hour amid the chaos Hopkins was dealing after being selected.
The type of kid that he is, he called me back about five minutes later and we talked for about 10 minutes, Schaub said. Just shows his character and what hes all about.
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dahHV?...medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=houston-texans
In a show of leadership, Schaub texted Hopkins after he was drafted on Thursday night around 10 p.m. CT.
Its very important (to do) for all the picks, but especially an early pick and being an offensive guy and someone that were going to be joined here for a while between me, him and Dre (Andre Johnson) and Arian (Foster), Schaub said. So I just wanted to welcome him and let him know that theres a lot of work ahead.
Schaub said he was lying around at home after he texted Hopkins. He didnt expect to get a call back at such a late hour amid the chaos Hopkins was dealing after being selected.
The type of kid that he is, he called me back about five minutes later and we talked for about 10 minutes, Schaub said. Just shows his character and what hes all about.
http://bleacherreport.com/tb/dahHV?...medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=houston-texans
Señor Stan;2160009 said:
Matt needs to believe that Hopkins will be open. Then he has to believe the ball will be caught. At the very least, he has to believe Hopkins will prevent the ball from going to the other team (hence why Schaub will put the ball right on OD or KDub, but put the ball where only LeStar or Jacoby can get it if they make a play).
& that's only if Hopkins can get on the field. He's got to grasp & understand the play book. He has to be a willful blocker, & heaven forbid he yawns at a team meeting & get stuffed in the dog house, or shows up late at a meeting & the team plane leaves him.
Remember, the talented Mr. Foster couldn't beat Chris Brown for a roster spot. Sure Foster was undrafted, but he was still more talented than Brown. Surely he grasped the play book as well as Brown. Surely he understood the play book. Surely he protected the ball as much as "don't throw it if it's not there on the half-back pass" Brown.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
I'm with you up until this tirade.
Arian himself has said he had a bad work ethic and a bad attitude when he came to the Texans. Do I think he grasped the play book as well as Chris Brown? No, I don't. I don't think Arian was applying himself. I don't think he was studying hard. I think he had given up and was planning on hitting it hard the next year. He's pretty much said as much. He didn't know that a practice squad player could be moved up to the main squad until he was watching MNF and they mentioned some PS player getting a chance.
At that point, Arian started applying himself. And when he started showing signs of "getting it" in practice, he started getting time on the field.
Up until that point, he was not ready to play. Doesn't matter how talented he was, he was not ready to play.
beerlover
Hall of Fame
I'm good, really good with the Hopkins kid. But you know me I just wanted to do some comparisons with other top WR performances from the combine just to get a sense of their respective measureable.
Hopkins 6010 214, ran a 4.46 33 3/8" arms 10" hands & 36" vertical.
Hunter 6040 197, ran 4.37 33 1/4" arms 9 3/8" hands & 39.5 vertical.
Dez Bryant 6014 224, ran 4.52 34" arms 9 3/4" hands & 38" vertical.
AJ Green, 6035 211, ran 4.50 34 3/8" arms 9 1/4" hands & 34.5" vertical.
Julio Jones, 6026 220, ran 4.39 33 3/4" arms 9 3/4" arms & 38.5 vertical.
Those are first round grade measureables for WR position. Gotta feel good about DeAndre fitting right in here. Nailing WR position is as hard as it gets. Adding Texans Worthy factor even harder which says a lot about what this staff thinks about him.
Hopkins 6010 214, ran a 4.46 33 3/8" arms 10" hands & 36" vertical.
Hunter 6040 197, ran 4.37 33 1/4" arms 9 3/8" hands & 39.5 vertical.
Dez Bryant 6014 224, ran 4.52 34" arms 9 3/4" hands & 38" vertical.
AJ Green, 6035 211, ran 4.50 34 3/8" arms 9 1/4" hands & 34.5" vertical.
Julio Jones, 6026 220, ran 4.39 33 3/4" arms 9 3/4" arms & 38.5 vertical.
Those are first round grade measureables for WR position. Gotta feel good about DeAndre fitting right in here. Nailing WR position is as hard as it gets. Adding Texans Worthy factor even harder which says a lot about what this staff thinks about him.
TejasTom
All Pro
Thanks for listing those, makes feel even better about this pick.
NFL.com has Hopkins running a 4.57 and Hunter a 4.44. Not that I think it matters, but if you're going to make comparisons, they should at least be accurate.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Hopkins ran 4.41 & 4.46 at his Pro Day according to ESPN: http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/st...-clemson-tigers-runs-40-yard-dash-441-seconds
OK, but that's not an apples-to-apples comparison to the other WRs whose numbers are from the combine. Which is why comparing these numbers is pretty much fruitless.
The point is still the same. We don't know if Hopkins is "pro" enough for Kubiak. That's all I'm saying. Doesn't matter if Hopkins gives us the best shot to win. If Kubiak doesn't like his preparation, kid won't see the field.
I don't remember hearing Arian say any of that. I thought he was on a mission the minute he went undrafted.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
Nope.
He's talked about this and he's admitted he was depressed and upset and sulking. He'd pretty much given up getting onto the field that season.
Seeing that a guy can go from the Practice Squad to the real team is one of the big things that lit a fire under his ass and got him going. IIRC, the other was a conversation with Kubiak where Kubes said, "Show me you're ready in practice and I'll put you on the field." or something to that effect. The MNF crew even patted themselves on the back for it at one point.
We talked about it a lot on Texans Talk back in the day after it came out because up until that point, quite a few people were pissed off that Arian hadn't seen the field sooner.
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
As long as this guy continues to work hard, he'll get the majority of snaps at #2, until he makes a gaff on or off the field and Kubiak gives him a "lesson"
Sounds like Kubiak isn't giving him anything. He'll still have to prove the spot is his & that includes "being a pro".
Again, I have no doubt that the expectation was to start him right away.
They took Kareem at 20 and he started every game that season. They also didn't have any better option, but they did reduce his snaps once we picked up Jason Allen.
Duane Brown, 26th overall, started every game... but didn't take every snap. Again, no better option on the team.
Brian Cushing 15th overall, Jj Watt 11th... both started as rookies same as Mario Williams & Demeco Ryans.... but what options did we have?
Whitney Mercilus; 26th overall started 4 games. We had options.
We may not have "good" options at WR2 other than Hopkins, but we can see a lot of Martin & LeStar (like Ephraim Salaam, & Jason Allen) & Two tightend sets.
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
I suppose we could, but I doubt Martin or LeStar are going to be taking any snaps from Hopkins or Johnson unless they need a breather.
Hopkins is way more talented than any WR on our roster outside of Andre. Additionally, he hasn't played a down in the NFL and he has proven just as much as Martin and LeStar have in the NFL. Absolutely nothing.
Kubiak's quotes to me say, "he was taken to start and that is what he is going to do, unless he comes in here and is not a pro at all, which is not at all what I expect."
I see it the same way. Just throwing it out there. There are a few reasons Hopkins may not perform the way we hope, there always is.
Matt's trust issues
Hopkins' ability to learn the play book
Kubiak's dog house
TexansSeminole
Hall of Fame
I think the most likely thing to keep him off the field is injury. Wouldn't that be terrible to finally have a #2, but....ok I will stop talking about it.
Clemson's playbook is crazy versatile. He ran all kinds of routes and did all kinds of things for them. I'm pretty sure he even completed a 2 point conversion pass to Tajh Boyd, if I remember correctly. I don't really worry about his ability to learn the play book, but that's all assumption based on his involvement in the Clemson offense.
Kubiak's dog house could easily get him if he starts dropping balls left and right, but this guy is known for having elite type of hands.
If Posey was not injured, I would think that the two would compete. But even in such a situation, I would expect Hopkins to win that battle pretty easily, to be honest. That's all opinion though, obviously.
Texan_Bill
Hall of Fame
Holy SHYTE!! You are still alive you old Curmudgeon!! Give me a call you old bastage!!
*ahem* Back on topic, this guy could not only be a great compliment to'Dre but also be the future "feature" receiver for the Texans... Someone (and I apologize for not remembering who) posted a link to "Sports Science: DeAndre Hopkins" which was AWESOME!!!
If you have any doubts, watch that video on YouTube