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ProFootballFocus, ReFocused -- Cinncinnati@Houston
- Thread starter Playoffs
- Start date
That's my favorite Line of the whole article. "Houston getting back to doing what they do well - run the ball & put the QB under pressure."
That's Houston Texans football. That's Gary-ball. That's our only shot to win next week, our only shot to win it all.
We did not play well enough to beat the Patriots. But that game was a statement game, "We're Back!!"
Thorn
Dirty Old Man
Agreed. I just wish Tate would suddenly come back to his effective style he had last year. If Tate could pound the ball like last year, it would be hard to beat the Texans.
noxiousdog
Rookie
I think Tate has really poor vision. When the holes were big enough to drive trucks through, he had no choice but to find them. This year? Not so much.
You'll notice that they don't run as much inside with Tate. It's almost all tosses and sweeps giving him no options of where to run.
I think Tate's been hurt all year. Even when they said he was healthy.... he wasn't & isn't.
The Pencil Neck
Hall of Fame
If Tate's going to continue to be a non-factor, I wouldn't mind seeing a few touches going to Forsett.
Hard to get Foster out of the lineup, though.
Hard to get Foster out of the lineup, though.
b0ng
Bad Hombre
You can say it's a good sign, but once we start finishing in the RZ, we will then truly be back. Especially if we start causing defensive turnovers again.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
This is a mid October 2012 piece from ADVANCEDNFLSTATS.COM that could explain why we can have a great RB, but still struggle to look like a winning team......or, for that matter, consistently win against higher competition, without having a passing game that is not reliable beyond 10 yards.
Running to Create a 'Manageable' 3rd Down Is Self-Defeating
One of the common defenses of a run-heavy offense is that offenses need to make their third downs manageable, meaning short enough so that conversion is easier. The thinking goes that if an offense runs on either or both first and second down, it is relatively assured of shorter rather than longer distances on third down. At first look, this makes a lot of sense. After all, who wants to face third and long?
There are two problems with this argument. The first is that football is not a game of piling up first downs. The days of inching toward the goal line on 18-play drives are long gone if they ever existed at all. Football is, for the most part, a game of maximizing score differential, and the concept of Expected Points shows that NFL offenses are generally running too often on first and second down.
The second problem is that even if gaining a first down is the primary objective, running on first down is becoming a worse idea every year. The graph below shows that passing on first down leads to a conversion more often than running on first down. As usual, I limited the data to plays in normal football situations, when the score is relatively close and time is not yet a factor at the end of either half.
Further graph analysis is available in the link posted above.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
His graphs don't support either of his assertions.
Well.... they show you are less likely to pick up a first down if you cant gain a yard.
Fred
Veteran
So in 2000 teams that ran the on 3rd down picked up the 1st down more than 60% of the time? I call BS on that data point.
Fred
Veteran
On second thought this could be possible. If Kubiak was not calling plays that year, maybe the entire league only ran the ball 8 times on third and 10, and due to the susprise factor 5 of the runs went for a first down. But throw in about 50 Kubiak draw plays and I think the percentage drops.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Our pass/run ratio on first down this year in the first half is 138/113
The Pats is at 146/110
The Broncos is at 124/130
So basically, the Broncos are in deep shzzz.
You have to go deeper into the numbers to explain why the patterns may not follow success.......like the efficiency of the QB. Like a QB that has a problem in general throwing completed passes past the 10 yd mark.
Brady 34 TDs 8 INTs
Peyton 37 TDs 11 INTs
Schaub 22 TDs 12 INTs
Doc... you know this is not a problem Schaub has had throughout his career. Some are making it sound like he is David Carr or something.
Schaub's numbers beyond 10 yards are as good as anyone in the league & has been throughout his career.
The only reason Schaub hasn't had the winning numbers those guys have had is the same reason Andre hasn't.
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
He is NOT David Carr. It is a problem that he's had this year.
I'm going to post this piece on 2012 QB performances that just came out by FOOTBALLOUTSIDERS. And pay special attention to DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average). And look at where Brady and Peyton sit vs Schaub.
Doc, I was not trying to compare QBs; that was why I used team names.
According to Brian Burke, his theory is that running on first down is bad strategy.
I show that the Texans passed more on first down in the first half than the Broncos so that theory implies that the Texans followed the good strategy and not the other way around.
I think that chart says exactly what I've been saying about Matt Schaub for a few years now. They have him middle of the pack in total value & on a per play basis.
I'd like to see what Peyton's numbers looked like when the Edge was tearing it up in Indy. Partly because Matt hasn't been asked to do so much the last couple of years.
& I get that.
But every now & then, I'd like to see that 2009 Matt Schaub. That guy was ranked 6th by FO. Behind Brady, Rivers, Manning,Brees, & Favre.
Ahead of Romo, Roethlisberger, Rogers, Manning, & Warner.
eriadoc
Texan-American
I think where people are coming from on this is based on the fact that Carr did some good things his first 2.5 years. He showed potential and he had a helluva lot more raw skill than Schaub possesses. But somewhere in the middle of the '04 season, it was like going over the top of a roller coaster. The bottom just dropped out on him. He stopped showing any improvement and played like crap. A lot of people spent a lot of time trying to figure out why and a lot of people spent a lot of time and energy defending him. In retrospect, the tipping point is pretty clear. So some people are questioning now, "Have we experienced the tipping point on Schaub?"
*shrug*
I know that Schaub was kept really clean this week and didn't do anything to make me think he's a good QB right now. He's been better in the past. We don't have that guy anymore. Some of y'all seem to think the Schaub of old is going to magically resurface ... well, I hope so, because the playoffs are on the line. But recent trends suggest otherwise.
Schaub got the ball out quickly when he was under pressure. I think he deserves some credit there.
eriadoc
Texan-American
So did Carr in the 2005 season. In fact, he set the record for completions in a row that year. From the PFF piece:
Now, to be clear, I am not comparing Schaub to Carr at all. But let's not start bending over backwards to try and make the guy look better than he really is. Right NOW, the guy is just not a good QB. He may not be awful, but he was kept a helluva lot cleaner than most games and he just checked down all day.
Stop entrenching yourself in defending Schaub and just recognize the reality of it.
Surreal McCoy
Rookie
The PFF article (and they are not remotely scientific in their ratings) doesn't take into account the defenses being played. If it's cover 2, or some variant thereof, then dinking and dunking is the right way to attack it given our personnel.
I am not defending Schaub, nor do I attack him.
I simply call things as I saw it.
You have to remember that some 3 years ago, when some folks suggested that Schaub was clearly in the top ten, I disagreed.
I said he was borderline.
Nothing has changed for me, except we have to take into account the young talents that have been growing or are in the growing process.
To me, Schaub peaked last year, and seems to be in "plateau out" mode.
Now, Jaworski rated Schaub at number 9 in his final ranking for this year.
It was just one man'a opinion, but it does carry some weight, because obviously Jaws know QBs better than most if not all of us on this MB.
For me to put him somewhere between 11-15 is not as far-fetched as those who put him below average or worse.
But of course, you can have your opinion just like anybody else.
eriadoc
Texan-American
For me to say that he's not 11-15 over the past six games is not far fetched at all. See, that's the thing about rankings. There are long term rankings and there are in the moment rankings. Schaub is not playing as well as he did earlier this season. Schaub is not playing as well as he did last season. Schaub not playing as well as he did earlier this season is a BIG part of why the Texans have struggled the last six weeks or so. They're not converting in the red zone, they're not attacking down the field (at least accurately), and when he is under pressure, the play is over 90% of the time. It's a team game, and of course there are factors that go into this, but Schaub is one of the biggest factors.
Guilty......
& I don't think I've been shy about it. I want that guy from 2009. But some of these comments are making it sound like this 6 game streak he is on has been the norm for the last three years (2010, 2011, 2012) & it hasn't. He's never been Brady/Rogers.... most likely never will be. But the guy who started 2012 was good enough to get to & possibly win a Super Bowl. Don't think he would have been MVP, we'd need that 2009 guy for that.
But this guy has some pretty good talent around him. Andre, Arian, Duane, Watt, not to mention the second tier guys; Jjo, KJax, Antonio, OD, Myers...... we don't have probowlers at every corner, but damn near.
If there's some way for us to get a franchise QB next season, I'm all for it. I don't care about hurting Schaub's feelings. But he's played well enough this year to get us there at some point this year..... not lately.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
I agree. He's somewhere better than ~⅔ of league QBs and worse than ~⅓ of them. I do think the foot is an issue and he's sliding. I don't think we have a long term solution to replacing Schaub.
For the whole season, I'm more inclined toward the number 11 for Schaub.
For the last few games, it was toward the number 15 spot.
Now if you tell me that you had watched all the QBs plays in the last 5-6 games, whatever, than it would make more sense, but I'm sure you didn't.
And neither did I.
However, with the state of the many non-playoff teams, it is easier to find poor or subpar QB play.
You can try to put a ranking on Schaub, let's say #24 in the last 5 games (or whatever number you choose) . It will be much easier for me to find more than 8 QBs that played poorer than Schaub than you can find 23 QBs that played better.
badboy
Hall of Fame
Isn't the line at the end about Brown not being the only lineman not to give up a sack, hit or hurry a bit misleading? IIRC there were no sacks. It makes Brown look good (which he was) but sort of implies the other guys did not do so well. Factual but misleading.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
Each is a black mark. No O-lineman on either side was "clean" other than Brown.
For all WC games, Brown graded higher than any other lineman.
Our pass/run ratio on first down this year in the first half is 138/113
The Pats is at 146/110
The Broncos is at 124/130
So basically, the Broncos are in deep shzzz.
And on second down in the first half, we actually passed the ball more than the Patriots (as a percentage).
Both teams attempted the same number of passes, but the Pats ran 7 more times than us.
Our pass/run ratio on first down this year in the first half is 138/113
The Pats is at 146/110
The Broncos is at 124/130
So basically, the Broncos are in deep shzzz.
In conclusion, the "wisdom thinking" that Gary Kubiak is too conservative in his play-calling is not supported by what actually happened on the field.
Or you can say that the Bill Belichick is just as conservative as Kubiak.
I agree we need to look at now not years ago. I have said this before and I still believe it ," he is hurt". Either arm/shoulder injury or he can't put his weight where it needs to be because of his foot.
Something has changed recently. He never has had a great arm but now his whole motion seems to be different.
I hope it is an injury issue because at least there is hope for next year when he is healthy again.
I think the brain trust made a huge mistake in extending him before seeing how he held up throughout the season.
You may also add that Brady audibles to the run when he sees the defense.
It is much easier to pass when the d is set up for the run or vice versa.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
You may also add that Schaub audibles to the run as well.
Texans_Chick
Utopian Dreamer
The Texans have inexperienced players at two offensive line positions. His WR 3-5 have catch rates less than 55%. Strategically, do you really want him to throw down field a lot? Especially when your defense is playing well, and the opponent probably needs you to make offensive mistakes to win?
The Texans pay a lot of attention to down and distance because that's the key to what makes their offense go. They take shots downfield selectively based on what the defense is doing, and how much risk they feel they need to take against opposing offenses. They get defenses cheating certain ways, and then try to exploit for the big play.
Typically, the Schaub is pretty good at YPC, and Andre Johnson has huge YPC for someone who has as many receptions as he has had this year.
Typically, deep in redzone, they prefer to run the ball because they can. See e.g. Arian Foster. So this tends to decrease opportunities for QB TDs.
Looking at general NFL statistics to make conclusions about the Texans offense isn't helpful. It is also not helpful to compare Matt Schaub to future Hall of Famers Brady and Manning. He doesn't need to be that because he is not that--he needs to be efficient Matt that distributes the ball to open guy and doesn't make too many mistakes. Pressing doesn't help, but infallibility is a lot to expect because everyone makes mistakes, you just have to try to not make them bigger.
OTOH, the Texans have a number of players on their team that if they keep playing the way they are, may some day be the foundation of the Texans section of the HoF. So you play to your strengths.