Grantland: Texans to finish with best record in NFL, Foster goes over 370

[DaTruthExplodes]

Second Half Predictions


1. The Texans finish with the best record in football. If I have to pick a win total, I'll go with 13, but I expect the 6-1 Texans to finish with the league's best record by the time the regular season is over. Houston finishes the first half of the season with the best point differential in the league, even while giving up a game played to teams who haven't yet had a bye. Their schedule over the second half isn't particularly challenging, as they still have four games to come against their own division, plus matchups with the Bills and Lions (albeit with trips to Chicago and New England in store). Houston's good at everything and, outside of one bad performance against the Packers, has consistently looked as good as anyone else in football. One thing they might want to watch out for, though …

2. Arian Foster will go over 370 carries. The "Curse of 370" is a controversial argument in football nerd circles. It theorizes that a running back who gets 370 carries or more in a given season is significantly more likely to break down with an injury or suffer a dramatic decline in performance during the subsequent season than one whose workload is better managed. Others accuse it of being arbitrarily defined and mathematically unsound. Does this sound like an exciting debate to you? It does to me, so I'll tell you what I think: There's nothing meaningful about the 370th carry that turns some muscle into jelly months down the road like the Dim Mak death punch, but there's also no reason to give a running back an excessive number of carries in 2012. That seems reasonable, right?

Arian Foster, though, is on pace to break 370. If he maintains his current workload, he'll hit 384 carries, which will place him just above the threshold and make him a qualifier for the vaunted curse. With backup Ben Tate struggling with a nagging hamstring injury and third-stringer Justin Forsett new to the backfield, the Texans have been comfortable leaning on Foster, week after week, with an unprecedented workload. Perhaps owing to a combination of the workload and the offseason changes made to his offensive line, Foster's been far less efficient this year;1 after averaging 4.7 yards per carry over his first three seasons in the league, he's down to a rushing average of 3.9 yards this year.

Regardless of whether you believe in the Curse of 370, it's clear that the Texans could find some space to give Foster a breather and get much-needed reps for another back. Take one obvious split as an example. When the Texans have been up 14 points or more in the fourth quarter this season, Foster's carried the ball 27 times. That's one-sixth of his workload, coming in situations in which the Texans have basically already sealed the game. He's not doing much with those carries beyond running into the line, either, as he's averaging a mere 3.1 yards per attempt on those carries. If the Texans merely hand those duties off to Forsett or a returning Tate, they'll save valuable wear and tear on a player who just entered the first year of his contract extension with the team. They might even avoid cursing him in the process. Given Tate's injury and Houston's indifference toward the situation, I think Foster hits 370.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8582735/a-prognostications-rest-nfl-season

 

[TexanSam]

I hope we go up by 21+ at halftime on Sunday and take Foster out of the game with only 10 or 12 carries.

 

[rmartin65]

I hope we go up by 21+ at halftime on Sunday and take Foster out of the game with only 10 or 12 carries.

That would be great. The 370 rule, while not batting 100%, has some validity. Just a quick google search pulls up a Football Outsiders article from 2007 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2007/370-carries-revisited) which studies the phenomenon, finding that 8 of the 14 backs that qualify for their study have significantly less success the following season.

 

[badboy]

Foster has had a couple weeks to rest so should handle a load vs Bills. Then Tate should be back to take some work, but IMO I'd like to see Forsett break loose & make a statement why he should at least be a #2 for some team. Hopefully, Kubes gives him a chance against Buffalo. He could get close to 100 yds.

 

[GP]

But he's not eating meat anymore, so the 370 rule is not an issue.

I mean, dudes, he's eating clean now. He's got this.

Oh wait, what? Being vegan isn't a deflector shield against EVERYTHING???

 

[Lucky]

But he's not eating meat anymore, so the 370 rule is not an issue.

I mean, dudes, he's eating clean now. He's got this.

Oh wait, what? Being vegan isn't a deflector shield against EVERYTHING???

 

[Thorn]

But he's not eating meat anymore, so the 370 rule is not an issue.

I mean, dudes, he's eating clean now. He's got this.

Oh wait, what? Being vegan isn't a deflector shield against EVERYTHING???

If I didn't love fried chicken so much, I could live off salads and fruit the rest of my life. Nothing wrong with veggies.

 

[GP]

 

[GP]

If I didn't love fried chicken so much, I could live off salads and fruit the rest of my life. Nothing wrong with veggies.

Thorn, you can't eat salads if you douse it with Ranch dressing. And you can't eat fruit if you're soaking it in three cups of white sugar in the fridge overnight!

Yeah, it's all that damn fried chicken's fault. Or you'd be vegan too.

 

[Thorn]

Dear GP,

You are full of $h!t, but I still like you anyway.

Signed,

Honey Mustard dressing an nekkid fruit.

 

[GP]

Dear GP,

You are full of $h!t, but I still like you anyway.

Signed,

Honey Mustard dressing an nekkid fruit.

Says I'm full of $hit...likes me anyway...means Thorn is full of $hit too! Ha ha ha! Just kidding.

 

[EllisUnit]

All i know is MOST body builders eat meat, it make you strong . It may just be me but i see a big difference in him this season compared to his first 2 seasons with us. He just dont look or run the same.

Hell he used to be the king at breaking tackles and making people miss, the guy is going down so easily that if he was to walk through my lawn he would have to crawl cause he wouldnt be able to stay on his feet. Just saying.

 

[GP]

All i know is MOST body builders eat meat, it make you strong . It may just be me but i see a big difference in him this season compared to his first 2 seasons with us. He just dont look or run the same.

Hell he used to be the king at breaking tackles and making people miss, the guy is going down so easily that if he was to walk through my lawn he would have to crawl cause he wouldnt be able to stay on his feet. Just saying.

I guess we're all alone on this.

I agree with you, he takes an arm tackle to the thigh and he's down at the LOS. It's not the same as previous years. The agility is still there, the burst and the acceleration isn't. And the strength to power through arm tackles isn't, either.

 

[Texas T]

All i know is MOST body builders eat meat, it make you strong . It may just be me but i see a big difference in him this season compared to his first 2 seasons with us. He just dont look or run the same.

Hell he used to be the king at breaking tackles and making people miss, the guy is going down so easily that if he was to walk through my lawn he would have to crawl cause he wouldnt be able to stay on his feet. Just saying.

I think it must be something else. Tony Gonzalez has been a Vegan since 2007 and it hasn't seemed to hurt him. He's even gotten better since then.

He is not running/breaking tackles as well as last year, there I agree, but I really don't think it has anything to do with his being a vegan.

 

[EllisUnit]

I think it must be something else. Tony Gonzalez has been a Vegan since 2007 and it hasn't seemed to hurt him. He's even gotten better since then.

He is not running/breaking tackles as well as last year, there I agree, but I really don't think it has anything to do with his being a vegan.

But a Te dont have to run the ball through a 7 man box and juke/break tackles nearly every play or have the burst to hit a hole that will only be open for 1 second. The positions are 2 different animals.

 

[Texanmike02]

Who cares. Anything less than a SB appearance is a failure so we should just start talking about our SB opponent.

Mike

 

[EVOLVIST]

Jesus, I can't believe this has turned into another vegan thread.

The point is, and I've been saying it for awhile, that with the lead there's no reason Foster should be carrying the rock in the 4th quarter. We have other proven back who can do it. Moreover, the fact that Foster has been nearly absent from designed passing plays to get him the ball in the open field is a little disconcerting.

 

[PandapuffTexan]

I think it must be something else. Tony Gonzalez has been a Vegan since 2007 and it hasn't seemed to hurt him. He's even gotten better since then.

He is not running/breaking tackles as well as last year, there I agree, but I really don't think it has anything to do with his being a vegan.

vegans can get enough calories and protien... nuts have a crap load of calories fat and protien enough mixed with other natural foods can power a athlete..I blame change in offensive line

 

[GP]

vegans can get enough calories and protien... nuts have a crap load of calories fat and protien enough mixed with other natural foods can power a athlete..I blame change in offensive line

I had a pickup in the 1990s that had a spare tank in the bed, it was a propane tank.

Switch near the steering wheel allowed me to toggle between regular gasoline and propane.

When I would haul horses to rodeos, I'd run on the propane when the road was flat/level....but for climbing hills I'd have to toggle to gasoline.

Why? Because gasoline has more carbons than propane. Both are technically FUELS but one fuel gives you more horsepower, acceleration, staying power.

Guess what else? Propane, because it has less carbons than gasoline, burns cleaner in your cylinders than gasoline...meaning it's better for the longevity of your cylinders.

There's two separate parallels concerning fuel types in vehicles and humans. Both examples fit the whole animal protein vs. plant protein situation.

Now tell me again how all FUELS are created equal. Cuz I don't buy that the two protein types are equal.

All you Science First guys are so high on new discoveries that you're ignoring the evidence (Foster now vs. two previous years) that's right there on the field. If he can't launch into a great performance against the Bills' porous run defense, I'll be further convinced its a problem. He looks different.

 

[EllisUnit]

vegans can get enough calories and protien... nuts have a crap load of calories fat and protien enough mixed with other natural foods can power a athlete..I blame change in offensive line

yes there are supliments you can take, but i am by no means a pro body builder but i def work out a lot and i can tell you that it is virtually impossible to get all the protein and other nutrients a body needs from over the counter stuff. The best source of protein comes from meat. Sure i doubt his body is lacking anything but i can tell you that its not getting as much as it was before. Muscles break down when you work out and protein is what actually rebuilds muscle.

Which IMO explains his lack of breaking tackles and going down so easily. This is just my opinion but i see a difference and if u add it all up it looks like perfect math to me.

 

[Perki-Perk]

Unfortunately, the truth never seems to explode and we have once again, witnessed a dud. :wadepalm:

 

[PandapuffTexan]

Im thinking foster is more worried about being there for his family in long haul, I do feel over the years we will see a decline in his performance but luckily we have two running backs that could be starters any where else.

 

[hradhak]

I think it is a definite problem. I dunno if 370 is the magic number, but I very much worry that we are using Foster up. At this point I think he and Tate should be getting equal reps.

I do think Foster tends to avoid contact, but I don't think that's enough to slow the pace of wearing down.

 

[Bulls on Parade]

yes there are supliments you can take, but i am by no means a pro body builder but i def work out a lot and i can tell you that it is virtually impossible to get all the protein and other nutrients a body needs from over the counter stuff. The best source of protein comes from meat. Sure i doubt his body is lacking anything but i can tell you that its not getting as much as it was before. Muscles break down when you work out and protein is what actually rebuilds muscle.

Which IMO explains his lack of breaking tackles and going down so easily. This is just my opinion but i see a difference and if u add it all up it looks like perfect math to me.

I was never a fan of Arian Foster going Vegan in the first place. It has obviously affected his running this season. He's not looking like a top three back. Take away the TD totals and he's not even having that great of a season that I expected. 3.9 yards per carry is very bad and only 12 receptions this late in the year?

That game against the Packers when he had 17 carries for 29 yards on primetime TV still lingers inside of my mind because it was quite embarrassing. I have a few friends who are Green Bay fans who still laugh at me and call me crazy when I mention Arian Foster is the best running back in the league. I had predicted him to win the 2012 NFL MVP award and he's not even going to be close in the voting.

Somebody needs to tell Arian Foster to eat his big juicy steaks and eggs. Grab yourself a big bowl of delicious Fruitty Pebbles this morning with a lot of milk. That stuff is healthy. Going Vegan is not healthy, especially for a pro athlete playing running back in the NFL because of how short their careers are on average. His body is likely begging for some good meat and milk right about now. If he had that in his system I bet he would have a 150-yard rushing, 100-yard receiving and 3 TD game against Buffalo.

 

[Thorn]

Somebody needs to tell Arian Foster to eat his big juicy steaks and eggs. Grab yourself a big bowl of delicious Fruitty Pebbles this morning with a lot of milk. That stuff is healthy. Going Vegan is not healthy, especially for a pro athlete playing running back in the NFL because of how short their careers are on average. His body is likely begging for some good meat and milk right about now. If he had that in his system I bet he would have a 150-yard rushing, 100-yard receiving and 3 TD game against Buffalo.

You are obviously ignorant of the health benefits of a properly planned vegan diet. The dangers in vegan diets comes when people do not do their homework and plan their diets correctly. I very much doubt Foster is doing this blindly. You can get all the protein and carbs you desire from a proper vegan diet.

I must add, my own personal preferance, would never to be a vegan as I couldn't give up meat. But, to each his own. And diet is a personal thing anyway.

But saying going vegan is not healthy just means you have no idea of what you are talking about.

 

[EllisUnit]

You are obviously ignorant of the health benefits of a properly planned vegan diet. The dangers in vegan diets comes when people do not do their homework and plan their diets correctly. I very much doubt Foster is doing this blindly. You can get all the protein and carbs you desire from a proper vegan diet.

I must add, my own personal preferance, would never to be a vegan as I couldn't give up meat. But, to each his own. And diet is a personal thing anyway.

But saying going vegan is not healthy just means you have no idea of what you are talking about.

Going vegan is a very heathly lifestyle no doubt. Now for someone who has an 8-5 job and runs for exercise it is def the healthiest life style you can have. I am not saying that foster isnt thinking about his family in the long run, which is great and more power to him. BUT with all that said Fosters life style and how he has played the game with agility and POWER a vegan lifestyle is not ideal.

Sure he can get most of the nutrients he needs in other forms, BUT there is a difference in getting the bare minimum and then getting what it actually takes to keep you strong and getting stronger. I am at work until 11, so i make it home in time for the game. But i want you to just look at the guys arms from 2 seasons ago to now, you can see a difference.

Now this is all opinion of course but like i have said whenever i want to get cut and lean i stop eating meat and i take suppliments to give me the bare minimum of nutrients i need, and then when it comes time to bulk up again what do you think puts on the pounds and muscle ??? It sure isnt the suppliments i was buying. Just saying.

 

[Thorn]

Well, to continue this vegan debate, I've just visited about a half dozen sites trying to skim through what they were saying about vegan diets and athletics. All conclude that a properly balanced vegan diet works, there is no conclusive evidence that a proper vegan diet either enhances performance or decreases it. There is some mention that most heavy body builders do better with a meat diet, but there is no scientific evidence to validate that conclusion, nor is there a valid reason why an omnivore would put on more muscle mass than a vegan.

Now, all this assumes you have that "properly planned" vegan diet. It takes research and effort to do it right. If Foster is NOT doing it right, then it could possibly harm his performance.

 

[GP]

Well, to continue this vegan debate, I've just visited about a half dozen sites trying to skim through what they were saying about vegan diets and athletics. All conclude that a properly balanced vegan diet works, there is no conclusive evidence that a proper vegan diet either enhances performance or decreases it. There is some mention that most heavy body builders do better with a meat diet, but there is no scientific evidence to validate that conclusion, nor is there a valid reason why an omnivore would put on more muscle mass than a vegan.

Now, all this assumes you have that "properly planned" vegan diet. It takes research and effort to do it right. If Foster is NOT doing it right, then it could possibly harm his performance.

Muscle strength, muscle stamina, etc., is the major focus I have for Foster.

As in my example of propane vs. gasoline, it's obvious that cleaner fuels have cleaner performance and less "gunk" than power-based fuels. I just cannot being to believe that your muscles react the same way to plant-based proteins as they would with meat-based.

Not arguing the science of plant-based vs. meat-based, just the actual "payoff" considering the needs of an NFL RB.