Grantland: Texans to finish with best record in NFL, Foster goes over 370

Discussion in 'Texans Talk' started by DaTruthExplodes, Nov 2, 2012.

  1. DaTruthExplodes

    DaTruthExplodes Anti-Homer

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    Second Half Predictions


    1. The Texans finish with the best record in football. If I have to pick a win total, I'll go with 13, but I expect the 6-1 Texans to finish with the league's best record by the time the regular season is over. Houston finishes the first half of the season with the best point differential in the league, even while giving up a game played to teams who haven't yet had a bye. Their schedule over the second half isn't particularly challenging, as they still have four games to come against their own division, plus matchups with the Bills and Lions (albeit with trips to Chicago and New England in store). Houston's good at everything and, outside of one bad performance against the Packers, has consistently looked as good as anyone else in football. One thing they might want to watch out for, though …

    2. Arian Foster will go over 370 carries. The "Curse of 370" is a controversial argument in football nerd circles. It theorizes that a running back who gets 370 carries or more in a given season is significantly more likely to break down with an injury or suffer a dramatic decline in performance during the subsequent season than one whose workload is better managed. Others accuse it of being arbitrarily defined and mathematically unsound. Does this sound like an exciting debate to you? It does to me, so I'll tell you what I think: There's nothing meaningful about the 370th carry that turns some muscle into jelly months down the road like the Dim Mak death punch, but there's also no reason to give a running back an excessive number of carries in 2012. That seems reasonable, right?

    Arian Foster, though, is on pace to break 370. If he maintains his current workload, he'll hit 384 carries, which will place him just above the threshold and make him a qualifier for the vaunted curse. With backup Ben Tate struggling with a nagging hamstring injury and third-stringer Justin Forsett new to the backfield, the Texans have been comfortable leaning on Foster, week after week, with an unprecedented workload. Perhaps owing to a combination of the workload and the offseason changes made to his offensive line, Foster's been far less efficient this year;1 after averaging 4.7 yards per carry over his first three seasons in the league, he's down to a rushing average of 3.9 yards this year.

    Regardless of whether you believe in the Curse of 370, it's clear that the Texans could find some space to give Foster a breather and get much-needed reps for another back. Take one obvious split as an example. When the Texans have been up 14 points or more in the fourth quarter this season, Foster's carried the ball 27 times. That's one-sixth of his workload, coming in situations in which the Texans have basically already sealed the game. He's not doing much with those carries beyond running into the line, either, as he's averaging a mere 3.1 yards per attempt on those carries. If the Texans merely hand those duties off to Forsett or a returning Tate, they'll save valuable wear and tear on a player who just entered the first year of his contract extension with the team. They might even avoid cursing him in the process. Given Tate's injury and Houston's indifference toward the situation, I think Foster hits 370.

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8582735/a-prognostications-rest-nfl-season
     
  2. TexanSam

    TexanSam Hall of Fame

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    I hope we go up by 21+ at halftime on Sunday and take Foster out of the game with only 10 or 12 carries.
     
  3. rmartin65

    rmartin65 I'm Score

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    That would be great. The 370 rule, while not batting 100%, has some validity. Just a quick google search pulls up a Football Outsiders article from 2007 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2007/370-carries-revisited) which studies the phenomenon, finding that 8 of the 14 backs that qualify for their study have significantly less success the following season.
     
  4. badboy

    badboy Site Contributor

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    Foster has had a couple weeks to rest so should handle a load vs Bills. Then Tate should be back to take some work, but IMO I'd like to see Forsett break loose & make a statement why he should at least be a #2 for some team. Hopefully, Kubes gives him a chance against Buffalo. He could get close to 100 yds.
     
  5. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    But he's not eating meat anymore, so the 370 rule is not an issue.

    I mean, dudes, he's eating clean now. He's got this.

    Oh wait, what? Being vegan isn't a deflector shield against EVERYTHING??? :kitten:
     
  6. Lucky

    Lucky Moderator

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    [​IMG]
     
  7. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

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    If I didn't love fried chicken so much, I could live off salads and fruit the rest of my life. Nothing wrong with veggies. :)
     
  8. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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  9. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    Thorn, you can't eat salads if you douse it with Ranch dressing. And you can't eat fruit if you're soaking it in three cups of white sugar in the fridge overnight!

    Yeah, it's all that damn fried chicken's fault. Or you'd be vegan too. ;)
     
  10. Thorn

    Thorn Dirty Old Man

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    Dear GP,

    You are full of $h!t, but I still like you anyway.

    Signed,

    Honey Mustard dressing an nekkid fruit.

    :lol:
     
  11. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    Says I'm full of $hit...likes me anyway...means Thorn is full of $hit too! Ha ha ha! Just kidding.

    :pirate:
     
  12. EllisUnit

    EllisUnit Serving Koolaid

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    All i know is MOST body builders eat meat, it make you strong :). It may just be me but i see a big difference in him this season compared to his first 2 seasons with us. He just dont look or run the same.

    Hell he used to be the king at breaking tackles and making people miss, the guy is going down so easily that if he was to walk through my lawn he would have to crawl cause he wouldnt be able to stay on his feet. Just saying.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    I guess we're all alone on this.

    I agree with you, he takes an arm tackle to the thigh and he's down at the LOS. It's not the same as previous years. The agility is still there, the burst and the acceleration isn't. And the strength to power through arm tackles isn't, either.
     
  14. Texas T

    Texas T Hall of Fame

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    I think it must be something else. Tony Gonzalez has been a Vegan since 2007 and it hasn't seemed to hurt him. He's even gotten better since then.

    He is not running/breaking tackles as well as last year, there I agree, but I really don't think it has anything to do with his being a vegan.
     
  15. EllisUnit

    EllisUnit Serving Koolaid

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    But a Te dont have to run the ball through a 7 man box and juke/break tackles nearly every play or have the burst to hit a hole that will only be open for 1 second. The positions are 2 different animals.
     
  16. Texanmike02

    Texanmike02 Site Contributor

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    Who cares. Anything less than a SB appearance is a failure so we should just start talking about our SB opponent.

    Mike
     
  17. EVOLVIST

    EVOLVIST Kid A

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    Jesus, I can't believe this has turned into another vegan thread.

    The point is, and I've been saying it for awhile, that with the lead there's no reason Foster should be carrying the rock in the 4th quarter. We have other proven back who can do it. Moreover, the fact that Foster has been nearly absent from designed passing plays to get him the ball in the open field is a little disconcerting.
     
  18. PandapuffTexan

    PandapuffTexan Veteran

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    vegans can get enough calories and protien... nuts have a crap load of calories fat and protien enough mixed with other natural foods can power a athlete..I blame change in offensive line
     
  19. GP

    GP Go Texans!

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    I had a pickup in the 1990s that had a spare tank in the bed, it was a propane tank.

    Switch near the steering wheel allowed me to toggle between regular gasoline and propane.

    When I would haul horses to rodeos, I'd run on the propane when the road was flat/level....but for climbing hills I'd have to toggle to gasoline.

    Why? Because gasoline has more carbons than propane. Both are technically FUELS but one fuel gives you more horsepower, acceleration, staying power.

    Guess what else? Propane, because it has less carbons than gasoline, burns cleaner in your cylinders than gasoline...meaning it's better for the longevity of your cylinders.

    There's two separate parallels concerning fuel types in vehicles and humans. Both examples fit the whole animal protein vs. plant protein situation.

    Now tell me again how all FUELS are created equal. Cuz I don't buy that the two protein types are equal.

    All you Science First guys are so high on new discoveries that you're ignoring the evidence (Foster now vs. two previous years) that's right there on the field. If he can't launch into a great performance against the Bills' porous run defense, I'll be further convinced its a problem. He looks different.
     
  20. EllisUnit

    EllisUnit Serving Koolaid

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    yes there are supliments you can take, but i am by no means a pro body builder but i def work out a lot and i can tell you that it is virtually impossible to get all the protein and other nutrients a body needs from over the counter stuff. The best source of protein comes from meat. Sure i doubt his body is lacking anything but i can tell you that its not getting as much as it was before. Muscles break down when you work out and protein is what actually rebuilds muscle.

    Which IMO explains his lack of breaking tackles and going down so easily. This is just my opinion but i see a difference and if u add it all up it looks like perfect math to me.
     

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