Wolf
100% Texan
When we talk about "risk" in the draft, what do we mean? If a team takes a flyer on a guy in the middle-to-late rounds - a spread-offense quarterback with little chance to make the pro transition, a receiver with demon speed and little else, a tackle on either side of the ball with great athleticism and iffy fundamentals, or a player at any position who's already been coached to his ceiling - well, the risk is negligible. Teams are playing dice with the universe after the first couple of rounds, and they know it. It's the picks early on that can come back and haunt a franchise for years if they're made without the proper scouting and background work. Here are 10 players with first- and second-round grades who also possess major risk factors that could make them either bargains or busts.
QB Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame: Of course, the big positive with Clausen is that he's pro-ready; his work with Charlie Weis presented him with the ability to get a head start on the intricacies of the pro game. He won't have to adjust too heavily when it comes to the verbiage of NFL play calls, and he's far more comfortable under center than any other highly-regarded quarterback in this class. However, the increase in the number of spread offenses over the last five years sometimes has NFL personnel men overrating the effects of pro-readiness, and not looking closely enough at the pure physical tools that certain coaching tactics may inflate beyond actual potential. Clausen still has many questions to answer at the next level, especially if a team overdrafts him hoping for a quick solution.
QB Tim Tebow, Florida: It's not the mechanics we're talking about here - it's common knowledge that Tebow will require at least a year of development before he's ready to remotely resemble an NFL quarterback. But that's the problem. If Tebow doesn't go to an NFL team with an established starting quarterback, every mistake made by the QBs in front of him will be amplified by a super-fawning media beyond anxious for him to get on the field so more quick stories can be written. Through no fault of his own, Tebow has the potential to rip a team apart.
RB Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/sh...e-10-riskiest-2010-draft-picks?urn=nfl,234844