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Schaub and the Passing game thru week 15

dalemurphy

dalemurphy

Hall of Fame
Passing yards
1. Peyton
2. Schaub


Completion Percentage
1. Brees
3. Manning
3. Schaub

Yards Per attempt
1. Rivers
2. Brees
3. Roethlisburger
4. Schaub
5. Manning

QB Rating
1. Brees
2. Rivers
3. Favre
4. Rodgers
5. Roethlisburger
6. Manning
7. Schaub

1st Down %
1. Rivers
2. Brees
3. Manning
4. Roethlisburger
5. Favre
6. Schaub


So, I simply chose relevant statistics. I didn't cherry-pick for Schaub's strengths. Interesting to note that not only is Schaub in the top 7 of every one of these categories but also notice the company around him. Based on empirical evidence, I think it's pretty clear that we now have a near elite level QB. Two other points I'd like to make:

1. Of the QBs that have played almost every game this year, Schaub has been sacked about the 8th less.

2. Other than A.Rodgers, every QB that appears on those rankings above have significantly more career starts. I'd say that he has developed rapidly and we should be absolutely thrilled with our QB situation heading into next season and those that follow!
 
Schaub's passing stats little reason for celebration
NFL leaders in pass attempts 1999-2008
Year Quarterback Pass Attempts Team Record Playoffs Yes/No
1999 Brett Favre (GB) 595 8-8 No
2000 Vinny Testaverde (NYJ) 590 9-7 No
2001 Jon Kitna (Cin) 581 6-10 No
2002 Rich Gannon (Oak) 618 11-5 Yes
2003 Brad Johnson (TB) 570 7-9 No
2004 Trent Green (KC) 556 7-9 No
2005 Favre 607 4-12 No
2006 Favre 613 8-8 No
2007 Brees (NO) 652 7-9 No
2008 Brees 635 8-8 No

A few inferences can be made based on these data:

* 600 pass attempts in a season is more common that it used to be
* Over the past ten seasons, league leaders in pass attempts (with the exception of Gannon in 2002) played on 'average at best' teams
* Over the past ten seasons, league leaders in pass attempts typically quarterback teams that don't make the playoffs (again with the exception of Gannon in '02.)

So in other words, just because you're throwing it all over the place doesn't mean your team will be successful. In fact, looking at the past ten seasons data highly suggests that you won't be successful.

In 2009, Peyton Manning could become the first quarterback since Gannon to lead the league in pass attempts and make the playoffs. Manning currently has 532 attempts. Schaub and Tom Brady are tied for second with 513.
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Vinny said:
Schaub's passing stats little reason for celebration
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Well that is cute by AJ and all fixating on passing attempts and certainly there is something to teams generally having to pass because they get behind, but the breadth of stats indicate otherwise in this case. It isn't just attempts. As dale put up it is ypa, 1st down % and one he left out completions over 20 yards where Schaub is tied for 3rd in the league. Another inconvenient truth for AJ's article is that of the top 10 QB's in passing attempts this season only Schaub comes from a team without a winning record. Of that top 10 at least 6 are already in the playoffs and none have been eliminated yet.
 
Lol. I have a feeling if Schaub won a Super Bowl and took the MVP of the game there'd still be fans claiming we still don't have a quarterback.
 
infantrycak said:
Well that is cute by AJ and all fixating on passing attempts and certainly there is something to teams generally having to pass because they get behind, but the breadth of stats indicate otherwise in this case. It isn't just attempts. As dale put up it is ypa, 1st down % and one he left out completions over 20 yards where Schaub is tied for 3rd in the league. Another inconvenient truth for AJ's article is that of the top 10 QB's in passing attempts this season only Schaub comes from a team without a winning record. Of that top 10 at least 6 are already in the playoffs and none have been eliminated yet.
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Brees had a phenomenal 2008 statistical season for an 8-8 team. I don't think the stats were misleading. The team grew and played better this season and they are 14-1. I'm not sure anyone can make a rational argument that Schaub hasn't been one of the 5-7 best QBs in the league this season. He's been excellent. And, the areas of concern I had for him going into the season: health, pocket presence... have both been improved upon. If we get the run game fixed this off-season, I don't think anything other than injury problems can deter this team from a serious playoff run.
 
dalemurphy said:
I'm not sure anyone can make a rational argument that Schaub hasn't been one of the 5-7 best QBs in the league this season. He's been excellent.
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Excellent might be strong, but Schaub has been very good. Good enough to win with. And that's what has been so frustrating.

If the Texans only had a _____, is a recurring theme. One year it's health, the next a defense, the next a rushing game. Winning teams accentuate their positives and minimize their negatives. When the Texans can do that, then they will have a serious layoff run.
 
Lucky said:
Excellent might be strong, but Schaub has been very good. Good enough to win with. And that's what has been so frustrating.

If the Texans only had a _____, is a recurring theme. One year it's health, the next a defense, the next a rushing game.
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I don't know where the divide is between really damn good and excellent is but "if the Texans only had a QB" shouldn't be on anyone's lips or fingers right now.

Winning teams accentuate their positives and minimize their negatives. When the Texans can do that, then they will have a serious layoff run.
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Appears to me even .500 teams accentuate their positives and they have been Schaub and AJ (and formerly OD) and the LBs. Even the hint of a running game this year and two thirds of the threads in this forum wouldn't exist since they would be sitting in a wild card spot.
 
infantrycak said:
Appears to me even .500 teams accentuate their positives and they have been Schaub and AJ (and formerly OD) and the LBs. Even the hint of a running game this year and two thirds of the threads in this forum wouldn't exist since they would be sitting in a wild card spot.
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Exactly. 110% correct.
 
Those who think that article was somehow a knock on Schaub need to go back and read it again and this time try to get past the headline. If you don't care to read the article, the main point is that the imbalance between two phases of the offense being cause for alarm more than cause for celebration. Like I said in the article, without Schaub and AJ performing at a Pro Bowl level this year, the Texans wouldn't have sniffed 8-8.
 
so yeah after looking at this list why do Us and pittsburg have problem winning games this year ?????

how does the colts and saints get by without a amazing running game ????

but we cant ???
 
dalemurphy said:
Vinny, I'm not sure your point. Of course things like total passing yards aren't the best statistics. That's why stats like YPA have merit. Most of the statistical categories I listed have very little to do with the volume of passes: YPA, QB rating, 1st down %, Completion %... all of those measure effectiveness and not simply piling on stats.
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just sharing a recent article that relates to Shaub, the passing game and how it may or may not correlate to winning since its being talked about here. I'm always dropping stuff like this in threads instead of starting new ones. I'm not a big stat guy when it comes to football, so I really didn't have much to say about it either way hence no commentary by moi....just sharing stuff I run across.
 
i guess what iam trying to say if u compare Pittsburg and Texans this year do we have similar problems ?????
 
Thorn said:
Exactly. 110% correct.
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Maybe even 120%. The running game being complete crap has really turned this season upside down. The defense stinking out of the gate was bad but it would have translated into a slightly slow start to this season if we'd been able to run the ball. As flat as we came out in week 1 I don't know if a running game would have changed much but following that game I think it's fair to hypothesize that the first Jacksonville game might have had a different outcome if we'd been able to reliably run the ball. The Arizona game might also have gone differently with a functioning ground attack.

Those two infinitely winnable games going in the other direction take us to Indianapolis in week 9 with a 7-1 record.

I don't think there's been a game on our schedule that we couldn't have won if we'd just been able to run the ball. Once the defense came on this season should have been damn near one win after another.
 
Norg said:
so yeah after looking at this list why do Us and pittsburg have problem winning games this year ?????

how does the colts and saints get by without a amazing running game ????

but we cant ???
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Schaub and AJ are good, but they ain't Peyton Manning. And the Saints are not as good as their record.
 
aj. said:
Those who think that article was somehow a knock on Schaub need to go back and read it again and this time try to get past the headline. If you don't care to read the article, the main point is that the imbalance between two phases of the offense being cause for alarm more than cause for celebration. Like I said in the article, without Schaub and AJ performing at a Pro Bowl level this year, the Texans wouldn't have sniffed 8-8.
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You're right aj, I just skimmed what was quoted which made it look like a predictor. Sorry.
 
Norg said:
so yeah after looking at this list why do Us and pittsburg have problem winning games this year ?????

how does the colts and saints get by without a amazing running game ????

but we cant ???
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The Saints had a very good rushing attack until the past 5 or 6 games. Not surprisingly, that's when they began struggling to win.
 
gg no re said:
Probably since they don't come out flat to start a game / half
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Not true, both of those teams have started flat and had to overcome it, especially the Colts. They've squeacked by in several games this year. Those teams have evolved from years past and learned how to win those games and that's exactly what the Texans will do.
 
Norg said:
so yeah after looking at this list why do Us and pittsburg have problem winning games this year ?????

how does the colts and saints get by without a amazing running game ????

but we cant ???
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Saints and Colts have embraced that they are throwing offenses which will run no more than needed and are intentionally designed that way. The Texans are really designed as a more balanced offense which is throwing out of need because of the soriness of the run game. If the Texans embrace being a throw first team and try to get more dynamic at WRs besides Andre Johnson then we go from very good to an elite passing game that consistently wins football games.
 
Kubiak and little shanny need to play madden more often. No run game what so ever but deek and dunk your way down field. Slant pass is your friend. Especially in red zone.
 
Yeah when we played the colts the dinked and dunked to Clark like 20 times how could we have gotten burned like 20 times !!!!!!!!!!
 
I'm not 100% certain that he's the real deal but I'm almost there. I see some strange decisions at times and really bad throws at receivers feet too often. The stats are awesome but I'm looking for something beyond that. This year has been very good stuff and he's looking like he's going to play 16 games so I'm satisfied with his performance for the most part. I just wish he hadn't tossed that pick-6 in Arizona and hope he continues to grow next year.

I'm not panning him at all. I just see a clear difference between Schaub and Manning/Brady at this point. Not a huge difference but it's there. I hope he closes the gap.
 
Frak The Jags said:
Because they are either:

1) Ignorant.
2) UT fans first, Texans fans second.
2a) VY Fan Boys.

Just my opinion. :fingergun:
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I agree with this but there's also a sect that want to draft a 1st round QB because Ryan and Flacco had instant success as rookies and people assume the rookie curve no longer exists and they can automatically come in and win right away. The Jets fell into this trap and now they're in deep with a QB who looks like David Carr.
 
Hervoyel said:
I'm not 100% certain that he's the real deal but I'm almost there. I see some strange decisions at times and really bad throws at receivers feet too often. The stats are awesome but I'm looking for something beyond that. This year has been very good stuff and he's looking like he's going to play 16 games so I'm satisfied with his performance for the most part. I just wish he hadn't tossed that pick-6 in Arizona and hope he continues to grow next year.

I'm not panning him at all. I just see a clear difference between Schaub and Manning/Brady at this point. Not a huge difference but it's there. I hope he closes the gap.
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This is where I am too. But I'm starting to believe that the most of the things I don't like about his game will be polished/cured as he gets more experience, as he becomes more battle-tested.

The lack of mobility scares me. I cringe when he tries to run - remember that preseason game where he turned an ankle running out of bounds? ...in his own stadium! Now I don't expect him to morph into a Randall Cunningham, I just wish he would polish up that "slide step" to make himself more of a moving target.
 
Hervoyel said:
I'm not 100% certain that he's the real deal but I'm almost there. I see some strange decisions at times and really bad throws at receivers feet too often. The stats are awesome but I'm looking for something beyond that. This year has been very good stuff and he's looking like he's going to play 16 games so I'm satisfied with his performance for the most part. I just wish he hadn't tossed that pick-6 in Arizona and hope he continues to grow next year.

I'm not panning him at all. I just see a clear difference between Schaub and Manning/Brady at this point. Not a huge difference but it's there. I hope he closes the gap.
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I think the only difference between Schaub and Manning/Brady is experience. He's come a long way since he got here.
 
m5kwatts said:
I agree with this but there's also a sect that want to draft a 1st round QB because Ryan and Flacco had instant success as rookies and people assume the rookie curve no longer exists and they can automatically come in and win right away. The Jets fell into this trap and now they're in deep with a QB who looks like David Carr.
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Drafting a first round QB is nothing but a big crap-shoot and if you guess wrong, can set a franchise back 5-8 years.
 
Hervoyel said:
I just wish he hadn't tossed that pick-6 in Arizona...
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I just wish the play hadn't been called. A deep out to a possession receiver covered by perhaps the fastest CB in the league? That was a recipe for disaster.
 
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