Your interest in Texans' 2014 draft

[badboy]

I'm normally pretty interested in the draft, but I'm having trouble getting into it this year.

Part of this is that my life is much busier, so I don't have time to read about players as much as I used to.

Part of it is the draft timing - Coming a week into May just feels really really late, and the offseason seems to be taking forever. Why are they waiting so long? It's killed my enthusiasm more than it's helped it.

Part of it is that I am feeling more and more depressed about the Texans. I wrote a post about this somewhere a while back so I won't rehash the whole thing here, but it seems the team must be planning a big rebuilding effort, and yet the lack of any signifiant free agency moves, or much else that shows the team has a plan in place to really improve, worries me. I feel we're losing ground this offseason instead of gaining.

Part of it is that I'm more depressed than excited about the opportunities for the #1 pick. Normally there's some excitement to see who will be available at our pick, whether we might move up or down, etc. This year, we are likely stuck at #1 (or will get a less-than-great deal), and none of the likely picks excite me as a #1 overall pick. As I said, I haven't had time to look at others players much at all, so I have little sense of what things look like for our later round options.

Probably my interest will pick up again over the next 4 weeks, but for the moment, it's way lower than usual.

Free agency: new QB that could start, S Clemmons who should start over Swearinger, back up if not starter NT Powe, backup RB Andre Brown, possible safety back up Kendrick Lewis could beat out Keo...fairly significant to me and we still have June 1st cuts to review.

 

[Playoffs]

My interest in the draft is at its highest, as you may see from my many posts. Apologies if I'm "running the forum"... just trying to get as much good information as possible out there to better inform the members. TexansTalk has a number of very good scouting contributors who provide in depth looks at these prospects from the top to the bottom of the draft. I see a lot of our content being posted all around the 'net, so I guess it's relevant and TT is gaining popularity.

I could not be more excited about our HC hire, Bill O'Brien, and his bringing in guys like Mike Vrabel to teach & guide our team. I can see OB growing into more of a Belichick role (minus the cheating) in the future.

This is the most important draft in team history, imo. I'm of the opinion great organizations go with BPA within reason, and with as many holes as we have we might as well start doing what the best do to be the best...

But with a QB "whisperer" head coach, #1 is up in the air until 7:00PM CDT, May 8th.

 

[WolverineFan]

I feel exactly the opposite. He's a guy I can't imagine doing anything other than busting. When I watch him play, I see a guy who's great on Saturday but who'll never be anything other than a curiosity on Sunday.

This. I can't really think of a guy in recent history who scares me more as a prospect than Manziel. Tons of upside, but just so much potential to wash right out.

 

[Exascor]

I feel exactly the opposite. He's a guy I can't imagine doing anything other than busting. When I watch him play, I see a guy who's great on Saturday but who'll never be anything other than a curiosity on Sunday.

This. I can't really think of a guy in recent history who scares me more as a prospect than Manziel. Tons of upside, but just so much potential to wash right out.

What scares me more than taking a risk on Manziel is getting a QB like Andy Dalton that is just good enough you can't dump him. I'd rather draft Manziel and have him not on the team 2-3 years from now than draft a QB that hangs around for 6-8 years and has the team in perpetual mediocrity.

 

[steelbtexan]

I love the draft. It's like Christmas.

I love doing some research to get a feel for where guys are going to go and I love trying to figure out what steps we're going to take to improve our team.

With the regime change, there are a lot more questions this year than there are normally. With Kubiak, I knew what sorts of players he was looking for on offense although I never could tell what sort of defensive players they were going to be looking for. And for all the research I'd put into things, they always found a way to draft guys I didn't expect.

With the OB/RAC offense/defense, I have no idea what's going to happen. In a way, that's very scary and in another way, that's very exciting.

With 11 picks, I'm hoping we upgrade our roster. And I'm hoping that the other teams in our division make mistakes.

Maybe

Rick/Gary/Wade should've looked at your research. You can do much worse than 2-14.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

What scares me more than taking a risk on Manziel is getting a QB like Andy Dalton that is just good enough you can't dump him. I'd rather draft Manziel and have him not on the team 2-3 years from now than draft a QB that hangs around for 6-8 years and has the team in perpetual mediocrity.

See... I don't like EITHER of those options. That's why I think you do NOT force the pick of a QB just because you need a QB. You don't want to get stuck with a Sam Bradford or an Andy Dalton... not to mention a complete wash-out.

If you see a QB you think is going to be great, go get him. If you don't, then don't force it.

 

[steelbtexan]

How big a part did all the lawsuits and outcry from concussions have to do with this?

God'ell should've advised the greedy owners to pay off the former players and leave the game alone. Then made current/future players to sign waivers regarding head injuries.

That would've been the smart thing to do, but God'ell decided to lead the owners down this current path of greed. If John Mara's dad had the same greedy values the NFL probably wouldn't exist today.

 

[JB]

God'ell should've advised the greedy owners to pay off the former players and leave the game alone. Then made current/future players to sign waivers regarding head injuries.

That would've been the smart thing to do, but God'ell decided to lead the owners down this current path of greed. If John Mara's dad had the same greedy values the NFL probably wouldn't exist today.

I just can't buy into the idea that Goodell is leading a group of billionaire owners any where. Dude is an employee and mouthpiece. Yeah he has some sway in some things but c'mon man, he's just a single focal point cuz it's easy that way.

 

[DocBar]

and probably every single Texans' player will be better than what JM had at A&M. I try not to focus too much when comparing a college player to a pro. rather I observe skill set and decide if it translates. People comparing Manziel to Tebow make me chuckle.

I'm looking purely at skillset. I'm not a JM hater ( I rather enjoyed watching him at aTm )
but his skillset was much more effective against the lesser talent levels in the NCAA than he'll face at the NFL level. Not to mention the talent and skills of the DC's he'll be facing. He's not going to fool NFL DC's for very long and with the recent influx of QB's with very similar skillsets, they have a head start on game planning for him.

If we could get him mid 1st round or later, I wouldn't be complaining, but at 1.1, I wouldn't like it. And I would immediately start rooting for him to prove me wrong. And it would guarantee the Texans a permanent spot in the ESPN shuffle.

I guess you could put me in the trade down camp and take BPA, or draft Clowney at 1.1 and the BQBA at 2.1, unless there's an absolute no-brainer there.

I could actually live with the three QB's on the roster right now, for a season and have the Texans take a flier on Murray, Mettenberger, Savage (kind of intriguing being from Pitt and all ) or McCarron 0n day 2 or 3.

 

[DocBar]

I just can't buy into the idea that Goodell is leading a group of billionaire owners any where. Dude is an employee and mouthpiece. Yeah he has some sway in some things but c'mon man, he's just a single focal point cuz it's easy that way.

Agreed. He's just the face of the 32 owners and what they, collectively, want.

 

[steelbtexan]

I just can't buy into the idea that Goodell is leading a group of billionaire owners any where. Dude is an employee and mouthpiece. Yeah he has some sway in some things but c'mon man, he's just a single focal point cuz it's easy that way.

Agreed

Kinda like Smith having very little responsibility for 2-14.

We just don't know.

I believe Mara/Kraft lead God'ell around by the nose.

 

[thunderkyss]

What scares me more than taking a risk on Manziel is getting a QB like Andy Dalton that is just good enough you can't dump him. I'd rather draft Manziel and have him not on the team 2-3 years from now than draft a QB that hangs around for 6-8 years and has the team in perpetual mediocrity.

Are we talking about guys like Bradford, Stafford, & Ryan?

 

[thunderkyss]

I'm looking purely at skillset. I'm not a JM hater ( I rather enjoyed watching him at aTm )
but his skillset was much more effective against the lesser talent levels in the NCAA than he'll face at the NFL level. Not to mention the talent and skills of the DC's he'll be facing. He's not going to fool NFL DC's for very long and with the recent influx of QB's with very similar skillsets, they have a head start on game planning for him.

How long did it take them to figure out John Elway, Joe Montana, & Steve Young?

Or did they play against tougher competition in college.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

How long did it take them to figure out John Elway, Joe Montana, & Steve Young?

Or did they play against tougher competition in college.

All three of those guys had to figure out how to play in the pros and I don't see anything in Montana or Elway that's similar to Manziel's situation.

At 6'3" and about 220#, Elway was a big QB for his time. Although he was a bit of a scrambler, he was more of a Luck type of scrambler instead of a pure runner. He was smart and he played within the offense.

Joe Montana was a pocket passer in a pocket passing system and it took him a few years to learn how to do it. He was a later round draft pick and wasn't the anointed starter until his 3rd season. He's a perfect system guy. He's almost the polar opposite of Manziel.

Now. Steve Young. He's the type of guy Manziel is and he played the type of game that Manziel plays. And he was horrible his first several years in the pros. He had to learn how to stop doing what he was doing and he had to learn to start doing it within the context of the offense. That's what Manziel has to learn and I don't think he's going to be given time enough to do that at his first team. I expect him to bounce around a bit and IF he figured out how to play in the NFL, it will probably be later in his career.

 

[DocBar]

How long did it take them to figure out John Elway, Joe Montana, & Steve Young?

Or did they play against tougher competition in college.

Different eras. And it's a well known known fact that the Niners did a phenom job as far as Montanta and You are concerned. Elway was a prima donna from day one but was stronger than every top 2014 draft pick combined, so yeah....Apples and oranges.

 

[badboy]

Manziel can do it all..he's just not as tall. If you are concerned he might not hold up IF he continues to scramble then fair point; but to say he cannot do what other QBs do/did is not accurate.

 

[keyser]

Free agency: new QB that could start, S Clemmons who should start over Swearinger, back up if not starter NT Powe, backup RB Andre Brown, possible safety back up Kendrick Lewis could beat out Keo...fairly significant to me and we still have June 1st cuts to review.

Well, this seems like a really optimistic view to me, but I could use some optimism. My take, though: I think if Fitzpatrick is our starter, we are in trouble. Clemmons might be an upgrade, but doesn't feel like any sort of game changer. The others seem like backups who we hope maybe can contribute. Seems like we've lost some decent high-profile players, also: Antonio Smith, Owen Daniels, Ben Tate, and to me Daneal Manning - other than Manning, it's not clear we've made up at all for those losses. I am not expecting or really even wanting a big FA "splash" hire - probably not what we need. But, it doesn't even feel like we've brought in talent that matches what we've lost, much less made any real progress during FA - leading to me not being too excited about the future, draft included. Of course, maybe O'Brien has a better eye and these backups we've picked up from other squads will blossom on the Texans - I certainly hope that's the case.

 

[Scooter]

i've got very hardline opinions on what we should do. once it comes to draft day, or at least a few days after, i think i wont really care about who gets chosen and where ... i'll be too excited about what the picks could do for our 2014 season.

 

[thunderkyss]

All three of those guys had to figure out how to play in the pros and I don't see anything in Montana or Elway that's similar to Manziel's situation.

At 6'3" and about 220#, Elway was a big QB for his time.

Different eras. And it's a well known known fact that the Niners did a phenom job as far as Montanta and You are concerned. Elway was a prima donna from day one but was stronger than every top 2014 draft pick combined, so yeah....Apples and oranges.

I agree it's a different era, but the more things change... As long as the team is winning, JFF has time to figure it out. Same as Newton, same as Kaepernick, same as Luck. If a team spends a first round pick on him, they'll suffer a 4-12 season, maybe more.

& yeah, Elway's was bigger than JFF, but I wasn't talking about his longevity. The magic he made with his feet, being able to improvise & save a broken play... that was a big part of his game. Same with Montana, same with Young, same with Farve, same with Romo, etc... etc...

If you're thinking tucking the ball & running forward is Johnny's "style" then yeah, that's not going to work. He won't last long at all doing that (ala RG3), but that's not what I think about when I think Johnny Football.

 

[IDEXAN]

Former Texans' GM Charley Casserly was on one of the Houston sports talk shows yesterday, and in reviewing what happened when he was the GM in Houston, Casserly said they didn't receive a single offer to trade the #1 pick in 2002 or 2006. So even though we've got a different CBA now than in the past with respect to the cap, I suspect it's still a very long-shot to pull off a deal.

 

[thunderkyss]

Former Texans' GM Charley Casserly was on one of the Houston sports talk shows yesterday, and in reviewing what happened when he was the GM in Houston, Casserly said they didn't receive a single offer to trade the #1 pick in 2002 or 2006. So even though we've got a different CBA now than in the past with respect to the cap, I suspect it's still a very long-shot to pull off a deal.

Or, after some time has passed, say a week before the draft, if I'm Rick Smith, I get a little more pro-active & start making calls myself.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

I agree it's a different era, but the more things change... As long as the team is winning, JFF has time to figure it out. Same as Newton, same as Kaepernick, same as Luck. If a team spends a first round pick on him, they'll suffer a 4-12 season, maybe more.

& yeah, Elway's was bigger than JFF, but I wasn't talking about his longevity. The magic he made with his feet, being able to improvise & save a broken play... that was a big part of his game. Same with Montana, same with Young, same with Farve, same with Romo, etc... etc...

If you're thinking tucking the ball & running forward is Johnny's "style" then yeah, that's not going to work. He won't last long at all doing that (ala RG3), but that's not what I think about when I think Johnny Football.

Well. OK. We have entirely different views on what JFFs style is, then. Because as far as I'm concerned, he's less of a passer than RGIII and instead of improvising to save a broken play, JFF breaks the play to begin with so he can improvise.

 

[michaelm]

DI am only concerned about his running & I think Gruden really got his attention in his critique.

JFF's entire playing style is both a huge injury risk factor, and the one single thing that makes him potentially unique, and you think a few words from Gruden will have significant impact?

 

[DocBar]

Or, after some time has passed, say a week before the draft, if I'm Rick Smith, I get a little more pro-active & start making calls myself.

Won't you lose most of your leverage doing that?

Well. OK. We have entirely different views on what JFFs style is, then. Because as far as I'm concerned, he's less of a passer than RGIII and instead of improvising to save a broken play, JFF breaks the play to begin with so he can improvise.

Exactly!!JFF reminds me of Mike Vick in that regard. JFF isn't even a cousin to a pocket passer. If he can't get out of the pocket and run around, his play drops off considerably.
MSR

 

[infantrycak]

Well. OK. We have entirely different views on what JFFs style is, then. Because as far as I'm concerned, he's less of a passer than RGIII and instead of improvising to save a broken play, JFF breaks the play to begin with so he can improvise.

Bingo.

JFF's entire playing style is both a huge injury risk factor, and the one single thing that makes him potentially unique, and you think a few words from Gruden will have significant impact?

Coachability is the $64k question for Manziel.

Exactly!!JFF reminds me of Mike Vick in that regard. JFF isn't even a cousin to a pocket passer. If he can't get out of the pocket and run around, his play drops off considerably.

When Manziel stays in the pocket he does well. BUT as you and TPN say there is a giant IF involved in whether he will do that.

 

[DocBar]

When Manziel stays in the pocket he does well. BUT as you and TPN say there is a giant IF involved in whether he will do that.

Weren't some his worst games were when teams kept him contained and he had to try to string together completions from the pocket?

 

[infantrycak]

Weren't some his worst games were when teams kept him contained and he had to try to string together completions from the pocket?

His numbers inside the pocket are excellent but I would say sometimes his movement within the pocket isn't smart but he gets away with it - moves/weaves 5 steps when 2 would have done. It's another translation issue but it isn't as dire as he only throws well outside the pocket. I guess I am taking a stance in between he's an out of the pocket guy and he's an accomplished pocket passer based on his numbers. This is one where I will agree with TK on a comparison to Romo. Romo buys time a bunch of plays with dumb excessive running around but he gets away with it - until he doesn't and then has an epic fail play. Now will he still be dumb about it 10 years into his career like Romo or will he improve on it and get smart like Young?

 

[badboy]

JFF's entire playing style is both a huge injury risk factor, and the one single thing that makes him potentially unique, and you think a few words from Gruden will have significant impact?

You do not think Manziel changed and improved his play in 2013? His "risk" plays were less self initiated and from a break down. He should continue to improve.

 

[ObsiWan]

Or, after some time has passed, say a week before the draft, if I'm Rick Smith, I get a little more pro-active & start making calls myself.

If WE have to make those calls, we're automatically negotiating from a weak position.
We'll go from having something that's really worth selling to trying to dump something we aren't sure we want.

 

[thunderkyss]

Won't you lose most of your leverage doing that?

If WE have to make those calls, we're automatically negotiating from a weak position.
We'll go from having something that's really worth selling to trying to dump something we aren't sure we want.

Yes. We lose some leverage.

However, unless you believe that trades are initiated solely on the first day of the draft, that's the only play we have.

I don't think all trades start on trade day, at least not for the top 10 picks, I think we should have already gotten calls, say three weeks out, two weeks out, definitely a week out.

Just because I'm calling the teams I would be interested in doesn't mean I'm going to accept a deal I'm not comfortable with. I'm perfectly willing to take a player at the 1-1 spot.

So I'll call Cleveland, Atlanta, whoever, & tell them I'm looking to trade, what are they offering.. I'm still looking for the highest bidder.

 

[steelbtexan]

I would be more excited if Smith weren't in charge of the draft.

Is he in charge of the draft?

If the draft is a poor one are we going to blame anything and everything for the franchises continued failures except Smith?

 

[ObsiWan]

I would be more excited if Smith weren't in charge of the draft.

Is he in charge of the draft?

If the draft is a poor one are we going to blame anything and everything for the franchises continued failures except Smith?

Bottom line:
McNair is charge of the draft since he hired everyone that's going to be in that room.

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^

...happy?

 

[JB]

the longer it takes, and the more the talk here the less interested I get

 

[Texian]

I would be more excited if Smith weren't in charge of the draft.

Is he in charge of the draft?

If the draft is a poor one are we going to blame anything and everything for the franchises continued failures except Smith?

FWIW - In the McClain interview with O'Leary and O'Brien the key advice that O'Brien received from multiple key sources was, make sure you're in charge.

My reading and interpretation is O'Brien has final say on the 53 man roster which includes the draft.

 

[steelbtexan]

the longer it takes, and the more the talk here the less interested I get

How interested were you during the midst of 2-14?

Everything is/has been hunky dory in the Texans org.