Nighthawk said:
Taking this head on:
IF there are teams willing to trade for Carr, and
IF you believe we're going into a rebuilding period, and
IF you know that will take 3 yrs minimum to be in contention,
THEN the only smart move is trade Carr now, because:
(a) he's not going to do you any good in the next 3 years even if he suddenly becomes much better, and
(b) after three more seasons he'll be on the downside of his career, and
(c) we could use the extra picks now, and
(d) VY in 3 years will be just coming into his own, with at least 5 years in front of him
1) I do believe there are teams willing to trade for Carr, however I don't see us getting anything better than a 2nd round pick for him and a $5.5-8 million cap hit for a 2nd round pick is not a very good idea.
2) I do not think we are going into a complete rebuilding period, nor do I think we need to, we have a decent core of young talent on offense (Carr, Davis, Johnson, Mathis), one good, young CB, a couple decent defensive players, and some other serviceable role players, so there is no reason to give up on them and their careers and rebuild the team from scratch.
3) I don't think it will take 3 years to be in playoff contention. As with the previous post, I think we have a core of good, young players and enough serviceable players in other positions that with our new coaches and intelligent offseason moves in free agency and the draft that we can be in serious playoff contention in 2007, if not 2006. I have documented several teams that have made great single-season turnarounds (most recently San Diego going from 4-12 and 1st pick in the draft to 12-4 and a playoff berth the next season a couple years ago), so there is no reason to think that we are 3 years away from playoff contention.
a) This is a moot point since I do not think we will be unable to contend for the playoffs for three years, and his sudden development will help a lot with this team's progression.
b) Three seasons from now he'll be on the downside of his career? That will only be his 7th season, and last I checked many QBs put up some of their best seasons later in their career, maybe they don't have the best statistics of their career but their teams are generally more successful. Peyton Manning was in his 8th season this year, is he already on the downside of his career and a lost cause? Vinny Testaverde put up 3532 yards and 17 TDs at 41 years old and in his 18th season, and also put up 4177 yards and 33 TDs for the Ravens in his 10th season, 3256 yards and 29 TDs for the Jets in his 12th season, 3743 yards and 21 TDs for the Jets in his 14th season. In 2001, Kurt Warner was only in his fourth year but he was 30 years old (avg. age for an 8 year veteran) and put up 4830 yards and 36TDs. After Favre's 7th season, he put up 4212, 4091, 3812, 3921, 3658, 3361, 4088, and 3881 yards and 31, 22, 20, 32, 28, 32, 30, and 20 TDs. Barring a catastrophic injury, I don't think Carr will be on the decline in three seasons.
c) If we are truly 3 years from contention as you say, then how much good are extra picks now going to do? We should be looking to get these extra draft picks now because if we fill enough holes on the team we can be serious playoff contenders in one, maybe two years. We could get far more picks (and better picks for that matter) by trading down out of the 1st pick than by trading David Carr.
d) In three years Vince Young will just be starting to become a good NFL QB, while David Carr will be in the prime of his career, plus if we start giving up on the current team you can be sure that Andre Johnson, Dunta Robinson, and other players like that will not stick around thru three more bad years and will continue their careers elsewhere once their current contracts are up.
today. casserly getting fired reeves should get his job
