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Why do some great college QBs fail in the NFL?

L

LikeMike

Veteran
Leinart, Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Vince Young, Derek Carr, Doug Flutie, Bradford... lots of great college QBs fail in the NFL.

Now, we are probably pretty close to drafting our own young hopeful great college QB - so I`d like to see, why those QBs failed and if those same reasons might lead to Bridgewater, Manziel, Bortles or whoever may be at the top of our board failing.

So what do you think, why did these QB not get it done in the NFL (Bradford might still turn it around - maybe Locker as well)? And how does Bridgewarer and the others fare in those categories?
 
JMO, Head coaches and OC's try and force a QB to fit their system instead of designing a system to fit their QB. If the college QB hasn't been accustomed to taking snaps from under center, then why try and force him to do so. Instead get creative and design an offense to fit those skills...

Comes down to pure ego on the HC and OC....
 
Some the QBs listed were not even "great" college QBs. Which leads to the main reason they are not successful...

the player simply is not good enough.

Does it matter about coaching, teammates, injury, systems, etc? Yes, but pure talent/work ethic combo is your answer. It is that simple.
 
There are so many what ifs and factors as to why certain players fail, it would take a lifetime to list them all. For example, what if Peyton Manning went to Detroit instead of the Colts? Would he still be successful?

What if Tim Couch went to a team with a solid offensive line and weapons around him plus having a few years to develop? Would he have been successful vs. being trust into the staring line up?

There are also players who shine in the NCAA but are complete busts in the NFL. Forget QB look at all the defensive players who have failed due to injuries or other problems (which is why I'm skeptical of Clowney).

To answer your question I think it comes down to (in no particular order):

1.) Not being placed in the right system.

2.) Being asked to do too much right away which hampers development.

3.) Injuries/overused in the college level and not having much left in the tank in the pros (true for many RBs).
 
LikeMike said:
Derek Carr
Click to expand...

I assume you were referring to David. Derek hasn't failed yet.

I was thinking about this yesterday because of the Texans draft position. How many quality QBs are taken in the first 5 of the draft? In going with this thread we could all list a ton of guys that didn't pan out after being chosen in the first 5.

Instead of doing that, let's look at the ones that are successful. For example, look at QBs in the playoffs now. Half of them were not even taken in the first round.

Andrew Luck (taken #1 overall, however is one of those very rare can't miss guys like John Elway)

Alex Smith (taken #1 overall and didn't pan out for the team that took him. Not a franchise guy and at best a decent game manager. Not worth anywhere close to where he was taken)

Drew Brees (taken in the 2nd round)

Nick Foles (taken in the 3rd round)

Philip Rivers (taken #4 overall, not worth the #4 pick IMO)

Andy Dalton (taken in the 2nd round)

Colin Kaepernick (taken in the 2nd round)

Aaron Rogers (taken #24 overall)

Russell Wilson (taken in the 3rd round)

Tom Brady (taken in the 6th round)

Peyton Manning (#1 overall, obviously was worth going #1)

Cam Newton (#1 overall, jury is still out however having a solid season after a down season last year)
 
Well, we have 4 that were taken first overall, one that was considered for the first pick (Rodgers) and a top 5 pick. Several guys taken later were taken later because of their size. Brady didn`t have a very impressive college career and probably is the ultimate late round pick...

I´d say that pretty much shows, that most great QBs were either drafted high, or were wrongly judged because of their size.

What I was thinking about is stuff like:

Vince Young - bad throwing technique, immature, not too strong mentally, lacked determination to do everything he has to do to get better

Gabbert - slow through his reads, can`t handle pressure, crumbles under big hits

In those cases, I´d say Bridgewater compares pretty good. His technique is very good, just a little low (right next to his ear) - but I don`t see this as a deal breaker. He seems to be very mature and loving the game enough to work on his craft. He had his best games on the big stage but of course it remains to be seen, how strong he is mentally. But he is very fast through his reads, excells at avoiding pressure and gets up quickly and unfazed after a big hit...

Which other weaknesses have you seen in great college QBs that failed in the NBA?
 
While it's really fun to say we could draft the next great QB in the 2nd round or later it's like investing money in penny stocks. The draft is is risky no matter how much research teams do. The longer you wait to draft a player the bigger the failure rate. You can find undrafted players that won the superbowl. Does that mean we should just grab a UDFA QB and hope they pan out?
 
Same reason players from every other position also fail. it's a different game where you're no longer the big fish in the small pond. There is no guarantee of anything.
 
In all honesty, I don't know.

Surely there are a number of variables, but I think the most important is their drive. For some guys, the NFL is the destination. It becomes a job not very different from what we do. How many of us are recognized among the top 10, much less top 32 in our field?

For the others, that's not good enough. They want to be the best of the best..... still other wanting to be the best of all time.
 
I think you'll find its all over the board. The biggest reason Young failed is different than the reason Carr failed is different than the reason Locker failed.

I think the best you can do is pick a kid with drive and brains (and of course the basics to being a good QB) and hope for the best and a bit of luck.
 
BullNation4Life said:
JMO, Head coaches and OC's try and force a QB to fit their system instead of designing a system to fit their QB. If the college QB hasn't been accustomed to taking snaps from under center, then why try and force him to do so. Instead get creative and design an offense to fit those skills...

Comes down to pure ego on the HC and OC....
Click to expand...

Sounds like someone who is still chapped that Vince Young didn't make it. You have to be able to .. primarily .. take snaps from under center in the NFL. Anything else is just gimmickry that is eventually figured out and exposed by most defensive coordinators.

Bottom line .. these superstar college QBs that end up being busts, never learned how to "read" an NFL defense, either because they were too stupid, or didn't want to put in the effort.

Do I have any confidence that any of the current college crop will turn out to be a successful NFL QB?

None whatsoever.
 
Marcus said:
Sounds like someone who is still chapped that Vince Young didn't make it. You have to be able to .. primarily .. take snaps from under center in the NFL. Anything else is just gimmickry that is eventually figured out and exposed by most defensive coordinators.

Bottom line .. these superstar college QBs that end up being busts, never learned how to "read" an NFL defense, either because they were too stupid, or didn't want to put in the effort.

Do I have any confidence that any of the current college crop will turn out to be a successful NFL QB?

None whatsoever.
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Hmm.. what I read about Bridgewater is, he excells at reading a defense both pre snap and after the snap. Also he seems to be extremely intelligent and love the game, so effort shouldn`t be a problem. Oh, and of course he takes the majority of snaps under center. Why don`t you think he could be successful?
 
There are a lot of reasons. Some guys just go to bad situations where they languish on a bad team with bad coaches, pick up bad habits, regress or get shell shocked from being sacked 70 times a season.

The speed and complexity of the NFL game is on a completely different level from college ball. Every defender you're facing was the best guy on his college team, the windows are smaller and close faster, reads are more complex and have to be made faster, etc.

For other guys, the celebrity and money are a distraction. In college they were still playing for their big payday, but any high pick that plays out his rookie deal is set for life. It becomes a question of commitment to being great or just doing enough not to get cut and keep the money flowing for your purple drank.

It's why teams place a lot more emphasis on the interviews while Mel and the talking hair helmets are wetting themselves over 40s. They have to try to gauge these guys and see how committed they are when they've all been coached on what to say.
 
LikeMike said:
Hmm.. what I read about Bridgewater is, he excells at reading a defense both pre snap and after the snap. Also he seems to be extremely intelligent and love the game, so effort shouldn`t be a problem. Oh, and of course he takes the majority of snaps under center. Why don`t you think he could be successful?
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Because he won't be given the chance to be successful before he ends up ruined. I don't think any rookie QB drafted would be successful here. We have trench issues upfront. There's never been a more truer axiom that says "it all starts upfront".' It astounds me sometimes how many here under appreciate the importance of it.

All I see, is another David Carr regurgitation, no matter who is drafted. I'm sorry to be so negative about it, but the way I see it, because of the fanbase's emotional need to be entertained, the cart will be put before the horse . . . again.

This last season took away any lasting desire to drink Kool-Aid folks. If you think I was a cynic before . . . stick around.
 
Marcus said:
Because he won't be given the chance to be successful before he ends up ruined. I don't think any rookie QB drafted would be successful here. We have trench issues upfront. There's never been a more truer axiom that says "it all starts upfront".' It astounds me sometimes how many here under appreciate the importance of it.

All I see, is another David Carr regurgitation, no matter who is drafted. I'm sorry to be so negative about it, but the way I see it, because of the fanbase's emotional need to be entertained, the cart will be put before the horse . . . again.

This last season took away any lasting desire to drink Kool-Aid folks. If you think I was a cynic before . . . stick around.
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From the center position to the left is very solid. It's the RG and RT position that suck. If we draft a right tackle and he pans out, that will elevate the RG position. Our line now compared to carrs line is worlds different. Worlds.

Not saying we are world beaters but we have two all pros on our line. We were no where close to a pro bowler with carr.

I disagree that our new guy is going to get "ruined".
 
8 words.. Windows close and the speed of the game.


QBs in the college game can have all of the physical skill blessed upon them, but once they reach the NFL, they aren't throwing through wide open windows.. they're throwing through door peepholes. Which separates the men from the boys. The bust usually falls into two different categories those that are brave enough to do it and can't and then those that won't even try and become check down monsters.. (David Carr)

Then throw in the speed difference between the NCAA and the NFL and how fast those windows close.. then throw millions of dollars on top of that bonfire and you'll understand why only a small few actually are able to succeed on the football field and step through the flames.
 
Marcus said:
Because he won't be given the chance to be successful before he ends up ruined. I don't think any rookie QB drafted would be successful here. We have trench issues upfront. There's never been a more truer axiom that says "it all starts upfront".' It astounds me sometimes how many here under appreciate the importance of it.

All I see, is another David Carr regurgitation, no matter who is drafted. I'm sorry to be so negative about it, but the way I see it, because of the fanbase's emotional need to be entertained, the cart will be put before the horse . . . again.

This last season took away any lasting desire to drink Kool-Aid folks. If you think I was a cynic before . . . stick around.
Click to expand...

So you think it is more about our situation than about the players and that QBs like Bridgewater could succeed under the right circumstances?

I agree with you and the trenches - before last season I was screaming for more RT help, but most people considered other areas (ILB, OLB, NT, CB) more important.

That being said, our line does not suck. Brown had a down year, but he is still pretty good, so is Myers. And we have some young talent here including two players that got injured before last season. Of course w need to do something about our line, but if we can find one serviceable RT and a good guard around our players, FA and draft, then we`d be solid.
 
College QBs are use to throwing to wide open receivers, but in the NFL they have to be far more accurate with their passes because unlike in college the receivers are often tightly covered. So ultimately it boils down to passing accuracy, even more than arm strength.
 
LikeMike said:
... but if we can find one serviceable RT and a good guard around our players, FA and draft, then we`d be solid.
Click to expand...

Wasn't that the same line that was said last year? If, if, if, if ....

Our line does not suck.
Click to expand...

We'll just have to agree to disagree, but then you would be wrong.;)
 
Marcus said:
Wasn't that the same line that was said last year? If, if, if, if ....



We'll just have to agree to disagree, but then you would be wrong.;)
Click to expand...

Sure, we said that last year. We also didn`t have a RT worth a damn, a declining Wade Smith and two young Gs. NExt season we have two more RT that might end up playing G - and I am pretty sure the team knows, it has to improve it`s line. I fully expect a veteran FA signing and a 2nd or 3d round draft pick. What I am saying is, our line will be improved and look a lot better than it did last season.
 
Marcus said:
Because he won't be given the chance to be successful before he ends up ruined. I don't think any rookie QB drafted would be successful here. We have trench issues upfront. There's never been a more truer axiom that says "it all starts upfront".' It astounds me sometimes how many here under appreciate the importance of it.

All I see, is another David Carr regurgitation, no matter who is drafted. I'm sorry to be so negative about it, but the way I see it, because of the fanbase's emotional need to be entertained, the cart will be put before the horse . . . again.

This last season took away any lasting desire to drink Kool-Aid folks. If you think I was a cynic before . . . stick around.
Click to expand...

Yep because Carr was the most dedicated worker and had the greatest offensive coaching a QB could hope for. It was all the O-line's fault that he failed.
 
sometexansfan said:
Yep because Carr was the most dedicated worker and had the greatest offensive coaching a QB could hope for. It was all the O-line's fault that he failed.
Click to expand...

To return to the thread topic title, if you look at the history of QBs drafted high in the first round, most of them don't end up being worth the money it took to sign them.

I know some of you are all gaga about Terry Bridgewater. And yes, I know every situation is different. But I just see him ending up in the bust category.
 
You have to be pretty special to overcome a bad team, especially early in the career. Guys that are a notch or two (or more) below special have to be put in the right situation. And they can develop. No one thought Brady was anything special when he was drafted because frankly, he wasn't. His first couple years were spent as a game manager. He had the luxury of playing for a damn good team with good coaching. Anyone really, honestly believe Brady would have become THE Tom Brady if he had been drafted by the Browns? Now guys like Elway are going to shine no matter where, but even then, his team was never quite good enough until they changed the entire system under Shanahan. He got better as he got older, too. Then there are guys like Carr who never put in the work, but were blessed with special physical talent. Michael Vick is another example of that. He admitted on TV to Jim Mora that he never studied film that Mora sent home with him.

So the answer is all over the map, but it starts with an honest evaluation of what you have. Guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, etc. aren't special. If they're drafted into the right situation, they might do well, and they may eventually develop into a great QB in that situation.

The question is, do you think any QB coming out this year is going to be drafted into the right situation in Houston, and are they special? Whatever your answer, if you're being honest, you can understand the opposite answer.
 
Marcus said:
Sounds like someone who is still chapped that Vince Young didn't make it. You have to be able to .. primarily .. take snaps from under center in the NFL. Anything else is just gimmickry that is eventually figured out and exposed by most defensive coordinators.

Bottom line .. these superstar college QBs that end up being busts, never learned how to "read" an NFL defense, either because they were too stupid, or didn't want to put in the effort.

Do I have any confidence that any of the current college crop will turn out to be a successful NFL QB?

None whatsoever.
Click to expand...

Sounds like someone who doesn't know WTF he is talking about.

I NEEEEEEVER wanted Vince Young on the Texans. Stupid athletes never make good QB, and Vince Young is the poster child of stupid. The man posed a question and I gave him my opinion.
 
eriadoc said:
You have to be pretty special to overcome a bad team, especially early in the career. Guys that are a notch or two (or more) below special have to be put in the right situation. And they can develop. No one thought Brady was anything special when he was drafted because frankly, he wasn't. His first couple years were spent as a game manager. He had the luxury of playing for a damn good team with good coaching. Anyone really, honestly believe Brady would have become THE Tom Brady if he had been drafted by the Browns? Now guys like Elway are going to shine no matter where, but even then, his team was never quite good enough until they changed the entire system under Shanahan. He got better as he got older, too. Then there are guys like Carr who never put in the work, but were blessed with special physical talent. Michael Vick is another example of that. He admitted on TV to Jim Mora that he never studied film that Mora sent home with him.

So the answer is all over the map, but it starts with an honest evaluation of what you have. Guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, etc. aren't special. If they're drafted into the right situation, they might do well, and they may eventually develop into a great QB in that situation.

The question is, do you think any QB coming out this year is going to be drafted into the right situation in Houston, and are they special? Whatever your answer, if you're being honest, you can understand the opposite answer.
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Good post, MSR. Unless you're truly special ala Peyton Manning, you've got to be put in the right situation. Going beyond that, the coach has to know how to develop u...which requires a good HC.

Most these guys haven't had to use more than their instincts and athleticism playing qb b/c they're usually 1 of the 5 best athletes on the field every week.

The field levels out once u get up to the NFL. You no longer have the elite athleticism advantage....or in the case of Lienart, playing with that elite talent. The game up there is played much more between the ears. And b/c those guys haven't had to do that much.....thats why they fail imo.
 
Dutchrudder said:
Some guys just can't handle their hookers and blow.
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Knew guys that couldn't handle that at big colleges either.

Lienart failed because he was lazy. Had all the tools and the brains, put never really put his heart into it.

As far as other USC guys go, not sure why Sanchez fell off, besides the same thing. Physical and mental tools that you look for, played in a pro-style offense in college. Could have used an extra year in college. Then again, maybe Rex can't develop QBs. Should at least be a good backup

VY was obviously too emotionally fragile to make it.
 
I copied this off some cat Cannonball on Clutchfans.

Link = http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=249124

Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs.

First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady.

Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit")

Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King

Round 3
2013: Mike Glennon
2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2011: Ryan Mallett
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: (none)
2008: Kevin O'Connell
2007: Trent Edwards
2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle
2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene
2004: Matt Schaub
2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
2002: Josh McCown
2001: (none)
2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman
1999: Brock Huard

Round 4
2013: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones
2012: Kirk Cousins
2011: (none)
2010: Mike Kafka
2009: Stephen McGee
2008: (none)
2007: Isaiah Stanback
2006: Brad Smith
2005: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors
2004: Luke McCown
2003: Seneca Wallace
2002: David Garrard, Patrick Davey
2001: Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer
2000: (none)
1999: Joe Germaine, Aaron Brooks

Round 5
2013: (none)
2012: (none)
2011: Ricky Stanzi, TJ Yates, Nathan Enderley
2010: John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton
2009: Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis
2008: John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson, Erik Ainge
2007: Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith
2006: Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs
2005: Dan Orlovsky, Adrian McPherson
2004: Craig Krenzel
2003: Brian St. Pierre
2002: Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Brandon Doman, Craig Nall
2001: Mike McMahon, AJ Feely
2000: Tee Martin
1999: Kevin Daft

Round 6
2013: (none)
2012: Ryan Lindley
2011: Tyrod Taylor
2010: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike
2009: Tom Brandstarter, Mike Teel, Keith Null, Curtis Painter
2008: Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson
2007: Jordan Palmer
2006: Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski
2005: Derek Anderson
2004: Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker
2003: Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury
2002: JT O'Sullivan, Steve Bellisari,
2001: Josh Booty, Josh Heupel
2000: Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Tom Brady, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider
1999: (none)

Round 7
2013: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree
2012: BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish
2011: Greg McElroy
2010: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson
2009: (none)
2008: Matt Flynn, Alex Brink
2007: Tyler Thigpen
2006: DJ Shockley
2005: James Kilian, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick
2004: John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlett, Matt Mauck, BJ Symons, Bradlee Van Pelt
2003: Gibran Handan, Ken Dorsey
2002: Seth Burford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate
2001: (none)
2000: Tim Rattay, Jarioius Jackson, Joe Hamilton, Billy Volek
1999: Michael Bishop, Chris Greisen, Scott Covington
 
eriadoc said:
You have to be pretty special to overcome a bad team, especially early in the career. Guys that are a notch or two (or more) below special have to be put in the right situation. And they can develop. No one thought Brady was anything special when he was drafted because frankly, he wasn't. His first couple years were spent as a game manager. He had the luxury of playing for a damn good team with good coaching. Anyone really, honestly believe Brady would have become THE Tom Brady if he had been drafted by the Browns? Now guys like Elway are going to shine no matter where, but even then, his team was never quite good enough until they changed the entire system under Shanahan. He got better as he got older, too. Then there are guys like Carr who never put in the work, but were blessed with special physical talent. Michael Vick is another example of that. He admitted on TV to Jim Mora that he never studied film that Mora sent home with him.

So the answer is all over the map, but it starts with an honest evaluation of what you have. Guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, etc. aren't special. If they're drafted into the right situation, they might do well, and they may eventually develop into a great QB in that situation.

The question is, do you think any QB coming out this year is going to be drafted into the right situation in Houston, and are they special? Whatever your answer, if you're being honest, you can understand the opposite answer.
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Repped, great post. Now the only question that remains is: what makes a guy special. Guys with great physical traits often fail because of mental issues, either lack of football intelligence or motivation to work on your craft. Guys without great physical traits often get exposed by the superior competition in the NFL.

Bridgewater has great mental traits, great accuracy, but only good not great physical traits. Will that be enough? I think so - at the very least I think it is a risk we have to take if he has a good combine. And like Kiwi has shown, you have the best statistical chance to get your franchise QB when drafting one in the first round and especially when drafting first overall...
 
kiwitexansfan said:
Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.
Click to expand...

I think it is safe to say we're going to draft a QB in the first round. That's not the same thing as saying we're going to draft a QB at 1-1, or that we're going to draft Teddy Bridgewater.
 
Most of the difference, encompassing a lot of problems for a new QB out of college, lies within the increased speed of the D. Rarely is anyone wide open, good luck trying to run much (and staying healthy), you have to make your reads a lot faster, you must throw into smaller windows, the coverage is less often fooled, etc. Oh, and JJ Watt will kick your @$$.
 
LikeMike said:
Repped, great post. Now the only question that remains is: what makes a guy special. Guys with great physical traits often fail because of mental issues, either lack of football intelligence or motivation to work on your craft. Guys without great physical traits often get exposed by the superior competition in the NFL.

Bridgewater has great mental traits, great accuracy, but only good not great physical traits. Will that be enough? I think so - at the very least I think it is a risk we have to take if he has a good combine. And like Kiwi has shown, you have the best statistical chance to get your franchise QB when drafting one in the first round and especially when drafting first overall...
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That's easy..at least for me it is...If you look at the best qbs in the league almost all of them had 1 thing in common when they came out...They were/are tough mentally. All of them were/are ahead of the curve when it came to understanding that this game on this level is more about the mental than physical....whether that's smarts or mental toughness...usually both.


P. Manning- pretty much groomed from day 1 to be a film room junkie by Archie. I also think the prevailing thoughts on him not being able to win against Florida helped him even more mentally b/c it taught him how to deal with adversity...something he really hadn't had to deal with up to that point in his career.

Brady- All the road blocks he had to go thru at michigan..coming in #7 on the depth chart, spliting time with Drew Henson his senior year..that could've killed his NFL career right there. but i think him falling to the 6th round more than anything else did more to toughen him up mentally than anything he'd gone thru to that point.

Brees- motivated to prove the naysayers wrong about his lack of arm strength & guys his height coming out of college.....then after that the injury he suffered that threatened his career....The chargers draft day trade that brought Rivers to SD right as he was coming into his own in SD....perfect storm for him to build his mental fortitutude.

Rodgers...Like Brady, constantly being undervalued..dude had no scholarship offers coming out of high school..had to go to a JUCO to play....then falling as far as he did in the 1st round...him replacing a legend...

That's why i'm always weary of guys who depend on their athleticism too much playing qb...when i evaluate guys coming out of college poise is the 1 attribute that i weigh just as heavily as arm strength and all of the other physical attributes b/c it gives u the best window into where prospects are mentally playing the position imo.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
I copied this off some cat Cannonball on Clutchfans.

Link = http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=249124

Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs.

First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady.

Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit")

Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King

Round 3
2013: Mike Glennon
2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2011: Ryan Mallett
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: (none)
2008: Kevin O'Connell
2007: Trent Edwards
2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle
2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene
2004: Matt Schaub
2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
2002: Josh McCown
2001: (none)
2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman
1999: Brock Huard

Round 4
2013: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones
2012: Kirk Cousins
2011: (none)
2010: Mike Kafka
2009: Stephen McGee
2008: (none)
2007: Isaiah Stanback
2006: Brad Smith
2005: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors
2004: Luke McCown
2003: Seneca Wallace
2002: David Garrard, Patrick Davey
2001: Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer
2000: (none)
1999: Joe Germaine, Aaron Brooks

Round 5
2013: (none)
2012: (none)
2011: Ricky Stanzi, TJ Yates, Nathan Enderley
2010: John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton
2009: Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis
2008: John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson, Erik Ainge
2007: Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith
2006: Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs
2005: Dan Orlovsky, Adrian McPherson
2004: Craig Krenzel
2003: Brian St. Pierre
2002: Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Brandon Doman, Craig Nall
2001: Mike McMahon, AJ Feely
2000: Tee Martin
1999: Kevin Daft

Round 6
2013: (none)
2012: Ryan Lindley
2011: Tyrod Taylor
2010: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike
2009: Tom Brandstarter, Mike Teel, Keith Null, Curtis Painter
2008: Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson
2007: Jordan Palmer
2006: Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski
2005: Derek Anderson
2004: Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker
2003: Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury
2002: JT O'Sullivan, Steve Bellisari,
2001: Josh Booty, Josh Heupel
2000: Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Tom Brady, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider
1999: (none)

Round 7
2013: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree
2012: BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish
2011: Greg McElroy
2010: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson
2009: (none)
2008: Matt Flynn, Alex Brink
2007: Tyler Thigpen
2006: DJ Shockley
2005: James Kilian, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick
2004: John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlett, Matt Mauck, BJ Symons, Bradlee Van Pelt
2003: Gibran Handan, Ken Dorsey
2002: Seth Burford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate
2001: (none)
2000: Tim Rattay, Jarioius Jackson, Joe Hamilton, Billy Volek
1999: Michael Bishop, Chris Greisen, Scott Covington
Click to expand...

This is actually thread worthy on its own right.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
I copied this off some cat Cannonball on Clutchfans.

Link = http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=249124

Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years.

Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs.

First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady.

Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit")

Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King
Click to expand...

He had Andy Dalton bolded, and well, I wouldn't call him a "hit." I think he's more of a game manager type. The guy who won't lose you the games, but he's not really clutch either. Cincy is unpredictable, but I think 3 straight 1st round playoff losses might be enough for management to realize the QB isn't getting it done. Next year is his contract year, so maybe he can step it up a little, but I'd be real surprised if he gets a big contract extension from the team.
 
Teams have won it all with players like Dalton at QB. We could have won one with Schaub at his best if things had broken right.

Cincinnati could win one if they stay healthy.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones.

Round 1
2013: EJ Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden
2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2001: Michael Vick
2000: Chad Pennington
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown

Round 2
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick
2010: Jimmy Clausen
2009: Pat White
2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne
2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton
2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson
2005: (none)
2004: (none)
2003: (none)
2002: (none)
2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo
2000: (none)
1999: Shaun King

Round 3
2013: Mike Glennon
2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2011: Ryan Mallett
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: (none)
2008: Kevin O'Connell
2007: Trent Edwards
2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle
2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene
2004: Matt Schaub
2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
2002: Josh McCown
2001: (none)
2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman
1999: Brock Huard
Click to expand...

I took the liberty to go ahead & bold a few names for the visual effect.
 
The college game allows a QB to compensate for a lot of flaws and weaknesses in their game that will get them eaten alive in the NFL.

VY is a classic case in point. His pure athleticism could make up for his inability to read defenses pre-snap or to make consistently tight throws in college. But, in the NFL, those weaknesses get exposed and exploited to the point that a one-trick pony has very little to offer if they do not have the ability to learn new tricks.

I think two primary factors that you see in the great NFL QBs is consistent accuracy and the clutch factor. Regardless of what they do in college or even early in their NFL careers, the great QBs all share the common traits of being cool under pressure (especially game-winning drives pressure) and avoiding stupid mistakes with accurate passes.

What the NFL requires of QBs to be championship successful is much more narrowly defined than what college level requires to be very successful. Add in the much faster speed of the game in the NFL and all the various exotic looks defenses show these days, and it is not a wonder why so few college QBs succeed in the pro game.
 
Could the distribution of talent be a factor? Leinart and Young, for example, played on dominant teams whose programs could attract the best talent available to them--thus they were throwing to better receivers from behind better blockers, while playing against those who had to take what they could get. In the NFL, everyone on the field is the best there is. The defenders are now much more likely to predict what you're going to do, and have the physical traits to do something about it. Your success depends on how you handle that.

Which, come to think of it, goes back to what people were saying about mental toughness and the speed of the game. Hm.
 
Guys taken in the first round have a higher percentage of panning out in part because their teams are going to give them a lot longer leash. Keenum got 8 games. Yates got about the same. You think the Texans would give up on a first round drafted QB after 8 games? Hell no. Even with the new rookie wage scale, teams aren't going to walk away from that money as easily as they will a later round draft pick. That's fine, but it does call into question the value of development. Again with the Brady example, he wouldn't be what he is today without his unique set of circumstances. Stick him in Cleveland and he probably never develops. Put Tim Couch in New England and he might have turned out differently. Brees didn't look like the guy he is now his first few season either. Development matters. Or, if you want to go back in time a bit, Steve Young is a good example. Looked great in college and in the USFL, but not in TB. SF grabs him off the scrap heap and now he's a HOFer.

So really it boils down to a valuation of risk vs. reward and philosophy. IMNSHO, if you see a guy like Elway, Manning, Marino, etc., you grab him in the first round. If you're looking at guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or probably any one of this year's crop, you take a flier a bit later and try to develop them. It sucks, but it beats spending four years trying to figure out if David Carr really is the problem, or if it's coaching, scheme, O-Line, etc. To me, that purgatory is worse than drafting the next Jamarcus Russell. At least then you'd know to cut bait sooner. But that goes back to the money. If you spent even just $20M on a first round QB, you're not letting him go before year three at the earliest, more likely year four or five.

That's the rest of AJ's good years. We got the #1 pick on the wrong year, folks. Doesn't mean we can't get lucky, but it's more likely that they're going to have to draft a guy that is either a developmental project, or one that is polished now but probably doesn't have elite potential.
 
eriadoc said:
So really it boils down to a valuation of risk vs. reward and philosophy. IMNSHO, if you see a guy like Elway, Manning, Marino, etc., you grab him in the first round. If you're looking at guys like Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, or probably any one of this year's crop, you take a flier a bit later and try to develop them. It sucks, but it beats spending four years trying to figure out if David Carr really is the problem, or if it's coaching, scheme, O-Line, etc. To me, that purgatory is worse than drafting the next Jamarcus Russell. At least then you'd know to cut bait sooner. But that goes back to the money. If you spent even just $20M on a first round QB, you're not letting him go before year three at the earliest, more likely year four or five.
Click to expand...

What do you think about Matt Stafford?

I think a guy like Stafford should have been a late top 10 pick, definitely not #1 overall.

But in 2009? Even with the benefit of hindsight, I can't find anyone I clearly wanted more.
 
Playoffs said:
It's between the ears.
Click to expand...
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...the-offense-continues-to-plague-josh-freeman/
Josh Freeman was released on Friday after just six weeks with the Giants, and his biggest problem in New York this offseason appears to be the same as his biggest problem in Minnesota last season: He struggles to learn the offense.

Shortly before Freeman was released, Jordan Raanan of NJ.com reported that Freeman had been pulled from a practice session in place of fellow backup quarterback Curtis Painter after Freeman lined up the offense incorrectly...
Click to expand...
 
Sorry if it's already been mentioned as a reason for lack if success but sometimes you have teams with so much turnover with the offensive coaches that I think it really screws with a players development. But my opinion is the biggest reasons for QBs not panning out is not being able to master an offense and read a defense.
 
chicagotexan2 said:
Sorry if it's already been mentioned as a reason for lack if success but sometimes you have teams with so much turnover with the offensive coaches that I think it really screws with a players development. But my opinion is the biggest reasons for QBs not panning out is not being able to master an offense and read a defense.
Click to expand...

I agree with that, but don't think it's the root cause. I think your first point is more right than not. Lots of turnover. This is a what have you done for me lately league. You got to win now.

Coaches don't get four years anymore. QBs don't get to develop. 15 to 20 prospects a year, on average 5 openings a year? Something like that.
 
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