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What role should analytics/data science play in our organization?

Texanmike02

Texanmike02

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In terms of analytics/machine learning utilization the three major sports look something like this:
Baseball >>>> Basketball >>>>>>>>>> Football

I think, however, it is time to start evaluating players/coaches using advanced metrics. I have seen all of the claims that "football is different", but I think we're at the point that we should be able to derive actionable intelligence. I know the Browns are analytics heavy (so I guess we should avoid whatever the hell they are doing lol) but are there any up and coming GM's that are using real ML technology to evaluate players?

I don't know the answer to that, but what I have in mind is kind of a football outsiders (on steroids) where algorithms are breaking down players movements/tells/breaking ability and play recognition.

Anyone else have experience in the ml/analytics field? How do you see this playing out?
 
This is going to be my opinion with very little knowledge of analytics in general.

Baseball and basketball use analytics when it comes to players and situations. Not just player ability. The NFL needs to use analytics during the game. Use it while determining down and distance, play calls, when to punt vs field goal vs go for it, etc. I think using analytics to evaluate player talent will never work in the NFL.
 
amazing80 said:
This is going to be my opinion with very little knowledge of analytics in general.

Baseball and basketball use analytics when it comes to players and situations. Not just player ability. The NFL needs to use analytics during the game. Use it while determining down and distance, play calls, when to punt vs field goal vs go for it, etc. I think using analytics to evaluate player talent will never work in the NFL.
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This about sums it up, I'd say.
 
Texanmike02 said:
I know the Browns are analytics heavy (so I guess we should avoid whatever the hell they are doing lol)
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I would be seeing the Browns as more of a blueprint team than the Pats or Steelers at this point.

They have finally got it together.

I was however shocked that they moved for OBJ, as i thought one of the things analytics would tell you is that a great team does not require great WRs (and certainly isnt necessarily composed with a lot of salary cap at the position) but then i guess they are on the rookie QB cap pass atm.
 
IMO, analytics should definitely be a portion of the process for determining your roster - maybe 40%. It's basically a statistical analysis of player performance vs. expense (which can include cost to acquire, bonuses, salary, etc...).

The Browns hired Paul DePodesta in 2016 and he has been a major contributor to their roster talent. Their odds to win SB LIV are 5th best according to versainsider.com.
Per DePodesta; “Analytics is not about sitting behind a computer and pushing enter and having it produce an answer,” he said, per ESPN. “This game is not a simulation. It’s played by real people and because of that, there’s just a tremendous amount of uncertainty that surrounds it. For us, it’s about how we use information, how we use data to really get our arms around that uncertainty.”

It's only as good as the data used but it should part of the evaluation process.
 
Please don't involve this analytical approach to our football. The high tech nerds can keep that schit to themselves.
That nonsense has ruined my freaking Rockets. Yeah they're in the race but when it's money time, that analytic crap doesn't work.
 
welsh texan said:
I would be seeing the Browns as more of a blueprint team than the Pats or Steelers at this point.

They have finally got it together.
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Have they?? I get the intrigue with all the moves they've made, but they haven't done squat on the field yet.

I know sports is about copycatting success, but you have to be successful first. Nobody was going to do what the Astros did if it didn't work. They won a WS, now everybody's trying to do it that way.

Let's pump the brakes on following the blueprint of a franchise that has been a perennial dumpster fire for two decades, until they actually do something on the field one time.
 
Analytics should always be apart of the pie....No more than 30-40% though imo. The issue is these nerds in positions of power that attempt to make it the majority of the pie when selecting talent & building teams. & that's been my issue with Morey & why I've largely been rolling my eyes at the Rockets every since Morey took over. His analytics that drive his 3 & D philosophy say that we should be chucking 3's @ a ridiculous rate & he uses GSW as his example of why it works. What his analytics don't/can't factor in is that GSW has 3 of the all-time greatest shooters & players anchoring them. His system is using streaky, 1 trick I-can-only-shoot-it-well-from-1-spot guys. That's fine for the regular season, it'll keep you compettive...but there's a limit to that..

Analytics also can't factor in what's in a guys heart & his drive either. No way any analytic could told folks TB12 was going to be what he was...Altuve, same thing.
 
Texanmike02 said:
In terms of analytics/machine learning utilization the three major sports look something like this:
Baseball >>>> Basketball >>>>>>>>>> Football

I think, however, it is time to start evaluating players/coaches using advanced metrics. I have seen all of the claims that "football is different", but I think we're at the point that we should be able to derive actionable intelligence. I know the Browns are analytics heavy (so I guess we should avoid whatever the hell they are doing lol) but are there any up and coming GM's that are using real ML technology to evaluate players?

I don't know the answer to that, but what I have in mind is kind of a football outsiders (on steroids) where algorithms are breaking down players movements/tells/breaking ability and play recognition.

Anyone else have experience in the ml/analytics field? How do you see this playing out?
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The Browns were analytics heavy under Sashi Brown. They now have John Dorsey calling the shots. Depending on how Freddie Kitchens ends up as a HC, the Browns look very good on paper.

As far as analytics go, I don't think it's a very useful tool for individual players, but could be very useful in-game as another member posted. It's too dependent on every players execution on a given play in the NFL than it is in MLB or the NBA. You would have to know every players assignment on every single play and then determine whose play was more positive or negative on the play, then try to determine the magnitude of the positive or negative players impact on the overall play call. That's a bunch and it's very subjective.
 
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Mr teX said:
Analytics should always be apart of the pie....No more than 30-40% though imo. The issue is these nerds in positions of power that attempt to make it the majority of the pie when selecting talent & building teams. & that's been my issue with Morey & why I've largely been rolling my eyes at the Rockets every since Morey took over. His analytics that drive his 3 & D philosophy say that we should be chucking 3's @ a ridiculous rate & he uses GSW as his example of why it works. What his analytics don't/can't factor in is that GSW has 3 of the all-time greatest shooters & players anchoring them. His system is using streaky, 1 trick I-can-only-shoot-it-well-from-1-spot guys. That's fine for the regular season, it'll keep you compettive...but there's a limit to that..

Analytics also can't factor in what's in a guys heart & his drive either. No way any analytic could told folks TB12 was going to be what he was...Altuve, same thing.
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It doesn't help that Morey doesn't seem to get the players necessary to apply their 3 & D philosophy. Signing a career 25% 3pt shooter like MCW and 58 year old Melo, doesn't quite fit what you're trying to do. That'd be like the Texans drafting 2 TEs in a limited draft and never using them or bringing in a Lamar Miller and ramming him up the middle.

I'm far from an analytics nerd, but I don't think that's how it works.
 
Analytics when used properly offer a different look at the same situation. IMO it offers the best use in football during the preparation phase when implementing tendency and game theory. Having to sift through data on the sidelines in the 45 seconds between plays is too much to ask of anybody thats where the "feel" that a good head coach has or doesnt have comes into play in football. Only sport where the coach has as much of an impact in winning games as the players themselves. Not embracing analytics in the modern world of sport would only give your opponent an advantage. QB hot zones, offensive line alignment tendency, defensive alignments man there is a plethora of stuff you could probably numerate and install as a teaching tool if nothing else.

ps: Darryl Morey is so far ahead of the curve and thinking about moves 9,10, and 11 in a series of events that complaining about one or two of his moves is silly. The man has not fielded a losing team in what a decade all the while trying to build a contender which he has. Uncanny ability to find diamonds in the rough and also a master of the NBA salary cap and how to work it. Not afraid to make a SPLASH move, but he cuts his losses fast when he does make a mistake and rarely makes the same mistake twice. Great GM.
 
Speedy said:
It doesn't help that Morey doesn't seem to get the players necessary to apply their 3 & D philosophy. Signing a career 25% 3pt shooter like MCW and 58 year old Melo, doesn't quite fit what you're trying to do. That'd be like the Texans drafting 2 TEs in a limited draft and never using them or bringing in a Lamar Miller and ramming him up the middle.

I'm far from an analytics nerd, but I don't think that's how it works.
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lol, i see what u did there..
 
Uncle Rico said:
Analytics when used properly offer a different look at the same situation. IMO it offers the best use in football during the preparation phase when implementing tendency and game theory. Having to sift through data on the sidelines in the 45 seconds between plays is too much to ask of anybody thats where the "feel" that a good head coach has or doesnt have comes into play in football. Only sport where the coach has as much of an impact in winning games as the players themselves. Not embracing analytics in the modern world of sport would only give your opponent an advantage. QB hot zones, offensive line alignment tendency, defensive alignments man there is a plethora of stuff you could probably numerate and install as a teaching tool if nothing else.

ps: Darryl Morey is so far ahead of the curve and thinking about moves 9,10, and 11 in a series of events that complaining about one or two of his moves is silly. The man has not fielded a losing team in what a decade all the while trying to build a contender which he has. Uncanny ability to find diamonds in the rough and also a master of the NBA salary cap and how to work it. Not afraid to make a SPLASH move, but he cuts his losses fast when he does make a mistake and rarely makes the same mistake twice. Great GM.
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Uncle Rico said:
Analytics when used properly offer a different look at the same situation. IMO it offers the best use in football during the preparation phase when implementing tendency and game theory. Having to sift through data on the sidelines in the 45 seconds between plays is too much to ask of anybody thats where the "feel" that a good head coach has or doesnt have comes into play in football. Only sport where the coach has as much of an impact in winning games as the players themselves. Not embracing analytics in the modern world of sport would only give your opponent an advantage. QB hot zones, offensive line alignment tendency, defensive alignments man there is a plethora of stuff you could probably numerate and install as a teaching tool if nothing else.

ps: Darryl Morey is so far ahead of the curve and thinking about moves 9,10, and 11 in a series of events that complaining about one or two of his moves is silly. The man has not fielded a losing team in what a decade all the while trying to build a contender which he has. Uncanny ability to find diamonds in the rough and also a master of the NBA salary cap and how to work it. Not afraid to make a SPLASH move, but he cuts his losses fast when he does make a mistake and rarely makes the same mistake twice. Great GM.
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Lol, they already do the bolded bro, its called a scouting report.

Football is unique in so many other ways from basketball & baseball its not even funny.
Analytics has less of a practical use in football than in the other sports for the following reasons:

- 22 different players playing 22 unique positions...
- no 1 player can take over and completely dominate a game on both sides..not even the qb.
- breaks in between series allow for adjustments and tweeks to digest what you're seeing & noone's calling plays on the sideline based on what they've seen 45 seconds between plays bro. Hella impractical for how the game flows.
- the elements - Football games tend to be played regardless of how bad the elements become.......& those things affect tendency and game theory. Something that basketball doesn't have to deal with at all & baseball rarely deals with.
- number of games....16 shots & then you're 1 and done...no 5/7 game series. Easier to mask tendencies in a 1 & done situation than in a 5/7 game series like baseball & basketball where you get a few games to feel your opponent out.
- The 3rd phase of the game: ST's. Throw out the tendencies of the offense & defense......lets trot out or least athletic player to win the game for us........................in the elements no less, lol. baseball has a semi-3rd phase with the bullpen & closers...basketball, no. how many games have been won or lost b/c a kicker choked again?

As far as your Morey stuff............:smiliepalm:. We're not criticizing 1 or 2 moves per se so much as we're saying the moves he makes to further this 3 & D philosophy aren't very effective in the face of what he's been trying to accomplish.....& not fielding a losing team is not what he's trying to accomplish.
 
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Texansballer74 said:
Please don't involve this analytical approach to our football. The high tech nerds can keep that schit to themselves.
That nonsense has ruined my freaking Rockets. Yeah they're in the race but when it's money time, that analytic crap doesn't work.
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You say this about Luhnow and the Astros?

Les has held Morey back. This will be a couple of very interesting yrs for Tilman/Morey and the Rockets. Plus nobody is going to beat a healthy Warriors team.
 
Mr teX said:
Analytics should always be apart of the pie....No more than 30-40% though imo. The issue is these nerds in positions of power that attempt to make it the majority of the pie when selecting talent & building teams. & that's been my issue with Morey & why I've largely been rolling my eyes at the Rockets every since Morey took over. His analytics that drive his 3 & D philosophy say that we should be chucking 3's @ a ridiculous rate & he uses GSW as his example of why it works. What his analytics don't/can't factor in is that GSW has 3 of the all-time greatest shooters & players anchoring them. His system is using streaky, 1 trick I-can-only-shoot-it-well-from-1-spot guys. That's fine for the regular season, it'll keep you compettive...but there's a limit to that..

Analytics also can't factor in what's in a guys heart & his drive either. No way any analytic could told folks TB12 was going to be what he was...Altuve, same thing.
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Does analytics tell them that their forwards should be taller than 6'4?
 
steelbtexan said:
You say this about Luhnow and the Astros?

Les has held Morey back. This will be a couple of very interesting yrs for Tilman/Morey and the Rockets. Plus nobody is going to beat a healthy Warriors team.
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I never talked about Luhnow and analytics. Come on bro.

And no Les did not hold Morey back.
 
steelbtexan said:
Does analytics tell them that their forwards should be taller than 6'4?
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Morey holds himself back b/c he refuses to develop players and he kills team chemistry every damn year by shipping guys off in search of a superstar. Even this year "everyone's on the table" to be traded...Who wants to play in a situation like that?
 
Mr teX said:
Morey holds himself back b/c he refuses to develop players and he kills team chemistry every damn year by shipping guys off in search of a superstar. Even this year "everyone's on the table" to be traded...Who wants to play in a situation like that?
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Strange, I never really thought about it like that when I heard him say that. That's exactly how Lebron got L.A.'s teammates all squeamish and out of it mentally. I could see that being an annoyance on the Rockets to hear that from your GM. That is probably a comment best kept quiet.
 
https://www.si.com/mmqb/2017/06/27/...endencies-player-tracking-injuries-chip-kelly

it tends to go above and beyond a simple 'game plan' and I dont really want to be long winded in a room of eye test professionals.

I did think this was cute when it came out .. this is alot of you guys' fearless leader and his stance on using numbers to validate philosophy.

https://www.battleredblog.com/2014/...erence-on-brandon-brooks-j-j-watt-statistical

(on if he uses analytics in his game planning) "I get asked that a lot. I know I’m a Brown graduate, but I don’t really know what that means. Do I use a computer?"

(on if he uses statistical analytics in game planning and play calling) "No question. No question. The thing is now with the way that the video is set up, everything is on computers. So really you can almost overthink yourself a lot because you can break the game down into so many different areas. Like I’m watching Jacksonville right now and if you just look at, for instance, Jacksonville’s third down, you can look at it in about five or six different ways based on the personnel, the front, the coverage, the blitz. So you’ve got to be careful there, but we definitely in all three phases use, I guess the word be analytics, to figure out what the tendencies are, what our calls may be in those situations. But at the end of the day it’s football and you just have to put your player in the best position to go make plays."

(on how much attention he pays attention to what percentage of time a certain play or play type works) "I think we look at that a lot. When we call the plays in all three phases, we usually side more with changing things up. We call it spinning the dial. But I also think that there are times when repeat calls are pretty good. Hey, this has worked. Let’s go back to it. There is a fine line there, but I do repeat calls, no question about it."
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LMAO sometimes I'll read some of Buttchins greatest hits and man do they still make me laugh.
 
I figure it depends on the front office and coaching staff using the analytics. I don't see every staff being anywhere near equal to each other.

Just a quick Google search revealed the following recent article:

Patriots take pride in their use of analytics to help scouting

So yeah, take it fwiw, but when one of the most successful franchises in NFL history uses it to some degree or another, you can certainly make a case for it.

But obviously, it goes back to the people using the information. When that team also has one of the greatest head coaches, then it's just another tool in the toolbox.

I do wonder if some teams - like the Browns - can often make it the ONLY tool in their box. Time will tell.
 
I figure it depends on the front office and coaching staff using the analytics. I don't see every staff being anywhere near equal to each other.

Just a quick Google search revealed the following recent article:

Patriots take pride in their use of analytics to help scouting

So yeah, take it fwiw, but when one of the most successful franchises in NFL history uses it to some degree or another, you can certainly make a case for it.

But obviously, it goes back to the people using the information. When that team also has one of the greatest head coaches, then it's just another tool in the toolbox.

I do wonder if some teams - like the Browns - can often make it the ONLY tool in their box. Time will tell.
 
Its not a matter of if analytics can be used....I believe every sport uses them to a degree. Its when folks over-value its place...that's the issue. At the end of the day, talent, drive & mental fortitude trump analytics every day of the week.
 
Perhaps it's just me but in basketball there are 5 positional players, in baseball 9 positional players, in football there are 11 offense + 11 defense + often a punter and kicker Plus special teams. IMO, the increase in players decrease analytical effectiveness. There is a need for analysis, I'm just not sure how much.
 
badboy said:
Perhaps it's just me but in basketball there are 5 positional players, in baseball 9 positional players, in football there are 11 offense + 11 defense + often a punter and kicker Plus special teams. IMO, the increase in players decrease analytical effectiveness. There is a need for analysis, I'm just not sure how much.
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Yeah, it definitely doesn't work the same way. In baseball a batter hits the ball here this percentage of times. That's why you see the shifts. Doesn't mean it's 100% but more often than not, it's what it is. People get mad when a ball goes through where the SS is traditionally supposed to be, but the percentage is higher of the ball going to the SS on the 2B side. It's definitely about percentages.

Shooting and making a higher percentage of 2 pointers is not as effective as shooting and making a lower percentage of 3 pointers. In high volumes like the Rockets do, that is. The math simply works better for the high volume of 3s. This guy hits the corner 3 at a much higher clip than taking it on the wing. In basketball and baseball you can put a number to it.

I don't know how any of that works in football because football is more of a chess match. You run plays during the course of a game to set something up later on. Tendencies you see watching film, you can't put a number on that. There's so many moving parts, so much motion and disguises and reads, I don't know how analytics plays a part there.
 
Speedy said:
Yeah, it definitely doesn't work the same way. In baseball a batter hits the ball here this percentage of times. That's why you see the shifts. Doesn't mean it's 100% but more often than not, it's what it is. People get mad when a ball goes through where the SS is traditionally supposed to be, but the percentage is higher of the ball going to the SS on the 2B side. It's definitely about percentages.

Shooting and making a higher percentage of 2 pointers is not as effective as shooting and making a lower percentage of 3 pointers. In high volumes like the Rockets do, that is. The math simply works better for the high volume of 3s. This guy hits the corner 3 at a much higher clip than taking it on the wing. In basketball and baseball you can put a number to it.

I don't know how any of that works in football because football is more of a chess match. You run plays during the course of a game to set something up later on. Tendencies you see watching film, you can't put a number on that. There's so many moving parts, so much motion and disguises and reads, I don't know how analytics plays a part there.
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The baseball guys keep crazy stats like player A hits .300 when playing on natural grass, during night games with the wing coming out of the south but only hits .275 if the wind comes out of the north.

In the NFL, analytics really only lends itself to finding tendencies while game-planning, imo.
 
Speedy said:
Yeah, it definitely doesn't work the same way. In baseball a batter hits the ball here this percentage of times. That's why you see the shifts. Doesn't mean it's 100% but more often than not, it's what it is. People get mad when a ball goes through where the SS is traditionally supposed to be, but the percentage is higher of the ball going to the SS on the 2B side. It's definitely about percentages.

Shooting and making a higher percentage of 2 pointers is not as effective as shooting and making a lower percentage of 3 pointers. In high volumes like the Rockets do, that is. The math simply works better for the high volume of 3s. This guy hits the corner 3 at a much higher clip than taking it on the wing. In basketball and baseball you can put a number to it.

I don't know how any of that works in football because football is more of a chess match. You run plays during the course of a game to set something up later on. Tendencies you see watching film, you can't put a number on that. There's so many moving parts, so much motion and disguises and reads, I don't know how analytics plays a part there.
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The Browns are the test case and I bet they have a really good yr this yr. They had a plan and executed the plan. They also get the best players they can on their team without all of the Texans Worthy BS.
 
DocBar said:
The baseball guys keep crazy stats like player A hits .300 when playing on natural grass, during night games with the wing coming out of the south but only hits .275 if the wind comes out of the north.

In the NFL, analytics really only lends itself to finding tendencies while game-planning, imo.
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Analytics can also be a vital part of scouting for the draft.
 
steelbtexan said:
The Browns are the test case and I bet they have a really good yr this yr. They had a plan and executed the plan. They also get the best players they can on their team without all of the Texans Worthy BS.
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The Browns canned their analytics GM, Sachi Brown, 2 years ago and brought in John Dorsey. Dorsey is the guy actually made hay with the draft picks and got the best players.

I live about 45 minutes from the Browns stadium. I'll be following them closely. Might even go see a game or two.
 
steelbtexan said:
Analytics can also be a vital part of scouting for the draft.
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How so?

Generally curious here as I'm not sure what or how analytics would be used in scouting for the draft, other than the measurements and metrics we already get from the combine.
 
Mollywhopper said:
How so?

Generally curious here as I'm not sure what or how analytics would be used in scouting for the draft, other than the measurements and metrics we already get from the combine.
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Things like who a guy played against, his football iq, devotion to the craft, of course his measurables. How a guy performs in a dome vs say Buffalo. Has he been clutch. How a guy fits in within the system you are trying to run can all be helped using an anlytics approach. I'm not saying analytics is the be all end all, but it's a significant piece of the puzzle. IMHO
 
DocBar said:
The Browns canned their analytics GM, Sachi Brown, 2 years ago and brought in John Dorsey. Dorsey is the guy actually made hay with the draft picks and got the best players.

I live about 45 minutes from the Browns stadium. I'll be following them closely. Might even go see a game or two.
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Yep, and thanks to RS he had a bounty of draft capital. Sashi set the team up for success and Dorsey used the cap space and draft picks Sashi stocked up on to build a contender. Dorsey walked in to a gold mine.
 
steelbtexan said:
Things like who a guy played against, his football iq, devotion to the craft, of course his measurables. How a guy performs in a dome vs say Buffalo. Has he been clutch. How a guy fits in within the system you are trying to run can all be helped using an anlytics approach. I'm not saying analytics is the be all end all, but it's a significant piece of the puzzle. IMHO
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I agree that those things should be valued, guess I just don't see how they're seen as any more 'analytics' than how they were being compiled and used before analytics became such a thing.
 
What does a quarterback do if rushed from the left by a DB. Does he consistently hand off to an RB, dump to a tight end , take a sack, or throw out of bounds. Does a cornerback consistently bite on a certain fake move by a wide receiver. How does the wide receiver respond if bumped at the line of scrimmage. Things such as these are Analytics most teams use in my opinion.

Edited for spelling
 
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badboy said:
What does a quarterback do if rushed from the left by a DB. Does he consistently hand off to an RB, dump to a tight end , take a sack, or throw out of bounds. Does a cornerback consistently bite on a certain fake move by a wide receiver. How does the wide receiver respond if bumped at the line of scrimmage. Things such as these are Analytics most teams use in my opinion.
Edited for spelling
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This is what the quality control coaches are suppose to be doing. Not only running analytics to catch opponents' tendencies, but also for self scouting.
 
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Interesting article. I had no idea Cris Collingsworth was the controlling owner of PFF. @steelbtexan @Texian I think I found new careers for you two.

When I broadcast my first NFL game during the 1989 season, I had absolutely no idea what to study or how to study. NBC provided me with a handful of newspaper articles, we watched some film at the team facility on Friday before the game, and we interviewed some players and coaches. I took notes, but I didn’t even have a board with the players’ names and numbers on it.

I was thrown into the deep end of the pool. This was going to be the shortest broadcasting career ever. Luckily, I had David Michaels as my producer (yes, Al Michaels’ brother). David had worked for years with Terry Bradshaw, and Terry had created these boards for calling games. The positions were aligned on this board where they would line up on the field. Offense facing defense, back-ups behind starters. All I had to do was fill in the blanks. Once again, my friend Terry was ahead of his time, and David showed me how to use it.

When I think back to those days, it’s pretty comical. Today, I could never read, watch or study all the data that I have available to me. In 2014, I bought controlling interest in Pro Football Focus. At the time we had 60 employees evaluating every player on every play of the NFL season. Now we have nearly 500 employees, providing data to 90 NFL and NCAA teams, multiple television networks and individuals who use it for private purposes. I won’t get into all the details, but if you are a data scientist, mathematician or IT specialist, and you love football, we are hiring.
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DocBar said:
Interesting article. I had no idea Cris Collingsworth was the controlling owner of PFF. @steelbtexan @Texian I think I found new careers for you two.
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Wowser, who knew ?
And 500 employees, that's a big employer, good for Collingsworth. I dunno but with that big of an organization guess there's no body else who's even close to providing the kind of service they do ?
Good find DocBar !
 
I knew..last year they did a football life episode on him and they talked a little about that.
 
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