Before I get too excited, have you (or will you) shared how we can expect this guy to fall apart physically by Year 3 yet?
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Welcome to Houston Jayden Higgins
- Thread starter Texansballer74
- Start date
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
This is best and most detailed analysis of Higgins' performance in college I've come across.
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2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Jayden Higgins, WR Iowa State
Texansballer74
The Marine
Working out on that crappy field makes me nervous.
Dejaview
Wahoo Sabi
He’s almost as quick as I am but I’ll widen the gap when I get this cast off my right leg. Actually I was thinking about the same thing while looking at those long cleats on his shoes. I was thinking what could happen if he snags on one of those weed patches. When he signs his contract his practice field might get a little better.
Why not?
TexansBull
Hall of Fame
I think certain rookie contracts are all guaranteed money. Depends on round drafted? I seem to remember that being discussed here at some point. Someone will correct me. 3…2…1…
They said it’s the first 2nd round fully guaranteed
KoolAid Sipper
AFCEVET
Don't think it's that big of a deal, in the previous 2 years (McConkey and Levis), the #2 pick in the 2nd rd has been guaranteed almost 92% of their contract.
Porky
Hall of Fame
I dunno...maybe because he hasn't proven **** yet?
TheRealJoker V2
All Pro
It’s 4 years 11 million. Second contract is probably going to equal that amount a year if he’s a JAG and be 4x that per year if he hits. Much ado about nothing.
How much do you think is the difference between last years pick at 2.34 and Higgins deal? Keon Coleman got $9.6 million guaranteed last year. Higgins gets $1.4 million more. No reason to get triggered. Cal can afford it.
Sweech
Onside Kick Specialist
Yeah it’s more a sign of good faith towards the players than anything. The percentages and actual $s are so close.
Small price to pay to show you mean what you say.
TheRealJoker V2
All Pro
I heard James Palmer on Texans All Access compare Jayden Higgins to Drake London. LZ seems to agree judging by his draft profile writeup:
London:
Higgins:
London:
Higgins:
Texansballer74
The Marine
This was a quote from LZ's write up on Higgins.
Zierlein never elaborated on why Higgins would have a limited route tree. Jayden's route limitations aren't apparent to me.
One of the 30 unsigned 2nd rounders is Aireontae Ersery, selected at 2.48. I don't believe Caserio's intention was to shot the team in the foot over Ersery's contract negotiation. As @KoolAid Sipper and I have shown, the difference in guaranteed $$$ between the previous year's #34 pick and Higgins was around 8%. 2024 pick 2.48, Maason Smith of the Jags, received $5.7 million guaranteed of his $8 million deal. That's 71% of the deal.
Caserio could give Ersery the extra 8% that Higgins received in guaranteed $$$, and push his deal towards 80% guaranteed. That would still be a far distance from 100% guaranteed. People need to look at Higgins deal as a nice increase in guaranteed money percentage. Not an across the board paradigm shift in rookie deals.
TheRealJoker V2
All Pro
I think the “limited” route tree comp to start out is more deep routes. He is kind of stiff uncovering on short/intermediate routes compared to a guy like Egbuka year 1 which is what I mentioned predraft and why I had Egbuka over him as my WR1. Higgins has as high a ceiling as any WR in this draft, but like Nico it will take time to unlock.
They can get plenty of production out of him as a deep shot specialist and big body redzone threat until it all clicks for him. And judging by reports from minicamp and OTAs it may be already happening ahead of schedule.
Porky
Hall of Fame
My opinion is unchanged. Dont fully guarantee rookie contracts. Especially outside the first round but heck i dont like ANY fully guaranteed contracts. Period. Too many things can go wrong. You are paying for expected future performance. And for a rookie, its totally on spec. What an epically dumb move by tricky Nicky. Outbiiding himself sgain like paying Sting 30 mil, most of it guaranteed, when the highest guy is at 25 mil.
Rookies drafted in the 1st round have 4 years guaranteed, per the CBA, If the team picks up the 5th year option, that year of the contract is also guaranteed.
Here is a spreadsheet of the number of years all 2nd round picks have stayed with their teams from the 2017 to the 2022 draft classes.
Per overthecap.com
| YEAR | 4+ Years | 3+ Years | 2+ Years | 1+ Years |
| 2015 | 40.6% | 81.3% | 93.8% | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 37.5% | 71.9% | 93.8% | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 65.6% | 81.3% | 93.8% | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 68.8% | 78.1% | 93.8% | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 59.4% | 93.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 68.8% | 87.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 78.1% | 90.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 78.1% | 90.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Fully guaranteeing the 1st 2 years of the rookie 2nd round contracts is a no brainer. Year 3, 27 of the 160 players taken in the 2nd round did not return. That's a small %, not enough to be concerned with. By year 4, 61 of the 160 players were no longer with the team that drafted them. That's a larger % of 38%. So if we're being fair, NFL teams should fully guaranteed the first 3 seasons of 2nd round picks, and maybe 60% of their last year of the rookie contract. But are all 2nd round picks the same?
Let's look at the pick 2.34, that Caserio gave a fully guaranteed deal to. The last player selected at 2.34 who was released prior to his 4th year was Tennessee Titans WR Justin Hunter. Hunter was drafted in 2013 and released prior to the 2016 season. The previous occurrence was 2010 when the Panthers cut 2008 pick at 2.34 WR Devin Thomas.
So twice in 18 drafts, guaranteeing the 4th year of the contract of pick 2.34 would have backfired. The other 16 times, the GM looks smart. Gaining goodwill with the player, his agent, and future free agents. Look, anyone who reads my posts know s I will give Nick criticism when I feel he has deserved it. This was a smart move by Caserio.
TheRealJoker V2
All Pro
Good luck negotiating with players in the modern era with that mindset. The market has changed and teams are adapting. Unless you’re the Bengals and are ok with players holding out, the players have more leverage than they used to.
Like Nico health will be the key. I expect Higgins to be a difference maker as a rookie if he can remain healthy. The talent is there.
badboy
Hall of Fame
Rookie deals are different than the second contracts. Good productivity gets the new big bucks, often with only the past season being great.. see Nico. Negotiate early and agents like you.