Conclusion: If we stay at No. 1, we need to draft Bush. (I want VY, but that's not relevant). We need to establish an outstanding running game as the foundation of our team.
Premise and Assumptions
1. New Coaching staff knows what it's doing (if not, all bets are off).
2. We are TWO drafts away from accumulating enough talent to be relevant in the playoff picture.
3. Kubiak's plan is heavily impacted by the success of the 97 and 98 Broncos.
Analysis of the 97 and 98 Broncos
1. 97 and 98 Broncos were driven by flawless execution of the zone blocking scheme and Terrell Davis' relentless running.
2. They also featured: a mature John Elway that managed the game flawlessly and made plays when needed; an impossible matchup with Shannon Sharpe at TE; a legit No 1 WR with Rod Smith; a tough No. 2 in Ed McCaffrey
3. The defense was tough with Trevor Pryce, Romanowski, and a pair of rugged safeties. But the star power was in the offense, at least IMO.
Where are the Texans lacking from a pure talent perspective, and what should our plan be?
1. Our running game (setting aside special teams) was the best part of a lousy team.
2. O-Line: This is where we can most arguably be "coached up", and hopefully don't need a MASSIVE talent injection. Over the course of TWO YEARS, the OLine can be coached to play better and we can improve the talent level in a gradual, steady way. We don't need a big bang in the draft. Thus, I wouldn't spend the pick on Dbrick
2. Running game: Goal No 1 is to gake our running game to the next level, as fast as possible. DD is not durable or explosive enough to do that. If, if, our Oline can be improved as noted above, we still need more at running back. Personally, I think a Lendale White with a 10-15 pick is a better value than Bush, but Bush would a valuable weapon. If Bush and Davis split carries for 30-35 carries/game, there's a strong likelihood that we would have a top 5 to 10 running attack, just with a coached up line. With addiitonal talent on the line, we need to be a top 5 running attack. That's why we will take Bush No. 1.
3. Even with Bush, we're way short on offensive playmakers. We have our TD (arguably), we have our Rod Smith. We're nowhere close to having a Sharpe or McCaffrey. Putzier is a gradual upgrade, but not the answer. We need an every down TE. I'd like to get a solid, but unspectacular No. 2 WR. I'd like to see us take BPA at TE, OLine or WR with the 2nd rnd and 3rd rnd picks. The talent shortfall really highlights the need for us to hit on each of our first 4 picks.
4. As for Mario Williams at No 1, I think he could make a big immediate impact, but we have "potential" in Peek, Babin and Weaver (and maybe TJ and Robaire) for a pass rush in a 4-3. We don't have such "potential" for a dominant running game with our current roster. Nor do we have such potential at TE, WR2, CB or MLB, at least not IMO. This year, we could address MLB and CB with one of our 3rd round picks and in day 2. NEXT YEAR, we will know whether Peek, Babin and TJ can play in a 4-3. We can then address the Defense accordingly. As good as a prospect Williams is, it doesn't make sense to take him now.
5. As for Vince Young, I really wish we could take him and would be happy if we did. But we need to look at Carr this way. He was "on track" after year 3. He is far from blameless for year 4, but he is pretty much the same guy that we had at the end of year 3. He's another guy that I think can be "coached up". He's not a dynamic leader or playmaker, but I think he could be developed into a competent QB that can manage a game and make the occasional play.
There are a huge number of variables that will dictate our success in the future:
Can we coach up Carr and the O Line?
Will Bush live up to the hype?
Can Peek,Babin, TJ, Weaver play in a 4-3 and generate a pass rush?
Can we draft an every down TE?
Can we draft a CB opposite Dunta?
We have 2 drafts to answer these questions. This draft is best spent on addressing areas where we clearly have little or no "potential"/talent. It just so happens that Reggie Bush potentially fills one of the most important areas.
(ignore this entire post if Reggie bush does not run in the mid/low 4.3's.)
Premise and Assumptions
1. New Coaching staff knows what it's doing (if not, all bets are off).
2. We are TWO drafts away from accumulating enough talent to be relevant in the playoff picture.
3. Kubiak's plan is heavily impacted by the success of the 97 and 98 Broncos.
Analysis of the 97 and 98 Broncos
1. 97 and 98 Broncos were driven by flawless execution of the zone blocking scheme and Terrell Davis' relentless running.
2. They also featured: a mature John Elway that managed the game flawlessly and made plays when needed; an impossible matchup with Shannon Sharpe at TE; a legit No 1 WR with Rod Smith; a tough No. 2 in Ed McCaffrey
3. The defense was tough with Trevor Pryce, Romanowski, and a pair of rugged safeties. But the star power was in the offense, at least IMO.
Where are the Texans lacking from a pure talent perspective, and what should our plan be?
1. Our running game (setting aside special teams) was the best part of a lousy team.
2. O-Line: This is where we can most arguably be "coached up", and hopefully don't need a MASSIVE talent injection. Over the course of TWO YEARS, the OLine can be coached to play better and we can improve the talent level in a gradual, steady way. We don't need a big bang in the draft. Thus, I wouldn't spend the pick on Dbrick
2. Running game: Goal No 1 is to gake our running game to the next level, as fast as possible. DD is not durable or explosive enough to do that. If, if, our Oline can be improved as noted above, we still need more at running back. Personally, I think a Lendale White with a 10-15 pick is a better value than Bush, but Bush would a valuable weapon. If Bush and Davis split carries for 30-35 carries/game, there's a strong likelihood that we would have a top 5 to 10 running attack, just with a coached up line. With addiitonal talent on the line, we need to be a top 5 running attack. That's why we will take Bush No. 1.
3. Even with Bush, we're way short on offensive playmakers. We have our TD (arguably), we have our Rod Smith. We're nowhere close to having a Sharpe or McCaffrey. Putzier is a gradual upgrade, but not the answer. We need an every down TE. I'd like to get a solid, but unspectacular No. 2 WR. I'd like to see us take BPA at TE, OLine or WR with the 2nd rnd and 3rd rnd picks. The talent shortfall really highlights the need for us to hit on each of our first 4 picks.
4. As for Mario Williams at No 1, I think he could make a big immediate impact, but we have "potential" in Peek, Babin and Weaver (and maybe TJ and Robaire) for a pass rush in a 4-3. We don't have such "potential" for a dominant running game with our current roster. Nor do we have such potential at TE, WR2, CB or MLB, at least not IMO. This year, we could address MLB and CB with one of our 3rd round picks and in day 2. NEXT YEAR, we will know whether Peek, Babin and TJ can play in a 4-3. We can then address the Defense accordingly. As good as a prospect Williams is, it doesn't make sense to take him now.
5. As for Vince Young, I really wish we could take him and would be happy if we did. But we need to look at Carr this way. He was "on track" after year 3. He is far from blameless for year 4, but he is pretty much the same guy that we had at the end of year 3. He's another guy that I think can be "coached up". He's not a dynamic leader or playmaker, but I think he could be developed into a competent QB that can manage a game and make the occasional play.
There are a huge number of variables that will dictate our success in the future:
Can we coach up Carr and the O Line?
Will Bush live up to the hype?
Can Peek,Babin, TJ, Weaver play in a 4-3 and generate a pass rush?
Can we draft an every down TE?
Can we draft a CB opposite Dunta?
We have 2 drafts to answer these questions. This draft is best spent on addressing areas where we clearly have little or no "potential"/talent. It just so happens that Reggie Bush potentially fills one of the most important areas.
(ignore this entire post if Reggie bush does not run in the mid/low 4.3's.)
