I don't think the Texans will trade David Carr. I don't want the Texans to trade David Carr. But, that's beside the point. It would be stooopid for the Texans to trade David Carr. Let me explain.
In order to trade David Carr, the Texans must first pickup the option on his contract by paying David either an $8 million or a $5.5 million bonus. As explained to me by Keith Weiland of houstonprofootball.com, part of Carr's bonus can be spread over the past 2005 season as the Texans had cap room from last season available. If the $8 mil bonus were picked up, Carr would be under contract for 3 seasons. But the bonus can be spread out over 4, or $2 million/season.
Now the Texans could just choose the 2-year option, which would pay Carr a bonus of $5.5 mil. That bonus would be spread out over 3 seasons, or $1.833 million/season. But, possible trade suitors would offer the Texans less for a player under contract for 2 seasons, as opposed to 3. So let's pose the question: Could the Texans get more value in trade for Carr than they could if the bonus money was used for free agents?
If Carr is traded this offseason, after the 3 year option is picked up, the unamoritized portion of the bonus ($6 million) becomes due against the cap. What could the Texans get for David. A 3rd round pick? A second round selection & a pot smoking holistic healer? A mid-1st rounder? Opinions vary. But would whatever David retrieve in trade be worth more than what the Texans could pick up with an extra $6 million in cap room? That's what the Texans would have free if the option is not picked up and David is allowed to become a free agent. This is just my opinion, but I think the club could be improved more with vet free agents than anything the Texans could get in trade for Carr.
It's been proposed by NFL.com, among others, that Carr could be franchised and then traded. Yeah, that's possible. The numbers for the QB franchise tag aren't out yet. But, it's reasonable for that number to shoot up to 8 figures, considering the big extensions that Manning, Vick, & Brady have picked up in the past year. So Carr's cap number for the Texans, or any team that traded for him, would likely be over $10 million for the '06 season. Of course the team that trades for David could give him a longer-term contract, but why would Carr agree to that? He'd already be getting a big payday in '06, and another shot at free agency in '07 when the salary cap may have gone away. No team trades for Carr if he comes with a $10 mil cap hit. Basically, Carr would have a no trade one-year contract for whatever the franchise tag number is. Franchising Carr is a no go.
So the Carr question is answered two fold. Give David the bonus and continue to build around him through the draft. Or cut #8 loose now, draft a QB, and hit the free agent market. Trading in Carr is not a viable option.