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"Texans will draft Ryan Matthews" - former NFL scout

Ole Miss Texan said:
I've been penciling him in for us as a later draft pick because he's never talked about and I have no idea where he may go. He looks plenty fast in these vids but the NFL moves so fast... guess its not like he's slow or anything though. Couldn't find a 40 on him but projections are probably in the 4.6 range. Bad news he broke his collarbone during the season and it wasn't fully healed by the senior bowl.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROrIY31e7yE
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I think he ran a 4.67 at the combine. I wouldn't mind drafting Scott in the 5th or 6th... If we can get Tate in third but probably second, and Scott in the fifth, then the Texans will be cooking with gas.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
I've been penciling him in for us as a later draft pick because he's never talked about and I have no idea where he may go. He looks plenty fast in these vids but the NFL moves so fast... guess its not like he's slow or anything though. Couldn't find a 40 on him but projections are probably in the 4.6 range. Bad news he broke his collarbone during the season and it wasn't fully healed by the senior bowl.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROrIY31e7yE
Click to expand...

I liked what I saw from him in season. He isn't really fast, but looked fast enough. Seems like a great fit.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
To me, it doesn't much matter how someone would grade out in another year. Because, this is THIS year not some other year. If you've got a big need at a position, you've got to take the best available WHEN they're going to be available. If your biggest need is RB and you've got a shot at the best RB for your system in the first round and you don't think he's going to drop to you in the second round, then (if you can't trade back) you take him in the first. It doesn't matter if he would have dropped to a later round pick 1, 2, or 3 years ago.
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I don't disagree with you but I like looking at it like that just as an exercise. Not that it has any saying as to how we should actually draft this year. Take needs out of it and rate the player on his skill level and how he would transition into the nfl on your team. When looking at a prospect that way, you can compare him to other RBs in other classes. A 90 player this year is the same as a 90 player last year. If anything, it says more about the skill level of the other players in the draft than themselves.

Not saying this is the case but let's pretend we see Ryan Mathews and Matt Forte as identical players. Pretend they have the same style, would fit your team the same way, etc etc. Now with that said, where would we consider drafting Matt Forte? Would he be a Top 20 player in THIS draft? Would he be a late 1st/early 2nd round guy? Now specifying it to this draft and having a guy in mind that's already in the nfl, then maybe we can see if we're more comfortable with it. I don't know... :)

This also doesn't specifically address where Forte, in this example, was drafted his year. Like Demeco Ryans.... steal at #33 and if the draft was over he'd go earlier. Some players outperfrom/underperform, some scout/teams may make a miss.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
I don't disagree with you but I like looking at it like that just as an exercise. Not that it has any saying as to how we should actually draft this year. Take needs out of it and rate the player on his skill level and how he would transition into the nfl on your team. When looking at a prospect that way, you can compare him to other RBs in other classes. A 90 player this year is the same as a 90 player last year. If anything, it says more about the skill level of the other players in the draft than themselves.

Not saying this is the case but let's pretend we see Ryan Mathews and Matt Forte as identical players. Pretend they have the same style, would fit your team the same way, etc etc. Now with that said, where would we consider drafting Matt Forte? Would he be a Top 20 player in THIS draft? Would he be a late 1st/early 2nd round guy? Now specifying it to this draft and having a guy in mind that's already in the nfl, then maybe we can see if we're more comfortable with it. I don't know... :)

This also doesn't specifically address where Forte, in this example, was drafted his year. Like Demeco Ryans.... steal at #33 and if the draft was over he'd go earlier. Some players outperfrom/underperform, some scout/teams may make a miss.
Click to expand...

Like you said, one big problem is separating out what you know about how players actually ended up performing and how you thought they were going to perform. And is the way they performed dependent on where they ended up? If you were to redraft a draft from a previous year, where would you rank the guys NOW.

All of the 'rankings' that are done on players are so subjective and fluid. There's frequently a pretty wide difference between how any two people rank players. So what you're doing is you're taking something that's subjective and layering it with stuff that's more subjective.

So, what you're going to get is probably whatever it is you want to end up with before you started. If you like Mathews, then you're going to grade him high compared to backs in previous drafts. If you don't like Mathews, he's going to slip.

So... it's all mental masturbation. Not that I'm against mental masturbation. Making comparisons across years is just not going to be mental masturbation I personally find intriguing or satisfying. But if it's good for you...
 
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