Should the Colts pull the upset Sunday, not only will they punch their ticket to the post-season, but they will also be able to set their sights on sneaking up and stealing the division from Houston. As improbable as that would seem, the math is simple. A Colts win would put them one game behind the Texans with two games to play. It also will very likely set up a winner take all game for the AFC South title in week 17, a scenario Houston wants to avoid. Houston wants to be playing for something in the season finale, but not for the division.
Even if the Texans win Sunday and wrap up the division, the week 17 game will still loom large. The Colts will either still be playing for a spot in the playoffs or to improve their seeding. That something that the Texans would be playing for is home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Assuming that the Patriots do not lose, which is very likely as they will be favored in their three remaining games, the Texans will not have the luxury of resting their starters. Instead, in order to finish with the top spot in the AFC, they will have to do something that they have never done in franchise history, win in Indianapolis.
Houston is 0-10 in the capital city of Indiana, 0-4 at Lucas Oil Stadium and 0-6 at the old RCA Dome. It has already been a season of firsts for the Texans in this their tenth anniversary season. It will only be fitting that for them to finish first in the conference for the first time, that they will have to beat the Colts on the road for the first time. The picture is clear for the Texans. Beat Indianapolis on Sunday, clinch the division for the second consecutive season. Win in Indianapolis in week 17, clinch home-field advantage and avoid having to return to New England or Denver in the playoffs. When and where the Texans will be playing in January will all come down to two December games vs the Colts. Good job schedule makers, good job.