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Texans Running Backs

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
For the purposes of consolidation I will include Fullbacks in this position breakdown.

To project Slowik’s offense I am looking at the 49ers and Dolphins. They both use the FB frequently.

The 49ers have the best FB in the NFL Kyle Jusczyk. Jusczyk played 50% of the snaps on offense last season. He has hovered around that number since arriving in SF and becoming a regular pro bowler at the position.

The Dolphins Alec Ingold played 40% of their snaps at FB last season.

Troy Hairston played 17% of the snaps for the Texans on offense last season and 55% of the snaps on ST. I not only expect Hairston to make the team, but I expect his snap count to jump to the 40-50% range on offense.

Andrew Beck is a versatile FB/H back. I expect him to beat out Brevin Jordan and find a role whether he is playing a traditional FB role in relief of Hairston or he’s at H back. In my roster prediction thread I have him listed as TE but I think he’s also backup FB since I project that position being a part of this offense for roughly 50% of the plays.

Now that we’ve got the FBs out of the way lets talk RBs.

I expect Pierce and Singletary to get around 35 touches combined per game. Depending on game script, maybe Singletary plays more and gets more checkdown catches in a negative pass heavy game script. Or the team is in a positive run heavy game script and Pierce is hammering the defense with Singletary swapping in relief for more runs. Either way I expect them both to average around 35 touches together per game.

I don’t expect them to contribute much to ST at all, I think between the two they’ll get around 90% of the offensive snaps.

The 3rd RB has to be a ST ace. Buddy Howell held onto a roster spot for three seasons because he played 60%+ of the ST snaps but less than 5% on offense. This RB is not necessarily a RB but Frank Ross tells them to be on ST. That could change if one of the top two backs get injured but they make the team and get activated on game day because they are reliable ST players.

Boone and Ogunbowale are competing for this role with Xazavien Valladay as the wildcard. I make Ogunbowale the favorite for this position because he has had a history of being more healthy compared to Boone. Ogunbowale is a reliable RB when called upon and rock solid on ST.

Valladay is a wild card because he’s been a productive runner in college, but he’s an unknown on ST.

The Texans also have Gerrid Doaks under contract who spent time on the practice squad last season but I expect him to just be a camp body.

If I am predicting snap counts for the backs:

RBs:

Pierce: 55%
Singletary: 40%
Ogunbowale: 5%


Hairston (FB): 50%

Last two seasons SF has been top 10 in rushing attempts per game with 29.7 (2022) and 29.3 (2021). The Dolphins surprisingly were at 22.8. But I wonder if that’s being more pass heavy due to strength of roster being WR with Hill/Waddle being the playmakers they want to feature. The Dolphins did jump up to 26.3 rushes per game their last three games when Tua was hurt.

I’d slot the Texans right around 30 rushes per game. To get to 35 touches for Pierce/Singletary lets say Pierce is averaging 18 runs and Singletary 12. Then they get 5 catches between the two.
 
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Texansphan

Football connoisseur
For the purposes of consolidation I will include Fullbacks in this position breakdown.

To project Slowik’s offense I am looking at the 49ers and Dolphins. They both use the FB frequently.

The 49ers have the best FB in the NFL Kyle Jusczyk. Jusczyk played 50% of the snaps on offense last season. He has hovered around that number since arriving in SF and becoming a regular pro bowler at the position.

The Dolphins Alec Ingold played 40% of their snaps at FB last season.

Troy Hairston played 17% of the snaps for the Texans on offense last season and 55% of the snaps on ST. I not only expect Hairston to make the team, but I expect his snap count to jump to the 40-50% range on offense.

Andrew Beck is a versatile FB/H back. I expect him to beat out Brevin Jordan and find a role whether he is playing a traditional FB role in relief of Hairston or he’s at H back. In my roster prediction thread I have him listed as TE but I think he’s also backup FB since I project that position being a part of this offense for roughly 50% of the plays.

Now that we’ve got the FBs out of the way lets talk RBs.

I expect Pierce and Singletary to get around 35 touches combined per game. Depending on game script, maybe Singletary plays more and gets more checkdown catches in a negative pass heavy game script. Or the team is in a positive run heavy game script and Pierce is hammering the defense with Singletary swapping in relief for more runs. Either way I expect them both to average around 35 touches together per game.

I don’t expect them to contribute much to ST at all, I think between the two they’ll get around 90% of the offensive snaps.

The 3rd RB has to be a ST ace. Buddy Howell held onto a roster spot for three seasons because he played 60%+ of the ST snaps but less than 5% on offense. This RB is not necessarily a RB but Frank Ross tells them to be on ST. That could change if one of the top two backs get injured but they make the team and get activated on game day because they are reliable ST players.

Boone and Ogunbowale are competing for this role with Xazavien Valladay as the wildcard. I make Ogunbowale the favorite for this position because he has had a history of being more healthy compared to Boone. Ogunbowale is a reliable RB when called upon and rock solid on ST.

Valladay is a wild card because he’s been a productive runner in college, but he’s an unknown on ST.

The Texans also have Gerrid Doaks under contract who spent time on the practice squad last season but I expect him to just be a camp body.

If I am predicting snap counts for the backs:

RBs:

Pierce: 55%
Singletary: 40%
Ogunbowale: 5%


Hairston (FB): 50%

Last two seasons SF has been top 10 in rushing attempts per game with 29.7 (2022) and 29.3 (2021). The Dolphins surprisingly were at 22.8. But I wonder if that’s being more pass heavy due to strength of roster being WR with Hill/Waddle being the playmakers they want to feature. The Dolphins did jump up to 26.3 rushes per game their last three games when Tua was hurt.

I’d slot the Texans right around 30 rushes per game. To get to 35 touches for Pierce/Singletary lets say Pierce is averaging 18 runs and Singletary 12. Then they get 5 catches between the two.
Nice work.
It comes down to CJ - if he is throwing the ball well and they are getting plenty of opportunities due to good Oline play and other blocking, they could go heavy on passing.
If the opposite is true, they may rely more on the ground game - moreso if it is effective.
 

Lucky

Ride, Captain, Ride!
Staff member
Andrew Beck is a versatile FB/H back. I expect him to beat out Brevin Jordan
I expect Beck to beat out Hairston for FB. We have to remember that Hairston has very little experience at FB, still, with only 17% of offensive snaps as a rookie. Beck has never had more than 23% of the snaps, himself. But he has been in a WCO for 4 seasons. I don't think Beck was brought in to be the backup.

As far as RB3, I think Mike Boone has the edge. Boone has been in a WCO for 5 seasons, and has been a ST player. But, I would not count out the eventual #3 RB found on the waiver wire.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
I expect Beck to beat out Hairston for FB. We have to remember that Hairston has very little experience at FB, still, with only 17% of offensive snaps as a rookie. Beck has never had more than 23% of the snaps, himself. But he has been in a WCO for 4 seasons. I don't think Beck was brought in to be the backup.

As far as RB3, I think Mike Boone has the edge. Boone has been in a WCO for 5 seasons, and has been a ST player. But, I would not count out the eventual #3 RB found on the waiver wire.
I dunno have we established that demecos texans will be operating their offense out of a WCO, because we learned that was
Not what Shanny was running in Frisco while he and his OC were there ?
 
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TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Nice work.
It comes down to CJ - if he is throwing the ball well and they are getting plenty of opportunities due to good Oline play and other blocking, they could go heavy on passing.
If the opposite is true, they may rely more on the ground game - moreso if it is effective.
You don’t want a rookie QB throwing the ball too much. And in a WCO in general you’re usually not gonna be pass heavy. Quality over quantity. Brock Purdy only had more than 35 attempts in two of his eight full games as a starter. Those games were 35 and 37 attempts. The rest were 30 and below.

Even Jimmy G this past season only went over 35 attempts in 3 of 10 games. The rest were 30 and below.

The Bucs led the league with 68.8 offensive plays per game.

San Francisco and Miami had 61.0 and 59.9 plays per game respectively. Texans were at 59.7 if you were wondering. It’s clearly not the total number of plays that matters, but the quality of the plays. San Francisco and Miami did a lot more with their opportunities than the Texans. And their later plays were likely of the clock killing variety because they had built a lead if I were to do some more digging.

All that to say, I don’t want Stroud dropping back to pass more than 30 times per game. When he does drop back, I want ideal conditions. Manageable down and distance with the defense forced to respect the play action so they can’t pin their ears back and attack the shiny new rookie QB. Just like Purdy last season.
 
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TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
I expect Beck to beat out Hairston for FB. We have to remember that Hairston has very little experience at FB, still, with only 17% of offensive snaps as a rookie. Beck has never had more than 23% of the snaps, himself. But he has been in a WCO for 4 seasons. I don't think Beck was brought in to be the backup.

As far as RB3, I think Mike Boone has the edge. Boone has been in a WCO for 5 seasons, and has been a ST player. But, I would not count out the eventual #3 RB found on the waiver wire.
You’re right, experience in a WCO does count. I look forward to seeing how the competition shakes out. They were the first two FA signings this offseason for what that’s worth.

Boone’s contract is virtually identical to Ogunbowale’s. Two years 3.1 million vs two years 3 million. They are in direct competition.
 

Texansphan

Football connoisseur
You don’t want a rookie QB throwing the ball too much. And in a WCO in general you’re usually not gonna be pass heavy. Quality over quantity. Brock Purdy only had more than 35 attempts in two of his eight full games as a starter. Those games were 35 and 37 attempts. The rest were 30 and below.

Even Jimmy G this past season only went over 35 attempts in 3 of 10 games. The rest were 30 and below.

The Bucs led the league with 68.8 offensive plays per game.

San Francisco and Miami had 61.0 and 59.9 plays per game respectively. Texans were at 59.7 if you were wondering. It’s clearly not the total number of plays that matters, but the quality of the plays. San Francisco and Miami did a lot more with their opportunities than the Texans. And their later plays were likely of the clock killing variety because they had built a lead if I were to do some more digging.

All that to say, I don’t want Stroud dropping back to pass more than 30 times per game. When he does drop back, I want ideal conditions. Manageable down and distance with the defense forced to respect the play action so they can’t pin their ears back and attack the shiny new rookie QB. Just like Purdy last season.
DR saw how Shanny eased Purdy into it so he will have some idea plus the WCO is QB friendly so if Stroud can't make it here, he's probably only going to be a backup.
No excuses.
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
The 49ers have been pretty consistent on rushing attempts for a season when things are going well. They have a consistent QB and they are a playoff team. Looking at the Lil Shanny era.

2022: 13-4 record. 504 attempts (conference championship appearance).

2021: 10-7 record. 499 attempts (conference championship appearance).

2020: 6-10 record. 437 attempts (Jimmy G hurt playing only 6 games and Mullens/Beathard QBs)

2019: 13-3 record. 498 attempts (Super Bowl appearance).

2018: 4-12 record. 423 attempts (Jimmy G 3 games played and Mullens/Beathard QBs).

2017: 6-10 record. 408 attempts (Jimmy G trade at deadline. Beathard/Hoyer starting).

It looks like 500 attempts is the sweet spot for an efficient, well-run offense under the Lil Shanny tree. That averages out to 29.41 attempts per game in a 17 game season.
 

Toro Bravo

Rookie
I expect Beck to beat out Hairston for FB. We have to remember that Hairston has very little experience at FB, still, with only 17% of offensive snaps as a rookie. Beck has never had more than 23% of the snaps, himself. But he has been in a WCO for 4 seasons. I don't think Beck was brought in to be the backup.

As far as RB3, I think Mike Boone has the edge. Boone has been in a WCO for 5 seasons, and has been a ST player. But, I would not count out the eventual #3 RB found on the waiver wire.
I agree. Beck will be the FB and 4th TE and play ST. The wild card is Valladay, whom I am looking forward to seeing in the open field.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I like Seth Payne’s “Kubshanistan Offense”.
I don't think we're going to see the ZBS stretch as much as Kubiak liked to run. Maybe because of the new chop blocking rules, I don't know. But they (SF) are heavy on play action & middle zone. They're not about moving the pocket. They're not about finesse. I'll have to watch more games, but I don't think they're about blowing the top off either. More suck you in then gangham style you on the back end.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
I feel like some people are going to be disappointed that this offense isn't going to look like the Big Shanny influenced, Kubiak led 2011-12 Texans.
Our offense will have new players, most especially at the QB position. They will be implementing an offense by a rookie OC and rookie HC. If one doesn't expect some growing pains with this situation, then there will be unrealistic expectations.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Our offense will have new players, most especially at the QB position. They will be implementing an offense by a rookie OC and rookie HC. If one doesn't expect some growing pains with this situation, then there will be unrealistic expectations.
No excuses
 
Moved this convo from the 53-man roster prediction topic to this RB thread
Boone beats out O.
TBH, I prefer the 3rd string RB to be a young player with upside (the rookie Xazavian Valladay). Also, I believe he has some returner experience in college which would add value to special teams.
Practice squad Valladay if you don't think he's going to beat out Pierce or Singletary.
Same could be said of why keep Boone or Ogunbowale if they aren't going to beat out Pierce or Singletary. All things being equal, I'd rather someone potentially poaching Boone or Ogunbowale than Valladay. Boone nor Ogunbowale have never been more than a RB3 (expendable) and all can contribute to special teams so what is the deciding factor?
 

JB

Innocent Bystander
Contributor's Club
Moved this convo from the 53-man roster prediction topic to this RB thread





Same could be said of why keep Boone or Ogunbowale if they aren't going to beat out Pierce or Singletary. All things being equal, I'd rather someone potentially poaching Boone or Ogunbowale than Valladay. Boone nor Ogunbowale have never been more than a RB3 (expendable) and all can contribute to special teams so what is the deciding factor?
If Valladay was all that, why wasn't he drafted? The others have proven they can handle the NFL, can he?
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Moved this convo from the 53-man roster prediction topic to this RB thread





Same could be said of why keep Boone or Ogunbowale if they aren't going to beat out Pierce or Singletary. All things being equal, I'd rather someone potentially poaching Boone or Ogunbowale than Valladay. Boone nor Ogunbowale have never been more than a RB3 (expendable) and all can contribute to special teams so what is the deciding factor?
How do you know Valladay can contribute to ST? Different role than RB. RB3 is basically ST ace not a RB. If you can’t play ST you aren’t suiting up on game day if you’re RB3.
 
If Valladay was all that, why wasn't he drafted? The others have proven they can handle the NFL, can he?
We're talking about a RB3, that's typically a low round draft pick, an UDFA or someone who will never be a steady backup. Boone and O have done nothing worthy of guaranteeing them a spot over a late round rookie.

How do you know Valladay can contribute to ST? Different role than RB. RB3 is basically ST ace not a RB. If you can’t play ST you aren’t suiting up on game day if you’re RB3.
I mentioned he had returner experience in college so he could contribute to ST. And a ST ace is typically something developed once in the NFL because the player won't see the field at their natural position. I'm just saying give me the younger guy that could have some sort of potential.
 
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thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
We're talking about a RB3, that's typically a low round draft pick, an UDFA or someone who will never be s steady backup. Boone and O have done nothing worthy of guaranteeing them a spot over a late round rookie.
RB3 should be interpreted as ST player. The ST coach has more say on who RB3 is than the RB coach.
 

JB

Innocent Bystander
Contributor's Club
We're talking about a RB3, that's typically a low round draft pick, an UDFA or someone who will never be a steady backup. Boone and O have done nothing worthy of guaranteeing them a spot over a late round rookie.


I mentioned he had returner experience in college so he could contribute to ST. And a ST ace is typically something developed once in the NFL because the player won't see the field at their natural position. I'm just saying give me the younger guy that could have some sort of potential.
If he wins the job fine, if not you can develop him on the PS for a year or so
 

JB

Innocent Bystander
Contributor's Club
Arian Foster and Priest Holmes would like to have a word with you.

Of course, Foster started his first season on the practice squad.
I wasn't trying to say don't give him a shot, but don't guarantee him a spot on the roster based on potential
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Arian Foster and Priest Holmes would like to have a word with you.

Of course, Foster started his first season on the practice squad.
Because he wasn't all that. He said so. His Tennessee coach said so. Something clicked, he got off his bumper, batabing, bataboom, BO'bs your uncle.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
I don't think we're going to see the ZBS stretch as much as Kubiak liked to run. Maybe because of the new chop blocking rules, I don't know. But they (SF) are heavy on play action & middle zone. They're not about moving the pocket. They're not about finesse. I'll have to watch more games, but I don't think they're about blowing the top off either. More suck you in then gangham style you on the back end.
Everyone still runs that outside/inside stretch zone they just can't chop block which is a good thing.
 

Texansphan

Football connoisseur
I feel like some people are going to be disappointed that this offense isn't going to look like the Big Shanny influenced, Kubiak led 2011-12 Texans.
True, but if our coaching staff is smart, they will make it look like whatever it takes to make it succeed.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
I don't think anybody is going to be disappointed that the offense is different than the last 3 years. It may not be Big Shanny of Kubiak offense, but it won't be BOB offense either, thank God.
I don’t really care anymore. You’ve dubbed it the BigShanny Offense. That’s what I’m going to call it anyway
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I dunno have we established that demecos texans will be operating their offense out of a WCO, because we learned that was
Not what Shanny was running in Frisco while he and his OC were there ?
Offenses evolve all the time.

Even Kubiak's offense evolved.
2012-13 was different from the time Shanahan was here.

Gibbs tweaked the blocking scheme every year, and then when he left, the Texans compliment it with a gap scheme.

And when Kubiak had Peyton, he changed things up some more to fit his QB.

But many of the core concepts are still there; just different dressings here and there.

And HC/OC keep adding things/concepts.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
Everyone still runs that outside/inside stretch zone they just can't chop block which is a good thing.
One thing I saw the Niners do that I had never seen under Kubiak is a tossed run inside zone.

The QB would toss the ball to the RB instead of handing the ball off on the inside zone run.
Just occasionally though.

And it's a total different play from Andy Reid / Patrick Mahomes' shovel pass.
 

OptimisticTexan

2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
If Valladay was all that, why wasn't he drafted? The others have proven they can handle the NFL, can he?
I'm not comparing him to Foster at this juncture b/c we don't have any idea as to what he can do......but how many drafted RB's outperformed Foster from 2009 to 2010?

CAREER STATS- Wyoming / Arizona State 2018-2022:

ATT: 841 / YDS: 4,466 / AVG: 5.3 / TD: 35 /// REC: 88 / YDS: 873 / AVG: 9.3 / TDS: 4 /// T PLS: 929 / T FUMBLES: 7 / T YDS: 5,339 / AVG: 5.7 / T TDS: 39

PRO DAY RESULTS

40: 4.46 / VERT: 40.0" / BROAD: 123" / BP: 22 / SHUTTLE: 4.32 / 3 CONE: 7.00

Actually there was no good reason for a team not to draft him. He had a very respectable CFB career and performed more than adequately at his Pro Day. He definitely looks the part of an NFL RB at 6-0 and 200 pounds.

1684142008160.png

 
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JB

Innocent Bystander
Contributor's Club
I'm not comparing him to Foster at this juncture b/c we don't have any idea as to what he can do......but how many drafted RB's outperformed Foster from 2009 to 2010?

CAREER STATS- Wyoming / Arizona State 2018-2022:

ATT: 841 / YDS: 4,466 / AVG: 5.3 / TD: 35 /// REC: 88 / YDS: 873 / AVG: 9.3 / 4 /// T PLS: 929 / T FUMBLES: 7 / T YDS: 5,339 / AVG: 5.7 / T TD: 39

PRO DAY RESULTS

40: 4.46 / VERT: 40.0" / BROAD: 123" / BP: 22 / SHUTTLE: 4.32 / 3 CONE: 7.00

Actually there was no good reason for a team not to draft him. He had a very respectable CFB career and performed more than adequately at his Pro Day. He definitely looks the part of an NFL RB at 6-0 and 200 pounds.

View attachment 12119

How many out peformed Valladay?

So you're going to guarantee him a spot on the roster regardless?
 

OptimisticTexan

2024 / Rebuilding Block 4 After Playoffs / Texans
How many out peformed Valladay?

So you're going to guarantee him a spot on the roster regardless?
JB, nobody should be guaranteed anything on the Texans. They've done squat since the 2019 season. Everyone on this roster should be told that they will be earning their spot and playing time on the 2023 roster. Those that have earned it....make the 53 man roster and the PS players will scrap it out each week to be the 2 add-on players.
 

sandman

Brexit Advisor
I'm not comparing him to Foster at this juncture b/c we don't have any idea as to what he can do......but how many drafted RB's outperformed Foster from 2009 to 2010?

CAREER STATS- Wyoming / Arizona State 2018-2022:

ATT: 841 / YDS: 4,466 / AVG: 5.3 / TD: 35 /// REC: 88 / YDS: 873 / AVG: 9.3 / TDS: 4 /// T PLS: 929 / T FUMBLES: 7 / T YDS: 5,339 / AVG: 5.7 / T TDS: 39

PRO DAY RESULTS

40: 4.46 / VERT: 40.0" / BROAD: 123" / BP: 22 / SHUTTLE: 4.32 / 3 CONE: 7.00

Actually there was no good reason for a team not to draft him. He had a very respectable CFB career and performed more than adequately at his Pro Day. He definitely looks the part of an NFL RB at 6-0 and 200 pounds.

View attachment 12119

Probably a combination of devalued position in today's offenses and WYO being in the Mountain West.

The wife is from WYO. Every time we go up there and pass through Laramie I stop at the campus store. Only jersey they ever have is #17 for obvious reasons. If this kid works out, wouldn't mind repping the state with a #6.
 

JB

Innocent Bystander
Contributor's Club
JB, nobody should be guaranteed anything on the Texans. They've done squat since the 2019 season. Everyone on this roster should be told that they will be earning their spot and playing time on the 2023 roster. Those that have earned it....make the 53 man roster and the PS players will scrap it out each week to be the 2 add-on players.
But that was the conversation that you jumped into the middle of. I agree with you.
 

Bayouboy1965

Practice Squad
The 49ers have been pretty consistent on rushing attempts for a season when things are going well. They have a consistent QB and they are a playoff team. Looking at the Lil Shanny era.

2022: 13-4 record. 504 attempts (conference championship appearance).

2021: 10-7 record. 499 attempts (conference championship appearance).

2020: 6-10 record. 437 attempts (Jimmy G hurt playing only 6 games and Mullens/Beathard QBs)

2019: 13-3 record. 498 attempts (Super Bowl appearance).

2018: 4-12 record. 423 attempts (Jimmy G 3 games played and Mullens/Beathard QBs).

2017: 6-10 record. 408 attempts (Jimmy G trade at deadline. Beathard/Hoyer starting).

It looks like 500 attempts is the sweet spot for an efficient, well-run offense under the Lil Shanny tree. That averages out to 29.41 attempts per game in a 17 game season.
good job!!
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
I'm not comparing him to Foster at this juncture b/c we don't have any idea as to what he can do......but how many drafted RB's outperformed Foster from 2009 to 2010?

CAREER STATS- Wyoming / Arizona State 2018-2022:

ATT: 841 / YDS: 4,466 / AVG: 5.3 / TD: 35 /// REC: 88 / YDS: 873 / AVG: 9.3 / TDS: 4 /// T PLS: 929 / T FUMBLES: 7 / T YDS: 5,339 / AVG: 5.7 / T TDS: 39

PRO DAY RESULTS

40: 4.46 / VERT: 40.0" / BROAD: 123" / BP: 22 / SHUTTLE: 4.32 / 3 CONE: 7.00

Actually there was no good reason for a team not to draft him. He had a very respectable CFB career and performed more than adequately at his Pro Day. He definitely looks the part of an NFL RB at 6-0 and 200 pounds.

View attachment 12119

Look how many rbs the old denver offense had that produced who were either late rd picks or undrafted.
 

Toro Bravo

Rookie
Look how many rbs the old denver offense had that produced who were either late rd picks or undrafted.
The most successful one that comes to mind is Terrell Davis. Pick 196 (6th round), MVP, HOF. He was on the verge of not making the Broncos roster his rookie season until a spectacular tackle on special teams in a preseason game got him noticed - and the rest is history.
 


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