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Texans Playoff Picture

amazing80 said:
It might be. Just because we've never won there and losing is devastating. I would say top 3 game of importance all time for sure. I hope we don't lay an egg because you know we wil be prime time in the noon slot.
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One could argue that if the Texans win these next 3 games they would be in a better situation going into the playoffs than the 2011/2012 seasons. Red hot with a 5 game win streak.
 
thunderkyss said:
& that's not going to happen.

They needed to lose 3 out of 4, with Baltimore, Houston, Dallas, & Tennessee on deck. We've never won in Indy, but if we did, then they're one bad night in Dallas away from being second in the division.

Longshot, I know. But it started with losing to Cleveland. That didn't happen, so now there is no way they finish less than 10-6, because they're not losing to Tennessee. Especially with Tennessee losing to the Giants today, they're going to start planning ski trips & sabbaticals & things like that.
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I already considered winning the division much tougher than getting a wild card spot. I actually kind of preferred the Colts giving the Browns a loss. Now the Browns are behind us in the playoff standings.
 
TEXANRED said:
One could argue that if the Texans win these next 3 games they would be in a better situation going into the playoffs than the 2011/2012 seasons. Red hot with a 5 game win streak.
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This makes sense to me. On top of that, has anyone noticed how lousy the Texans have played at home. At this point they actually have more wins on the road. I'm thankful that KJ is healthy again for the game in Indy, but I'm even more thankful that JJ Watt will be healthy as well!:swatter:
 
msbbc833 said:
That Steelers game really hurts.
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Not really, IMO. Miami's scedule was easier after the Pittsburgh game. If Pittsburgh finishes 9-7, they will have a conference record of 8-4 or 7-5 and will be part of a three or four way tie with Houston... So, Houston could still end up winning that tiebreaker.

If Houston finishes 10-6, I'm not worried. We will make the playoffs.
 
Giant Tiger said:
Yeah, the Bengals have to collapse now. The Chargers have to lose a couple, too.
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Bengals need to win- take the division (beat Pitt in week 17). The Chargers are likely to go 1-3 with their nightmare schedule. Pittsburgh is at Atanta, vs. KC, vs. Cincy... that is no picnic.

Remember, the 2nd place and 3rd place teams in the AFC north are the ones we are competing against. Whomever finishes first, takes the division and leaves2 wildcard spots.
 
I don't like our chances in Indy, so I'm playing with the Playoff Machine to see how we can make playoffs w/ a loss to Indy (9-7 record).

All hope should not be lost!

In the playoff machine, I pre-selected winners based on ESPN's power rankings. I then changed the Texans to beat the Ravens of course. Then any of the following "upsets" would have to take place in order for Texans to make playoffs.

1. 49ers over Chargers in week 16 (in SF)
2. Browns over Ravens in week 17 (in BAL)

There's also the crazy scenario of the Bengals losing it's final three games against the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers. Chiefs losing to the Steelers, but beating the Chargers.

It appears Jim Harbaugh has lost his team... and I don't like the Browns beating the Ravens in Baltimore. A loss in Indy in no way means our season is over, but obviously it doesn't look very good.
 
i was playing around with the playoff machine tonight. I don't think there is any scenario where we do not get in with 10 wins now. Maybe I am forgetting a team or not seeing it correctly but not enough teams can get 11 wins to knock us out. 10 wins and we are a lock.
 
amazing80 said:
i was playing around with the playoff machine tonight. I don't think there is any scenario where we do not get in with 10 wins now. Maybe I am forgetting a team or not seeing it correctly but not enough teams can get 11 wins to knock us out. 10 wins and we are a lock.
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The only possible way for us to not make it is. Chargers get to 11 wins. Bengals and Pittsburgh win out until week 17 and the the steelers win. If all that happens we cannot make it with 10 wins. That's the only possible scenario.
 
amazing80 said:
i was playing around with the playoff machine tonight. I don't think there is any scenario where we do not get in with 10 wins now. Maybe I am forgetting a team or not seeing it correctly but not enough teams can get 11 wins to knock us out. 10 wins and we are a lock.
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Yup. We go 10-6, it's going to be pretty tough for us not to make it in.

We do need the Chargers to lose tonight, though. C'mon Pats!
 
We haven't managed more than 2 wins in a row this season and sadly I see that trend continuing. Too much has to go right to get in. I'm praying to the flying spaghetti monster for it to happen though...
 
Simplified summary of the Texans wildcard hopes:

If the Texans finish 10-6 (winning final 3), the Texans are in the playoffs unless San Diego goes 3-0 against (Denver, SF, and KC) and both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati win their week 15 and 16 games, before facing off head to head in week 17.

If the Texans finish 9-7, they need the following:

(assuming Cincy wins the AFC North)

2 of the three 8-5 teams need to lose 2 of their final 3 games (or all three)
Baltimore (Jack, @Hou, Clev)
Pittsburgh (@Atl, KC, Cincy)
San Diego (Den, @SF, @KC)

and

all 4 of these 7-6 teams need to lose at least 1 of their final 3:
KC (Oak, @Pitt, SD)
Buffalo (GB, @Oak,@ NE)
Miami (@NE, Minn, NYJ)
Cleveland (Cincy, @Car,@ Balt)


Because there will be multiple 9-7 teams (almost assuredly) and the Texans will finish with 8 conference wins if they finish 9-7, the Texans win almost any tiebreaker at 9-7... So, what they would need is no more than one non-division winner to finish with less than 7 losses and they are very likely to be in.
 
JCTexan said:
I'm not sure we can assume that just yet. Their remaining schedule looks brutal. They have @Cleveland, Denver & @Pittsburgh left.
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corytx8 said:
The question remains, what happens when Pitt wins the north......
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There are two wild card spots. One of them will go to either Pittsburgh or Cincinnati.

If we win out we most likely get the other.

If we're 9-7 & all the other teams finish 9-7 or worse, we get the other

At 9-7 we should still have the best conf record of the remaining teams. The danger is upsets. If any of the AFC teams in the hunt wins a game they shouldn't... Like the Chargers winning out or finishing 10-6, then we don't have a shot if we finish 9-7.

It is also possible, not likely but possible for San Diego to finish 11-5. Then they are the 5 seed, Pittsburgh/Cincinnati is the 6th seed, & we're the odd man out, even at 10-6.


Link
 
BullNation4Life said:
Too bad the Texans face a 12 year road block ahead of them on their road to the playoffs...

Otherwise they might have had a shot...
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http://www.houstontexans.com/tv-med...e-speech/48d7c839-bfe4-446b-afa3-53d5fee5789c

But we never had BOB.:swatter:
EKxvL23.png
 
corytx8 said:
The question remains, what happens when Pitt wins the north......
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Well, in that case, Cincy would get one wildcard spot unless they lost all three of their games remaining... and then the Texans (at 9-7) would need SD and Baltimore to lose 2 of their final three games... and KC, Buffalo, Miami, and Cleveland would all need to loose at least 1 of their final three games.
 
Lets just win out and everything will take care of its self, we have a great chance here to make the play offs and make some noise. If anything atleast these last 3 games will be exciting.
 
dalemurphy said:
Simplified summary of the Texans wildcard hopes:

If the Texans finish 10-6 (winning final 3), the Texans are in the playoffs unless San Diego goes 3-0 against (Denver, SF, and KC) and both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati win their week 15 and 16 games, before facing off head to head in week 17.

If the Texans finish 9-7, they need the following:

(assuming Cincy wins the AFC North)

2 of the three 8-5 teams need to lose 2 of their final 3 games (or all three)
Baltimore (Jack, @Hou, Clev)
Pittsburgh (@Atl, KC, Cincy)
San Diego (Den, @SF, @KC)

and

all 4 of these 7-6 teams need to lose at least 1 of their final 3:
KC (Oak, @Pitt, SD)
Buffalo (GB, @Oak,@ NE)
Miami (@NE, Minn, NYJ)
Cleveland (Cincy, @Car,@ Balt)


Because there will be multiple 9-7 teams (almost assuredly) and the Texans will finish with 8 conference wins if they finish 9-7, the Texans win almost any tiebreaker at 9-7... So, what they would need is no more than one non-division winner to finish with less than 7 losses and they are very likely to be in.
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I don't assume Cincy will win the North. In fact I think they will find it difficult. They play at Cleveland, host Denver, and then at Pittsburgh. They could lose out and miss the playoffs. Even if we lose to Indy we have a good shot at the playoffs if Cincy loses out. Pittsburgh wins the division since Baltimore will have that week 16 loss at Houston. The Ravens still pick up the 5th seed and San Diego loses 2 of the final 3 games to finish behind us.

If it's possible I can see myself hating the Titans even more if we beat Indy, Baltimore, and then Jacksonville and the Titans roll over for the Colts. They could be playing for the 1st pick so it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility.

Overall, I still think we have a shot and being alive in December where we want to be.

edit: I guess I should read through all posts before joining in. This has already been discussed.
 
Let's see if we can see the trend.

Wins:
Redskins - RGIII, who was later benched
Raiders - Carr, rookie QB
Bills - Manuel - Benched afterwards
Titans - Mettenberger, rookie
Browns - Hoyer, soon to be benched
Titans - Mettenberger, rookie
Jaguars - Bortles, rookie

Losses:
Giants - Eli Manning
Cowboys - Romo
Colts - Luck
Steelers - Roethlisberger
Eagles - Foles/Sanchez
Bengals - Dalton

The only way we beat the Colts is if Foster carries this offense for 200+ and a few TDs. Watt would have to get to Luck almost every play because we're not going to be able to cover Hilton and Co.
 
HOU-TEX said:
Let's see if we can see the trend.

Wins:
Redskins - RGIII, who was later benched
Raiders - Carr, rookie QB
Bills - Manuel - Benched afterwards
Titans - Mettenberger, rookie
Browns - Hoyer, soon to be benched
Titans - Mettenberger, rookie
Jaguars - Bortles, rookie

Losses:
Giants - Eli Manning
Cowboys - Romo
Colts - Luck
Steelers - Roethlisberger
Eagles - Foles/Sanchez
Bengals - Dalton

The only way we beat the Colts is if Foster carries this offense for 200+ and a few TDs. Watt would have to get to Luck almost every play because we're not going to be able to cover Hilton and Co.
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This list isn't very pleasant to look at. The Texans definitely need to break the trend closing out the season.
 
Lucky said:
If the Texans win out, they'll get a wildcard. Sure there are scenarios where that doesn't happen. But they're unlikely.
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Unfortunately, the Texans have to do something they have not done all season: beat a good QB.

And then do it again the next week.

I do like that we have playoff talk in December, even if it's long shot stuff and different scenarios.

That said, I'm not unhappy if this team finishes 8-8 after last season. Obviously hope it turns out much better, though.
 
thunderkyss said:
He had a passer rating of 59.8 yesterday.
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It was his 12th game winning drive in three seasons. I doubt he cares about QBR when he's posting a W.

Contrast that to Ryan Fitzpatrick's 9 game winning drives in his entire ten year career.
 
Double Barrel said:
It was his 12th game winning drive in three seasons. I doubt he cares about QBR when he's posting a W.

Contrast that to Ryan Fitzpatrick's 9 game winning drives in his entire ten year career.
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That's the thing though. Beating Luck has nothing to do with actually beating Luck. The best way to beat him is to keep him off the field. Cleveland's D did a hell of a job stifling Luck but Cleveland's offense kept punting/turning over the ball and putting their D in tough situations. Eventually Hoyer's mediocrity caught up and because the Cleveland O couldn't string together a decent drive near the end of the game, Luck got the ball in a clutch time situation.

IMO if we can keep the ball out of Luck's hands in the 4th quarter we can win. That means stringing together positive plays and finishing drives. That's the key to beating Luck.
 
htownfan32 said:
That's the thing though. Beating Luck has nothing to do with actually beating Luck. The best way to beat him is to keep him off the field. Cleveland's D did a hell of a job stifling Luck but Cleveland's offense kept punting/turning over the ball and putting their D in tough situations. Eventually Hoyer's mediocrity caught up and because the Cleveland O couldn't string together a decent drive near the end of the game, Luck got the ball in a clutch time situation.

IMO if we can keep the ball out of Luck's hands in the 4th quarter we can win. That means stringing together positive plays and finishing drives. That's the key to beating Luck.
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Yep, it's the same formula the Texans used to beat the Colts the first time with David Carr (2006).

Keep the ball out of Manning's hands with a ball control running game and own the time of possession.
 
Double Barrel said:
It was his 12th game winning drive in three seasons. I doubt he cares about QBR when he's posting a W.

Contrast that to Ryan Fitzpatrick's 9 game winning drives in his entire ten year career.
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Plus he's played in more playoff games than Fitzpatrick.

:mariopalm:
 
I was messing around with ESPN's playoff machine, and interestingly enough, if we had to lose one more game this season, the most penalizing for our playoff hopes would be to lose the Baltimore game. At least that was based off of what I did.
 
htownfan32 said:
That's the thing though. Beating Luck has nothing to do with actually beating Luck. The best way to beat him is to keep him off the field. Cleveland's D did a hell of a job stifling Luck but Cleveland's offense kept punting/turning over the ball and putting their D in tough situations. Eventually Hoyer's mediocrity caught up and because the Cleveland O couldn't string together a decent drive near the end of the game, Luck got the ball in a clutch time situation.

IMO if we can keep the ball out of Luck's hands in the 4th quarter we can win. That means stringing together positive plays and finishing drives. That's the key to beating Luck.
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The best way to beat luck has have JJ knock all the refs out of the game, then we have a better chance.
 
A heavy dose of Arian Foster (30+ touches) and playing physical against T.Y. Hilton at the line of scrimmage. We need to jam him hard inside five yards and throw off his routes. J.J. Watt doing his thing as always. I'd almost dare Fleener and an aging Wayne to beat us if necessary. We have to slow down the Colts offense somehow, forcing turnovers as well. If we can keep the ball out of their hands that will help. We can't afford to fall behind early like last time. It was 24-0 Colts after the first quarter but I felt the Texans played a solid hard-fought three quarters after that. The most important thing is to hit Andrew Luck hard and often. If we can rattle him and beat him up physically he is not going to have a big game. If he does dare to run, which he tends to do quite often, we have to put a big bop on him before he slides.
 
EllisUnit said:
The best way to beat luck has have JJ knock all the refs out of the game, then we have a better chance.
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I still remember that bogus "roughing the passer" penalty they called on Watt back during that 2011 game at Indianapolis. Looking back it was critical in a 19-16 loss. That was our best chance to win at Indy. They had a garbage QB Orlovsky playing. We're due to win this game on Sunday. No way we can fall to 0-13 all time at Indianapolis. The law of average is on our side among other things. Also I feel the Colts Defense is a bit soft and missing some key players. We should be able to do some things offensively against them. I just don't want to get into a shootout with them. We need to take a two or three-score lead early like they did to us in Houston. Turn the tables around.
 
Vance87 said:
I was messing around with ESPN's playoff machine, and interestingly enough, if we had to lose one more game this season, the most penalizing for our playoff hopes would be to lose the Baltimore game. At least that was based off of what I did.
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Yeah, at this point, the division is pretty much out of our reach, unless the Colts lose their last three games, including to us and the Titans, so it only makes sense that a loss to another team we're competing with for a wild card spot is going to be more costly.
 
paycheck71 said:
Yeah, at this point, the division is pretty much out of our reach, unless the Colts lose their last three games, including to us and the Titans, so it only makes sense that a loss to another team we're competing with for a wild card spot is going to be more costly.
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If we win out & the Colts lose to us & the Titans, we win the division.


Not likely to happen, but if they lose to us & the Titans, our division record is better with only one loss.
 
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