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Texans Playoff Picture

Double Barrel said:
This is not the thread for pragmatism, man. :koolaid:
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I had predicted 10-6 at the start of the season based on schedule/new coaching, so I had my share of the kool-aid. However, after seeing how bad Fitzpatrick actually was in this offense (the other Fitzpatrick, not the one from last week) I thought 9-7. Then Mallett led to a victory against the Browns, and I was on that 10-6 kool-aid again. After the bad, bad loss to the Bengals I can't drink any more.

How about this - I'll go with 9-7 now. I don't know if that gives them a snowball's chance in hell at the playoffs other than mathematically, but that's all I can do.

Rah-Rah!
 
dream_team said:
You think we can still get. In with a 9-7 record? Can you please explain?
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Go play with the playoff machine... the teams ahead of us are going to beat each other up. It's not that far fetched for 3 or more teams in the AFC to finish at 9-7, in which case we own the tie breakers.
 
dream_team said:
You think we can still get. In with a 9-7 record? Can you please explain?
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Have you played around with the Playoff Machine? I've gone through and tried to pick games in a realistic manner, a way that could conceivably go down, and even with a 9-7 record, there are a lot of scenarios where we get in with either a 6 or a 5 seed.

One of those was really interesting because we ended up with a 5 seed and our wildcard game was against the Bengals who were the 4 seed. If that happens, the Bengals fans would probably be saying "Oh, no. Not THOSE GUYS again!?"

Granted, there are a ton of ways where we don't get in but like I said above. the teams that are currently ahead of us have some brutal schedules and could knock each other out of contention and if we just drop the game against the Colts, we're going to win a lot of tie-breakers against some of the other teams because of our conference record (thank you, Titans and Jaguars).
 
I have messed with the playoff machine and have come to 3 conclusions for the league:

1) Green Bay will be a #1 seed in the NFC
2) Broncos and Pats will be 1 & 2 in the AFC. Mix or match
3) the Texans pretty much HAVE TO WIN in Indy. PERIOD
 
DX-TEX said:
I have messed with the playoff machine and have come to 3 conclusions for the league:

1) Green Bay will be a #1 seed in the NFC
2) Broncos and Pats will be 1 & 2 in the AFC. Mix or match
3) the Texans pretty much HAVE TO WIN in Indy. PERIOD
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Not true as long as they beat the Ravens
 
DX-TEX said:
3) the Texans pretty much HAVE TO WIN in Indy. PERIOD
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That's more want than "have to" like TPN said, there are scenarios that a 9-7 record will get you in. They aren't very likely at this point, but after next week there will be more talk about 9-7 getting an AFC seat.
 
JB said:
Not true as long as they beat the Ravens
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thunderkyss said:
That's more want than "have to" like TPN said, there are scenarios that a 9-7 record will get you in. They aren't very likely at this point, but after next week there will be more talk about 9-7 getting an AFC seat.
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I posted a pic of those scenarios. But if you go into the machine and make your best guesses at who wins it is a must win in Indy.

Either way its mind numbing hard to predict anything with so much damn parity in the league.
 
DX-TEX said:
I posted a pic of those scenarios. But if you go into the machine and make your best guesses at who wins it is a must win in Indy.

Either way its mind numbing hard to predict anything with so much damn parity in the league.
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I've done it multiple times with us losing in Indy, and as long as we beat the Ravens, the other teams beat each other up enough for us to get in.

Still a long shot I know. Winning out would be much preferable, but not the only way
 
If the Texans finish 9-7, the only way they don't make the playoffs is if two teams out of that 7-5 cluster (including San Diego at 8-4 but with a nightmare schedule) breakout to 10-6 finishes. There will, almost definitely, be a cluster of at least three teams at 9-7... so, the chances are quite good. Looking strictly at the wild card, assuming the Texans beat Jacksonville this week and then lose at Indy... their game against the Ravens will likely carry enormous weight for the entire AFC wild card picture.
 
JB said:
Go play with the playoff machine... the teams ahead of us are going to beat each other up. It's not that far fetched for 3 or more teams in the AFC to finish at 9-7, in which case we own the tie breakers.
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Awesome!!! Thanks! I picked losing to Indy, but beating the Ravens. For the rest, I simply picked who I think would win. We're in with the 6th seed against the Colts in the 1st round. Talk about a great way to get that first win in Indy!
 
One game at a time. Every game has to be considered to be a playoff game. Pull out all of the stops for every game. And please don't underestimate the Jaguars. Last year the Texans were swept by them, and in 2012 the Texans had to make a miraculous rally to beat them in OT at home.

Don't underestimate the Jags!!!
 
Runner said:
I had predicted 10-6 at the start of the season based on schedule/new coaching, so I had my share of the kool-aid. However, after seeing how bad Fitzpatrick actually was in this offense (the other Fitzpatrick, not the one from last week) I thought 9-7. Then Mallett led to a victory against the Browns, and I was on that 10-6 kool-aid again. After the bad, bad loss to the Bengals I can't drink any more.

How about this - I'll go with 9-7 now. I don't know if that gives them a snowball's chance in hell at the playoffs other than mathematically, but that's all I can do.

Rah-Rah!
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I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but I also cannot convince myself to be Kenny Koolaid at this point.

This year's team is already an imrovement over last year's team, so all of this is icing on the cake.

I'd love nothing more as a football fan than to see the Texans back in the playoffs.

I just don't see this year's team beating either the Colts in Indy or the Ravens. They have only beaten two winning teams, the Bills and Browns. The Bills was before they decided that EJ Manuel was EJ Manuel. And the Browns...well, they're the Browns, regardless if they've won more than they've lost this year.

Hey, it could happen! I will certainly be watching and rooting for them. But, the real Fitzpatrick could please stand up, and he won't be the QB monster we saw against the semi-pro Titans. That is where I see the Achilles heel for the Texans. They can only be as good as their historically limited QB.

Perhaps he proves me wrong, but in ten years, he has never been known as a clutch QB that can rise to pressure-cooked occasions. Maybe this year is different under O'Brien's Jedi training. He could be like Luke Skywalker, who was too old to be a Jedi, but Yoda O'Brien thought different.

And like HouTx11 just said, do not underestimate the Jags. Regardless of record, these two teams always play each other tough twice a year. The Jags would love nothing more than to take the Texans out of any playoff contention.
 
dream_team said:
Awesome!!! Thanks! I picked losing to Indy, but beating the Ravens. For the rest, I simply picked who I think would win. We're in with the 6th seed against the Colts in the 1st round. Talk about a great way to get that first win in Indy!
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Yep, same way I did it... just pick probably winners each week... of course you know there is going to be an upset or two, we just have to take care of business and hope for the best
 
Double Barrel said:
I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but I also cannot convince myself to be Kenny Koolaid at this point.

This year's team is already an imrovement over last year's team, so all of this is icing on the cake.

I'd love nothing more as a football fan than to see the Texans back in the playoffs.

I just don't see this year's team beating either the Colts in Indy or the Ravens. They have only beaten two winning teams, the Bills and Browns. The Bills was before they decided that EJ Manuel was EJ Manuel. And the Browns...well, they're the Browns, regardless if they've won more than they've lost this year.

Hey, it could happen! I will certainly be watching and rooting for them. But, the real Fitzpatrick could please stand up, and he won't be the QB monster we saw against the semi-pro Titans. That is where I see the Achilles heel for the Texans. They can only be as good as their historically limited QB.

Perhaps he proves me wrong, but in ten years, he has never been known as a clutch QB that can rise to pressure-cooked occasions. Maybe this year is different under O'Brien's Jedi training. He could be like Luke Skywalker, who was too old to be a Jedi, but Yoda O'Brien thought different.

And like HouTx11 just said, do not underestimate the Jags. Regardless of record, these two teams always play each other tough twice a year. The Jags would love nothing more than to take the Texans out of any playoff contention.
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And they also barely lost to the other good teams. We beat ourselves in those games more than those teams beat us. If we stay out of our own way we could win out. Just depends on which Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up.
 
Texans have a lot of working parts to be sucessful just need a Qb. Maybe they can draft Petty from Baylor.
 
Double Barrel said:
I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but I also cannot convince myself to be Kenny Koolaid at this point.

This year's team is already an imrovement over last year's team, so all of this is icing on the cake.

I'd love nothing more as a football fan than to see the Texans back in the playoffs.

I just don't see this year's team beating either the Colts in Indy or the Ravens. They have only beaten two winning teams, the Bills and Browns. The Bills was before they decided that EJ Manuel was EJ Manuel. And the Browns...well, they're the Browns, regardless if they've won more than they've lost this year.

Hey, it could happen! I will certainly be watching and rooting for them. But, the real Fitzpatrick could please stand up, and he won't be the QB monster we saw against the semi-pro Titans. That is where I see the Achilles heel for the Texans. They can only be as good as their historically limited QB.

Perhaps he proves me wrong, but in ten years, he has never been known as a clutch QB that can rise to pressure-cooked occasions. Maybe this year is different under O'Brien's Jedi training. He could be like Luke Skywalker, who was too old to be a Jedi, but Yoda O'Brien thought different.

And like HouTx11 just said, do not underestimate the Jags. Regardless of record, these two teams always play each other tough twice a year. The Jags would love nothing more than to take the Texans out of any playoff contention.
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And the Colts have only beaten TWO teams with winning records. Bengals and Ravens. I'm keeping my Kool-Aid at the ready.
 
austins23 said:
And the Colts have only beaten TWO teams with winning records. Bengals and Ravens. I'm keeping my Kool-Aid at the ready.
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After that win against Andy "Sexy Rexy" Dalton and the Bengals, they have been blown out against two good teams and beat 3 really, really bad teams (NYG, JAX, WAS). It makes that first quarter of the Texans game all that more painful.

Look at all of the 7-win and 8-win teams in front of the Texans and their wins against teams over .500:

Cleveland - 2
Pittsburgh - 3
Baltimore - 2
Buffalo - 3
Kansas City - 5
Miami - 3
San Diego - 3
Indianapolis - 2
Cincinnati - 2 (technically one since both wins were against BAL)

Outside of KC, everyone else is feasting on the bad teams just like the Texans. If you look at remaining opponents, the Texans easily have one of the most favorable schedules even with Indy and Baltimore on the schedule.

But they have consistently lost against good teams. And Fitz does his own Sexy Rexy channeling at times. And JAX will want to play spoiler. So who knows...
 
Off topic but I've got to share it. Schaub has one pass this year and it was intercepted, making 8 million a year backing up rookie D Carr of the Raiders on one of the worse teams in the NFL. I think we got a #6 for him which turned out to be RB Blue who has been the best Texans rookie this year. Rumor has it that he may start the next game though after the Raiders lost to the Rams 52-0.
 
humblegeo said:
Off topic but I've got to share it. Schaub has one pass this year and it was intercepted, making 8 million a year backing up rookie D Carr of the Raiders on one of the worse teams in the NFL. I think we got a #6 for him which turned out to be RB Blue who has been the best Texans rookie this year. Rumor has it that he may start the next game though after the Raiders lost to the Rams 52-0.
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Yes off topic and there is a Schaub thread in the NFL forum.

Also your stats are off.
 
Hoyer will start against the Colts.

Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer · 18m18 minutes ago
Can confirm @JayGlazer's report that Brian Hoyer, not Johnny Manziel, will start for the Browns on Sunday
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.
 
amazing80 said:
And they also barely lost to the other good teams. We beat ourselves in those games more than those teams beat us. If we stay out of our own way we could win out. Just depends on which Ryan Fitzpatrick shows up.
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Well, yeah, that basically reinforces my entire point. Fitzpatrick has been streaky his entire career, so expecting him to put together 5 great games in a row is asking for more than his history tends to support.

That said, I've been pleasantly surprised by Fitz this year. Many of the Texans losses this year were team losses and not just on the QB.

Crazier things have happened in the NFL, so who knows. I'd love nothing more than to be wrong about my gut feelings on how things will turn out.
 
The Texans will make the playoffs if they win out and the Colts lose @Cleveland or @Dallas.

We would win division with the tie-breaker over the Colts by having a better conference record.

I think this is the simplest scenario for us to make the playoffs.
 
OilerTexan said:
The Texans will make the playoffs if they win out and the Colts lose @Cleveland or @Dallas.

We would win division with the tie-breaker over the Colts by having a better conference record.

I think this is the simplest scenario for us to make the playoffs.
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The simplest was is for Indy to lose to us and the Titans.
 
I understand Indy gets the love because they have Luck as a Qb but they have some serious holes on that team. I am not impressed with there defense.
 
Basically, every game from here on is a playoff game. If they win out, a wild card berth is highly likely.
 
417Texan said:
I understand Indy gets the love because they have Luck as a Qb but they have some serious holes on that team. I am not impressed with there defense.
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I think their years of success have something to do with it too.
 
Lucky said:
Basically, every game from here on is a playoff game. If they win out, a wild card berth is highly likely.
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IF that happens and the Colts lose 1 of the other 3, its the AFCS title. Never mind, the 3rd tiebreaker is common opponents. That would leave the Texans on the outside in this scenario.
 
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amazing80 said:
The simplest was is for Indy to lose to us and the Titans.
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You're right. I was wrong about the tie-breaker. After division record the next tie-breaker is common opponents which would be give it to the Colts. So if the Texans win out, the Colts still win the division unless they lose to the Titans or both the Browns and the Cowboys.
 
Haloti Ngata is suspended for the final four games of the season. Might come in handy when we play them in a couple weeks.
 
dream_team said:
Play with the playoff machine on ESPN's site. Texans in playoffs is easier than I thought. They can even lose to the Colts but still have a good shot at playoffs.
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They have a chance at 9-7 with the loss to the Colts, but I wouldn't call it good. I had to rearrange several game results from what I originally picked to get the Texans in.

According to playoffstatus.com, the Texans have an 96% chance of making the playoffs with 4 wins. If they lose 1 game (without specifying which one), their chances drop to 20%.

Basically, win out and you're in.

LINK
 
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Who to root for this weekend (interactive implication tool if you follow the link)

LINK

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Ok if we somehow get in as the 5th or 6th seed we will get to play what teams do you think ? If we are the sixth seed will we see luck again right off ?:spin:
 
pappy said:
Ok if we somehow get in as the 5th or 6th seed we will get to play what teams do you think ? If we are the sixth seed will we see luck again right off ?:spin:
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We would play the Bengals/Steelers or the Colts, depending on how they finish.
 
pappy said:
Ok if we somehow get in as the 5th or 6th seed we will get to play what teams do you think ? If we are the sixth seed will we see luck again right off ?:spin:
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Just playing around with the Playoff Machine, I hit several variations where we played the Colts but also the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, and Browns (depending on how that whole division turns out.)
 
pappy said:
Ok if we somehow get in as the 5th or 6th seed we will get to play what teams do you think ? If we are the sixth seed will we see luck again right off ?:spin:
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thunderkyss said:
We would play the Bengals/Steelers or the Colts, depending on how they finish.
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The Pencil Neck said:
Just playing around with the Playoff Machine, I hit several variations where we played the Colts but also the Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, and Browns (depending on how that whole division turns out.)
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Pssshhh...not worried. We are winning the damn division.
 
Lucky said:
in
So that surprises me that Cleveland winning over Indy wouldn't help the Texans playoff chances.
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one thing i'm sure of Bengals must win there division for us to get in .
Even if we win the division I believe we play luck first round .:koolaid:
 
Lucky said:
in
So that surprises me that Cleveland winning over Indy wouldn't help the Texans playoff chances.
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Yeah, that's odd. Unless the wins by either team offsets the win by the other. If Browns win, it helps us win the division (as reflected by the Division tab), but hurts us in the wild card hunt. If the Colts win, it's the other way around.
 
paycheck71 said:
Yeah, that's odd. Unless the wins by either team offsets the win by the other. If Browns win, it helps us win the division (as reflected by the Division tab), but hurts us in the wild card hunt. If the Colts win, it's the other way around.
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The Browns win does ZERO to help us catch Indy, unless they lose 3 out of the last 4 which is unlikely. We all need to be Colts fans this week.

If you want to have a shot at the division, you need to run the table and then have the Tacks win vs Indy in week 17.
 
amazing80 said:
The Browns win does ZERO to help us catch Indy, unless they lose 3 out of the last 4 which is unlikely. We all need to be Colts fans this week.

If you want to have a shot at the division, you need to run the table and then have the Tacks win vs Indy in week 17.
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That doesn't make sense. If the Colts lose this week & we win, we're a game closer than we are now. Then if we beat them @Indy, we're both 8-6 with two weeks to go.

They'll have the Cowboys & the Titans

We'll have the Ravens & the Jags.

I like our chances of winning the division at that point. No way I'm rooting for the Browns who still have Cincinnati & Baltimore after the Colts.
 
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