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Texans Playoff Picture

Marshall

Marshall

Not pretty, but ALIVE!
Unfortunately, tonight's games do not quite let us control our own destiny yet. If both we and the colts win out with the exception of a Houston win in Indianapolis, then we would tie the first two tie breakers, head-to-head and division record, but lose out on the common opponents where Indianapolis has only 2 losses against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia while we have losses against Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York Giants and Cowboys.

We really need to win this outright or hope the Colts slip up against JAX or Tacks.
 
I didn't go into this season with any playoff expectations, and I still don't. If they do manage to somehow make it, then good for them. You look at it like the team does. You just watch the next game, and every game after that, and let the chips fall where they may.

And yeah, it's way, way too early.
 
Should have ****ing beat Indianapolis. Ugh. Not to mention Pittsburgh and Dallas. Stupid, stupid, stupid losses.

Even if we just didn't spot Indy 10 points and beat them, we'd be leading the damn division. Ugh.

But hey, 5-5. Season begins anew. So many teams in the AFC though. The herd has to thin out big time.
 
Showtime100 said:
Somebody call me when the Texans get a secondary. I'll talk playoffs then.
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Yeah, the Bengals are tougher in the receiver department than the Browns were. Hopefully Clowney starts to earn his keep. The key is going to be getting to beating Dalton, not beating their receivers.
 
Just still being in the discussion in a few weeks is quite an accomplishment for a team that won 2 games last year. I don't have much hope that we have a chance at a spot but the schedule does give us an opportunity to make a run.
 
5-5. Might as well be 0-0. Our destiny is certainly in our hands. Feels good to be .500 again though.
 
Showtime100 said:
Somebody call me when the Texans get a secondary. I'll talk playoffs then.
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There's nothing wrong with the secondary that a decent pass rush can't cure. It all starts up front. Win the battle in the trenches, you make the secondary look good. But if you don't, you're hanging them out to dry.

And will someone please tell Clowney to get his **** together?
 
Division record comes before everything but head to head. Therefore, it is reasonable, even likely, to expect that the Texans would win the AFC south if they finished 5-1 over the last 6 games, if 4 of those wins were their remaining divisional contests.

The second wildcard spot is also looking promising. If we assume the first spot goes to 2nd place in the AFC west, then we are looking at a battle between Houston, Miami, San Diego, and 2nd place in the AFC north for the last wildcard. Houston has a win vs. Cleveland... Still can earn wins vs. Baltimore and cincinnati... If houston finishes 10-6, it will have a conference record of 9-3, which would put them in great position in most scenarios. Even. 9-7 finish if two of the wins were Cincinnati and Baltimore, could work out well if things get convoluted enough in December.
 
That is the one thing that could play into the Texans' hands: conference wins. When it comes to that aspect, the Texans VERY MUCH control their own destiny right now. Against all of the AFC North and Buffalo, head to head will be the tie-breaker. But against Kansas City, San Diego and Miami, conference wins will be very important.

Wins in the division first, then common opponents comes before conference wins when tied against the Colts.
 
If the Texans are going to the playoffs, they can only lose one more game this season, at most. I don't think they'll make it in with a 9-7 record. It's possible, but doubtful.
 
Thorn said:
If the Texans are going to the playoffs, they can only lose one more game this season, at most. I don't think they'll make it in with a 9-7 record. It's possible, but doubtful.
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It's really hard to say right now, because everybody still has to play everybody. We can't all win out. We've just got to take care of business the rest of November, then see how it looks when we get past all the bye weeks.
 
thunderkyss said:
It's really hard to say right now, because everybody still has to play everybody. We can't all win out. We've just got to take care of business the rest of November, then see how it looks when we get past all the bye weeks.
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I'm starting to mix a little Kool-Aid with my coffee now because of Mallet. It's nice to know we have a QB. But I do think we have to give him another week or two to see how this works out. If they beat the Bungles this week, I'll start getting really excited.
 
Allstar said:
Common opponents comes before conference record?
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Correct. Divisional tiebreakers are as follows:

1. Head to head
2. Divisional record
3. Record against common opponents
4. Conference record

I would add the rest but I don't think it'll get down to the 5th tiebreaker which is strength of victory.
 
FYI, common opponents comes before conference record. I was in error in another thread when I had them switched.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
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Thorn said:
I'm starting to mix a little Kool-Aid with my coffee now because of Mallet. It's nice to know we have a QB. But I do think we have to give him another week or two to see how this works out. If they beat the Bungles this week, I'll start getting really excited.
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For any chance they have to beat the Bengals Sunday. If they can pull that off at home, they have the Jags and Titans the following 2 weeks. Things will get rosier if we can get to 8-5. That'll give them a little breathing room on the Indy game. Indy has a pretty weak schedule if I can recall the rest of this season so a wild card spot is the most likely scenario but the Bengals game is the key to the season IMO.
 
It's the common opponents record that kills us.

We've lost 4 against common opponents so far and they've only lost 2. For us to win back the tie-breaker if we end up with the same record, they'd have to lose some divisional games.
 
nytexan said:
For any chance they have to beat the Bengals Sunday. If they can pull that off at home, they have the Jags and Titans the following 2 weeks. Things will get rosier if we can get to 8-5. That'll give them a little breathing room on the Indy game. Indy has a pretty weak schedule if I can recall the rest of this season so a wild card spot is the most likely scenario but the Bengals game is the key to the season IMO.
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They have one more stretch than can be tough, @Browns, Texans, @Dallas. Losing a couple isn't out of the question for them. Hopefully the Jags are butt hurt over the last loss and they play great and steal a win.
 
Way too early for playoff talk for me, but cannot blame other fans for entertaining the discussion.

Personally, I think the Texans need to win out for a chance. This conference will most likely have 10-6 wildcard teams.

And I do not think the Texans will get past the Colts on record

Heck, I'd be happy with them finally winning in Indy. So tired of hearing that stat every season. It's time for that one to go away with a win.
 
Any scenario that involves winning @Indy is koolaid talking.

I think us finishing 4-2 (losing @Indy & at home against Baltimore) and missing the playoffs.

Not very exciting, but it would prove that OB is doing something right. Taking over a 2-14 team and coaching them to 9-7 in your first year is impressive. I'm going to go ahead and say that I am excited to see what one more off season can do for us (or to us as the case sometimes is).
 
The Bishop ‏@BillBishopKHOU
#Texans are 5-5 in the AFC south, one game out of first place. And the 6-4 Colts just lost running back Ahmad Bradshaw to a feared broken right ankle. #khou
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Playoffs said:
The Bishop ‏@BillBishopKHOU
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Fracture (specifically of the fibula component of his ankle) has been confirmed.........out for the season.

EDIT: Now, in attempt to determine if he can return before season's end (probably anticipating playoffs), he will be visiting other surgeons for treatment direction.......I doubt return is going to be reasonable....and if so, his effectiveness will likely make him a non-factor anyway.
 
Double Barrel said:
Way too early for playoff talk for me, but cannot blame other fans for entertaining the discussion.

Personally, I think the Texans need to win out for a chance. This conference will most likely have 10-6 wildcard teams.

And I do not think the Texans will get past the Colts on record

Heck, I'd be happy with them finally winning in Indy. So tired of hearing that stat every season. It's time for that one to go away with a win.
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I think 10-6 and missing the playoffs might be the best the Texans can do at this point. If Mallett does pan out, it will lead to a lot of woulda coulda shouldas about a couple of the earlier losses.
 
TheMatrix31 said:
Nah, you don't get to get excited if that happens. You already threw in the towel.

http://www.texanstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2416968&postcount=10
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LOL. Maybe, maybe not. There's no telling what can happen in the NFL. I think it would take a miracle to get the Texans into the playoffs, but stranger things have happened. Including a team turning around mid season with a new QB.

Nobody knows what's going to happen anyway. We just come in here and post stuff about how we feel at the moment. I can't tell you how many times I loved and hated Schaub from week to week. :lol:
 
Colt's TE Dwayne Allen was also injured Sunday........supposedly a "minor" low ankle sprain putting him day-to-day........missing at least 1 game would not be surprising.
 
Anyone that says we could never beat the Dolts is full of crap. The Lambs beat Denny yesterday (whodathunkit?) and the Dolts didn't look good against the Patsies. Stranger things have happened. Not saying it probably will. I ain't sayin', I'm just sayin'.
 
Am I the only one that thinks that some plays that used to go against Texans are going in their favor? Watching Sunday with a couple of buddies there were several flags that we thought would be called against Houston but went other way. I am not into "luck, superstitions, etc" but ...
 
badboy said:
Am I the only one that thinks that some plays that used to go against Texans are going in their favor? Watching Sunday with a couple of buddies there were several flags that we thought would be called against Houston but went other way. I am not into "luck, superstitions, etc" but ...
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I also noticed that... quite a few times I was like "Oh no!, Oh yeah!"

Texans played one of their cleanest games imo
 
JB said:
I also noticed that... quite a few times I was like "Oh no!, Oh yeah!"

Texans played one of their cleanest games imo
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yeah they maintained discipline and control even when emotions could overwhelm, like Watt getting the two flags but not "losing it on the field". That is what I referred to in another thread "what do you expect against Browns" as game plan.
 
badboy said:
Am I the only one that thinks that some plays that used to go against Texans are going in their favor? Watching Sunday with a couple of buddies there were several flags that we thought would be called against Houston but went other way. I am not into "luck, superstitions, etc" but ...
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We were playing the Browns. Their bad luck outweighs ours.
 
thunderkyss said:
Yeah, the Bengals are tougher in the receiver department than the Browns were. Hopefully Clowney starts to earn his keep. The key is going to be getting to beating Dalton, not beating their receivers.
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Man, that is hard one to judge. Hoyer is better than Dalton in just about every passing category except completion percentage. As a team, the vast majority of the Cleveland receptions are by WR's, whereas the Bengals #2-#5 reception leaders are TE/RB's. Bengals have two WR's that are at 75/1200/8, where the Browns have three that are at 105/1500/5.

Personally, I think the Browns rely a whole lot more on their wideouts in the passing attack than the Bengals. The Bengals do a much better job of distributing the ball to their TE's and RB's who have over 90 receptions. To me, that distribution and a running game averaging 125 yards per game are what makes them dangerous to the Texans.

Interesting stat: Over 70% of Daltons attempts have been either behind the LOS or thrown less than 10 yards, which shows that he targets the TE/RB a lot. Gresham is only averaging 7.6 YPC, and most of that is YAC.

Not that they can't go downfield. Their two wideouts have 17 catches of 20+ yards. But Dalton has only completed 9 passes all season that were thrown for 20+ yards. Control the LOS with the TE's and RB's and the Texans will put themselves in a good place to win.
 
Texans can contend in AFC South
Stout D, capable QB and favorable schedule point to Houston staying in race
By Field Yates | ESPN Insider
...
Here's a look at why Houston can't be counted out in the AFC South.

Assessing Mallett under center

...there wasn't a ton of exposure to Mallett prior to his Week 11 start other than some preseason action and the occasional late-game snaps with the score out of reach in New England. Said one NFL coach who has previously watched Mallett: "Arm strength is up there. think he is more athletic than people give him credit for." On Sunday, during his first start, Mallett showed very good command of the offense, as evidenced by his hand-signaling and orchestration at the line of scrimmage.

"He was so confident," one NFL personnel man who studied the game said. "He ran the offense quickly and they ran the football really well."

Mallett showed good situational awareness, too. For example, after underthrowing Andre Johnson on his first throw of the game, Mallett rushed the offense to the line of scrimmage in an attempt to snap the ball before Cleveland head coach Mike Pettine could challenge the ruling of a catch on the field. Though the play was overturned, Mallett's urgency to get to the line of scrimmage was important.

And while Mallett had another pass that was underthrown -- resulting in a Joe Haden interception -- it's clear that with a run-heavy offense to draw defenders toward the line of scrimmage, the Texans will be able to test teams down the field via play-action...

Front seven is a strength

A team's sack total, taken in a vacuum, can be misleading. The Texans have just 21 this season, which ranks 19th in the league, and the fewest among any team in their division. But they generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks far more frequently.

And here's what stands out in reviewing the Texans on film: The front seven can attack you in a variety of ways and angles. While it certainly helps to have gifted natural rushers -- none better than MVP candidate J.J. Watt -- the Texans are able to scheme pressure as well. Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel is creative in his blitzes, making it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to decipher when and from where the pressure is coming. There have been stretches of his coaching career where Crennel has been less blitz-happy relative to coordinators around the league, but such is not the case this season, as they've blitzed on 166 snaps this season, per ESPN Stats & Info, the third-highest total in the league.

Identifying that pressure is the challenge. To wit: On the Texans' first sack in Week 11, the team had just two players start with a hand in the dirt, as three other defenders hovered at the line of scrimmage in a two-point stance, giving the impression that five rushers were coming. At the snap, however, just three players actually rushed, with Watt easily handling right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, forcing a fumble by Hoyer that Watt would recover. On the team's second sack, the Texans aligned in their base 3-4 front, showing no signs of pre-snap pressure. But Crennel sent both inside linebackers -- Brian Cushing and Akeem Dent -- on A-gap blitzes, with Dent running free to drill Hoyer.
...

Outlook

The Texans and Colts each have six games remaining, including a Week 15 matchup in Indianapolis (the Colts won their earlier meeting in Houston). To the right is each team's remaining schedule.
Code: 
Wk	HOU schedule	IND schedule
12	Bengals (6-3-1)	Jaguars (1-9)
13	Titans (2-8)	Washington (3-7)
14	@Jaguars (1-9)	@Browns (6-4)
16	Ravens (6-4)	@Cowboys (7-3)
17	Jaguars (1-9)	@Titans (2-8)

The Colts have the inside track with a head-to-head win and one-game lead as things currently stand, but while this division once looked like it would be among the least competitive in the NFL, that no longer appears to be the case.

If the Texans take care of business against Jacksonville and Tennessee, plus win one of their two games against a team with a winning record, the Week 15 matchup could wind up with significant divisional implications. The Texans' offense isn't proficient enough to give the team much margin for error, but if the Colts can't get back on track defensively (117 points allowed over past three weeks), this division will remain tight until season's end.
Click to expand...
 
Playoffs said:
Texans can contend in AFC South
Stout D, capable QB and favorable schedule point to Houston staying in race
By Field Yates | ESPN Insider

Outlook

The Texans and Colts each have six games remaining, including a Week 15 matchup in Indianapolis (the Colts won their earlier meeting in Houston). To the right is each team's remaining schedule.
Code:
Wk HOU schedule IND schedule
12 Bengals (6-3-1) Jaguars (1-9)
13 Titans (2-8) Washington (3-7)
14 @Jaguars (1-9) @Browns (6-4)
16 Ravens (6-4) @Cowboys (7-3)
17 Jaguars (1-9) @Titans (2-8)
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The Colts have the inside track with a head-to-head win and one-game lead as things currently stand, but while this division once looked like it would be among the least competitive in the NFL, that no longer appears to be the case.

If the Texans take care of business against Jacksonville and Tennessee, plus win one of their two games against a team with a winning record, the Week 15 matchup could wind up with significant divisional implications. The Texans' offense isn't proficient enough to give the team much margin for error, but if the Colts can't get back on track defensively (117 points allowed over past three weeks), this division will remain tight until season's end.
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are you telling me that in week 16, if the Texans beat Indy in Indy, I may have to do something I swore I would never do again in my life...

I am going to have to root for the Cowboys to beat Indy?

Damn you O'Brien for not starting Mallett sooner...

Damn you straight to hell....
 
God the Titans and the Jags are just awful. I thought at least the Titans would be halfass but NOOOOOPE, same old Titans, same old Jags.
 
b0ng said:
God the Titans and the Jags are just awful. I thought at least the Titans would be halfass but NOOOOOPE, same old Titans, same old Jags.
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Me, too. I thought they'd both made some good moves over the offseason; I thought they both had pretty good coaches; I thought they'd both be tough this year.

I was wrong.

I'm man enough to admit that.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
The ESPN NFL Playoff Machine

In case anyone forgot about this.
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BTW, I was farting around with this and I went through and picked the games as I thought they might go, trying only to pick the teams I thought would be favored for a given game. I had us winning out and the Colts winning out EXCEPT for their loss to us.

We ended up tied at 11-5 with the Colts winning the division. HOWEVER, we ended up getting the wildcard.

AND our playoff game was against the Colts.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
BTW, I was farting around with this and I went through and picked the games as I thought they might go, trying only to pick the teams I thought would be favored for a given game. I had us winning out and the Colts winning out EXCEPT for their loss to us.

We ended up tied at 11-5 with the Colts winning the division. HOWEVER, we ended up getting the wildcard.

AND our playoff game was against the Colts.
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AND... the Falcons won their division with a 6-10 record.
 
b0ng said:
God the Titans and the Jags are just awful. I thought at least the Titans would be halfass but NOOOOOPE, same old Titans, same old Jags.
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The Titans just played a heck of a game Monday night. I bet they win at least one more game before it's over.

They got Philly this week, then us. Then Giants, Jets, Jags, Colts.

They could beat us... they'll probably beat the Giants, Jets, & Jags. I hope they can put one together & beat the Colts as well.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
BTW, I was farting around with this and I went through and picked the games as I thought they might go, trying only to pick the teams I thought would be favored for a given game. I had us winning out and the Colts winning out EXCEPT for their loss to us.



We ended up tied at 11-5 with the Colts winning the division. HOWEVER, we ended up getting the wildcard.



AND our playoff game was against the Colts.
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How is that possible because after head to head, conference record comes into play and if we win out we would have a better conference record against the colts thus giving us the division title.
 
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