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Texans in the playoffs at 9-7

Ole Miss Texan said:
Do I have it right: Texans win out and if Jags/Colts/Tits lose just one of their other games then we're in as division winners?

If that's true, this has got to be pasted all over the Texans locker room. The odds are in our favor if we win out. The Jags, Colts, and Tats all play each other. Other games include Oakland, Kansas City and Washington. While KC may be the only "playoff" team... OAK and WAS really arent that bad and can definitely beat them.
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Probability is slim... we all know that. But to me, it doesn't make sense to give up now. To stop supporting the Texans now.

If we beat Baltimore, & they somehow finish 9-7, we'd win the final Wildcard.

too much at stake now.

However, just so I'm clear, even though I've been saying this all year long. IMO, even if the Texans make the play-offs at 9-7, whether it's as division champs, or the wild card, we can't just be competitive in one game. For me to support Kubiak staying the Texans head coach, we have to make a serious run for the Super Bowl.

Losing a competitive divisional play-off game might do it, but I've got to see the game. If we lose that game because of the same Tom Foolery we've seen over our 4 game losing streak, I wouldn't support him.

& this is me. This is my opinion, if Bob chooses to continue with Kubiak, that's his decision, & I'm not going to cry about it. Just like I didn't cry when they gave Carr $8mill. I stated my displeasure & moved on.

Heck, I bought a Carr jersey to show my support.....

for the team.
 
74f695c0c972511457de77c4f408f250.jpg


:cow:
 
Wow, if Jacksonville wins the next two weeks (home against OAK and then at IND) then the Jags are guaranteed a playoff spot and we'll miss out. We have to be rooting for Oakland this weekend.

If the Jags win then it's a MUST that Indy beats them the following week. Assuming Indy wins this week at TEN and then the game against JAC... then all they have to do is lose either against OAK or the next TEN and we will go.
 
thunderkyss said:
However, just so I'm clear, even though I've been saying this all year long. IMO, even if the Texans make the play-offs at 9-7, whether it's as division champs, or the wild card, we can't just be competitive in one game. For me to support Kubiak staying the Texans head coach, we have to make a serious run for the Super Bowl.

Losing a competitive divisional play-off game might do it, but I've got to see the game. If we lose that game because of the same Tom Foolery we've seen over our 4 game losing streak, I wouldn't support him.
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Call me crazy but for the alst couple of years I've thought that the Texans would be an excellent playoffs team, if we could make the playoffs - we just can't get through the boring 16 weeks of game play to get there. In a one off game, we can pull it out - putting a run at the division together over a couple of months if a mucher taller task.
 
None of this speculation means anything if we don't beat Baltimore on Monday night. Now how many of yall really think that's going to happen?
 
Thorn said:
None of this speculation means anything if we don't beat Baltimore on Monday night. Now how many of yall really think that's going to happen?
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Baltimore is going to leave a Schaub colored stain on the field Monday Night. No meaningless 4-0 run for Gary's Kids this year I think.
 
Ole Miss Texan said:
Wow, if Jacksonville wins the next two weeks (home against OAK and then at IND) then the Jags are guaranteed a playoff spot and we'll miss out. We have to be rooting for Oakland this weekend.

If the Jags win then it's a MUST that Indy beats them the following week. Assuming Indy wins this week at TEN and then the game against JAC... then all they have to do is lose either against OAK or the next TEN and we will go.
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Not necessarily. Even if Jacksonville wins against Oakland and Indy, we can still win the division, as long as Indy loses another game besides Jacksonville. If Jacksonville beats Oakland and Indy, loses to Washington, and then loses to us (assuming we run the table), we'll win the division as long as Indy also loses once more besides to Jacksonville. In that scenario, we would beat the Jags in the common games tiebreaker.

However, if Indy's only loss is to the Jags and it's a three-way tie between us, the Jags, and Colts, the Jags would win the division based on best W-L record against the other two teams.
 
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tedr said:
Not necessarily. Even if Jacksonville wins against Oakland and Indy, we can still win the division, as long as Indy loses another game besides Jacksonville. If Jackson beats Oakland and Indy, loses to Washington, and then loses to us (assuming we run the table), we'll win the division as long as Indy also loses once more besides to Jacksonville. In that scenario, we would beat the Jags in the common games tiebreaker.

However, if Indy's only loss is to the Jags and it's a three-way tie between us, the Jags, and Colts, the Jags would win the division based on best W-L record against the other two teams.
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I'm almost positive you are wrong. The Jags have have two losses in the division. If we beat them in week 17, they would have three. So, we would win the tiebreaker against them in that case, because we will have a split and a better division record. If we win out, Indy is the only team that could match our division record (assuming they win the two against Tennessee and the game against Jacksonville)... if that happens but they lose to Oakland, the Texans still win the tiebreaker against Tennessee.

The way I understand things, the Texans simply need the Colts and the Jags (plus the one in week 17 to us) to lose a game.
 
dalemurphy said:
I'm almost positive you are wrong. The Jags have have two losses in the division. If we beat them in week 17, they would have three. So, we would win the tiebreaker against them in that case, because we will have a split and a better division record. If we win out, Indy is the only team that could match our division record (assuming they win the two against Tennessee and the game against Jacksonville)... if that happens but they lose to Oakland, the Texans still win the tiebreaker against Tennessee.

The way I understand things, the Texans simply need the Colts and the Jags (plus the one in week 17 to us) to lose a game.
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And we need to win out...
 
dalemurphy said:
I'm almost positive you are wrong. The Jags have have two losses in the division. If we beat them in week 17, they would have three. So, we would win the tiebreaker against them in that case, because we will have a split and a better division record. If we win out, Indy is the only team that could match our division record (assuming they win the two against Tennessee and the game against Jacksonville)... if that happens but they lose to Oakland, the Texans still win the tiebreaker against Tennessee.

The way I understand things, the Texans simply need the Colts and the Jags (plus the one in week 17 to us) to lose a game.
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I'm pretty sure I'm right. If Jacksonville beats Indy and either Washington or Oakland, and then loses to the Texans, they will finish with a 9-7 record and 4-2 in the division (they would have swept Indy, and split with the Texans and Tennessee). Houston would also be 9-7 with a 4-2 division record (we would have swept Tennessee, and split with Jacksonville and Indy). In a two-way tie with Jacksonville, because we split with them and have the same division record, it would go to the next tiebreaker, which is record in common games. We would win this tiebreaker, under the scenario I described.

However, if Indy only loses to Jacksonville and wins the rest of its games, it would also be 9-7 with a 3-3 division record. The first tiebreaker for a three-way division tie is record among the tied teams. Jacksonville would be 3-1 (swept Indy and split with us), Houston would be 2-2 (split with Jax and Indy), and Indy would be 1-3 (split with us, swept by Jax). Based on that, Jacksonville would win the division.

If you'd like to play out what I described, the Yahoo playoff generator is a pretty handy tool.
 
tedr said:
I'm pretty sure I'm right. If Jacksonville beats Indy and either Washington or Oakland, and then loses to the Texans, they will finish with a 9-7 record and 4-2 in the division (they would have swept Indy, and split with the Texans and Tennessee). Houston would also be 9-7 with a 4-2 division record (we would have swept Tennessee, and split with Jacksonville and Indy). In a two-way tie with Jacksonville, because we split with them and have the same division record, it would go to the next tiebreaker, which is record in common games. We would win this tiebreaker, under the scenario I described.

However, if Indy only loses to Jacksonville and wins the rest of its games, it would also be 9-7 with a 3-3 division record. The first tiebreaker for a three-way division tie is record among the tied teams. Jacksonville would be 3-1 (swept Indy and split with us), Houston would be 2-2 (split with Jax and Indy), and Indy would be 1-3 (split with us, swept by Jax). Based on that, Jacksonville would win the division.

If you'd like to play out what I described, the Yahoo playoff generator is a pretty handy tool.
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Tedr... You are right. Thanks. I've been working off the assumption that Indy will beat Jacksonville in Indy.

I think we have a good shot to clear the decks for our 4 game run this week. The game the Colts are most likely to lose of their final four is this week's game at Tennessee (possible inclimate weather, also). And, certainly Jacksonville is about a pickem on the road against Oakland.
 
dalemurphy said:
Tedr... You are right. Thanks. I've been working off the assumption that Indy will beat Jacksonville in Indy.

I think we have a good shot to clear the decks for our 4 game run this week. The game the Colts are most likely to lose of their final four is this week's game at Tennessee (possible inclimate weather, also). And, certainly Jacksonville is about a pickem on the road against Oakland.
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No problem. Actually, I think your scenario of Jacksonville losing at Indy for their only loss coming into the game against Houston is definitely the most likely- I'd like to think Oakland will beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville, but I don't know. Also, I think Indy has a decent shot at losing to Oakland. Oakland's hot, and since Indy has to travel there, I wouldn't be surprised to see Oakland favored. And, as you mentioned, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tennessee beat Indy tomorrow night.

Of course, all speculation about this is meaningless if the Texans don't take care of business, but if they do, these last four weeks should be pretty exciting.
 
tedr said:
Not necessarily. Even if Jacksonville wins against Oakland and Indy, we can still win the division, as long as Indy loses another game besides Jacksonville. If Jackson beats Oakland and Indy, loses to Washington, and then loses to us (assuming we run the table), we'll win the division as long as Indy also loses once more besides to Jacksonville. In that scenario, we would beat the Jags in the common games tiebreaker.

However, if Indy's only loss is to the Jags and it's a three-way tie between us, the Jags, and Colts, the Jags would win the division based on best W-L record against the other two teams.
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You're right... this stuff is blowing my mind. So many variables.
 
Almost laughable!! Our Texans on MNF against the Ravens!!! Our boys have an allergic reaction everytime they play on National TV and you guys seem to think we stand a chance in the playoffs!! GAWD, I hope you are right, but, I just don't see it happening! We SUCK on National TV!!!!! BUT, we will be in all RED, so maybe our boys will give us an early Christmas present!!:texflag:
 
Hold the firing squad...just curious. If we lose to Baltimore are we mathematically, totally, bonafide, straight up OUT? Or is there a 1% possibility if we win the final three. :thinking:
 
valleytexfan said:
Hold the firing squad...just curious. If we lose to Baltimore are we mathematically, totally, bonafide, straight up OUT? Or is there a 1% possibility if we win the final three. :thinking:
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First off we ain't winning the division, it's silly to even imagine it.

Secondly, even if there is a mathematical chance of us winning the division at 8-8, it wouldn't happen. After the Jacksonville and Philly games I believe we are cursed by the football gods for 2010 and no amount of hope will do anyone any good except for maybe setting themselves up for ever greater heartbreak.

I believe the football gods are angry with Houston and have been for the last fifty years. I don't know why, but I'm sure it's true as there is no other seemingly reasonable explanation for our misfortunes.
 
valleytexfan said:
Hold the firing squad...just curious. If we lose to Baltimore are we mathematically, totally, bonafide, straight up OUT? Or is there a 1% possibility if we win the final three. :thinking:
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No, we're not out. In fact, we could conceivably win the division even with a 7-9 record, since we would hold almost all of the tiebreaker advantages.

Of course, even if we win out, we're not guaranteed a spot. After the next two weeks, things should clear up considerably.
 
SheTexan said:
Almost laughable!! Our Texans on MNF against the Ravens!!! Our boys have an allergic reaction everytime they play on National TV and you guys seem to think we stand a chance in the playoffs!! GAWD, I hope you are right, but, I just don't see it happening! We SUCK on National TV!!!!! BUT, we will be in all RED, so maybe our boys will give us an early Christmas present!!:texflag:
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Or the decision for all RED may be to mask their anticipating another national TV embarassment.


face-embarrassedpng-cca965a02600e18d.png
:texflag:
 
tedr said:
No, we're not out. In fact, we could conceivably win the division even with a 7-9 record, since we would hold almost all of the tiebreaker advantages.

Of course, even if we win out, we're not guaranteed a spot. After the next two weeks, things should clear up considerably.
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At 8-8, with the one loss vs. Baltimore, here's an example of how we win the division:

Indy loses at Tennessee and at Oakland/or v. Tennessee.

Jacksonville loses at Oakland and at Indy.

We win our final three games.
 
dalemurphy said:
At 8-8, with the one loss vs. Baltimore, here's an example of how we win the division:

Indy loses at Tennessee and at Oakland/or v. Tennessee.

Jacksonville loses at Oakland and at Indy.

We win our final three games.
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Time to recalculate
 
Man, I will be soooo glad when all of this stuff is put to bed.

The Texans haven't taken care of their business and I dont suspect they will start taking care of their business any time soon. Starting with the embarrassment that will happen on prime time NNF.
 
steelbtexan said:
The Texans haven't taken care of their business and I dont suspect they will start taking care of their business any time soon. Starting with the embarrassment that will happen on prime time NNF.
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So what will you be watching on TV Monday night? Inquiring minds would like to know.




....given all the BS that's happened this year, the least you gotta do is give yourself a chance for something funky to happen. If we win this Baltimore game, it's all fair game. The next two teams we play are utter trash, and Jacksonville needed RIDICULOUS luck to beat us in Game 1.

It ain't gonna happen, but stranger things have happened.
 
TheMatrix31 said:
So what will you be watching on TV Monday night? Inquiring minds would like to know.




....given all the BS that's happened this year, the least you gotta do is give yourself a chance for something funky to happen. If we win this Baltimore game, it's all fair game. The next two teams we play are utter trash, and Jacksonville needed RIDICULOUS luck to beat us in Game 1.

It ain't gonna happen, but stranger things have happened.
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I will be at the game.

Yelling at the top of my lungs for the Texans.
 
We need the Raiders to win this weekend, but we also should be rooting for KC and the Jets to win.

If we cannot catch the Jags and Colts in the division, then we still have a chance at the wild card. As long as we are tied with multiple teams at 9-7, then we have the tie-breaker over most all of them.

If the Dolphins and Chargers lose this weekend, then we are assured of tying them if we win out.

We would need to have the Ravens lose to the Saints which is quite plausible, then lose one of two to the Bengals and the Browns, which is not as likely yet still possible.

If the Dolphins, Jaguars and Chargers all 3 lose this weekend and we win, then I will feel pretty confident that we make the playoffs assuming we win out. I would say it's better than 50/50 at that point assuming we win out.
 
If "ifs and buts" were candy and nuts, what a wonderful world this would be.

Regardless...

We will see what is an if or but after this weekend.
 
panamamyers said:
If the Dolphins, Jaguars and Chargers all 3 lose this weekend and we win, then I will feel pretty confident that we make the playoffs assuming we win out. I would say it's better than 50/50 at that point assuming we win out.
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I'm not confident in your math regarding your better thsn 50/50 assertion. But if assumed true, and placing the odds of each of these 7 games at even, that means the Texans would have a (.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5) x100% or 0.78% chance at your "better than 50/50" probability. Only Lloyd Christmas could get excited by these odds.

Hoping other teams fall on their face and fail holds little interest to me. The Texans had their chance to win their way into the playoffs. That's gone. And with it went much of the thrill of the 2010 season.
 
Lucky said:
I'm not confident in your math regarding your better thsn 50/50 assertion. But if assumed true, and placing the odds of each of these 7 games at even, that means the Texans would have a (.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5) x100% or 0.78% chance at your "better than 50/50" probability. Only Lloyd Christmas could get excited by these odds.

Hoping other teams fall on their face and fail holds little interest to me. The Texans had their chance to win their way into the playoffs. That's gone. And with it went much of the thrill of the 2010 season.
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dumbanddumber2.jpg


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
 
Lucky said:
I'm not confident in your math regarding your better thsn 50/50 assertion. But if assumed true, and placing the odds of each of these 7 games at even, that means the Texans would have a (.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5) x100% or 0.78% chance at your "better than 50/50" probability. Only Lloyd Christmas could get excited by these odds.

Hoping other teams fall on their face and fail holds little interest to me. The Texans had their chance to win their way into the playoffs. That's gone. And with it went much of the thrill of the 2010 season.
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True, but then again, I can't imagine the Texans running up a 14-2 record and breezing into the playoffs. I think if the Texans are going to become a playoff team in the next year or two, it is going to be in the manner I'm hoping for.

I'm still hoping that we sneak in this year, and as soon as we can't do it then its time for the thrill to dissapear and the pink soap to come out en mass.
 
Lucky said:
I'm not confident in your math regarding your better thsn 50/50 assertion. But if assumed true, and placing the odds of each of these 7 games at even, that means the Texans would have a (.5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5) x100% or 0.78% chance at your "better than 50/50" probability. Only Lloyd Christmas could get excited by these odds.

Hoping other teams fall on their face and fail holds little interest to me. The Texans had their chance to win their way into the playoffs. That's gone. And with it went much of the thrill of the 2010 season.
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Love the Dumb and Dumber reference, but he did say IF we win out. So he wasn't calculating the odds of us winning out, but rather the odds of us making playoffs assuming we had a 9-7 record.

If we wanted to use your calculation as well we could take that .78% chance of winning out and times it by .5 to get our overall chances of playoffs. That would be .39%
 
Alright so it looks like Texans will have to win out.

They will need the Colts to drop one game(I can see the Colts lose to the Raiders if Oak gets a good lead then they can just run it down their throats)

Then they will need Jags to lose to the Colts next week. If that happens then I think, not sure...the Texans should be able to have a win and get in game the very last week against the Jags. Only if they win their next 3 games, Indy drops one to Oakland or Tennessee, and if the Jags lose to Indy next week.
 
This reminds me of the seven stages of grief:

1. shock / denial
2. pain / guilt
3. anger
4. barganing
5. depression
6. testing / reconstruction
7. acceptance

Maybe we need the 7 stages of a Texans' fan season:

1. shock - "no big name acquired in offseason?" "We're going young?"
2. optimism - "well, let's see how the season plays out" "preseason doesn't count"
3. anger - "can't we beat X team already?" "why start so slow"
4. hope - "doing alright early in season, should be able to turn it around"
5. depression - "how the heck have we lost 4 in a row?"
6. testing - "maybe watch another team / do something else on Sunday" "new coach?" "mathematically still in"
7. acceptance - "another season down" "where's our draft pick next year?"
 
OzzO said:
This reminds me of the seven stages of grief:

1. shock / denial
2. pain / guilt
3. anger
4. barganing
5. depression
6. testing / reconstruction
7. acceptance

Maybe we need the 7 stages of a Texans' fan season:

1. shock - "no big name acquired in offseason?" "We're going young?"
2. optimism - "well, let's see how the season plays out" "preseason doesn't count"
3. anger - "can't we beat X team already?" "why start so slow"
4. hope - "doing alright early in season, should be able to turn it around"
5. depression - "how the heck have we lost 4 in a row?"
6. testing - "maybe watch another team / do something else on Sunday" "new coach?" "mathematically still in"
7. acceptance - "another season down" "where's our draft pick next year?"
Click to expand...

Matrix/TK, are you still on step 5 or have you moved on to step 6/7 ?
 
OzzO said:
This reminds me of the seven stages of grief:

1. shock / denial
2. pain / guilt
3. anger
4. barganing
5. depression
6. testing / reconstruction
7. acceptance
Maybe we need the 7 stages of a Texans' fan season:

1. shock - "no big name acquired in offseason?" "We're going young?"
2. optimism - "well, let's see how the season plays out" "preseason doesn't count"
3. anger - "can't we beat X team already?" "why start so slow"
4. hope - "doing alright early in season, should be able to turn it around"
5. depression - "how the heck have we lost 4 in a row?"
6. testing - "maybe watch another team / do something else on Sunday" "new coach?" "mathematically still in"
7. acceptance - "another season down" "where's our draft pick next year?"
Click to expand...

Actually Texans Acceptance can be further delineated:

7. Acceptance
........7A. Resignation
........7B. :choke:
 
fiasco west said:
Alright so it looks like Texans will have to win out.

They will need the Colts to drop one game(I can see the Colts lose to the Raiders if Oak gets a good lead then they can just run it down their throats)

Then they will need Jags to lose to the Colts next week. If that happens then I think, not sure...the Texans should be able to have a win and get in game the very last week against the Jags. Only if they win their next 3 games, Indy drops one to Oakland or Tennessee, and if the Jags lose to Indy next week.
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If we beat Baltimore tomorrow....and that set-up is correct, then honestly, its possible.
 
TheMatrix31 said:
If we beat Baltimore tomorrow....and that set-up is correct, then honestly, its possible.
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yup. tomorrows game is the key. we somehow pull that out & we have games against the tians & broncos, both of whom look to be shutting it down for the yr, before the showdown v the jags...

still cant rly see the colts losing one though (oakland should give em a good game as they match up well on paper)
 
TheMatrix31 said:
If we beat Baltimore tomorrow....and that set-up is correct, then honestly, its possible.
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Just tested it in the playoff simulator and it worked out.

It honestly is very possible if the Texans can get past the Ravens. Indy has not been swept in the division in a long time, so the likelihood of the Jags beating them next week is not great. Especially with Indy at home.

The tough part is the Colts losing another game after that.
 
fiasco west said:
Alright so it looks like Texans will have to win out.

They will need the Colts to drop one game(I can see the Colts lose to the Raiders if Oak gets a good lead then they can just run it down their throats)

Then they will need Jags to lose to the Colts next week. If that happens then I think, not sure...the Texans should be able to have a win and get in game the very last week against the Jags. Only if they win their next 3 games, Indy drops one to Oakland or Tennessee, and if the Jags lose to Indy next week.
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I don't like the Colts losing to the Jags scenario. Then, the Jags will have to lose the remaining two games on their schedule to finish 9-7. The Skins & us. I like our chances, but I don't give the skins a chance in the world to beat Jacksonville.

The Colts losing one game to either the Raiders, or the Titans in week 17. Is more likely.

I'm rooting for the Colts next week.



Sorry, just re-read your post, you're saying the same thing. Jags need to lose next week, we need to win put.
 
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