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Texans In 2006: What Will Our W-L Be?

jerek

jerek

Pro Hobbyist
Once again, we are looking at some tough, tough games on our schedule in 06. However, while I initially reviewed this list and was thinking "my damn, the league hates us" ... on closer review, we have a lot of lemons in this mix as well.

Our 06 opponents, and their 05 W/L:

Buffalo (5-11)
Cleveland (6-10)
Indianapolis x2 (14-2)
Jacksonville x2 (12-4)
Tennessee x2 (4-12)
Philadelphia (6-10)
Washington (10-6)
Dallas (9-7)
Miami (9-7)
NY Giants (11-5)
NY Jets (4-12)
Oakland (4-12)

Making our '05 strength of schedule, coming into '06:

124-112. (.525) (EDIT: I didn't double count our division opponents the first time: this is the correct # and %)

Interesting: so it's not so big and bad after all.

Point: It is speculation, I know, since there are so many variables that remain in this equation, but I would like to talk about something involving this team other than Vince Young or Reggie Bush. So I thought I would pose the question: what are your current expectations for this team in the upcoming season?

Assuming the things that you reasonably expect this franchise to do in the offseason, and feel free to be as detailed as you would like.

***

My fearless prediction: bring in Kubiak, productive offseason, excitement and belief in new leadership, Carr begins to emerge, O-line holds up, defense is revamped, and we go:

9-7.
 
jerek said:
Once again, we are looking at some tough, tough games on our schedule in 06. However, while I initially reviewed this list and was thinking "my damn, the league hates us" ... on closer review, we have a lot of lemons in this mix as well.

Our 06 opponents, and their 05 W/L:

Buffalo (5-11)
Cleveland (6-10)
Indianapolis x2 (14-2)
Jacksonville x2 (12-4)
Tennessee x2 (4-12)
Philadelphia (6-10)
Washington (10-6)
Dallas (9-7)
Miami (9-7)
NY Giants (11-5)
NY Jets (4-12)
Oakland (4-12)

Making our '05 strength of schedule, coming into '06:

94-98. (.490)

Interesting: so it's not so big and bad after all.

Point: It is speculation, I know, since there are so many variables that remain in this equation, but I would like to talk about something involving this team other than Vince Young or Reggie Bush. So I thought I would pose the question: what are your current expectations for this team in the upcoming season?

Assuming the things that you reasonably expect this franchise to do in the offseason, and feel free to be as detailed as you would like.



My fearless prediction: bring in Kubiak, productive offseason, excitement and belief in new leadership, Carr begins to emerge, O-line holds up, defense is revamped, and we go:

9-7.
Click to expand...

Well I figure atleast 1 of the 5 and under win teams will have a break out year and win more than 10 games and atleast 1 of the 10 and over win teams will regress.

With that said I'm not going to set myself up for disapointment like I did last season. I'd be satisfied with 6 to 7 wins.
 
It's far too early to predict what our record for next year will be...We don't know who our coaching staff is going to be, the FA signing period hasn't began yet, and the draft is over three months away...That being said, I'd be happy with 6-10 or 7-9 next year...
 
I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field. But they mixed it up and were always very aggressive. He fumbled and bumbled around and looked completely lost. Guess Pittsburgh watched tape of NE doing this same thing for the last three years running.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.
 
jerek said:
I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.
Click to expand...

This is why, if used properly, the 3-4 is so effective. You can afford to blitz a saftey as long as you have fast linebackers who can cover. The Steerlers and the Pats are very good at seeing the point of attack and plugging the hole up. This was something that our team has NEVER been able to do on a consistant basis. Either our players arent meant for the 3-4 or our coaches didnt put the players in possition to make plays. I'm not sure what the reason is but I'm praying that Kubiak spots it.
 
jerek said:
I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field. But they mixed it up and were always very aggressive. He fumbled and bumbled around and looked completely lost. Guess Pittsburgh watched tape of NE doing this same thing for the last three years running.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.
Click to expand...

And it is nothing against Manning. He is a great quarterback. I love the guy, I love Dungy and what he does with that team, and I think the Colts are exciting to watch. But the old maxim is so, so true; offense wins games, defense wins championships. Pretty much with the exception of the Rams, every recent Super Bowl winner has won the game on the strength and the applied creativity of their D.

I think the 3-4 is a perfectly good defense, I just think Fangio managed to make it useless. I hope Kubiak's guy can right the ship.
 
jerek said:
I think that we can split with Indy next year. This is why:

Peyton Manning looks untouchable against most defenses in this league. And yet year after year, you see a team like the Steelers or the Patriots tear him a new one. Both of these teams have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but it is there playcalling that sets them apart and reduces Manning to the JVer he inevitably plays like in these games.

If you watched Pittsburgh last week, they used a lot of creative first half blitzes. Safety (saw this a lot, or Palomalu showing blitz on almost every play), corner, and a lot of six-man rush. The blitz is of course a high-risk, high-gain play: you risk getting beat one on one or getting out of position to yield a big score, so in the second half, they backed off, played a lot of zone, gave Manning time to throw, and let him nickel and dime them down the field. But they mixed it up and were always very aggressive. He fumbled and bumbled around and looked completely lost. Guess Pittsburgh watched tape of NE doing this same thing for the last three years running.

Is it so unthinkable that we cannot bring in a DC that can employ these same schemes? I refuse to believe Fangio watched tape of our opponent, based on the soft zone coverages he repeatedly threw at Manning and every other good quarterback in this league.

I say we split Indy, sweep Tennessee, and split Jacksonville.
Click to expand...

i think you should read tmq on nfl.com to see what the steelers really did to make manning look ordinary.
also lets get through the draft and FA before opening a thread like this
 
It's not too early to make a prediction. It's never too early to make a prediction. It is too early to make an accurate prediction but hey, nobody said we had to be accurate. There's no penalty for being wrong. With that in mind here's what I think.

Assuming that Kubiak does go on to be our coach.

Assuming that he hires coordinators who are better than the two chimps we had running the show up until now.

Assuming that (in my version at least) we take Bush with the first pick.

Then I think we go anywhere from 8-8 to 10-6. Seriously.

That schedule is no big deal. I see 6 games against teams that absolutely suck. Buffalo, Cleveland, Tennessee (x2), New York (Jets), and Oakland all suck. Sure we suck too but if we proceed with the outlook that we're better than our record and that we're going to get better then I think we beat these teams. These guys are going down and that right there is a 6-10 record all on it's own.

That leaves who?

Well Jacksonville usually plays us poorly so I'm calling a split there. Now all of a sudden we're 7-9 which is equal to our best season so far.

Then there's the Colts. I think we finally split with Indy next season because frankly sooner or later they're going to lay an egg. A split with the Colts brings us to 8-8

That leaves these guys: Philadelphia (6-10), Washington (10-6), Dallas (9-7), Miami (9-7), NY Giants (11-5)

We beat one of these guys and we have a winning season for the first time in our existence. It could happen.
 
I will go with a very optimistic 8-8.

But I only count 15 opponents on that schedule, aren't we missing one? I really like this thread Jerek.

:redtowel:
 
and why do people think the texans are suited to 3-4 when the NT and mlb's are the most important players in that system and guess what? the texans dont have good players at either position
 
I would just like to take a moment to point out the hypocrisy in this.

I asked for opinions, we are after all Texans fans and we are here to talk football.

So it is too early to ballpark how the Texans will perform in '06, and yet it's not too early to predict that:

- Vince Young will redefine the face of the NFL, own the record books, win Super Bowls, and make it to the Hall of Fame?
- Reggie Bush can score a TD everytime he touches the ball on his way to 2,000 all purpose yards in his rookie season?

Tell me which of those three predictions is the least of a stretch?

Unbelievable. If you want to participate, then do so, if not, take your Vince/Reggie mania elsewhere.

Please?
 
Keep in mind that Detroit, not Dallas, gets to play an AFC team on Thanksgiving Day. Unless they change the schedule format or flip-flop broadcasts by Detroit and Dallas (maybe have one of them play the AFC two years in a row), we will NEVER play Dallas on Thanksgiving.
 
Maddict5 said:
i think you should read tmq on nfl.com to see what the steelers really did to make manning look ordinary.
also lets get through the draft and FA before opening a thread like this
Click to expand...

I am not watching the tape, I was not analyzing the game play by play, and I am writing on what I remember of the game. Since TMQ is now the inerrant voice of authority, if I was wrong about what I am recalling of the game, so be it.

As well, he correctly points out the "showing" of the blitz, an effective facet of their gameplan which I have underemphasized. Credit to TMQ on this point, maybe there are others the writer deserves as well.

And yes, Pittsburgh played a great offensive game. Regardless, my point is that the Steelers D is a very well coached and creative use of the 3-4 set, a point which, even through this great article you have referenced, still stands.
 
As a realist, all I can hope for is 6-10 next season. My prediction is based on the fact that there is no way that we can address everything that is wrong with this team in one off-season.

Anything better is icing on the cake. (mmmmmmm....cake) :howdy:
 
Hmmm lets see a:
new coach in his first season as coach
2 new cordinators in their first year as cordinators
a rookie qb or rookie rb expected to save franchise
possibility carr is out of gas
new players and new system for existing players
high expectations
cass still around

I see 4 to 5 wins at best
5 to 7 in the next
8 to 9 in he next
Carr walks as an UFA and the Titans win a SB with VY.
 
I think we can have a record of 7-9 with a very outside shot of 9-7.

We were 2-14, but could have easily been 6-10 or 7-9 this year because of games in which we lost on either the last play or in a drive in the final minutes of the game.
 
TheOgre said:
Keep in mind that Detroit, not Dallas, gets to play an AFC team on Thanksgiving Day. Unless they change the schedule format or flip-flop broadcasts by Detroit and Dallas (maybe have one of them play the AFC two years in a row), we will NEVER play Dallas on Thanksgiving.
Click to expand...



The Cowboys played Denver this year on Thanksgiving. AFC team. I think it's flipped every year so next year it will be an NFC opponent. But they do play AFC teams on Thanksgiving.
 
I see a lot of optimism in this thread, which is good. Early predictions of 8-8 or 9-7 warm my heart. To further add to the question ---

If the Texans enter next season with the same offensive line, what are your predictions?

Pitts - LT
McKinney - LG
Hodgdon - C
Wiegert - RG
Wade - RT
 
I am usually pretty optimistic, but I cannot give an optimistic prediction. Next year with some changes, but most of the principles in place, could yield a 4-12 squad and smack dab in the Adrian Peterson sweepstakes.
 
Kaiser Toro said:
I am usually pretty optimistic, but I cannot give an optimistic prediction. Next year with some changes, but most of the principles in place, could yield a 4-12 squad and smack dab in the Adrian Peterson sweepstakes.
Click to expand...

At which point we'll be debating passing on Peterson, the next <insert HOFer here> because we already have Bush. Brilliant!!! lol
 
jerek said:
- Reggie Bush can score a TD everytime he touches the ball on his way to 2,000 all purpose yards in his rookie season?
Click to expand...

Um, I don't know how to break this to you man but technically speaking Reggie Bush doesn't need to touch the football in order to score a touchdown. Sometimes he just uses his mind to "will" the football into the endzone and then he just goes there to claim it (at his leisure).

Other times he uses his Jedi-like powers to simply insert a suggestion into our minds that makes us all think he's scored a touchdown when in fact he's in the locker room with a cold drink and watching another game on television. He did this during the Fresno State game and in fact had left the stadium sometime in the second quarter to go on a Whopper run with "The King".
 
eriadoc said:
I see a lot of optimism in this thread, which is good. Early predictions of 8-8 or 9-7 warm my heart. To further add to the question ---

If the Texans enter next season with the same offensive line, what are your predictions?

Pitts - LT
McKinney - LG
Hodgdon - C
Wiegert - RG
Wade - RT
Click to expand...

Not sure. We had injuries and ineptitude. Were these guys that bad, or was it their coaching partly to blame?

I think Kubiak improves them, just not sure how much he can. I hope we address the O-line in a big way this offseason, be it through FA or draft. I like Pitts, I think Wiegert does the job, and Hodgdon seemed like he was getting it done. Wade and McKinney, I'm not sure about, but I'd need to watch more of the O-line tape to make a real call on that any way.
 
Realistically, I think with the new staff and the addition of Reggie and a few other key rookie/free agent pick ups, here's the way I see 2006:
No particular order of how games will be played.

HOME:
Buffalo-revenge from last year's season opening debacle(1-0)
Miami-I think Coach Saban may have our number and a lot of others this year(1-1)
Philly-we can beat them with or without TO and Mcnabb(2-1)
Washington-the 'Skins are a weird team, we may sneak one in on them here(3-1)
AFC North 4th place team-Cleveland-more revenge from the debacle that ultimately paved the way for '05's mess.(4-1)
Tenn-back to owning these guys(5-1)
Indy-If our new staff can watch the tapes of what SD and Pitt did, we may finally beat them(6-1)
Jax-We hate these guys(7-1)

Away
NE-well, I think Brady and company will be on a mission in '06(7-2)
NYJ-we can beat these guys even at Giants stadium!(8-2)
Dallas-well, we've done it before but this is another tossup like the Skins game(8-3)
NYG-we freak out and think Eli is Peyton(8-4)
AFC west 4th place-Oak-ROAD WIN!(9-4)
Indy-can't sweep them...can we?(9-5)
Tenn-tough win, but we are better than thee guys(10-5)
Jax-they hate us too(10-6)

Just for fun to possibly look at what really matters this season, W's and L's and 10-6 is very doable in this day and age of the NFL.
 
Love your Battle Red Colored glasses. :redtowel:

Hope they also envision some most excellent key FA acquisitions on the Oline and defense. :)

:texflag:
 
eriadoc said:
At which point we'll be debating passing on Peterson, the next <insert HOFer here> because we already have Bush. Brilliant!!! lol
Click to expand...

I do like AP more than Bush. And if we draft Bush I promise I will not push an AP agenda next year, in this forum. :)
 
eriadoc said:
I see a lot of optimism in this thread, which is good. Early predictions of 8-8 or 9-7 warm my heart. To further add to the question ---

If the Texans enter next season with the same offensive line, what are your predictions?

Pitts - LT
McKinney - LG
Hodgdon - C
Wiegert - RG
Wade - RT
Click to expand...

With the personnel we have right now I wouldn't even see that as the starting line-up this would be the way I see it.

Pitts-LT Can't argue there
Wiegert-LG He played better then McKinney when he was healthy, McKinney could back him and Hodgdon
Hodgdon-C
Weary-RG He did ok and I think he has upside.
Wand-RT He did a decent job at LT in the previous yr. and I think he could handle this position well.

Well saying no changes and better coaching with this lineup I think 5-11 to 7-9
 
Kaiser Toro said:
I do like AP more than Bush. And if we draft Bush I promise I will not push an AP agenda next year, in this forum. :)
Click to expand...

I will. AP will end up being a better pro running back than Bush. I think LenDale White will as well.

With our current assembly of linemen, I see us doing no better than 5 or 6 wins.
 
Entirely speculative since we have no idea what the roster will be, but under these scenarios:

1. Carr/Bush/+1 OL/similar defense as '05: 5-11, 6-10

2. Carr/+1 OL/+2-3 solid defensive players: 7-9, 8-8

3. Vince Young/+1 OL/+2-3 defensive players:
Year 1: 5-11, 6-10
Year 2: 8-8, 9-7
Year 3: Playoffs
 
i think chall8 has about the right idea if we pick the rights defensive players then that would be true
 
You have the Texans going from 2-14 to beating Multiple playoff teams including Colts, Redskins, Jags. I personally dont think that is too realistic. I think an 8-8 season would be incredible at this point.
 
i think 6 wins would be good considering all the changes and that the texans have a pretty tough devison
 
Draft: Reggie Bush @ RB, OL, TE, DE

HOME:
Buffalo-we stink, they stink, home team wins (1-0)
Miami-finished the season strong, has good trade bait at RB so they will get better(1-1)
Philly-McNabb comes back in force (1-2)
Washington-Gibbs is a damn good coach and this team will improve next year (1-3)
Cleveland-see Buffalo.(2-3)
Tenn-see Buffalo(3-3)
Indy-LOL, Its the Colts do I need to say more (3-4)
Jax-We used to be on the same level as these guys, not any more (3-5)

Away
NE-see Indy(3-6)
NYJ-see buffalo(3-7)
Dallas-Bill's teams win games they are supposed to win (3-8)
NYG-Tiki, need I say more (3-9)
Oak-ROAD WIN! Al, its time to retire. (4-9)
Indy-see previous (4-10)
Tenn-same (4-11)
Jax-same (4-12)

We always have an "Oh my God" win so I will go with 5-11.

By the end of next year, we will still have too many holes in personel, Reggie will be a good player but no savior of the franchise, we will realize that Carr still stinks, and that we should have drafted VY when we had the chance.
 
This is what I think will happen, just my thought right now and will probably change as the new season comes around, depending on what happens...
Home
Bills (1-0)
Browns (2-0)
Colts (2-1)
Jaguars (3-1)
Dolphins (3-2)
Eagles (4-2)
Titans (5-2)
Redskins (5-3)


Away
Cowboys (5-4)
Colts (5-5)
Jaguars (5-6)
Patriots (5-7)
Giants (5-8)
Jets (6-8)
Raiders (7-8)
Titans (8-8)
 
Home: Buffalo, Cleveland, Indy, Jacksonville, Miami, Philly, the Oilers, and Washington

Away: Dallas (we'd better win this damn game), Indy, Jacksonville, New England, The Giants, The Jets, The Raiders, and the Oilers.

anyone willing to make any predictions?

i'm guessing we'll go 6 - 10. that was an arbitrary number, by the way. If i were to take an educated guess, i'd say maybe 4 -12
 
I am not into trying to predict actual win/loss records, but we see all the time posts about the Texans and every other team for the next season that are basically built on the presumption that teams only incrementally change each year. Seems to me that isn't really all that realistic. Last year in the NFL, only 9 teams of 32 had records which were plus or minus 2 from the season before. Half the teams in the league had changes of plus or minus 4 games or greater. As many teams had changes of plus or minus 5 games as had changes of 2 games or less. Heck, the Texans can't drop by more than 2 games and certainly have room to improve by 5 or more. Just a thought--the NFL is more volatile than often thought.
 
infantrycak said:
I am not into trying to predict actual win/loss records, but we see all the time posts about the Texans and every other team for the next season that are basically built on the presumption that teams only incrementally change each year. Seems to me that isn't really all that realistic. Last year in the NFL, only 9 teams of 32 had records which were plus or minus 2 from the season before. Half the teams in the league had changes of plus or minus 4 games or greater. As many teams had changes of plus or minus 5 games as had changes of 2 games or less. Heck, the Texans can't drop by more than 2 games and certainly have room to improve by 5 or more. Just a thought--the NFL is more volatile than often thought.
Click to expand...

-2 and 18 :brickwall
 
infantrycak said:
Last year in the NFL, only 9 teams of 32 had records which were plus or minus 2 from the season before. Half the teams in the league had changes of plus or minus 4 games or greater. As many teams had changes of plus or minus 5 games as had changes of 2 games or less.

Just a thought--the NFL is more volatile than often thought.
Click to expand...


Five of the teams in the NFC play-offs weren't there the year before. The only team to return was Seattle. So like infantrycak, I think there is a likelihood that several bottom feeders this year will have drastic changes in the win-loss ratio. I am not ready to say after four years of misery that the Texans are going to be there, but I expect them to at least be a mediocre team, meaning in the 7- to 9- win ratio.
 
well, I got burned predicting the Texan's W-L last year. I really thought this was the year and have thought for a while that the Texans had better talent than Dallas.

I thought the Texans would go 10-6 this year. :(

I also thought Dallas would go 8-8.


for '06 Texans win minimum 8 games. The talent level on the team is much better than the record they posted.

dallas will go 8-8 due largely to Parcells being too old and crusty to run a modern NFL offense.
 
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