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Texans compensatory picks 2014.

ArlingtonTexan said:
The NFL makes compensatory picks convoluted w/o any real reason for both teams and fans, but given this is season for hardcore or even 'nerd' fans, I don't get people who want to waste everyone's time posting what they "believe' versus at learning something about the process.
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ArlingtonTexan said:
The guy in the link I posted CLAIMS that his guesstimation is based on the work of AdamJT...and no Adam was just a geek who started to notice patterns and tried to apply what he noticed.

Still really no reason for the NFL not make it more direct than it does.
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I can definitely see reasons why the NFL wouldn't want the teams fully understanding the methodology. Teams cutting players by certain dates, not starting them all 16 games / pulling them in games already decided, veterans negotiating weird back-loaded contracts, etc. It's harder to "massage the numbers" if you don't know what you're aiming for.

Hell, maybe I'm naïve and the only ones who don't know are the fans.
 
disaacks3 said:
I can definitely see reasons why the NFL wouldn't want the teams fully understanding the methodology. Teams cutting players by certain dates, not starting them all 16 games / pulling them in games already decided, veterans negotiating weird back-loaded contracts, etc. It's harder to "massage the numbers" if you don't know what you're aiming for.

Hell, maybe I'm naïve and the only ones who don't know are the fans.
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Not naïve, just spot on.
 
disaacks3 said:
Hell, maybe I'm naïve and the only ones who don't know are the fans.
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I remember AdamJT13 had a blog piece on how NFL GMs were frustrated by the formula. Ted Thompson, Packer GM, said he gave up trying to figure it out. The real issue is the players making low salaries near the minimum. Sometimes they count, sometimes not. And that has a ripple effect because the formula is based on net losses as the most important factor and not total value.

I think the formula is flawed in that respect. Go back to the Texans losing Dunta in 2010. Yes, the signed Wade Smith and Neil Rackers, which eliminated the Texans from receiving a compensatory pick. But had the formula been based off of total contract value, the Texans lost more in Robinson than gained in Smith and Rackers and likely deserved a pick.
 
My head is spinning from reading this thread. I'm just going to believe we are getting a 4th, 5th and 7th. WOOHOO!!!!
 
mussop said:
My head is spinning from reading this thread. I'm just going to believe we are getting a 4th, 5th and 7th. WOOHOO!!!!
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We are likely to also get a supplemental compensatory pick. Every year, the league awards 32 compensatory picks, first by free agent losses to teams, awarded at the end of rounds. Many years, the number awarded is less than 32, so the league starts with that year's draft order and awards picks until it totals 32.

For example, the year we got the Mr. Irrelevant pick (Cheta Ozwagaloogey), the Texans were picking 11th overall. The league only gave out 21 compensatory picks that year, so at the end of the draft, they added 11 picks in the order of the 1st round.

Not that it's a huge deal, but a late 7th is a good spot to pick a project guy or special teams players. So I'm thinking we will get 4 picks, 3 compensatory picks and 1 supplemental.
 
Are the draft compensatory picks announced at the Combine that begins in a few days? If not when are they announced? I'm hoping for the best but will be surprised if we get anything more than a single 6th round pick. Alot of these picks seem to be completely random and depend on if Goodell likes you or not.
 
I don't know how many compensatory picks the Texans will get, if any, but I hope they do a better job using those picks than they did last year. It's sickening to think that the highest compensatory pick they ever had (3rd rounder for Mario) was wasted on Sam Montgomery. I've said it before, the loss of FA's the last 2 years and the Texans inability to replace those losses is one of the biggest factors in their demise this past season. You have to have depth if you want to survive the injuries that come with a long NFL season.
 
Insideop said:
I don't know how many compensatory picks the Texans will get, if any, but I hope they do a better job using those picks than they did last year. It's sickening to think that the highest compensatory pick they ever had (3rd rounder for Mario) was wasted on Sam Montgomery.
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It was the 95th pick in the draft. History shows that you're more likely to get a Sam Montgomery there than a contributor. The Texans need to draft better overall. The last few drafts have been particulary weak. Take away JJ Watt in 2011, and it's easier to see why the Texans slipped in 2013 from looking at these drafts. Needless to say, this is a very important draft for this franchise.
 
Lucky said:
It was the 95th pick in the draft. History shows that you're more likely to get a Sam Montgomery there than a contributor. The Texans need to draft better overall. The last few drafts have been particulary weak. Take away JJ Watt in 2011, and it's easier to see why the Texans slipped in 2013 from looking at these drafts. Needless to say, this is a very important draft for this franchise.
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Yep, pretty much every attempt in the two to three drafts to fill some need has pretty much flopped (or is no better than neutral). In most positions, the Texans did have a plan pretty much on every current weakness and in a couple cases have invested pretty well in picks (see OLb) or money (see safety).
 
ArlingtonTexan said:
Yep, pretty much every attempt in the two to three drafts to fill some need has pretty much flopped (or is no better than neutral). In most positions, the Texans did have a plan pretty much on every current weakness and in a couple cases have invested pretty well in picks (see OLb) or money (see safety).
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A crappy plan if an injured Ed Reed and a lazy Montgomery are the plan.

I can garuntee you that if a franchise misses more than it hits on top 100 picks that franchise will have a losing record. Franchises that hit on those picks are usually playoff teams. I mean Seattles secondary was built on picks after 100. Sherman/Browner/Chancellor/Maxwell.
 
steelbtexan said:
A crappy plan if an injured Ed Reed and a lazy Montgomery are the plan.

I can garuntee you that if a franchise misses more than it hits on top 100 picks that franchise will have a losing record. Franchises that hit on those picks are usually playoff teams. I mean Seattles secondary was built on picks after 100. Sherman/Browner/Chancellor/Maxwell.
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Well, duh...and there were plenty people who questioned this approach at the of the signings/draft.
 
steelbtexan said:
A crappy plan if an injured Ed Reed and a lazy Montgomery are the plan.

I can garuntee you that if a franchise misses more than it hits on top 100 picks that franchise will have a losing record. Franchises that hit on those picks are usually playoff teams. I mean Seattles secondary was built on picks after 100. Sherman/Browner/Chancellor/Maxwell.
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Earl Thomas was a 1st round pick, But the Seahawks scheme isn't based on a CB 40 time so that allows them to find guys that fit their scheme late in the draft.
 
Saw this article about the possible compensatory picks for all the eligible NFL teams and they had Houston getting 2 extra 5th rounders. I was hoping for a 4th but I guess the 2 in the 5th is not too bad. Make sure you scroll down to the section that shows who each team lost and what they gained. It'll help with how they came to their conclusions. Here's the link. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...VBTpL5f-sKQLB9w&bvm=bv.61965928,d.b2I&cad=rja

If that's the way it turns out who do you hope the Texans get with those 2 extra picks?
 
Insideop said:
Saw this article about the possible compensatory picks for all the eligible NFL teams and they had Houston getting 2 extra 5th rounders. I was hoping for a 4th but I guess the 2 in the 5th is not too bad. Make sure you scroll down to the section that shows who each team lost and what they gained. It'll help with how they came to their conclusions. Here's the link. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCkQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.philly.com%2Fphilly%2Fblogs%2Fred_zone%2F2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html&ei=cukTU_SCCsWX2QXyuoCYBQ&usg=AFQjCNG94L1kw194CgLVBTpL5f-sKQLB9w&bvm=bv.61965928,d.b2I&cad=rja

If that's the way it turns out who do you hope the Texans get with those 2 extra picks?
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Houston
Lost: Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)
Signed: Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...ory-pick-projections.html#RSJiJmCidMpQ6qp7.99​

Lost:
Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)
Signed:
Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)

So Reed cancels out Quin and Lechler / Jones cancel out Forsett, Ball, and D. Jones. That leaves Casey and Barwin unaccounted for...

Two picks sounds about right.

​
 
ObsiWan said:
Houston
Lost: Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)
Signed: Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)
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​
Last year, Atlanta received a 4th round pick (pick #133) as compensation for Curtis Lofton. Lofton had signed a contract with the Saints that averaged $5.5 million/year. Barwin received a contract from the Eagles that averaged $6 million/year. So why would Barwin only be valued at a 5th compensation? I think the Texans get a 4th for Barwin and a 5th for Quin.
 
Lucky said:
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Last year, Atlanta received a 4th round pick (pick #133) as compensation for Curtis Lofton. Lofton had signed a contract with the Saints that averaged $5.5 million/year. Barwin received a contract from the Eagles that averaged $6 million/year. So why would Barwin only be valued at a 5th compensation? I think the Texans get a 4th for Barwin and a 5th for Quin.
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Depends on who was signed.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
The value of comp picks I believe is based on a formula relating to free agents signed minus free agents lost. Based on size of contract and maybe playing time even.
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Yes. The Texan lost a net 2 free agents.

Lost:
Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)
Signed:
Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)

Casey, Quin, and Reed would carry 5th round compensation. So Reed would cancel out Casey. Lechler and Greg Jones would cancel out Forsett and Ball. The blog would imply that Donnie Jones contract would not qualify for compensation. That leaves Barwin (4th) and Quin (5th) as the net plus 2 FAs in my estimation.
 
ObsiWan said:
Houston
Lost: Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)
Signed: Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/...ory-pick-projections.html#RSJiJmCidMpQ6qp7.99​

Lost:
Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)
Signed:
Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)

So Reed cancels out Quin and Lechler / Jones cancel out Forsett, Ball, and D. Jones. That leaves Casey and Barwin unaccounted for...

Two picks sounds about right.

​
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That blog you linked actually says that the Texans would be eligible for a 7th net loss pick, but since there are more than 32 projected compensatory picks, the Texans will miss the cutoff. That may be the case, but just wanted to point out that Houston should qualify for a 7th as well.
 
Lucky said:
Yes. The Texan lost a net 2 free agents.

Lost:
Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)
Signed:
Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)

Casey, Quin, and Reed would carry 5th round compensation. So Reed would cancel out Casey. Lechler and Greg Jones would cancel out Forsett and Ball. The blog would imply that Donnie Jones contract would not qualify for compensation. That leaves Barwin (4th) and Quin (5th) as the net plus 2 FAs in my estimation.
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Man it just gets me that Quin only got 4.7 and Reed was signed for 5 mil.

Thanks Slick Rick
 
steelbtexan said:
Man it just gets me that Quin only got 4.7 and Reed was signed for 5 mil.

Thanks Slick Rick
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Yep. We let a 27-year old above average starter walk and signed a 36-year old on the down side of his career. For more money. He also had an injury that we apparently were not aware of and missed the entire offseason and preseason programs. What a botch of a move. I'll never understand that one.
 
WolverineFan said:
Yep. We let a 27-year old above average starter walk and signed a 36-year old on the down side of his career. For more money. He also had an injury that we apparently were not aware of and missed the entire offseason and preseason programs. What a botch of a move. I'll never understand that one.
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The crazy thing about all that is that Quin's contract makes him cheaper than 4.7m APY. The total deal is worth 23.5 million over 5 years, but the team can cut him after year 3 is complete for a total cost of 13.75 million, or 4.583m a year. Whereas the Texans gave Ed Reed 3 years 15 million total, and ended up paying him a little over 5 million for his 1 year of service.

http://www.overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Glover%20Quin&Position=S&Team=Lions
 
Dutchrudder said:
The crazy thing about all that is that Quin's contract makes him cheaper than 4.7m APY. The total deal is worth 23.5 million over 5 years, but the team can cut him after year 3 is complete for a total cost of 13.75 million, or 4.583m a year. Whereas the Texans gave Ed Reed 3 years 15 million total, and ended up paying him a little over 5 million for his 1 year of service.

http://www.overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Glover%20Quin&Position=S&Team=Lions
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Just completely ridiculous. That kind of move screams incompetence to me.
 
WolverineFan said:
Just completely ridiculous. That kind of move screams incompetence to me.
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That move screamed they believed they really were 1 player away and took a huge gamble on experience/leadership which failed miserably. Turns out sometimes age means stuck in his ways and he was counterproductive on and off the field.
 
kiwitexansfan said:
The value of comp picks I believe is based on a formula relating to free agents signed minus free agents lost. Based on size of contract and maybe playing time even.
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It is a complicated formula that not even NFL GMs know or understand. Your comments are on the right track. In addition, the formula also includes when the lost FA was drafted, playing time, what individual awards they achieved, new contract value, etc. Comp picks in the past have usually been announced at the league's annual meeting, March 23-26 this year.
 
infantrycak said:
That move screamed they believed they really were 1 player away and took a huge gamble on experience/leadership which failed miserably. Turns out sometimes age means stuck in his ways and he was counterproductive on and off the field.
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Even if that was the case, Quin certainly wasn't the "one player" they needed to upgrade to become a contender. Anyone with half a brain could figure out our biggest weaknesses on defense were OLB, ILB and DT.
 
Dutchrudder said:
Even if that was the case, Quin certainly wasn't the "one player" they needed to upgrade to become a contender. Anyone with half a brain could figure out our biggest weaknesses on defense were OLB, ILB and DT.
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I don't think the on field play was the focus of signing Reed. I think they hoped he would be close to the same level as Quin on the field but they believed the team lacked experience and focus to get over the hump in the playoffs and that is where they became fascinated with Reed.

I'm criticizing them just as much for the signing as you. I just think the greater failing was not his health but research on how helpful he would be in the clubhouse. Handswarmer warned he wouldn't be the locker room guy they were shooting for.
 
WolverineFan said:
Yep. We let a 27-year old above average starter walk and signed a 36-year old on the down side of his career. For more money. He also had an injury that we apparently were not aware of and missed the entire offseason and preseason programs. What a botch of a move. I'll never understand that one.
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I was so against not resigning Quin, he was extremely valuable in our defense. I don't think that move can be blamed on Kubiak. I'm looking at you Rick Smith.
 
TexansSeminole said:
I was so against not resigning Quin, he was extremely valuable in our defense. I don't think that love can be blamed on Kubiak. I'm look at you Rick Smith.
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If I had to put money down it would be on McNair.

Wade clearly wasn't on board. I don't think Kubiak would overrule Wade on this.

Not firing Smith may be McNair saying "my bad" on Reed.
 
infantrycak said:
If I had to put money down it would be on McNair.

Wade clearly wasn't on board. I don't think Kubiak would overrule Wade on this.

Not firing Smith may be McNair saying "my bad" on Reed.
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I just don't want it to happen again, whoever is to blame. That was such a bad idea.

I definitely need to learn how to type better on my phone.
 
infantrycak said:
If I had to put money down it would be on McNair.

Wade clearly wasn't on board. I don't think Kubiak would overrule Wade on this.

Not firing Smith may be McNair saying "my bad" on Reed.
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So this means Johnny Football is likely to be chosen 1-1?
 
TexansSeminole said:
I was so against not resigning Quin, he was extremely valuable in our defense. I don't think that move can be blamed on Kubiak. I'm looking at you Rick Smith.
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infantrycak said:
If I had to put money down it would be on McNair.

Wade clearly wasn't on board. I don't think Kubiak would overrule Wade on this.

Not firing Smith may be McNair saying "my bad" on Reed.
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I'd be willing to front that bet. From everything I heard McNair say, he was convinced Ed Reed's experience to put us over the top.

I think McNair made a "command decision" and Rick Smith followed orders. Who knows if Wade or Rick tried to talk him (Uncle Bob) out of it or just saluted then executed.
 
ObsiWan said:
I'd be willing to front that bet. From everything I heard McNair say, he was convinced Ed Reed's experience to put us over the top.

I think McNair made a "command decision" and Rick Smith followed orders. Who knows if Wade or Rick tried to talk him (Uncle Bob) out of it or just saluted then executed.
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and why Bob sent his jet to pick him up.
 
Sorry, not yet, but I've been reading Tweets all day saying they should be revealed soon. I've been checking in on Twitter all day and still nada. Hopefully soon


Tania Ganguli @taniaganguli
Good morning from NFL meetings. For those who've been asking, we should know who gets compensatory picks later today. #Texans
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Andrew Brandt @adbrandt
Today is the annual NFL ritual of teams complaining about what they received as compensatory draft picks..
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HOU-TEX said:
Well, I did start off by saying sorry.

And, obviously I posted in the wrong forum. So, I's failed all the way around
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Your "sorry" should have been in the title. You got my hopes soaring only to come spinning down to crash to earth.

I'll forgive you this time.

THIS time.
 
The Pencil Neck said:
Your "sorry" should have been in the title. You got my hopes soaring only to come spinning down to crash to earth.

I'll forgive you this time.

THIS time.
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I almost started another similar thread in the Texans Talk section just to yank your chain again.
Reason prevailed, however.
 
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