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Texans #3 pick trade down scenarios

Hottoddie

Veteran
Caserio has already hinted that he could be willing to trade down from the #3 pick prior to the Watson trade. At #3, there should be some stud players still on the board & teams could be clamoring all over themselves to trade up for their guy. So, that raises the question, what trade down scenarios do you see the Texans being approached with?

Chad Reuter recently posted one in his latest mock draft involving Atlanta. In that trade, Atlanta gets the #3 pick & Houston drops back to the #8 pick, gets Atlanta's 2023 #1 pick, 2022 2nd round pick & a 2022 4th round pick. In his mock, he has Detroit taking Mailk Willis at #2, with Carolina positioned at #6 also needing a QB. With Houston's willingness to trade the #3 pick, Atlanta might just be willing to make the move up for their guy (in his mock, he has them taking Kenny Picket). This trade would give us three #1 picks in 2023, two 2nd round picks in 2022, & three 4th round picks in 2022, in addition to the #8 & #13 picks in the first round of the 2022 draft.

I've been thinking Philadelphia (with 3 #1 picks) might want to jump up to #3 to take one of the best defensive players in this year's draft. So, my scenario would be that we trade down from #3 & receive the #15 & #16 picks as well as their 3rd round pick #83. That gives us three #1 picks & three 3rd round picks, in addition to the other picks we already have. We could then trade one of the 1st round picks in exchange for a 2023 #1 pick & whatever additional picks would equal the fair value of a 1st round pick this year. Two mid 1st round contracts total cost could be very close (or less than) to the price of the #3 pick's contract by itself.

What trade down scenarios do y'all think we might see?
 
I posted Friday:
But do Panthers' Tepper stand pat knowing Falcons Blank possibly had out bid Carolina for DW? Would Falcons offer 1.8 +2.43 +2.58 + AJ Terrell for 1.3 and 1.13?

Would Tepper stand pat knowing Malik Willis gone at 2 and Seattle hopefully willing to give 9 +40 +41 for 3?

I want to see a bidding war for 1.3!


Curious, which is better for Houston 6 and 2023 round one or
9 and 40 and 41?
I think sauce Gardner is the best player in the draft so I don't want to miss him but if the trade was sweet enough..

I see him going as low as 9.
 
Caserio has already hinted that he could be willing to trade down from the #3 pick prior to the Watson trade. At #3, there should be some stud players still on the board & teams could be clamoring all over themselves to trade up for their guy. So, that raises the question, what trade down scenarios do you see the Texans being approached with?

Chad Reuter recently posted one in his latest mock draft involving Atlanta. In that trade, Atlanta gets the #3 pick & Houston drops back to the #8 pick, gets Atlanta's 2023 #1 pick, 2022 2nd round pick & a 2022 4th round pick. In his mock, he has Detroit taking Mailk Willis at #2, with Carolina positioned at #6 also needing a QB. With Houston's willingness to trade the #3 pick, Atlanta might just be willing to make the move up for their guy (in his mock, he has them taking Kenny Picket). This trade would give us three #1 picks in 2023, two 2nd round picks in 2022, & three 4th round picks in 2022, in addition to the #8 & #13 picks in the first round of the 2022 draft.

I've been thinking Philadelphia (with 3 #1 picks) might want to jump up to #3 to take one of the best defensive players in this year's draft. So, my scenario would be that we trade down from #3 & receive the #15 & #16 picks as well as their 3rd round pick #83. That gives us three #1 picks & three 3rd round picks, in addition to the other picks we already have. We could then trade one of the 1st round picks in exchange for a 2023 #1 pick & whatever additional picks would equal the fair value of a 1st round pick this year. Two mid 1st round contracts total cost could be very close (or less than) to the price of the #3 pick's contract by itself.

What trade down scenarios do y'all think we might see?
The issue I have with your Eagle scenario is that some mocks have them going defensive linebacker, defensive line and cornerback with the three picks they have now so I do not see them trading up for a defensive player. They can get a very good safety in their second round.
 
I posted Friday:

I think sauce Gardner is the best player in the draft so I don't want to miss him but if the trade was sweet enough..

I see him going as low as 9.
Responding to the last part of your quote, I'd feel better if we got the #6 pick & a 2023 1st round pick for the #3 pick, instead of the #9, 40 & 41 picks for this year. The Texans are at least one more year away from being competitive & loading up on 1st round picks for 2023 would keep the rebuild momentum going. And, if Mills doesn't work out as our Franchise QB, there's another young phenom coming up by the name of Arch Manning in the next couple of years. Having a boatload of 1st round picks could go a long way towards securing his services. But, I'm really hoping Mills works out & I like what I've seen thus far.
 
The issue I have with your Eagle scenario is that some mocks have them going defensive linebacker, defensive line and cornerback with the three picks they have now so I do not see them trading up for a defensive player. They can get a very good safety in their second round.
As we all know by now, mocks are just educated guesses. The problem I see with any team drafting three 1st round picks is the cost & having to renew their contracts at the same time. I'm not saying they'd even consider my scenario or trade any of their 1st round picks, but with #3 & their #19 pick they would still be able to get two players, with one of them being a possible game changing stud.
 
Carolina #6 and 2023 1st RD pick; for #3

Atlanta #8 and #43 and 2023 1st RD draft pick; Texans trade #3 and #108 to ATL.

Seattle #9 and #40 and #41; Texans trade #3.

Seattle #9 and #40 and 2023 1st RD draft pick; Texans trade #3 and #108 to SEA.

New Orleans #18 and #49 and 2023 1st RD pick; Texans trade #3

New Orleans #18 and #49; Texans #13 and #108.

Pittsburgh #20, #52 and 2023 1st RD draft pick. Texans trade #3

Pittsburgh #20 and #52; for Texans #13.
 
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I would not mind adding Bradberry as a trade down package.

Bradberry plus a day 2 pick to move down to 5. Giants lock in on their guy Sauce Gardner. Texans “settle” for Hamilton and gain a bonafide #1 CB?! Secondary would be much improved! And Texans will be flushed with cap space next offseason to sign Bradberry to an extension.
 
Caserio has already hinted that he could be willing to trade down from the #3 pick prior to the Watson trade. At #3, there should be some stud players still on the board & teams could be clamoring all over themselves to trade up for their guy. So, that raises the question, what trade down scenarios do you see the Texans being approached with?

Chad Reuter recently posted one in his latest mock draft involving Atlanta. In that trade, Atlanta gets the #3 pick & Houston drops back to the #8 pick, gets Atlanta's 2023 #1 pick, 2022 2nd round pick & a 2022 4th round pick. In his mock, he has Detroit taking Mailk Willis at #2, with Carolina positioned at #6 also needing a QB. With Houston's willingness to trade the #3 pick, Atlanta might just be willing to make the move up for their guy (in his mock, he has them taking Kenny Picket). This trade would give us three #1 picks in 2023, two 2nd round picks in 2022, & three 4th round picks in 2022, in addition to the #8 & #13 picks in the first round of the 2022 draft.

I've been thinking Philadelphia (with 3 #1 picks) might want to jump up to #3 to take one of the best defensive players in this year's draft. So, my scenario would be that we trade down from #3 & receive the #15 & #16 picks as well as their 3rd round pick #83. That gives us three #1 picks & three 3rd round picks, in addition to the other picks we already have. We could then trade one of the 1st round picks in exchange for a 2023 #1 pick & whatever additional picks would equal the fair value of a 1st round pick this year. Two mid 1st round contracts total cost could be very close (or less than) to the price of the #3 pick's contract by itself.

What trade down scenarios do y'all think we might see?

I could see the Atlanta scenario playing out.

I could also see a team like the Steelers or Saints trading up to 13 for their QB.
 
I think the Texans 3rd pick could become very desirable based on who goes 1 and 2. I don’t think Caserio has to think “unprecedented” in term to how many times he trades back. He has 2 picks that could be put into play if targeted players are still on their board when those picks roll around.

If the Texans want to make a big impact for their rebuild….they need more RD2 picks.
 
I think the Texans 3rd pick could become very desirable based on who goes 1 and 2. I don’t think Caserio has to think “unprecedented” in term to how many times he trades back. He has 2 picks that could be put into play if targeted players are still on their board when those picks roll around.

If the Texans want to make a big impact for their rebuild….they need more RD2 picks.

In this draft I agree with you.

In general give me 2 great players over multiple later Rd picks.
 
In this draft I agree with you.

In general give me 2 great players over multiple later Rd picks.
Agree, which is why Texans must go with "safe" bets and to me that means consistent, consensus high grades - especially in the top 5.
This leaves us with these options:-
Kyle Hamilton.
Evan Neal.
Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Aiden Hutchinson.
Ahmed Gardner.
Derek Stingley would definitely be high in this group but his injury history hurts him big time.
Jordan Davis falls into the "safe bet" category and could go to Texans at #3, but I lean more towards the top 5 mentioned above.
 

I would not mind adding Bradberry as a trade down package.

Bradberry plus a day 2 pick to move down to 5. Giants lock in on their guy Sauce Gardner. Texans “settle” for Hamilton and gain a bonafide #1 CB?! Secondary would be much improved! And Texans will be flushed with cap space next offseason to sign Bradberry to an extension.
This would be a horrible trade. The Giants and Texans are in the exact same spot. Rebuilding and nowhere near ready to compete. No reason for either team to pay good money for an OK CB (for only one year, to boot). The Giants realize that. I hope the Texans do, as well.
 
Carolina #6 and 2023 1st RD pick; for #3

Atlanta #8 and #43 and 2023 1st RD draft pick; Texans trade #3 and #108 to ATL.

Seattle #9 and #40 and #41; Texans trade #3.

Seattle #9 and #40 and 2023 1st RD draft pick; Texans trade #3 and #108 to SEA.

New Orleans #18 and #49 and 2023 1st RD pick; Texans trade #3

New Orleans #18 and #49; Texans #13 and #108.

Pittsburgh #20, #52 and 2023 1st RD draft pick. Texans trade #3

Pittsburgh #20 and #52; for Texans #13.
I could see the Atlanta scenario playing out.
I don't see one of these scenarios playing out. It's the opposite. Teams that may want these QBs will try to move back and minimize their risk. This draft has less than 10 premier prospects. I can see some teams outside the top 10 with excess draft capital trying to move up for a top OT or Edge. And that's where a team like the Panthers (that doesn't have a 2nd day pick) may move back where the QBs may have value. I could see the Eagles (a team that emphasizes traits) making a big jump to grab a Walker or Thibodeaux.
 
I don't see one of these scenarios playing out. It's the opposite. Teams that may want these QBs will try to move back and minimize their risk. This draft has less than 10 premier prospects. I can see some teams outside the top 10 with excess draft capital trying to move up for a top OT or Edge. And that's where a team like the Panthers (that doesn't have a 2nd day pick) may move back where the QBs may have value. I could see the Eagles (a team that emphasizes traits) making a big jump to grab a Walker or Thibodeaux.
If Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields can go #2, #3 and #11 there is really no reason why Corral, Pickett and Willis couldn't do the same. Wilson had a good year, Lance only played in a handful of games and Fields was so so. Some argue that Pickett had better numbers than Wilson, Willis is better than Lance and Corral had a better year than Fields. Shanahan had a bad case of FOMO.

IMO I think Seattle moving up to #3 (for WCO - Corral) would give Texans best return with #9, #40 and #41.
 
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If Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields can go #2, #3 and #11 there is really no reason why Corral, Pickett and Willis couldn't do the same.
Traits. The formers have them in spades. The latters don't.
 
I don't see one of these scenarios playing out. It's the opposite. Teams that may want these QBs will try to move back and minimize their risk. This draft has less than 10 premier prospects. I can see some teams outside the top 10 with excess draft capital trying to move up for a top OT or Edge. And that's where a team like the Panthers (that doesn't have a 2nd day pick) may move back where the QBs may have value. I could see the Eagles (a team that emphasizes traits) making a big jump to grab a Walker or Thibodeaux.

I think #13 is more likely to be traded than #3.
 
If Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields can go #2, #3 and #11 there is really no reason why Corral, Pickett and Willis couldn't do the same. Wilson had a good year, Lance only played in a handful of games and Fields was so so. Some argue that Pickett had better numbers than Wilson, Willis is better than Lance and Corral had a better year than Fields. Shanahan had a bad case of FOMO.

IMO I think Seattle moving up to #3 (for WCO - Corral) would give Texans best return with #9, #40 and #41.
I tend to agree.Every year we see QBs going higher than they should and each year, there may or may not be a hot prospect like Lawrence last year. This year there is not, but that doesn't mean the lesser guys won't be selected near the top of the draft or inside the top ten.
I think at least one and probably two, go in the top ten based purely on team needs and the fact that 3 QB needy teams are slotted in the top ten and the value of the QB position.
 
Agree, which is why Texans must go with "safe" bets and to me that means consistent, consensus high grades - especially in the top 5.
This leaves us with these options:-
Kyle Hamilton.
Evan Neal.
Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Aiden Hutchinson.
Ahmed Gardner.
Derek Stingley would definitely be high in this group but his injury history hurts him big time.
Jordan Davis falls into the "safe bet" category and could go to Texans at #3, but I lean more towards the top 5 mentioned above.

I've got Walker in the top 5 too.

Neal
Walker
Sauce

Guys I want at #3.
 
I've got Walker in the top 5 too.

Neal
Walker
Sauce

Guys I want at #3.
There are some DCs out there thinking here is this 3 tech containment DE who was able to get 6 sacks and lead his team in QB pressures. If I could get my hands on him, coach him up, stick him outside as a 5 or 7 tech, turn him lose, pin his ears back and tell him go get the QB, just attack, attack, attack he could be a multiple defensive MVP.
 

I would not mind adding Bradberry as a trade down package.

Bradberry plus a day 2 pick to move down to 5. Giants lock in on their guy Sauce Gardner. Texans “settle” for Hamilton and gain a bonafide #1 CB?! Secondary would be much improved! And Texans will be flushed with cap space next offseason to sign Bradberry to an extension.
He's 29 years old (or will be when the '22 season begins), so he's very likely rapidly headed towards the down-side of his NFL career. IMO not that appealing of a target for NC.
 
Responding to the last part of your quote, I'd feel better if we got the #6 pick & a 2023 1st round pick for the #3 pick, instead of the #9, 40 & 41 picks for this year. The Texans are at least one more year away from being competitive & loading up on 1st round picks for 2023 would keep the rebuild momentum going. And, if Mills doesn't work out as our Franchise QB, there's another young phenom coming up by the name of Arch Manning in the next couple of years. Having a boatload of 1st round picks could go a long way towards securing his services. But, I'm really hoping Mills works out & I like what I've seen thus far.
Good discussion.
1. Sources now indicating that Jets will go Sauce at 4 so if we want & I do....
2. I want a 10 year guy at #3 or a whole bunch of high picks...
3. We have clearer info on who will be there in April '22 than April '23...
4. My projection has us at 1.1 and 1.8 in 2023 so not priority to add round ones...
5. Manning not available until 2025 draft: loosely song from Zager and Evans if god coming he ought to make it by then. Don't want wait that long for QB! lol
 
As we all know by now, mocks are just educated guesses. The problem I see with any team drafting three 1st round picks is the cost & having to renew their contracts at the same time. I'm not saying they'd even consider my scenario or trade any of their 1st round picks, but with #3 & their #19 pick they would still be able to get two players, with one of them being a possible game changing stud.
agree but all three firsts costs Eagles $9 million & they have $22 w/o further cuts/trades so no issue. I enjoy your thoughts.
 
There are some DCs out there thinking here is this 3 tech containment DE who was able to get 6 sacks and lead his team in QB pressures. If I could get my hands on him, coach him up, stick him outside as a 5 or 7 tech, turn him lose, pin his ears back and tell him go get the QB, just attack, attack, attack he could be a multiple defensive MVP.

This is what I'm thinking as well.
 
Carolina #6 and 2023 1st RD pick; for #3

Atlanta #8 and #43 and 2023 1st RD draft pick; Texans trade #3 and #108 to ATL.

Seattle #9 and #40 and #41; Texans trade #3.

Seattle #9 and #40 and 2023 1st RD draft pick; Texans trade #3 and #108 to SEA.

New Orleans #18 and #49 and 2023 1st RD pick; Texans trade #3

New Orleans #18 and #49; Texans #13 and #108.

Pittsburgh #20, #52 and 2023 1st RD draft pick. Texans trade #3

Pittsburgh #20 and #52; for Texans #13.
I like several corners but I'm locked into Sauce (need go to AA I guess) so that colors my view a bit as Jets seem to want him at #4. I know can pick up good CBs later but other than McDuffie and Daxton Hill no one comes close for me.

20 & 52 for 13 I would do.
 
This would be a horrible trade. The Giants and Texans are in the exact same spot. Rebuilding and nowhere near ready to compete. No reason for either team to pay good money for an OK CB (for only one year, to boot). The Giants realize that. I hope the Texans do, as well.
Beat me to it at first glance interesting but last year contract and JB 29 YOA and $13m base. No thanks. I'd rather just keep 3 and choose Sauce. NYG interest in him makes me say no to trade unless NYG sweetens deal to take JB off their hands: 5+37+ 67 + Ben Bredeson?
 
My point was these are not my top five, but those consistently in the top 5 on draft boards - and not mock drafts.
If you know of one that has Walker in the top five I would be interested to see it.

 

That's not a draft board, but it does sound like something Jags might do.
I hope they pull that trigger.
 
athleticism is one of the things I look for. One of the things...
Agree.
Here's a comparison between Aiden Hutchinson and Travon Walker:
AH 40 :4.74. cone: 6.73. shuttle 4.15 ras 9.86
TW 40 4.51. cone: 6.89. shuttle 4.32 ras 9.99
Walkers score is boosted by his straight line speed which is not so important on the line.
Hutchinson is more agile which is much more important on the line.
Edit - everybody is welcome to use any stats I post in any post.
 
Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane.
Check his college stats.
I did they were just like JJ Watt's and Thibodeaux's, their last season in college they had 7 sacks, Walker had 6. Watt and Walker are respectable numbers for a 3 technique 3-4 containment DE. Thibodeaux's are disappointing for a 4-3 5-7 technique attack the QB DE.
 
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I don't see one of these scenarios playing out. It's the opposite. Teams that may want these QBs will try to move back and minimize their risk. This draft has less than 10 premier prospects. I can see some teams outside the top 10 with excess draft capital trying to move up for a top OT or Edge. And that's where a team like the Panthers (that doesn't have a 2nd day pick) may move back where the QBs may have value. I could see the Eagles (a team that emphasizes traits) making a big jump to grab a Walker or Thibodeaux.
I kinda am leaning this way too.
I just don’t see teams moving up for these QBs. I think the QB needy team will sit and let the QB come to them and I don’t even see many going in the 1st. They will wait till the 2nd and if he’s there depending on who else is or isn’t there they might take a QB.
 
They're both athletic freaks. No one can honestly dispute that.
DeVonte Wyatt also tested off the charts. Not to mention all the other solid performances by Geogia players at the Combine. I'm beginning to think the MVP of all these great performances might be Scott Sinclair, Director of Strength and Conditioning at the Univ of Georgia. If Lovie hired this guy, Cal paid him twice what he is making, this would be the Texans best off season move.
 
DeVonte Wyatt also tested off the charts. Not to mention all the other solid performances by Geogia players at the Combine. I'm beginning to think the MVP of all these great performances might be Scott Sinclair, Director of Strength and Conditioning at the Univ of Georgia. If Lovie hired this guy, Cal paid him twice what he is making, this would be the Texans best off season move.
I’d be on board with this hire!
 
I think #13 is more likely to be traded than #3.
They could possibly trade #13, but the Texans (considering how far we have to go) could pick up a solid starter at 13. That's why I believe keeping #13 & trading #3 is the best move. If I'm taking a player at #3, then I'm going with the players that have the longest playing careers. Like OT's for example. Many of them can play for 10-15 years. But, I still believe we can get more value out of the #3 by trading it for more picks, which should allow us to more quickly build a much more solid foundation for the future. If we draft a single player that plays 8-10 years, then it will take longer to fill all the other holes on the team & the stud we drafted at #3 will be getting towards the end of his career. A perfect example is JJ. He played lights out for five years & then injuries started setting in. Don't get me wrong, JJ is still a stud, but injuries are taking their toll on him.
 
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