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SteelB, I have a question about a scenerio for you

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
SteelB, you're adamant about the % of cap a qb takes up which prevents a team from winning a title. You think Mills is a franchise qb, which we disagree on, but lets say he is. Lets say he's in the MVP conversation year 3 like Derek Carr was who was a 2nd rd pick. Now, gauging by the qb salaries right now and forecasting Burrow and Herbert upcoming extensions in another year, how can the Texans stay under that percentage you speak of and have a superbowl quality team?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
SteelB, you're adamant about the % of cap a qb takes up which prevents a team from winning a title. You think Mills is a franchise qb, which we disagree on, but lets say he is. Lets say he's in the MVP conversation year 3 like Derek Carr was who was a 2nd rd pick. Now, gauging by the qb salaries right now and forecasting Burrow and Herbert upcoming extensions in another year, how can the Texans stay under that percentage you speak of and have a superbowl quality team?
You can't, that's my point.

You can write the new deal in a way where you can get 2-3 more yrs out of your QB before the cap prohibits you from winning a championship. So right now the Texans have 5-6 yrs to win a championship. At least that's what history says.

Of course with the NFL getting in bed with the gamblers this could change.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
You can't, that's my point.

You can write the new deal in a way where you can get 2-3 more yrs out of your QB before the cap prohibits you from winning a championship. So right now the Texans have 5-6 yrs to win a championship. At least that's what history says.

Of course with the NFL getting in bed with the gamblers this could change.
How do they have 5 or 6 years when Mills contract is up in 3 and the roster isn't anywhere close to even playoff level?
So let me ask you another question. When Manning and Ryan contracts was beyond that threshold you always speak of, but they lost in the superbowl, did the team lose because they couldn't afford good enough players to win it?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
How do they have 5 or 6 years when Mills contract is up in 3 and the roster isn't anywhere close to even playoff level?
So let me ask you another question. When Manning and Ryan contracts was beyond that threshold you always speak of, but they lost in the superbowl, did the team lose because they couldn't afford good enough players to win it?
3 yrs of his current contract and 3yrs on his new contract. It's a big reason teams like to draft QBs in the 1st rd, to get the 5th yr option.

I'm just telling you what history says, you can choose to do with it what you want.
 

maverick512000

Hall of Fame
Oh not this stupid argument again, one side points to the fact that no team has ever won the Superbowl with the QB over a certain cap and the other side takes that as a personal offense and insists that it can be done even though that was NEVER the point. Yep this definitely needed its own thread because at this point we aren't even beating a dead horse we are beating the fossilized bones that paleontologists say once was a horse.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
Oh not this stupid argument again, one side points to the fact that no team has ever won the Superbowl with the QB over a certain cap and the other side takes that as a personal offense and insists that it can be done even though that was NEVER the point. Yep this definitely needed its own thread because at this point we aren't even beating a dead horse we are beating the fossilized bones that paleontologists say once was a horse.
Few more posts and it will be oil..
 

ArmyBengal

Retired Army Medical NCO
I'm actually new to this "argument", but intrigued. Let me play.

While I wouldn't say that a team "Can't" win when a player takes up that kind of cap space, it CERTAINLY has to make it more challenging. You can certainly use my Bengals as a good measuring stick. Look at how much money they have spent in the past 3 seasons building the defense and o-line. METRIC BUTT TONS !!! Now look at what Burrow and Chase make on their rookie deals. 4 yrs/36.1mil and 4 yrs/30.8mil. A combined nearly 67 million for THOSE two ?? Compare that with what Rodgers and D. Adams get paid. 3yrs/150mil and 5yrs/141mil. A combined 291 million.

When it comes time to pay Burrow and Chase, which the Bengals will, where is that increase going to come from ?? Well, I can tell you now that T. Higgins will hit the free agent market and Boyd may or may not come back from the WR corps. Those big time contracts over the past 3 off seasons will be drastically cut. It will require the team to rely heavily on the draft and getting rookies to produce during their rookie contract, along with cheaper veteran players being brought in at a lower number.

It's not to say they can't make it happen at that point, but that was another BIG reason I wanted them to win the Super Bowl last year. That window can open and close quickly. Just my two cents, but certainly nothing I'm concerned in arguing.
 

Texansballer74

The Marine
Oh not this stupid argument again, one side points to the fact that no team has ever won the Superbowl with the QB over a certain cap and the other side takes that as a personal offense and insists that it can be done even though that was NEVER the point. Yep this definitely needed its own thread because at this point we aren't even beating a dead horse we are beating the fossilized bones that paleontologists say once was a horse.
They could’ve did this on the inbox/messenger or whatever you want call it. Lol
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
I was going to offer some input but then reread the thread title and realized that it was a personal message. I always feel a bit uncomfortable when I come upon a couple of Neighbors having a spat in public often at the pool.
not really personal, just really a general question about this so called threshold
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
I'm actually new to this "argument", but intrigued. Let me play.

While I wouldn't say that a team "Can't" win when a player takes up that kind of cap space, it CERTAINLY has to make it more challenging. You can certainly use my Bengals as a good measuring stick. Look at how much money they have spent in the past 3 seasons building the defense and o-line. METRIC BUTT TONS !!! Now look at what Burrow and Chase make on their rookie deals. 4 yrs/36.1mil and 4 yrs/30.8mil. A combined nearly 67 million for THOSE two ?? Compare that with what Rodgers and D. Adams get paid. 3yrs/150mil and 5yrs/141mil. A combined 291 million.

When it comes time to pay Burrow and Chase, which the Bengals will, where is that increase going to come from ?? Well, I can tell you now that T. Higgins will hit the free agent market and Boyd may or may not come back from the WR corps. Those big time contracts over the past 3 off seasons will be drastically cut. It will require the team to rely heavily on the draft and getting rookies to produce during their rookie contract, along with cheaper veteran players being brought in at a lower number.

It's not to say they can't make it happen at that point, but that was another BIG reason I wanted them to win the Super Bowl last year. That window can open and close quickly. Just my two cents, but certainly nothing I'm concerned in arguing.
Thats fair. Me personally, when the stats says this specific %, yet the qb can be the highest paid at his position. In regards to Rodgers, he's been in the conference championship game like 5 times. If you're team is good enough to be one of 4 left out of 32, you have a superbowl quality team. My issue with Green Bay is their boardroom approach never has a sense of urgency. They've never had 2 wr's popping at the same time. The last couple of years, it was downright criminal to only score 10 pts and they still should've won the game. Those are things that had nothing to do with the qb taking 13.9% of the cap, in my opinion.
 

Earl34

All Pro
Thats fair. Me personally, when the stats says this specific %, yet the qb can be the highest paid at his position. In regards to Rodgers, he's been in the conference championship game like 5 times. If you're team is good enough to be one of 4 left out of 32, you have a superbowl quality team. My issue with Green Bay is their boardroom approach never has a sense of urgency. They've never had 2 wr's popping at the same time. The last couple of years, it was downright criminal to only score 10 pts and they still should've won the game. Those are things that had nothing to do with the qb taking 13.9% of the cap, in my opinion.
In the next couple of years, the QB taking 13.9% of the cap will become the new normal and that will mean that teams with competent GMs and front office personnel will become more important than ever. They will have to draft well, sign veteran players and surround that high paid QB with complementary pieces. These GMs and front office personnel cannot constantly make mistakes like the Mercilus, Cobb, Murray, and Cunningham contracts that we saw during the O'Brien and Easterby era.

One example of the salary cap maneuvers that will be required from GMs and their staffs are the Saints during the Brees/Payton era. The Saints are always suppose to be in cap purgatory, but they consistently were able to field a team around Brees while navigating the salary cap. That will be the norm.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
In the next couple of years, the QB taking 13.9% of the cap will become the new normal and that will mean that teams with competent GMs and front office personnel will become more important than ever. They will have to draft well, sign veteran players and surround that high paid QB with complementary pieces. These GMs and front office personnel cannot constantly make mistakes like the Mercilus, Cobb, Murray, and Cunningham contracts that we saw during the O'Brien and Easterby era.

One example of the salary cap maneuvers that will be required from GMs and their staffs are the Saints during the Brees/Payton era. The Saints are always suppose to be in cap purgatory, but they consistently were able to field a team around Brees while navigating the salary cap. That will be the norm.
Whitney and Cunningham were good draft picks. Whitney 1st extension was cool,but his 2nd one didn't make sense. This league is always about management who can draft well and supplement even with a top shelf qb. When you have a top flight qb, he should be able to make wr's. Look at Pittsburgh and Green Bay as examples. KC will miss Hill and is threat, but Andy Reid know how to find wr's. Cincy is not going to be able to keep Chase,Boyd,and Higgins. I think they lost Uzumah in the offseason. Boyd is the slot and I think his contract is up after this season. They can draft a replacement after this season and they will still have Chase and Tee. There will also be a couple of mid range vets to fill in. The Texans never had a consistent threat opposite of Hopkins because Fuller stayed injured. Instead of drafting such player, it was Hopkins or bust.
 
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steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Thats fair. Me personally, when the stats says this specific %, yet the qb can be the highest paid at his position. In regards to Rodgers, he's been in the conference championship game like 5 times. If you're team is good enough to be one of 4 left out of 32, you have a superbowl quality team. My issue with Green Bay is their boardroom approach never has a sense of urgency. They've never had 2 wr's popping at the same time. The last couple of years, it was downright criminal to only score 10 pts and they still should've won the game. Those are things that had nothing to do with the qb taking 13.9% of the cap, in my opinion.
If the Packers had won, it would've been an outlier.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
In the next couple of years, the QB taking 13.9% of the cap will become the new normal and that will mean that teams with competent GMs and front office personnel will become more important than ever. They will have to draft well, sign veteran players and surround that high paid QB with complementary pieces. These GMs and front office personnel cannot constantly make mistakes like the Mercilus, Cobb, Murray, and Cunningham contracts that we saw during the O'Brien and Easterby era.

One example of the salary cap maneuvers that will be required from GMs and their staffs are the Saints during the Brees/Payton era. The Saints are always suppose to be in cap purgatory, but they consistently were able to field a team around Brees while navigating the salary cap. That will be the norm.
True, times change, there will become a new percentage. So far it hasn't happened. You would think after 30 years GM's would've learned. I guess marketing won out.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
True, times change, there will become a new percentage. So far it hasn't happened. You would think after 30 years GM's would've learned. I guess marketing won out.
Again, did Peyton and Ryan lose in the sb because of the percentage or because the team didn't play up to par? When GB forced 3 to's vs Tampa, did they lose because they didn't have enough good players or did they not perform up to par and settle for fg's? As a gm, what would you do to put your team in a position? We're just having dialogue
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Again, did Peyton and Ryan lose in the sb because of the percentage or because the team didn't play up to par? When GB forced 3 to's vs Tampa, did they lose because they didn't have enough good players or did they not perform up to par and settle for fg's? As a gm, what would you do to put your team in a position? We're just having dialogue
It is what it is.

People should really learn from history instead of playing the what if game.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
um.....actually oil (and natural gas) comes from microorganisms and algae, not large animals. Large animals just rot away and don't leave anything behind except their bones and their atoms.

And coal comes exclusively from plants.

Not that it matters. LOL
I’m a retired petroleum geologist. I was just parroting a belief that probably 90% of Americans believe. I’ve got a brother that’s a retired phd geochemist so I actually know a little bit about the stuff.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Agree. However, history also teaches us that having a QB under that threshold has not guaranteed winning Super Bowls, competing for Super Bowls or even winning seasons. If you need proof, look at the history of the Texans, Jaguars, Lions, and Browns.
Correct, it does however say you won't win a SB. So far that's the guarantee.

What gets me is owners should be aware of this and not hand out contracts that are over the threshold of they are serious about winning a championship.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
Correct, it does however say you won't win a SB. So far that's the guarantee.

What gets me is owners should be aware of this and not hand out contracts that are over the threshold of they are serious about winning a championship.
Again, I ask you, what would you do? We have at least 2 scenerios playing out right now In front of your eyes. See, it's easy to say what you wouldn't do as an owner except when you have that dude. Denver had a ready made squad when Peyton shook loose, you think Elway was thinking of a percentage? You think Spanos and Brown Family going to look at a % when it comes time to pay Herbert and Burrow? Either one of those guys sits down and says I need $260m guaranteed, what are you gonna say or do?
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Again, I ask you, what would you do? We have at least 2 scenerios playing out right now In front of your eyes. See, it's easy to say what you wouldn't do as an owner except when you have that dude. Denver had a ready made squad when Peyton shook loose, you think Elway was thinking of a percentage? You think Spanos and Brown Family going to look at a % when it comes time to pay Herbert and Burrow? Either one of those guys sits down and says I need $260m guaranteed, what are you gonna say or do?
I've already told you what I would do many times. After the 1st contract was up I would try to sign my QB to a deal where I could compete for championships for another 3 yrs or so and backload the contract. After 7 yrs in Mills case or 8 yrs for a 1st rd pick, I would look at the QB class that I thought was best, I would draft that QB and if he had to sit a yr while Mills played out the last yr of cheap money on his contract that would be OK. After the cheap yrs are gone then I would be looking at trading my franchise QB for picks to put around my new QB.

Kinda like what the Chiefs did with Smith and Mahomes.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
I’m a retired petroleum geologist. I was just parroting a belief that probably 90% of Americans believe. I’ve got a brother that’s a retired phd geochemist so I actually know a little bit about the stuff.
I'm a retired Microsoft Bullshit Artist with Microsoft certifications coming out my ass. LOL

I've taken a bit of interest in geology in my retirement, mostly through reading books on past geological periods. My interest in ancient civilizations lead to an interest in early pre-history (archaeology), which kept leading me backwards through time until I was reading books on the solar system formation. My interests wander a lot.
 

Dejaview

All Pro
I'm a retired Microsoft Bullshit Artist with Microsoft certifications coming out my ass. LOL

I've taken a bit of interest in geology in my retirement, mostly through reading books on past geological periods. My interest in ancient civilizations lead to an interest in early pre-history (archaeology), which kept leading me backwards through time until I was reading books on the solar system formation. My interests wander a lot.
Interesting. A current interest of mine, being interested in both Ancient Greece mythology-theology-philosophy and paleontology is the growing realization of Greek mythical objects finding their origin from ancient fossil finds. A great example is the stunning resemblance of protoceratop finds in the gold bearing region of the gobi desert and the mythical griffin as a gold protector. Greece was a Pleistocene hotbed for mammoths and other oversized mammals. Reconstructions show that mammoth fibulas could have inspired ancient Greeks to propose mythological giants due to their resemblance to human leg bones etc. now I’m getting into fossil finds of Native Americans.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
I've already told you what I would do many times. After the 1st contract was up I would try to sign my QB to a deal where I could compete for championships for another 3 yrs or so and backload the contract. After 7 yrs in Mills case or 8 yrs for a 1st rd pick, I would look at the QB class that I thought was best, I would draft that QB and if he had to sit a yr while Mills played out the last yr of cheap money on his contract that would be OK. After the cheap yrs are gone then I would be looking at trading my franchise QB for picks to put around my new QB.

Kinda like what the Chiefs did with Smith and Mahomes.
They were never winning anything with Smith and they've got 1 with Mahomes but had to get rid of Tyreke, the most dangerous man in football. You also you would try to get the qb to sign a cap friendly deal, what if he doesn't? Eli took the bag and got 2 rings. Ryan to the bag and blew a 28-3 lead. If the franchise qb says he wants the bag, wants to be the highest paid, what do you do? You're going to trade a mvp quality qb? You're going to trade Rodgers or Herbert or Burrow? There are no guarantees that if the qb takes less, the team is going to add talent. Brady took less for years, 10 years to be exact and they didn't win Superbowls. His greatness hid the holes in that roster and nobody could figure out why they didn't have more/better receiving threats outside. Soon as he left, roster was trash. Roster still trash even with Jones on a rookie deal.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
They were never winning anything with Smith and they've got 1 with Mahomes but had to get rid of Tyreke, the most dangerous man in football. You also you would try to get the qb to sign a cap friendly deal, what if he doesn't? Eli took the bag and got 2 rings. Ryan to the bag and blew a 28-3 lead. If the franchise qb says he wants the bag, wants to be the highest paid, what do you do? You're going to trade a mvp quality qb? You're going to trade Rodgers or Herbert or Burrow? There are no guarantees that if the qb takes less, the team is going to add talent. Brady took less for years, 10 years to be exact and they didn't win Superbowls. His greatness hid the holes in that roster and nobody could figure out why they didn't have more/better receiving threats outside. Soon as he left, roster was trash. Roster still trash even with Jones on a rookie deal.
Yes, if the QB is over the 30 yr old 15% threshold and isn't willing to work with me to give us the best shot at winning championships that tells me what that guy is all about and I'm moving on. You think ownership would learn this.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
From his last superbowl in 2005 until 2015, Brady was taking paycuts in some of those years. Now there were years when he was the highest paid qb in football , but there were years he could've pushed the qb market, but didn't. In those 10 years, they didn't a superbowl.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
From his last superbowl in 2005 until 2015, Brady was taking paycuts in some of those years. Now there were years when he was the highest paid qb in football , but there were years he could've pushed the qb market, but didn't. In those 10 years, they didn't a superbowl.
They went to the Super Bowl in 2003,2004,2007,2011,2014,2016,2017,2018
The bolded were all wins...
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
They went to the Super Bowl in 2003,2004,2007,2011,2014,2016,2017,2018
The bolded were all wins...
Pretty much.
They went to the Super Bowl in 2003,2004,2007,2011,2014,2016,2017,2018
The bolded were all wins...
As I stated, from his last superbowl in 04 it took him 10 years to win another when he was taking paycuts. QBs taking paycuts doesn't guarantee superbowls, not even for the greatest qb and greatest coach of all time. Nevertheless, it's an amazing accomplishment that will never be duplicated.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
But they did play in 5 AFCCG

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
Taking a paycut doesn't guarantee anything at the qb position. Your roster strength and development counts as much if not more in the modern nfl. Rodgers has been in 5 nfc championship games. By your logic, at 30, he should've taken less even though he was winning mvps and going to championship games or you would've traded him, correct.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Taking a paycut doesn't guarantee anything at the qb position. Your roster strength and development counts as much if not more in the modern nfl. Rodgers has been in 5 nfc championship games. By your logic, at 30, he should've taken less even though he was winning mvps and going to championship games or you would've traded him, correct.
My logic is based in the fact that no QB has won a championship in the last 30 years taking up more than 15 % of the cap.

You're making this much harder than it is. These are just the facts.
 

leebigeztx

Keep it Movin!
My logic is based in the fact that no QB has won a championship in the last 30 years taking up more than 15 % of the cap.

You're making this much harder than it is. These are just the facts.
When I said Brady went 10 yrs ,taking paycuts and didn't win, you said he went to afc championship games and superbowls. Do you see how that works? The team can go to championship games and superbowls and lose with or without a qb over or under your threshold. Your chances aren't any better with your qb at 14.85 than it is a 15.02 % It's 1 and done in the nfl
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
When I said Brady went 10 yrs ,taking paycuts and didn't win, you said he went to afc championship games and superbowls. Do you see how that works? The team can go to championship games and superbowls and lose with or without a qb over or under your threshold. Your chances aren't any better with your qb at 14.85 than it is a 15.02 % It's 1 and done in the nfl
I know what they haven't done,

Win championships when their QB takes up more than 15 percent of the cap.
 

mws

Rookie
It's funny that the cap number used to be 13.2%. Now it's moved to 15%. It is slowly creeping up as many have predicted. No team may have won the SB but at least 2 have been with a QB cap hit 15% or higher.

In 2009 Peyton Manning's $21,199,998 cap number was 17.2% of the salary cap when the Colts lost to Saints in Super Bowl 44.

Matt Ryan's salary in 2016 when the Falcons played the Patriots in Super Bowl 51 (played here in NRG stadium) was $23,750,000 - 15.0%.
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
It's funny that the cap number used to be 13.2%. Now it's moved to 15%. It is slowly creeping up as many have predicted. No team may have won the SB but at least 2 have been with a QB cap hit 15% or higher.

In 2009 Peyton Manning's $21,199,998 cap number was 17.2% of the salary cap when the Colts lost to Saints in Super Bowl 44.

Matt Ryan's salary in 2016 when the Falcons played the Patriots in Super Bowl 51 (played here in NRG stadium) was $23,750,000 - 15.0%.
Until this trend is consistently broken everything else is an outlier.
 

mws

Rookie
Well at least we don't have to worry about the Chiefs for the next 3 years. According to the "salary cap theory" there is not a snowballs chance in hell of them playing in the SB.

Mahomes 2022 Salary: $35,793,381 - 17.1%
Mahomes 2023 Salary: $46,793,381 - 20.8%
Mahomes 2024 Salary: $44,293,381 - 17.3%
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Well at least we don't have to worry about the Chiefs for the next 3 years. According to the "salary cap theory" there is not a snowballs chance in hell of them playing in the SB.

Mahomes 2022 Salary: $35,793,381 - 17.1%
Mahomes 2023 Salary: $46,793,381 - 20.8%
Mahomes 2024 Salary: $44,293,381 - 17.3%
This is why they had to let Hill go.
 

JB

Old Curmudgeon
Contributor's Club
Well at least we don't have to worry about the Chiefs for the next 3 years. According to the "salary cap theory" there is not a snowballs chance in hell of them playing in winning the SB.

Mahomes 2022 Salary: $35,793,381 - 17.1%
Mahomes 2023 Salary: $46,793,381 - 20.8%
Mahomes 2024 Salary: $44,293,381 - 17.3%
FIFY
 


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