Rick Smith's poor job of managing the cap has closed our window for the time being.

[dalemurphy]

Yes I am the guy. The general consenus is the Salary Cap next year will be very close to what is was this year. It would be foolhardy to plan differently.

Then why will the cap go up significantly in 2015? Conventional wisdom says the NFL will expand regular season games to 17 or 18 in 2015. In order to do this owners will need approval of the NFLPA. How do the owners get approval from the players? Significant increase in the salary cap, more money for everyone. In other words, money talks BS walks. Basic logic.

I haven't made up any numbers.

Regarding the long term health of the Texans salary cap you describe, that simply is not true. 2014 is as bad as 2013, Texans will have to replace 15 contracts w/ only $8 million available cap dollars. That averages to just over $500K per contract. That's not enough to meet the basic minimum obligations. 2015 is worse.

You keep talking about cutting Flacco and how much it would cost. Why would they want to cut Flacco? He's a Super Bowl winning QB. All he's done since joining the Ravens is go to the playoffs every year.

Here is something most fans don't realize, it's going to cost as much to sign JJ Watt as it cost to sign Joe Flacco and the Texans still don't have a QB.

You would cut Flacco for the following reasons:

1. He became ineffective.
2. He suffered injuries that made him ineffective.
3. He wasn't worth $30 million against the cap each year.

Can you read the future and say that none of those things will happen in two, three, or four years?

Also, regarding the Texans cap in 2014, the Texans could make the following cuts: OD, Ed Reed, JJoseph, D. Manning, and add $25 million in free cap space. So, if the cap jumps for all 32 teams in the NFL in 2015 (and not just all the teams except Houston, as you have apparently been led to believe), by the time they need to sign JJ Watt to a new deal, they would have close to $60 million in cap space, and that is if they don't cut Schaub next year and get him off the books while saving another $4 million in cap room.

The Texans can be as agile as they determine prudent for the next three or four off-seasons with their roster and personnel decisions with little cap ramification. Here is the link to see their cap situation next year for anyone interested in the facts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/2014/

notice that most of the large cap hits also have a very low dead money number attached to them. In other words, there are two important numbers on the chart:

1. the 2014 cap figure- which shows how much the player, as the contract is currently structured, will count against next year's cap if he is on the roster.

2. the dead money number- How much the player will count against the cap if he is cut or traded and not on the 53 man roster.

 

[Scooter]

i dont think we even have much to worry about with both wade smith and antonio smith coming off the books next year. they're combining for almost 13 million in caps space currently, with cheap alternatives already on the roster (quess and crick). watt's going to eat a good chunk of that, but we dont have a whole lot of escalation next year to hurt us as far as i can tell.

these arguments keep getting shot down, and shot down, and then the final grasp is "what about eric winston?". well, we dont know. he wasnt worth what he thought he was, but with our inability to replace him, winston is worth more than we thought.

either that or they devolve into wanting another coach to bump up against the cap in the same manner. if you want another coach, or you dont like an approach, try arguing that route. to say we're not managing the cap well just doesnt make a lot of sense.

edit: MSR dale, good link.

 

[thunderkyss]

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/2014/

I think the Ed Reed number there is interesting. $5.3M

That's if he is here next season. People complain about his contract, but I like it. $3.2M this year. That's probably vet minimum if they stretched it out 15 years.

Only cost us $1M to cut him before next season.

So if he did what they thought he would, help us win a Super Bowl..... it cost us $3.2M. If not, we cut him & save $4M against the cap.

 

[eriadoc]

I think the Ed Reed number there is interesting. $5.3M

That's if he is here next season. People complain about his contract, but I like it. $3.2M this year. That's probably vet minimum if they stretched it out 15 years.

Only cost us $1M to cut him before next season.

So if he did what they thought he would, help us win a Super Bowl..... it cost us $3.2M. If not, we cut him & save $4M against the cap.

Yeah, but you could sign Blaine Gabbert to play FS and say that, because the chance of him helping the Texans win a Super Bowl is about the same. And those of us that never liked the signing have been screaming it from the rooftops that the reason we didn't like and still do not like the signing is because Ed Reed is D.O.N.E. It didn't take a genius, or even an NFL GM, to notice that.

OK, so I exaggerated with the Gabbert comment, but only slightly.

 

[Texian]

You would cut Flacco for the following reasons:

1. He became ineffective.
2. He suffered injuries that made him ineffective.
3. He wasn't worth $30 million against the cap each year.

Can you read the future and say that none of those things will happen in two, three, or four years?

Also, regarding the Texans cap in 2014, the Texans could make the following cuts: OD, Ed Reed, JJoseph, D. Manning, and add $25 million in free cap space. So, if the cap jumps for all 32 teams in the NFL in 2015 (and not just all the teams except Houston, as you have apparently been led to believe), by the time they need to sign JJ Watt to a new deal, they would have close to $60 million in cap space, and that is if they don't cut Schaub next year and get him off the books while saving another $4 million in cap room.

The Texans can be as agile as they determine prudent for the next three or four off-seasons with their roster and personnel decisions with little cap ramification. Here is the link to see their cap situation next year for anyone interested in the facts:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/cap-hit/2014/

notice that most of the large cap hits also have a very low dead money number attached to them. In other words, there are two important numbers on the chart:

1. the 2014 cap figure- which shows how much the player, as the contract is currently structured, will count against next year's cap if he is on the roster.

2. the dead money number- How much the player will count against the cap if he is cut or traded and not on the 53 man roster.

So your suggesting that the Ravens should not have re-signed Flacco, let him walk, become a FA. Silly. Your post have become unreasonable. You are arguing for the sake of arguing. That is waste of my time and I don't do that. I hope you will understand if I don't or just stop responding to your comments.

 

[Texian]

i dont think we even have much to worry about with both wade smith and antonio smith coming off the books next year. they're combining for almost 13 million in caps space currently, with cheap alternatives already on the roster (quess and crick). watt's going to eat a good chunk of that, but we dont have a whole lot of escalation next year to hurt us as far as i can tell.

these arguments keep getting shot down, and shot down, and then the final grasp is "what about eric winston?". well, we dont know. he wasnt worth what he thought he was, but with our inability to replace him, winston is worth more than we thought.

either that or they devolve into wanting another coach to bump up against the cap in the same manner. if you want another coach, or you dont like an approach, try arguing that route. to say we're not managing the cap well just doesnt make a lot of sense.

edit: MSR dale, good link.

I guess when you completely ignore the facts it's easy to assume how arguments get shot down. If you were better informed, not so much. When Wade and Ninja's $13 million salaries along with the other 13 other 2014 Texans Free agents salaries come off the books next year ($21 Million), the Texans are still only able to start the new league year come March only $8 million under the cap. You don't need know math to understand this, simple arithmetic will suffice.

http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/houston-texans/

 

[houstonspartan]

Here is something most fans don't realize, it's going to cost as much to sign JJ Watt as it cost to sign Joe Flacco and the Texans still don't have a QB.

Oh, I realize it. I've been sounding the "JJ Watt contract" alarm loudly the last several months. It's a couple of years away, but it is going to be MASSIVE. That's why I have been saying we have to win NOW. JJ's next contract will necessitate a near-house cleaning to afford him, so we've got to get w's now.

 

[thunderkyss]

I guess when you completely ignore the facts it's easy to assume how arguments get shot down. If you were better informed, not so much. When Wade and Ninja's $13 million salaries along with the other 13 other 2014 Texans Free agents salaries come off the books next year ($21 Million), the Texans are still only able to start the new league year come March only $8 million under the cap. You don't need know math to understand this, simple arithmetic will suffice.

http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/houston-texans/

I know it looks bleak. But the fact is that we're among the most talented teams in the league. That's what our salary cap situation reflects, not the gross mismanagement you're suggesting.

Whitney & Reed

still playing on their rookie contracts, maybe underperforming a bit, but Whitney is on pace for a double sack year.
​

Antonio & Wade are underperforming.

If it were me & I wanted to lower their cap hits I'd have extended them bringing their 2013 cap hits down, but that would cut into the $8M you're already saying is too low.
​

Garrett Graham

Is the only one on that list of FAs that needs to be resigned.
​

As it stands we'll be needing a NT, DE, ILB, Safety (if you cut Reed, adding $4M to your $8M figure), OT, OG, RB, QB

If we cut Jjo that would save us another $12M

Cut Jjo $12M
Cut Reed $4M
Currently under the cap $8M


$24M under the cap. & that's without pushing any money into the future.

 

[Texian]

I know it looks bleak. But the fact is that we're among the most talented teams in the league. That's what our salary cap situation reflects, not the gross mismanagement you're suggesting.

Whitney & Reed

still playing on their rookie contracts, maybe underperforming a bit, but Whitney is on pace for a double sack year.
​

Antonio & Wade are underperforming.

If it were me & I wanted to lower their cap hits I'd have extended them bringing their 2013 cap hits down, but that would cut into the $8M you're already saying is too low.
​

Garrett Graham

Is the only one on that list of FAs that needs to be resigned.
​

As it stands we'll be needing a NT, DE, ILB, Safety (if you cut Reed, adding $4M to your $8M figure), OT, OG, RB, QB

If we cut Jjo that would save us another $12M

Cut Jjo $12M
Cut Reed $4M
Currently under the cap $8M


$24M under the cap. & that's without pushing any money into the future.

weak link on D is secondary and J Jo is best DB. How do you replace? Easier said than done.

 

[thunderkyss]

weak link on D is secondary and J Jo is best DB. How do you replace? Easier said than done.

I don't see a difference between Jjo & Matt Schaub. Both were good enough in their day, but I haven't seen Jjo play at a pro-bowl level in about as long as I've seen Schaub play at that level.

He's definitely not done anything in the last 2 seasons (yet, since this season is far from over) to make me want to take a $10M cap hit.

 

[GuerillaBlack]

the NBA lets half the league into the playoffs and morey's only made it 3 of his 7 years. let's not crown anybody until they achieve something. morey plays with the team like it's a video game and the fans love all that movement. that's not the way to win in the NFL.

Well Morey did lose his two top players once he got the job. He then compiled assets for three seasons, with the team never going below .500. If they were in the East, then they would have been a top six seed for those three years the Rockets missed the playoffs. In one year, he has added two top ten players to the team. Fans were getting pissed at all the movement, but now its finally paying off and there will be much more stability in the roster. Chemistry is important in basketball too. No doubt the Rockets are much more forward thinking than the Texans. The Astros are too.

 

[steelbtexan]

Well Morey did lose his two top players once he got the job. He then compiled assets for three seasons, with the team never going below .500. If they were in the East, then they would have been a top six seed for those three years the Rockets missed the playoffs. In one year, he has added two top ten players to the team. Fans were getting pissed at all the movement, but now its finally paying off and there will be much more stability in the roster. Chemistry is important in basketball too. No doubt the Rockets are much more forward thinking than the Texans. The Astros are too.

I dont understand why fans get upset when players get traded. Moving all of those players over that 3 yr span set the Rockets up to have the cap room to sign 2 top 10 players and after making a trade have room to add a 3rd Aldridge/Love type player.

Those kinds of moves are the kinds of moves that teams with forward thinking GM's make. Morey makes Smith look like a kindergartener when it comes to being a GM. Of couse Morey is a MIT graduate. Did Rick graduate from Purdue?

 

[Exascor]

Well Morey did lose his two top players once he got the job. He then compiled assets for three seasons, with the team never going below .500. If they were in the East, then they would have been a top six seed for those three years the Rockets missed the playoffs. In one year, he has added two top ten players to the team. Fans were getting pissed at all the movement, but now its finally paying off and there will be much more stability in the roster. Chemistry is important in basketball too. No doubt the Rockets are much more forward thinking than the Texans. The Astros are too.

You just can't compare NFL to NBA. Not defending Smith at all but saying the Rockets are more forward thinking than the Texans is bogus. NBA players are shuffled around because of their contacts. Players are considered to be "great" commodities if they have expiring contacts. Draft picks aren't valuable past the top 5 or so. You only need 2-3 great players to be considered legit. There isn't a franchise player designation. If there was Miami wouldn't have Lebron and the Rockets probably don't have Howard. The goal in basketball is get those 2-3 star players and fill a roster around them. Other than qb there isn't a player in football that can compare in worth to any one player on a basketball team.

Smith deserves criticism. He may deserve to lose his job. Morey and his crazy player movement has nothing to do with it though.

 

[Texian]

I don't see a difference between Jjo & Matt Schaub. Both were good enough in their day, but I haven't seen Jjo play at a pro-bowl level in about as long as I've seen Schaub play at that level.

He's definitely not done anything in the last 2 seasons (yet, since this season is far from over) to make me want to take a $10M cap hit.

According to PFF out of 106 ranked CBs, Joseph is ranked #23. That's respectable. Cutting Joseph and the Texans secondary is only getting worse not better. I think the pass rush and run defense are bigger problems facing the defense. Currently the Texans Passing D is ranked #1, the Texans Rushing D is #27.

 

[GuerillaBlack]

6

You just can't compare NFL to NBA. Not defending Smith at all but saying the Rockets are more forward thinking than the Texans is bogus. NBA players are shuffled around because of their contacts. Players are considered to be "great" commodities if they have expiring contacts. Draft picks aren't valuable past the top 5 or so. You only need 2-3 great players to be considered legit. There isn't a franchise player designation. If there was Miami wouldn't have Lebron and the Rockets probably don't have Howard. The goal in basketball is get those 2-3 star players and fill a roster around them. Other than qb there isn't a player in football that can compare in worth to any one player on a basketball team.

Smith deserves criticism. He may deserve to lose his job. Morey and his crazy player movement has nothing to do with it though.

Nah, the Rockets are easily more forward thinking, while the Texans are okay with the status quo. Just look at how both franchises operate, its obvious. Take things slow, be patient, etc. And draft picks are definitely valuable past the top five. Texans don't take big risks (Sam Montgomery isn't one), or they wait until it is too late (Schaub). If Kubiak coached the Rockets, he would have been fired like jvg was back in 2010.

 

[dalemurphy]

According to PFF out of 106 ranked CBs, Joseph is ranked #23. That's respectable. Cutting Joseph and the Texans secondary is only getting worse not better. I think the pass rush and run defense are bigger problems facing the defense. Currently the Texans Passing D is ranked #1, the Texans Rushing D is #27.

Doubtful that we would have to cut Joseph... But, the threat of the cut encourages restructuring of the contract. Depending on any number of factors, having that $11 million salary available to cut without dead money being attached to it provides leverage and also freedom for the Texans should something happen (injury, another good CB surfaces at a bargain, etc..)

The rush defense was never designed to be very good. The Phillips' scheme is set up to make plays against the run (but not consistently shut the attack down) and the pass. But, because it is an aggressive one gap scheme, if teams are able to run the ball 30 times a game, they are going to gash us sometimes. Also, Phillips' defense is poor recognizing and defending draws and screens- partly due to the aggressiveness and partly due to poor situational recognition by the coaches and subsequently the players.

All that being said, the Texans biggest issue on defense is the situational predictability in coverage and in blitzing. Playcallers can be relatively certain, in passing situations, that the Texans will be sending both OLBs, one ILB, along with the three downlinemen on 3rd and moderate-long... Also, they can be quite sure that the Texans will be in a straight man coverage scheme based on the offensive package and WR alignment. This is why the Texans struggle against good QBs with good coaches. Lesser QBs wilt under the pressure or struggle enough with consistency and accuracy that they can't make enough plays against the press man and pass rushing pressure. Good QBs see those predictable pressure packages as an opportunity... and they know that if the offense can execute, they will succeed on the play. For an offense to line up in those difficult situations (3rd and 6 or more) with that kind of confidence, well, that spells trouble.

Combine those defensive limitations with injuries to the two most versatile playmakers (Manning, Cushing) in the middle of the defense, and we are in a world of trouble against Indy, Denver, New England.

As a Kubiak and Schaub supporter, even I recognize our best hope to salvage this (once very promising season) is for Keenum to play and perhaps create/develop an offensive mentality that is more aggressive, unpredictable, and will hopefully create plays at opportune times in those games where we are over-matched.

I still think this is an 8 win team, even with the injuries and poor start. It needs to get to 10, though, and with the loss of Cushing, it will be one hell of an exciting and hope-invigurating ride if we get there. And, I can't imagine it happening without a set of peculiar variables: Keenum being one, and the surprising emergence of a couple other young players on defense being some others (safety and LB).

 

[Exascor]

6

Nah, the Rockets are easily more forward thinking, while the Texans are okay with the status quo. Just look at how both franchises operate, its obvious. Take things slow, be patient, etc. And draft picks are definitely valuable past the top five. Texans don't take big risks (Sam Montgomery isn't one), or they wait until it is too late (Schaub). If Kubiak coached the Rockets, he would have been fired like jvg was back in 2010.

Yeah right - Morey is so good he was "forward thinking" to this 6 year plan huh? His roster churning appears to have finally paid off. After 6 years. Let that sink in. 6 years to get to where the Texans were 2 years ago after (wait for it) a complete roster turn over. Sounds like Smith did the same thing as Morey but had to flip 52 roster spots AND did it in 2 less years. The only difference is Morey landed 2 of the top players in back to back years. Smith didn't land Brady, Manning, Brees or some other top QB. He stuck with Schaub. I'm ready for a complete regime change but...if this team had a top 5 QB (maybe top 10) then Kubiak & Smith look like geniuses. They don't so they look like boobs.

 

[dalemurphy]

I don't see a difference between Jjo & Matt Schaub. Both were good enough in their day, but I haven't seen Jjo play at a pro-bowl level in about as long as I've seen Schaub play at that level.

He's definitely not done anything in the last 2 seasons (yet, since this season is far from over) to make me want to take a $10M cap hit.

The corner backs are being put in a very difficult position. I think they are both playing very well. However, they are left playing straight man defense too often. They are very good at it. However, because it is so predictable, teams can have such confidence of that island that QBs do not have to hestitate or worry about misreading the coverage. And, because safeties are not rolling into the coverage and zone is seldom mixed in, KJ and JJ are not being given opportunities to aggressively attack the ball on short routes... Therefore, it is almost irresponsible of them to attempt to make a play on the ball when it is 3rd and 7 and the WR runs a seven yard out.

 

[dalemurphy]

So your suggesting that the Ravens should not have re-signed Flacco, let him walk, become a FA. Silly. Your post have become unreasonable. You are arguing for the sake of arguing. That is waste of my time and I don't do that. I hope you will understand if I don't or just stop responding to your comments.

Dripping with Irony.

I never suggested the Ravens should not have re-signed Flacco. I simply refuted your argument that Schaub's contract is comparatively restrictive to the cap as Flacco's.

Did the Ravens overpay Flacco in my estimation? Yes. Does that mean it was a mistake? not necessarily. I'm sure they attempted to get the best deal they could. They were not willing to gamble on a young, talented Superbowl QB hitting the free agent market. I get that. And, because of their difficult cap situation after the season, they could not franchise tag him or even threaten to. ... Which brings me back to my point for those worried about the Texans' cap as it pertains to JJWatt. The reason why Cushing and DBrown were signed and taken care of, and the reason the Texans decided to make calculated decisions and let guys like Barwin, Quin, Casey go is because they have a long term look at the cap, at keeping it healthy... with an effort to be talented and capable of championship runs for a long time.

So, the Texans are positioning themselves each off-season to not have core players becoming free agents or being in a situation where they are having to scramble to get a deal done and a guy they want to keep under the cap. So, when Watt's 4year deal is up, the Texans will pick up their option on year 5 (using it as leverage for a relatively reasonable long term deal before they pick the meager option up). If he decides to play out the option instead of re-signing, the Texans will have room under the cap and have the franchise tag as leverage. If he doesn't sign, they franchise him. The next season, the same thing. If then, he still won't sign, they cut him loose after 7 years of service as he hits his 30th birthday.

 

[badboy]

Dripping with Irony.

I never suggested the Ravens should not have re-signed Flacco. I simply refuted your argument that Schaub's contract is comparatively restrictive to the cap as Flacco's.

Did the Ravens overpay Flacco in my estimation? Yes. Does that mean it was a mistake? not necessarily. I'm sure they attempted to get the best deal they could. They were not willing to gamble on a young, talented Superbowl QB hitting the free agent market. I get that. And, because of their difficult cap situation after the season, they could not franchise tag him or even threaten to. ... Which brings me back to my point for those worried about the Texans' cap as it pertains to JJWatt. The reason why Cushing and DBrown were signed and taken care of, and the reason the Texans decided to make calculated decisions and let guys like Barwin, Quin, Casey go is because they have a long term look at the cap, at keeping it healthy... with an effort to be talented and capable of championship runs for a long time.

So, the Texans are positioning themselves each off-season to not have core players becoming free agents or being in a situation where they are having to scramble to get a deal done and a guy they want to keep under the cap. So, when Watt's 4year deal is up, the Texans will pick up their option on year 5 (using it as leverage for a relatively reasonable long term deal before they pick the meager option up). If he decides to play out the option instead of re-signing, the Texans will have room under the cap and have the franchise tag as leverage. If he doesn't sign, they franchise him. The next season, the same thing. If then, he still won't sign, they cut him loose after 7 years of service as he hits his 30th birthday.

First I've heard of Watt having an option year. 2015 is UFA IIRC. Can you provide link? That would be huge if there exist a team option as with KJ.

 

[GuerillaBlack]

Yeah right - Morey is so good he was "forward thinking" to this 6 year plan huh? His roster churning appears to have finally paid off. After 6 years. Let that sink in. 6 years to get to where the Texans were 2 years ago after (wait for it) a complete roster turn over. Sounds like Smith did the same thing as Morey but had to flip 52 roster spots AND did it in 2 less years. The only difference is Morey landed 2 of the top players in back to back years. Smith didn't land Brady, Manning, Brees or some other top QB. He stuck with Schaub. I'm ready for a complete regime change but...if this team had a top 5 QB (maybe top 10) then Kubiak & Smith look like geniuses. They don't so they look like boobs.

It did not take him six years. What are you talking about?

 

[Exascor]

It did not take him six years. What are you talking about?

Morey's been GM since 2007. 2013-2007=6. Math.

 

[dalemurphy]

First I've heard of Watt having an option year. 2015 is UFA IIRC. Can you provide link? That would be huge if there exist a team option as with KJ.

It is not expressly written into Watt's contract but is a universal rule collectively bargained under the new deal in 2011. Here is the applicable part followed by the link:

First-round picks get four-year deals in which the club holds a fifth-year option. There are slotted four-year deals from Rounds 2 through 7. Here's the discount. Cam Newton, the first pick in this year's draft, would be eligible for a four-year, $22.03 million contract. If the Panthers keep him for a fifth year, his salary would be at the average of the top 10 salaries of other quarterbacks. One unique part about the new system is it should prevent long holdouts. At some point in August, unsigned draft choices lose their leverage if they aren't signed. There is another clause that prevents draft picks from holding out after they sign. If he holds out during the deal, he is prohibited from renegotiating his contract. There is a limit to the amount of money given to rookies. The max total in 2011 is $874 million.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6790759/what-new-nfl-cba-means-football-terms

 

[thunderkyss]

According to PFF out of 106 ranked CBs, Joseph is ranked #23. That's respectable. Cutting Joseph and the Texans secondary is only getting worse not better. I think the pass rush and run defense are bigger problems facing the defense. Currently the Texans Passing D is ranked #1, the Texans Rushing D is #27.

If the pass rush gets fixed, we don't need Jjo to play so well. McCain would even look better.

For a $10M cap hit we need him to look as good on the field as he does on paper. Especially knowing there are 22 corners playing better.

If we don't cut him, it would be in our best interest to renegotiate, kick some of that money down the line bringing his cap hit down to the $3M-$5M range, again providing cap relief while aligning his expected performance with his cap number.

 

[GuerillaBlack]

Morey's been GM since 2007. 2013-2007=6. Math.

Are you aware that the Rockets last won a playoff series was in 2009? That was with one superstar already injured with the other getting injured during the second round. That was further than the Texans had been. Then they make the playoffs last season. Your math may be right, but youre using it for the wrong stuff and it doesn't make sense.

Let this sink in, the injury to two of his superstars four years ago caused him to have to shuffle the roster for three seasons toto land Harden last year. Morey had the assets and cap space thing down and now other tens are poaching the Rockets front office. tell me, who from the Texans front office gets pulled to other teams? Morey lost like three assistants over the off-season.

 

[Exascor]

Are you aware that the Rockets last won a playoff series was in 2009? That was with one superstar already injured with the other getting injured during the second round. That was further than the Texans had been. Then they make the playoffs last season. Your math may be right, but youre using it for the wrong stuff and it doesn't make sense.

Let this sink in, the injury to two of his superstars four years ago caused him to have to shuffle the roster for three seasons toto land Harden last year. Morey had the assets and cap space thing down and now other tens are poaching the Rockets front office. tell me, who from the Texans front office gets pulled to other teams? Morey lost like three assistants over the off-season.

This thread has devolved too much. This is my last reply to this take. Morey has not fielded a team that anyone considered reasonable favorites to get to or win a championship until this season. 6 years. Smith has done it for the past 3 - this year included.

I'm NOT defending Smith. People just seem to throw Morey out as an example of "how it should be done". He wanted Howard last year. He wanted Gasol. If he gets either he doesn't get Harden. If Howard does well in the Lakers system, he may stay in LA. He's smart but he got lucky too.

 

[GuerillaBlack]

This thread has devolved too much. This is my last reply to this take. Morey has not fielded a team that anyone considered reasonable favorites to get to or win a championship until this season. 6 years. Smith has done it for the past 3 - this year included.

I'm NOT defending Smith. People just seem to throw Morey out as an example of "how it should be done". He wanted Howard last year. He wanted Gasol. If he gets either he doesn't get Harden. If Howard does well in the Lakers system, he may stay in LA. He's smart but he got lucky too.

No, the Rockets were thought of as contenders in 08-09 with the addition of Artest. The year before as well until Yao for hurt. Sometimes you make your own luck. Morey made his. we are still waiting on Smith and his bad handling of the cap/drafting replacements.

 

[dalemurphy]

No, the Rockets were thought of as contenders in 08-09 with the addition of Artest. The year before as well until Yao for hurt. Sometimes you make your own luck. Morey made his. we are still waiting on Smith and his bad handling of the cap/drafting replacements.

Why on earth are we talking about the ridiculous NBA? And, are you kidding me? what have the Rockets accomplished that the Texans have not since 2007? I thought you guys were concerned about championships. I don't follow the NBA- it's almost as scripted as pro wrestling. Still, I don't recall seeing the Rockets accomplishing much in the playoffs.

 

[SchaubApologist]

Riiiiiiggghhhtttt. Bad cap management started affecting us in December. So do bad draft picks start hurting teams in the Superbowl?

I've wasted too much time in this thread. You have a twisted reason for every statement you make and your analytical skills are severely lacking.

It is OK for a very talented team to be up against the cap. This is a very talented team. Your favorite team, Indy apparently, is under the cap because they are a young team with onegreat player and several above aaverage players that are all very young.

And in case you have forgotten, your favorite team had the best qb of all time for over a decade and only has one ring to show for it. Think about that for a minute. You think in 3 years that Luck's contract isn'tgoing to put indy in a world of hurt? Their owner was just lamenting the fact that they only won one ring with Manning. The colts are a 3 or 4 win team without Luck. The Texans will win more games than that with a QB that is half as good as luck and then they will have the chance to draft a franchise QB.

Other than luck which players do the colts have that you would take over the Texans hands down? If that list is more than three or four players we know the problem, it is your knowledge.

Mike

Wait a minute, back it up... Beep Beep Beep

The "very talented" texans are 2-5 and 2-6 is very much a reality. Hell, I think 2-7 might happen because winning @ARI is no easy feat.

I think we can stop the delusion that the Texan's roster is "very talented".

 

[dalemurphy]

Wait a minute, back it up... Beep Beep Beep

The "very talented" texans are 2-5 and 2-6 is very much a reality. Hell, I think 2-7 might happen because winning @ARI is no easy feat.

I think we can stop the delusion that the Texan's roster is "very talented".

Make your argument. It can't simply be, "the record proves it". Talented teams have had bad stretches. Teams with little talent have had winning streaks... Do you think the jets have more talent than the texans? Explain.

Maybe you are right. But, break it down... You must love Kubiak as a coach to get so much out of an untalented team the past two years.

 

[awc713]

Are you aware that the Rockets last won a playoff series was in 2009? That was with one superstar already injured with the other getting injured during the second round. That was further than the Texans had been. Then they make the playoffs last season. Your math may be right, but youre using it for the wrong stuff and it doesn't make sense.

Let this sink in, the injury to two of his superstars four years ago caused him to have to shuffle the roster for three seasons toto land Harden last year. Morey had the assets and cap space thing down and now other tens are poaching the Rockets front office. tell me, who from the Texans front office gets pulled to other teams? Morey lost like three assistants over the off-season.

comparing morey and smith as GMs is one of the stupidest things ive seen on this thread.

COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SPORT. morey has 12 roster positions, football has 53. much more parity in football, and MUCH easier to turn a program around.

in basketball, you NEED 1 top 10 player to be relevant, 2 to compete realistically. AND, take into consideration that morey inherited the yao-tmac injury mess. the fact that he turned it around without tanking (which, isnt garaunteed) is unbelievable. even if it took, gasp, 6 years.

 

[steelbtexan]

Make your argument. It can't simply be, "the record proves it". Talented teams have had bad stretches. Teams with little talent have had winning streaks... Do you think the jets have more talent than the texans? Explain.

Maybe you are right. But, break it down... You must love Kubiak as a coach to get so much out of an untalented team the past two years.

Cant have it both ways,

Either the talent is very overrated, or Gary has done a very bad job coaching the team this yr. Or maybe it's a combination of Rick doing a bad job, IE lack of talent and Gary being Gary and reverting back to the early Texan yrs.

8 yrs of Gary is about 3 too many. IMHO

 

[dalemurphy]

Cant have it both ways,

Either the talent is very overrated, or Gary has done a very bad job coaching the team this yr. Or maybe it's a combination of Rick doing a bad job, IE lack of talent and Gary being Gary and reverting back to the early Texan yrs.

8 yrs of Gary is about 3 too many. IMHO

Exactly.

Clearly, Kubiak has done a poor job of coaching this year. I think he and Wade both failed the team last December and January of last season... I don't have a complaint about the job he did in 2011, though.

 

[steelbtexan]

I thought Gary had his finest yr last yr.

A banged up Schaub.

The OL didn't replace Winston/ Briesel. No speed at WR and the Texans went as far there talent with great coaching could take them. Even though the defense lost Cushing, they didn't allow a TD against Cincy. By the time the Texans faced the Pats they were banged up. It didn't suprise me that they got blown out by the Pats in New England. That's happened to alot of teams. Brady vs Schaub at New England, I mean did you really think the Texans were going to win. Especially after stinking it up the last month of the season and blowin HF advantage.

Gary must go and take Coach Joe with him. I know BoB will never do this because it might be to traumatic. But 8 yrs is enough for me to know Gary isn't the man to lead the Texans to a SB. In fact 8 yrs is about 3 too many for my taste. BTW, what are the odds of BoB eating the last yr of Gary's contract and spending the $$$$ to hire a proven winner? 1,000,000 to 1?

 

[Texian]

Exactly.

Clearly, Kubiak has done a poor job of coaching this year. I think he and Wade both failed the team last December and January of last season... I don't have a complaint about the job he did in 2011, though.

I thought Gary had his finest yr last yr.

A banged up Schaub.

The OL didn't replace Winston/ Briesel. No speed at WR and the Texans went as far there talent with great coaching could take them. Even though the defense lost Cushing, they didn't allow a TD against Cincy. By the time the Texans faced the Pats they were banged up. It didn't suprise me that they got blown out by the Pats in New England. That's happened to alot of teams. Brady vs Schaub at New England, I mean did you really think the Texans were going to win. Especially after stinking it up the last month of the season and blowin HF advantage.

Gary must go and take Coach Joe with him. I know BoB will never do this because it might be to traumatic. But 8 yrs is enough for me to know Gary isn't the man to lead the Texans to a SB. In fact 8 yrs is about 3 too many for my taste. BTW, what are the odds of BoB eating the last yr of Gary's contract and spending the $$$$ to hire a proven winner? 1,000,000 to 1?

Much of the Texans success in 2011 & 2012 is closely associated to the success the Dallas Cowboys are having in 2013. Confused? See the division standings.

 

[eriadoc]

I thought Gary had his finest yr last yr.

Really? Let's examine.

A banged up Schaub ...

... that Kubiak extended AFTER the injury that people are claiming is still affecting him.

The OL didn't replace Winston/ Briesel.

KUBIAK didn't replace Winston/Brisiel.

No speed at WR and the Texans went as far there talent with great coaching could take them.

Who failed to bring in any WR speed again? Year after year after year? I guess you can say he coached them up, but if so, you'd have to think he could have done a good job coaching faster WRs too.

Not jumping on you, but I don't like Teflon.

 

[GuerillaBlack]

comparing morey and smith as GMs is one of the stupidest things ive seen on this thread.

COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SPORT. morey has 12 roster positions, football has 53. much more parity in football, and MUCH easier to turn a program around.

in basketball, you NEED 1 top 10 player to be relevant, 2 to compete realistically. AND, take into consideration that morey inherited the yao-tmac injury mess. the fact that he turned it around without tanking (which, isnt garaunteed) is unbelievable. even if it took, gasp, 6 years.

The first part of your post missed the point completely, and then you agree with me in your last paragraph.

 

[drs23]

I thought Gary had his finest yr last yr.

A banged up Schaub.

The OL didn't replace Winston/ Briesel. No speed at WR and the Texans went as far there talent with great coaching could take them. Even though the defense lost Cushing, they didn't allow a TD against Cincy. By the time the Texans faced the Pats they were banged up. It didn't suprise me that they got blown out by the Pats in New England. That's happened to alot of teams. Brady vs Schaub at New England, I mean did you really think the Texans were going to win. Especially after stinking it up the last month of the season and blowin HF advantage.

Gary must go and take Coach Joe with him. I know BoB will never do this because it might be to traumatic. But 8 yrs is enough for me to know Gary isn't the man to lead the Texans to a SB. In fact 8 yrs is about 3 too many for my taste. BTW, what are the odds of BoB eating the last yr of Gary's contract and spending the $$$$ to hire a proven winner? 1,000,000 to 1?

steelb,

I've been asking this question every time I could get it in edgewise and still haven't gotten a response. I hope someone will hop in here and give an honest answer. My gut says if McNair wouldn't eat a year of his contract after the 2010 collapse what has changed that would make us believe he'll do it now. My gut says it ain't gonna happen.

Other opinions??

 

[dalemurphy]

I thought Gary had his finest yr last yr.

A banged up Schaub.

The OL didn't replace Winston/ Briesel. No speed at WR and the Texans went as far there talent with great coaching could take them. Even though the defense lost Cushing, they didn't allow a TD against Cincy. By the time the Texans faced the Pats they were banged up. It didn't suprise me that they got blown out by the Pats in New England. That's happened to alot of teams. Brady vs Schaub at New England, I mean did you really think the Texans were going to win. Especially after stinking it up the last month of the season and blowin HF advantage.

Gary must go and take Coach Joe with him. I know BoB will never do this because it might be to traumatic. But 8 yrs is enough for me to know Gary isn't the man to lead the Texans to a SB. In fact 8 yrs is about 3 too many for my taste. BTW, what are the odds of BoB eating the last yr of Gary's contract and spending the $$$$ to hire a proven winner? 1,000,000 to 1?

I know they were going to get blown out by New England. I knew it, because the coaching was being exposed on both sides of the ball. I thought the team played one good game all year and that was against Baltimore... Other than that, they beat up on bad teams and made enough big plays against the mediocre ones until things fell apart in December.

In 2011, the Texans were the best team in the NFL until the Schaub injury... They were playing great football! Afterwards, without AJ, and with a rookie QB who wasn't even invited to the combine, he kept the team together- playing pretty good football, won a playoff game and even had a chance to win another in Baltimore- despite an impossible set of circumstances.

Regardless, though, I think we both can agree that the team, while it has holes in its talent (like all teams do), is a talented football team and is clearly under-performing this year.

 

[eriadoc]

steelb,

I've been asking this question every time I could get it in edgewise and still haven't gotten a response. I hope someone will hop in here and give an honest answer. My gut says if McNair wouldn't eat a year of his contract after the 2010 collapse what has changed that would make us believe he'll do it now. My gut says it ain't gonna happen.

Other opinions??

I don't think McNair will have a problem eating the last year of the contract if he feels like Kubiak has come as far as he'll get. The question is, and this is the reason he excused 2010, does he think Kubiak is done? I think he believes in Kubiak and puts a lot of this on the players. That's a separate issue from the year on the contract, but same result.

 

[Exascor]

steelb,

I've been asking this question every time I could get it in edgewise and still haven't gotten a response. I hope someone will hop in here and give an honest answer. My gut says if McNair wouldn't eat a year of his contract after the 2010 collapse what has changed that would make us believe he'll do it now. My gut says it ain't gonna happen.

Other opinions??

Bob McNair would eat the salary if he felt it would greatly benefit the team - IMO.

2010 - CBA delaying the offseason, offense was good, defense was terrible, Wade Phillips added, 5 one score losses (including some last second losses) and the fact that a coach change doesn't guarantee better results.

2013 - team is underperforming in all areas, qb play has been terrible, only 2 wins could easily be 2 losses, offense can't score tds.

The team may still have to bomb the rest of the season (like 2-7) for Kubiak to lose his job. McNair likes stability. I think Kubiak stays if this team plays hard, wins 4-5 more games and shows hope for the future. Should he be gone no matter what happens after this start? That's up for debate.

 

[Rey]

I think our WR talent is ok. I don't think Schaub has done a good job using it.

 

[eriadoc]

I think our WR talent is ok. I don't think Schaub has done a good job using it.

I'm beginning to think that as well. Last week we had Posey and Jean catching passes. I didn't think Jean even played WR here anymore.

 

[dalemurphy]

steelb,

I've been asking this question every time I could get it in edgewise and still haven't gotten a response. I hope someone will hop in here and give an honest answer. My gut says if McNair wouldn't eat a year of his contract after the 2010 collapse what has changed that would make us believe he'll do it now. My gut says it ain't gonna happen.

Other opinions??

Sure. I have immense respect for McNair and am grateful that he runs the organization I root for. I would love to offer my thoughts about this:

Bob McNair is not a penny-pinching owner. Evidence of that is that the Texans have always spent near the salary cap, while some team owners abused the system prior to the new CBA and were often $20-$40 million under the cap- and not for tactical reasons. Furthermore, Kubiak's contract is insignificant related to the yearly expenses of the organization... From a financial standpoint, McNair is clear that a winning team will make him much more profit, even carrying around the salary of a fired coach, than a losing team will.
* So, the first point is to realize McNair kept Kubiak after the 2010 season for reasons unrelated to his contract. Realize and accept the fact that McNair is more invested (in every way) to the success of the Texans than you are. Therefore, it is safe to asssume that his decisions are based on the team's success, even when you don't understand or agree with them.

Furthermore, I think McNair has earned respect for his decision-making based on everything we have seen/know about his life before and during his time with the Texans. That does not mean his decisions are always right. It also does not mean we can't or shouldn't second-guess them. It simply means we should assume that he has a working model for making decisions that is healthy, successful, and its foundation is built on principles that are good... not perfect, and he is prone to errors in judgement and execution, just like the rest of us.

I think 2010's decision exemplifies my point that McNair's decision-making deserves respect. Even I, an ardent supporter of Kubiak, was ready to go head coach shopping. McNair evaluated everything and decided, at significant risk to his finances and team's success, to stay the course with Kubiak while making some moderate adjustments to the organizational structure. Nothing about that decision was popular, conventional, or motivated by greed- he was losing the fan base instead of building it. However, he believes in consistency and does not view things as a reactionary, nor does he act on a wave of emotion, nor does he make decisions to gain popularity in media or among fans... all of those are good, strong traits for a leader. Clearly, he sees things in Kubiak that many of us do not and those things were not shaken beyond repair in 2010.

McNair has spoken at length about his desire to create a successful, stable model for the Texans. Twice in the history of the Texans organization, the team has had a season where it has retreated from forward growth/improvement (it happened in 2005 and again in 2010)... After 2005, he totally cleaned house and brought in a new group of people (great decision). Between 2006-2009 the team made clear progress winning games, developing talent and youth, repairing the salary cap, etc... While not rapid progress, many football people expected the team to become a contender in 2010. Instead, the team, after a 4-2 start, fell apart.

(another important truth to accept as a Texan fan is that McNair is patient. Immediate results are not a primary factor in his decisions. He is forward-looking- always concerned with how a decision today will effect results in three or four years. You don't have to share that philosophy or agree with it. However, it is important to understand that to avoid making the wrong conclusions about "why" he made a decision, or didn't)

Armed with the knowledge of what happened when he made the changes after 2005, he chose to stay the course, despite experiencing the benefit of changing up the organization 4 years earlier... Like it or not, that decision paid significant dividends for the organization. The Texans won two division championships and two playoff games in the two seasons since... While the results do not prove that his decision to keep Kubiak was "the right one", it does illustrate the decision was far from irrational or poor... whether or not you agree with it.

So, barring a reversal in fortune this season, which includes winning 7 or 8 of the final 9 games, he will (for a third time as Texans owner), find himself at the fork in the road, determining what to do about the regression of his football team. So far, he has made sweeping organizational changes once and chosen to make minor organizational changes once. In both instances, we (as fans) immediately experienced the positive benefit of those huge decisions- being rewarded with a dramatically better product on the field in both instances, with more hope and optimism as well.

Personally, I am looking forward to the re-evaluation process. I am confident that the failings of the season's end in 2012 and this season will be addressed at season's end, and I anticipate the organization will be stronger and the product will be better as a result- I don't know what will be done. Whether Kubiak will be fired, Rick Smith, etc... I am confident McNair will take action to correct the problems he recognizes while minimizing the chances of creating greater problems.

Here's my best guess:

If the Texans finish with a losing record, Gary Kubiak will step down within two weeks of the season's end. McNair will shower him with praise and gratitude, and it will be genuine. I believe Rick Smith will remain in place as the GM, and he and McNair will work together on the head coaching search, which will not be Wade Phillips.

If the Texans finish with 8 or 9 wins (but out of the playoffs), I have no idea what will happen.

Overall, I am fairly convinced that McNair has confidence in Rick Smith and has (in some manner) worked with Rick in anticipation of a time with Kubiak is no longer with the organization. I think Kubiak was given the 2011 season largely to give McNair and Smith time to prepare. In other words, McNair does not want to blow everything up again. He wants stability and believes and likes the current system/philosophy that Kubiak brought here in 2006. I think he also sees Kubiak's limitations as a head coach. Rick Smith does not have those same limitations, and I think he recognizes that Rick Smith has steadily become a better GM and is a stronger decision-maker who has the potential to be a great GM. However, because of Smith's youth and inexperience, he was not ready to fully take over the organization, go through the hiring process, bring in "his" people, all in the midst of the lockout after 2010.

I actually think that Kubiak's ultimate fate this year will come down to Rick Smith's recommendation to McNair... ironic, totally unprovable. However, that is what I think. Furthermore, Smith is cold and calculating enough to cut Kubiak loose.

 

[Texian]

steelb,

I've been asking this question every time I could get it in edgewise and still haven't gotten a response. I hope someone will hop in here and give an honest answer. My gut says if McNair wouldn't eat a year of his contract after the 2010 collapse what has changed that would make us believe he'll do it now. My gut says it ain't gonna happen.

Other opinions??

Fan support or lack of or let's say fan uprising against Kubiak would be a major factor in Bob's decision. He can't afford to lose the fans.

 

[drs23]

Thanks for all the well thought out and presented responses. I agree with most of the takes. I, like the rest of us here, don't have a real handle on what's going on in McNair's mind but I do know he wants to field a winner and will do what he believes is necessary to get there. My main question though is answered. That being will the boss eat a year of contract? Seems like the answer is a resounding yes.

I just want the team to continue to improve and bring Tiffany to H-town.

Whatever it takes.

Go Texans!

 

[infantrycak]

My main question though is answered. That being will the boss eat a year of contract? Seems like the answer is a resounding yes.

McNair ate $1.9 mil to fire Capers so I am not sure why there was any debate on this.

 

[drs23]

McNair ate $1.9 mil to fire Capers so I am not sure why there was any debate on this.

Well, you know...'cause McNair is cheep.

j/k

 

[Texecutioner]

I actually think that Kubiak's ultimate fate this year will come down to Rick Smith's recommendation to McNair... ironic, totally unprovable. However, that is what I think. Furthermore, Smith is cold and calculating enough to cut Kubiak loose.

When are you ever going to wake up from this dream world you continue to paint yourself in with this regime? Every year there are all these high expectations for the Texans from you whether it's these players that haven't proven anything in the NFL, or that Kubiak is going to make all of these changes with how he handles situations and players, or whether Rick Smith is going to be this shrewd GM that becomes the benchmark around the league? Every year it's the same song and dance when we start the season from you and then when all these failures start happening even in our better seasons it's always all of this stuff that is just on the players but never the coaching staff or the GM. And what have you not paid attention to as far as the relationship between Rick Smith and Kubiak? Those two are attached at the hip and that is the biggest problem with this organization. The HC appointed his own boss. Rick Smith wouldn't have gotten this job if it weren't for Kubiak, and Smith will never be the guy to tell Bob to cut him loose. If he were this shrewd GM like you always like to suggest he would have done that the season where we went 6-10, because we've wasted a 3rd season now with Kubiak making pretty much all of your feel good posts about Kubiak over the years fall very flat.

I'm sorry, but I'll never understand the hero worship that some of you fans get with coaches who you've never had a personal relationship with when at the same time you're supposed to want a winning team that can go all the way potentially. Constantly making twisted excuses for a failed regime after 8 seasons is no different then a battered woman who makes excuses for her husband who beats on her every night after he downs a bottle. It's that constant denial of ever wanting to believe that something is wrong or isn't on the right track.

 

[Texecutioner]

McNair ate $1.9 mil to fire Capers so I am not sure why there was any debate on this.

You'd call firing a coach who went 2-14 in his 4th season a sign that he isn't cheap all because he spent 1.9 mill to get rid of him?