Richard Justice's comments on Chris Palmer on 610 This Morning

[rhc564]

I believe the best example of Palmer's questionable play calling occurred in
the Patriots game in '03. With the score tied and time running out in regulation, the Pats punted and we got possession at the Pats 35yd line-
a 53yd field goal attempt right then if we do nothing. On 1st down, the
Texans run a pitchout sweep to Mack, our slowest back, and we get an
8yd loss--out of field goal range, now. Our final play on this drive is a hail
mary throw...all the Texans had to do was stay put or just 'inch' forward
to try and win with a field goal---incredible!!!

 

[Porky]

When can we expect that analysis, Porky?

When

Also, as RHC mentioned, the other analyis piece to this is time left on the clock and the field position. Many times, we have chose to "run out the clock" with plenty of time to attack at the end of halves, or didn't aggresively attack in the fourth quarter. Also, we need to know what the score is during each play run. Stats alone never tell the whole story.

I herby decree Lucky to spend the next 12 days locked in a bare room with one overhead light, nothing but twinkies, and the occasional mounds or Almond Joy when he feels nutty, and a stack of papers ten feet high from the first three years with each play diagramed out, along with the down/distance/score/field postition/qtr/ and time remaining. I want this in spiral form on my desk in 12 days buster, or forget about that raise!

 

[TheOgre]

The oven was preheated to about 350 degrees. Chris Palmer has been in it for about 2 years. You might want to check it soon. I think he is close to done.

 

[infantrycak]

I believe the best example of Palmer's questionable play calling occurred in
the Patriots game in '03. With the score tied and time running out in regulation, the Pats punted and we got possession at the Pats 35yd line-
a 53yd field goal attempt right then if we do nothing. On 1st down, the
Texans run a pitchout sweep to Mack, our slowest back, and we get an
8yd loss--out of field goal range, now. Our final play on this drive is a hail
mary throw...all the Texans had to do was stay put or just 'inch' forward
to try and win with a field goal---incredible!!!

Well, close. First it was Domanick Davis--Mack didn't play in that game--and it was a 5 yard loss not 8. Second, it was not at the end of regulation, it was in overtime. There were about 5 minutes left in OT which as you know is sudden death. 52 yd field goal range when they got possession. Several people have questioned the 2nd down running play--why don't you question the 1st down running play that got no gain? 52 yds is no chip shot and the ball was at the right hash mark making it that much harder. I just don't get the criticism on that call. DD had lost yardage on only one of the prior 23 rushing attempts. Even if the play gains nothing but gets it to the hashmark you have made it much easier for Brown--gain 2-4 and get it on the left hash mark and you may have given Brown a 15-20% better chance at winning the game.

 

[ojthecat]

Guys 5 year plan remember?

1st year = 3 wins
2nd year = 5 wins
3rd year = 7 wins

4th year => 9 wins

This is where we are supposed to be according to plan. You can blame Palmer fo everything if you want but he is doing a fine job. The coaches can't block and tackle. We are no longer an expansion team and this will be the first year that you can give a true evaluation of the Coaches. This is the first year that we have enough of our players to realistally make the playoffs.

I say we will be in the playoffs this year and I for one can't wait for the excitment of playoff football in Reliant Stadium.

 

[infantrycak]

I think part of the reason for this perception is that we seem to often call a running play when a pass is clearly called for. How many off tackle run plays have been called on 3rd and 8 in the Texans first three years? :brickwall

Maybe it won't take 12 days for Lucky after all, at least for last year.

Domanick Davis had ZERO rushing attempts on 3rd down and 8-10 yds. He had one for on 3rd and 11+. Even on 3rd and 3-7 he only had 7 attempts on which he by the way averaged 8.9 yds.

Seems like there needs to be a new theory on why people perceive run, run, pass.

 

[beerlover]

just what is the average job span for coaches in the NFL. I'll bet 4 years beats the average

 

[infantrycak]

just what is the average job span for coaches in the NFL. I'll bet 4 years beats the average

Entering the 1980 season, NFL coaches had been with their current teams an average of 4.61 seasons. Going into the '03 campaign, the current contingent of head coaches has logged just 2.75 seasons of previous experience with his current franchise

Link

 

[Rightnow]

I don't know about most of you, but I haven't missed a home game yet and every game I can predict at least 85% of the play calls. I played ball for a number of years, but in no way am I a football genius. If I can predict that many calls, where does the problem lie?

You took the words right out of my mouth.

The second huge problem is the lack of adjustments at half time.

 

[beerlover]

Link

thanks cak, thats about what I thought. here is a quote from the article that bascily sums up this entire fire Palmer thread,

“ Everybody wants to win now. If you don't, the owner is going to find someone else he thinks can get it done, that's just a fact of life.” ​

 

[infantrycak]

Follow up on the running on clear passing downs post:

In the last two season DD has run:

4 times on 3rd and 11+ yds
4 times on 3rd and 8-10 yds
13 times on 3rd and 3-7 yds
23 times on 3rd and less than 3

Let's compare David Carr's passing (I'll include David's rushing plays except on less than 3 because they were called passing plays which is the point of the discussion):

59 attempts on 3rd and 11+ yds
56 attempts on 3rd and 8-10 yds
110 attempts on 3rd and 3-7 yds
22 attempts on 3rd and less than 3

So % wise:
3rd and 11+--run 6.3%, pass 93.7%
3rd and 8-10--run 6.7%, pass 93.3%
3rd and 3-7--run 10.5 %, pass 89.5%
3rd and less than 3--run 51%, pass 49%

The only scenario where running plays a significant role on 3rd down is 3rd and less than 3--where, by the way, DD has averaged 6.9 ypc on those plays.

 

[rhc564]

I know you thrive on stats and maybe some day that will somehow translate
into wins for the Texans! Last year, the Texans were in the bottom half in
the AFC in every major offensive category, a few are
3rd down conversions-11
total offense-11
scoring offense-13
time of possession-11
penalties-11
penalty yards-11

These are just a few and are out of 16 teams. I'm making no claims here
but I do have a lot of time on my hands---you like stats, let's see what I
can find...

 

[Porky]

You know what they say - figures lie, and liars figure.

All I can tell you is the anecdotal evidence is that we run a more conservative offense than most. This can be like that for many reasons, some perfectly legit. But, if you are arguing that the Texans run a wide open offense, well see above. Stats don't always tell the whole story. I watch the games, and come away with my own impressions. I don't need a bunch of figures on paper to tell me what I just watched. Nice work though. I owe you some twinkies, and Almond Joy bars.

 

[infantrycak]

You know what they say - figures lie, and liars figure.

All I can tell you is the anecdotal evidence is that we run a more conservative offense than most. This can be like that for many reasons, some perfectly legit. But, if you are arguing that the Texans run a wide open offense, well see above. Stats don't always tell the whole story. I watch the games, and come away with my own impressions. I don't need a bunch of figures on paper to tell me what I just watched. Nice work though. I owe you some twinkies, and Almond Joy bars.

Where did you see anything in what I posted about a wide open offense? It was posited that the Texans ran quite a bit when they should be throwing and the 3rd and 8 scenario was given. Cute quips about stats & figures aside, the answer was zero last year. Really no arguing or interpreting that stat.

Anecdotal evidence and impressions are all well and good, if they are correct. Unfortunately, if you hang out with a bunch of folks giving their impressions or anecdotes that the Texans run every 1st and 2nd down (something disproven after virtually ever game the last two years) you will be misled. Likewise if you listen to all the impressions or anecdotes around here about the Texans running a draw play every 3rd and 8 you'll get misled as well. Just like with stats, anecdotes and impressions have to be cross-checked otherwise you get garbage in=garbage out.

By the way, anecdotally, breast implants and molds cause hundreds of different illnesses. Anecdotally, George Bush kept the columbian drug cartels in business for several years.

 

[jacquescas]

i'll say it again and again we passed on 2 day 2 gems on offensive line with elton brown going in the 4th and chris kemoautua going in the 6th either or both would have helped immensely in the interior part of the line.

 

[rhc564]

Carr's 1st 8 games 2004
2162yds/9tds/5int/21sacks

Carr's 2nd 8 games 2004
1377yds/7tds/9int/28sacks

-Carr averaged over 270ypg the first half, only 172ypg the second half.
-Carr had more int the 2nd half than TDs
-Carr had about 1 more sack per game the 2nd half, with 16/28 coming
against the Colts(2 games) and Browns
-Carrs lowest yardage out put of the year came against Cleveland (114)

So, why did the offense regress the 2nd half? The thinking on this board
is that the OL will be better this year--maybe it will be--but is that the
whole story here?