Report: Texans 'trying hard' to deal top pick

[Lucky]

I don't think this trade happens.

Neither do I.

Most people have the Rams taking Robinson. I can see the Bills wanting to beat them to him.

Edit: Belay my last, Just saw they drafted Cordy Glenn in 2012.

The Rams also re-signed Roger Saffold and have Jake Long signed through 2016. I doubt they're looking at OT. They're probably want out of #2 more than the Texans want out of #1.

They have to be targeting Kahlil Mack. He's from Buffalo. How often do you have a top tier talent from upstate New York? He's one of the few picks they might not have trouble retaining!

Mack is actually from Florida. Even if here were from Buffalo, that would be similar logic to suggesting the Texans go after Manziel because he's from Texas.

What kind of package could the Bills offer to make it worth it?

While the draft table isn't the end all/be all for trading, the discrepancy between #1 and #9 is huge. I can't see the Bills mortgaging their next 2 drafts for one player. And I can't see the Texans moving that far down in the draft, even if they like all 3 QBs. Too risky all around.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

And who are all these players in later rounds that you think they should to target?.

This is a deep draft. Lots of good players in the later rounds.

You've got to worry about making the team TOO young, though. We've been through that with the Kiddy Corners situation a few years ago.

 

[Marshall]

Not the robbery that people here are going to want/expect. It won't be like the Redskins trade with us getting (3) 1st's and a 2nd.

I could see something like...

Texans Get:
1 (#9) 1350
2 (#41) 490
3 (#73) 225
2015 1st 420
2015 5th 14.6
-----
Total 2499.6

Bills Get:
1 (#1) 3000
4 (#101) 96
-----
Total 3096

We swap 1st's and get their 2nd. We swap our 4th with their 3rd and get their 2015 1st & 5th. According to the draft value chart the total is off by 3 points.

What chart are you using? I show a 596.4 point deficit for the Texans.

ps That's not to say we shouldn't do it because the chart is just a guide. But the chart shows the deficit making it more likely to not be considered too much for 1-1.

 

[revan]

This is a deep draft. Lots of good players in the later rounds.

You've got to worry about making the team TOO young, though. We've been through that with the Kiddy Corners situation a few years ago.

My exact thoughts. We do need depth but we also need that one key talented player that will be our franchise difference maker in the first round.

 

[bah007]

What chart are you using? I show a 596.4 point deficit for the Texans.

ps That's not to say we shouldn't do it because the chart is just a guide. But the chart shows the deficit making it more likely to not be considered too much for 1-1.

Situations like this is where you can see that the chart is outdated. We are robbing them in that trade and the chart shows us on the short end.

To move back just 8 spots in the 1st we get all this:

- Move up from #101 to #73 (28 spots)
- Additional 2nd round pick (#43)
- Their 1st round pick next year
- Their 5th round pick next year

I don't care what the chart says. We take that trade in a heartbeat. I might do it for even less than that even.

 

[Honoring Earl 34]

Situations like this is where you can see that the chart is outdated. We are robbing them in that trade and the chart shows us on the short end.

To move back just 8 spots in the 1st we get all this:

- Move up from #101 to #73 (28 spots)
- Additional 2nd round pick (#43)
- Their 1st round pick next year
- Their 5th round pick next year

I don't care what the chart says. We take that trade in a heartbeat. I might do it for even less than that even.

http://walterfootball.com/draft2014texansbills.php

 

[WolverineFan]

What chart are you using? I show a 596.4 point deficit for the Texans.

ps That's not to say we shouldn't do it because the chart is just a guide. But the chart shows the deficit making it more likely to not be considered too much for 1-1.

I must have valued the 2015 picks wrong. I valued the 2015 1st as 1,000 pts because that's what the #16 pick is worth. I use the 16th pick because it is right in the middle thus the average cost of a 1st round pick.

I guess that since it's a future pick the value is cut in half. I personally don't see it that way, but that might make up the discrepancy.

 

[Corrosion]

I must have valued the 2015 picks wrong. I valued the 2015 1st as 1,000 pts because that's what the #16 pick is worth. I use the 16th pick because it is right in the middle thus the average cost of a 1st round pick.

I guess that since it's a future pick the value is cut in half. I personally don't see it that way, but that might make up the discrepancy.

Generally future picks are valued at a round lower than their face value per year into the future. A first round pick next year would be valued as a 2nd , a first round pick two years out would be valued as a 3rd and so on.

 

[IDEXAN]

Situations like this is where you can see that the chart is outdated. We are robbing them in that trade and the chart shows us on the short end.

To move back just 8 spots in the 1st we get all this:

- Move up from #101 to #73 (28 spots)
- Additional 2nd round pick (#43)
- Their 1st round pick next year
- Their 5th round pick next year

I don't care what the chart says. We take that trade in a heartbeat. I might do it for even less than that even.

It's not outdated if it's a Draft with Andrew Luck and RGIII in it, but yea, it's irrevalant this year because those kind of QB prospects aren't there.

 

[IDEXAN]

They aren't trading up for Clowney. If somebody trades up with us or STL and takes Clowney then JAX will just take Mack and be perfectly content about it.

Jags run a 4-3 so Clowney is the edge-rusher for them while Mack would just be a non-pass rushing 4-3 OLB, and therefor not worth anything like the #3 overall. No doubt here, the Jags are interested in Clowney more than anybody else.

 

[ObsiWan]

If I were the Bills, & I wanted to trade up, I'm going with Clowney (they still run a 4-3 right?)

Mario & Clowney in a 4-3 would be sick.

I mean they'd make the defensive coordinator sick. They'll have to come up with some signal to let each other know which play they are going to take off.

That's cold dude.
MSR

j/k, I think Mario & Clowney would be fierce.... uh... we have to play the Bills this year don't we?

no you weren't

 

[WolverineFan]

Jags run a 4-3 so Clowney is the edge-rusher for them while Mack would just be a non-pass rushing 4-3 OLB, and therefor not worth anything like the #3 overall. No doubt here, the Jags are interested in Clowney more than anybody else.

Incorrect. Jaguars HC Gus Bradley was the Seahawks DC before he got the JAX job. They are transitioning the JAX defense to the same system he ran in Seattle. Mack would be used in the same way that Seattle used Bruce Irvin his rookie season. Also similar to the way Denver uses Von Miller (who was drafted #2 overall as a 4-3 OLB fyi).

Irvin had 8.0 sacks as a rookie. Miller has 35.0 sacks in 3 years. Hardly a non-pass rushing role. They also signed Chris Clemons and re-signed Jason Babin for the Leo (rush DE) position so Clowney is not necessarily a huge need although would be an upgrade.

Their starting SLB right now is Russell Allen (a 2009 UDFA). Mack would be a much bigger upgrade at SLB than Clowney would be at DE to be honest.

 

[IDEXAN]

Incorrect. Jaguars HC Gus Bradley was the Seahawks DC before he got the JAX job. They are transitioning the JAX defense to the same system he ran in Seattle. Mack would be used in the same way that Seattle used Bruce Irvin his rookie season. Also similar to the way Denver uses Von Miller (who was drafted #2 overall as a 4-3 OLB fyi).

Irvin had 8.0 sacks as a rookie. Miller has 35.0 sacks in 3 years. Hardly a non-pass rushing role. They also signed Chris Clemons and re-signed Jason Babin for the Leo (rush DE) position so Clowney is not necessarily a huge need although would be an upgrade.

Their starting SLB right now is Russell Allen (a 2009 UDFA). Mack would be a much bigger upgrade at SLB than Clowney would be at DE to be honest.

You certainly know their defense better than I do, but it sure sounds like quite an assortment of schemes, very much a hybrid defense if you've got both downlinemen and upright LBs rushing the passer from the edge. So which position(s) do they look to as the primary pass rusher ?
But I would still think the Jags would have a preference, even a strong preference for Clowney given he's the unquestioned top defensive talent and probably top overall talent in the Draft. Also I think Clowney projects favorably to OLB.

 

[bah007]

You certainly know their defense better than I do, but it sure sounds like quite an assortment of schemes, very much a hybrid defense if you've got both downlinemen and upright LBs rushing the passer from the edge. So which position(s) do they look to as the primary pass rusher ?
But I would still think the Jags would have a preference, even a strong preference for Clowney given he's the unquestioned top defensive talent and probably top overall talent in the Draft. Also I think Clowney projects favorably to OLB.

The Seattle defensive scheme likes to use a lot of 34 personnel in a 43 alignment.

They like to (but not always) two gap with their SDE, DT, and NT while leaving their Leo (WDE) and SLB to rush the passer. Therefore, the SLB is very important, as he occasionally has all the responsibilities of a SAM but also is required to be an impact pass rusher.

 

[WolverineFan]

You certainly know their defense better than I do, but it sure sounds like quite an assortment of schemes, very much a hybrid defense if you've got both downlinemen and upright LBs rushing the passer from the edge. So which position(s) do they look to as the primary pass rusher ?
But I would still think the Jags would have a preference, even a strong preference for Clowney given he's the unquestioned top defensive talent and probably top overall talent in the Draft. Also I think Clowney projects favorably to OLB.

It's extremely hybrid. It's a 4-3 alignment that plays more like a 3-4 and with a mix of 43 & 34 personnel. The major difference is they do not one-gap or two-gap straight across the board. The run stuffers two-gap and the pass rushers are set loose. The primary pass rushers are the Leo (weakside end), the SLB, and the 3' tech DT.

If you are familiar with the Seahawks from last year then you know that the Leo's last year were Chris Clemons and Michael Bennett (combined for 13.0 sacks), the 3' tech's were Tony McDaniel and Clinton McDonald (combined for 7.5 sacks), and the SLB's were Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin (combined for 10.0 sacks).

Looks a lot like a 3-4 right? Clowney would most definitely be a Leo in their scheme as a pure DE. Mack would be the SLB who, while a major pass rushing threat, is still a 4-3 OLB and must be able to cover TE's and the like. IMO, it's just the next evolution of defense. The Seahawks have managed to merge the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses and find both sets of personnel to fit it. They have taken merging athleticism with skill sets to the next level.

Btw, I agree about Clowney. He is the top talent. My original point was not that they would take Mack over Clowney, but that they would take Mack if Clowney was gone and not be that upset about it.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

Incorrect. Jaguars HC Gus Bradley was the Seahawks DC before he got the JAX job. They are transitioning the JAX defense to the same system he ran in Seattle. Mack would be used in the same way that Seattle used Bruce Irvin his rookie season. Also similar to the way Denver uses Von Miller (who was drafted #2 overall as a 4-3 OLB fyi).

Irvin had 8.0 sacks as a rookie. Miller has 35.0 sacks in 3 years. Hardly a non-pass rushing role. They also signed Chris Clemons and re-signed Jason Babin for the Leo (rush DE) position so Clowney is not necessarily a huge need although would be an upgrade.

Their starting SLB right now is Russell Allen (a 2009 UDFA). Mack would be a much bigger upgrade at SLB than Clowney would be at DE to be honest.

In the TT Mock, I didn't think I could pass up Clowney as the Jags. Yes, they have Babin for that same role but I don't see Babin as anything more than a placeholder in case they DON'T get someone younger for that role this year.

 

[_King_]

I don't see the jags passing on clowney. I think they are more likely to grab clowney then target a qb like Carr or garrapolo later.

 

[WolverineFan]

In the TT Mock, I didn't think I could pass up Clowney as the Jags. Yes, they have Babin for that same role but I don't see Babin as anything more than a placeholder in case they DON'T get someone younger for that role this year.

I don't think they would pass on Clowney either. I was stating my case for why Mack would be a perfect Plan B for them.

 

[Corrosion]

John Clayton says Atlanta is the likely trade partner.

Tedy Bruschi says you gotta take JdC.

Atlanta makes the most sense. They have one very obvious need and Clowney would fill that need.

The real question is if they are willing to pony up the assets to make that move as they also need to fix their OL , keeping their QB upright. Can they make the jump from 6 to 1 and solve that issue ?!

 

[The Pencil Neck]

I don't see the jags passing on clowney. I think they are more likely to grab clowney then target a qb like Carr or garrapolo later.

That's exactly what I did in the Texan's Talk Mock. I picked up Clowney, then OG Yankey, and then Garoppolo was sitting for me there in the third.

 

[IDEXAN]

It's extremely hybrid. It's a 4-3 alignment that plays more like a 3-4 and with a mix of 43 & 34 personnel. The major difference is they do not one-gap or two-gap straight across the board. The run stuffers two-gap and the pass rushers are set loose. The primary pass rushers are the Leo (weakside end), the SLB, and the 3' tech DT.

If you are familiar with the Seahawks from last year then you know that the Leo's last year were Chris Clemons and Michael Bennett (combined for 13.0 sacks), the 3' tech's were Tony McDaniel and Clinton McDonald (combined for 7.5 sacks), and the SLB's were Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin (combined for 10.0 sacks).

Looks a lot like a 3-4 right? Clowney would most definitely be a Leo in their scheme as a pure DE. Mack would be the SLB who, while a major pass rushing threat, is still a 4-3 OLB and must be able to cover TE's and the like. IMO, it's just the next evolution of defense. The Seahawks have managed to merge the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses and find both sets of personnel to fit it. They have taken merging athleticism with skill sets to the next level.

Btw, I agree about Clowney. He is the top talent. My original point was not that they would take Mack over Clowney, but that they would take Mack if Clowney was gone and not be that upset about it.

That's some good stuff there WolverineFan, I appreciate the elaboration !
But tell me, why does all of that "this is a 3-4 but it's really a 4-3" and vice versa make me nostalgic for Wade Phillips ?

 

[thunderkyss]

That's some good stuff there WolverineFan, I appreciate the elaboration !
But tell me, why does all of that "this is a 3-4 but it's really a 4-3" and vice versa make me nostalgic for Wade Phillips ?

That's pretty much the way Wade lined them up. The only difference, is that neither the center or the 5 tech had two gap responsibilities. They'd attack one gap or the other (most likely the side they were shaded to) & the ILBs would fill the extra gaps. The Will would hit that weak-side A gap & The Mike would hit the strong-side B gap.

Which is why I've always said Antonio Smith is really playing an UT position (a 3 tech) & not a DE. Like John Randle, or Warren Sapp.

Wade lined them up just like that, except the Leo was an OLB, whether it was Mario, Connor, or Whitney.

A traditional 3-4, the DEs are lined up directly over the tackles. Not at all like that picture. Your NT is lined up directly over the NT. The ILBs are lined up over the guards, but 5 yards off the LOS.

Unlike most, I don't believe this is going to hurt Jj's production. He wasn't trying to get to the QB on every play. Some plays he was setting the edge, some plays he was penetrating, some plays he was "taking up blockers" it's going to be the same thing with RAC.

As long as he continues to learn the game, study tendencies, & predict what our opponent wants to do, he'll get better & better at stopping them.

 

[Marshall]

I must have valued the 2015 picks wrong. I valued the 2015 1st as 1,000 pts because that's what the #16 pick is worth. I use the 16th pick because it is right in the middle thus the average cost of a 1st round pick.

I guess that since it's a future pick the value is cut in half. I personally don't see it that way, but that might make up the discrepancy.

It must be. I use the middle of the next round for future picks for each year in the future:
2015 1st = 2014 2-16 = 420
2016 1st = 2014 3-16 = 190
2017 1st = 2014 4-16 = 62
2018 1st = 2014 5-16 = 29
2019 1st = 2014 6-16 = 15
2020 1st = 2014 7-16 = 2.7

2015 2nd = 2014 3-16 = 190
2016 2nd = 2014 4-16 = 62
2017 2nd = 2014 5-16 = 29
2018 2nd = 2014 6-16 = 15
2019 2nd = 2014 7-16 = 2.7
etc.

 

[Playoffs]

Jeremiah: Sammy Watkins could be target for aggressive 49ers

 

[kiwitexansfan]

Would you trade 1:1 to the 49ers?

49ers = six picks in the first three rounds: one in Round 1, two in Round 2 and three in Round 3

 

[Corrosion]

Would you trade 1:1 to the 49ers?

49ers = six picks in the first three rounds: one in Round 1, two in Round 2 and three in Round 3

No way , #30 is just too far back. I'd find it hard for them to come up with a package that I'd be tempted to take.


I think there are 6 or so premium players in this draft and would be hard pressed to make a move back that didn't guarantee me one of those players.

 

[kiwitexansfan]

No way , #30 is just too far back. I'd find it hard for them to come up with a package that I'd be tempted to take.


I think there are 6 or so premium players in this draft and would be hard pressed to make a move back that didn't guarantee me one of those players.

I've seen enough premium players bust that I'm starting to form the opinion that quantity is a quality all of its own.

Where did we draft JJ Watt again?

Demeco Ryans?

 

[Playoffs]

Would you trade 1:1 to the 49ers?

For me there'd have to be another trade/team involved to keep us picking high. Posted more for context/competition for tradeups targeting specific players. More players & teams, better for us I think.

 

[thetexanator]

For me there'd have to be another trade/team involved to keep us picking high. Posted more for context/competition for tradeups targeting specific players. More players & teams, better for us I think.

if they throw in eric reid, id do it.

 

[Corrosion]

I've seen enough premium players bust that I'm starting to form the opinion that quantity is a quality all of its own.

Where did we draft JJ Watt again?

Demeco Ryans?

Sure there are good & even great players found throughout the draft and the top prospects can be busts , but when you have the chance to add those top talents & you get it right , they are franchise altering.

If you screw it up now , its not near the problem it was before rookie slotted salaries.


The 49ers just don't have the assets to move up to #1 .... Would you take their 1st & second this year and next years #1 ?? I just don't think that's enough considering their picks are at the tail end of each round and they project to be very good again next year. I probably wouldn't do it for 30 & two future #1's when those picks are very likely to be 25 or later.
If a team closer to the top or middle of the draft makes a similar offer , I would definitely have to consider it strongly , but 30 is just too far down.

 

[kiwitexansfan]

Sure there are good & even great players found throughout the draft and the top prospects can be busts , but when you have the chance to add those top talents & you get it right , they are franchise altering.

If you screw it up now , its not near the problem it was before rookie slotted salaries.


The 49ers just don't have the assets to move up to #1 .... Would you take their 1st & second this year and next years #1 ?? I just don't think that's enough considering their picks are at the tail end of each round and they project to be very good again next year. I probably wouldn't do it for 30 & two future #1's when those picks are very likely to be 25 or later.
If a team closer to the top or middle of the draft makes a similar offer , I would definitely have to consider it strongly , but 30 is just too far down.

If they offered me their frist 6 picks, yeah I would take it.

 

[JB]

If they offered me their frist 6 picks, yeah I would take it.

Plus next years 1&2

 

[Texecutioner]

If I were the Bills, & I wanted to trade up, I'm going with Clowney (they still run a 4-3 right?)

Mario & Clowney in a 4-3 would be sick.


I mean they'd make the defensive coordinator sick. They'll have to come up with some signal to let each other know which play they are going to take off.


j/k, I think Mario & Clowney would be fierce.... uh... we have to play the Bills this year don't we?

Yep, one of the laziest defensive lineman I've ever watched pairing with his protege who is even more lazy. It would be par the course for the Buffalo Bills management as far as their off season usually goes. I'd love to see this happen.

 

[Honoring Earl 34]

Yep, one of the laziest defensive lineman I've ever watched pairing with his protege who is even more lazy. It would be par the course for the Buffalo Bills management as far as their off season usually goes. I'd love to see this happen.

New York Slack Exchange .

 

[Texecutioner]

New York Slack Exchange .

Actually I prefer to see Clowney go to the Jags. Let them waste another year on Gabbert and the other rejects.

 

[kiwitexansfan]

Plus next years 1&2

If they offered future picks I'd be running to the podium.

 

[drs23]

Actually I prefer to see Clowney go to the Jags. Let them waste another year on Gabbert and the other rejects.

I'm pretty sure Gabbert doesn't work there any longer.

 

[The Pencil Neck]

New York Slack Exchange .

msr

 

[IDEXAN]

No way , #30 is just too far back. I'd find it hard for them to come up with a package that I'd be tempted to take.


I think there are 6 or so premium players in this draft and would be hard pressed to make a move back that didn't guarantee me one of those players.

I see DE/OLB Clowney, OT Robinson, WR Watkins, & maybe OLB Mack, so how do you come up with "6 or so" premium players ? But be it 4 or 6 or even 10 or whatever, I don't think the Texans need one of those premium players as much as they need "superior players", which I think they could get with Draft picks up thru the end of the second round.

 

[Texian]

Actually I prefer to see Clowney go to the Jags. Let them waste another year on Gabbert and the other rejects.

Jags traded Gabbert to SF.