For those that don't know me, I am a former RB coach. I coached the position at the HS level for 5 years, and travelled all over New England to coaching clinics and conferences to learn from the top coaches at the college level, as well as a few former NFL scouts. I know what to look for and what makes a RB a possible top talent in the NFL. I've been nailing RB rankings over the last 3 years (literally, almost 100% percent accurate) and figured that I'd up the ante by creating my own thread, instead of replying to other posts like I used to do. FWIW, I suck at QB, TE, & WR rankings. Help a brother out.
What I usually do is research RBs in late February. I judge them based on a series of criteria, each category weighted based on the importance level that I believe they deserve based on what it takes to succeed in the NFL. Then I ignore those rankings and do it again sometime in early April. I compare my values and see if I moved anyone up or down a lot in any 1 category (I rarely do) and then do one final analysis the week of the NFL draft when players start getting drafted. For example, it's incredibly important that a zone runner get drafted to a zone team. If they don't (*cough* Rashaad Penny *cough*) then I knock them down some points.
So without further ado, here are my rankings. I'm going to give 5 tiers: Must have's, Should be's, Could be's, Probably not's, and Definitely not's. The tiers aren't ranked in order. I'm not calling Holyfield better than Jacobs, for example. They are just in the same tier as of right now.
MUST HAVE'S (Success No Matter Where He's Drafted)
Miles Sanders - He's my highest ranked RB so far and it's not even close. He's a good 20% better than any other RB I ranked in this class. He has amazing body control, is shifty, can make defenders miss (and by this, I mean make them mess when they are right next to him, which is rare), is patient with his blocks, and has great vision. What gives me some concern is that his run to catch ratio is 10-1. Ideally you'd want a back who has a 4-1 ratio because they would be able to be on the field for all 3 downs. This isn't necessarily a bad thing though, it just wasn't a positive. He's also only touched the ball around 350 times total. There's a ton of tread on those tires, so I expect him to have a long and great career. He's my 1 and only sure-thing in this draft, so far. In comparison to last year, he would have been my 2nd highest rated RB. Sanders is primarily a zone runner in college but I believe he can succeed in any scheme.
I gotta post a video. Just WOW on this kid. You can literally take ANY game film and watch it and Sanders will do something amazing at some point. In the following video, Sanders will make amazing plays vs Wisconsin at 1:02, 2:44, and 5:20.
1:02 - He is running zone read from inside out. The inside A & B gaps are not there. He waits for blocking to occur outside instead of pushing for yards on a crucial down. He avoids 2 tackles and then hurdles a defender to make sure he secures a 1st down. Wow. This was only a 7 yard gain but it kept the offense on the field for another set of downs. It's plays like this that NFL teams need to improve their defense (yes, improve the defense by keeping the offense on the field).
2:44 - Inside zone. His incredible vision sees an opening about to occur and he makes the cut as it's happening. He finds himself surrounded by 3 defenders (pause it at 3:02) and makes a second cut to the outside to avoid everyone, outrunning defenders to the edge to make a great gain.
5:20 - This is more of a showcase of his vision than anything else. Another zone play, and a lot of RBs would take the easy way by running to the edge which is free and clear of defenders. Sanders is patient and waits for that extra split second for the hole to open up and he hits it hard. Makes another bonus move later on to gain an extra 15 yards after a forced miss tackle. God this guy is good.
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SHOULD BE'S (Success In Any System & Good Coaching)
Elijah Holyfield - This is the only other runner in the entire draft who can sink his hips like Sanders can, though not as well. He is a great zone RB and I also believe he can succeed in any scheme he's draft into. However, I don't think he avoids contact nearly enough, which may make him more prone to injury. He also DOESN'T CATCH THE BALL EVER, which means he might not be a reliable every-down back. He might find himself in a timeshare as a result, maybe 2-1 at best. RBs who don't catch the ball as a collegiate usually don't do so well at the next level. It'll depend how hard of a worker he is. He would be my #6 or #7 guy if he was in last years draft. He's worth a mid-to-late 1st, given the right location.
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COULD BE'S (Has To Be Drafted To The Right Blocking Scheme)
Josh Jacobs - I love his power and quickness in short space. This is a power runner with great hands out of the backfield (my highest rated in this category). He can take contact very well, but seems to initiate it a bit much for my liking. A RBs ability to stay healthy and extend their career is a big deal, so Jacobs will need to learn how to avoid contact when necessary rather than plow through guys when given the chance. Maybe his vision is suspect. If that's the case, he'll have greater success if he's drafted to a power-scheme, like with Baltimore, Tampa Bay, & Seattle. I'd take him in the late 1st if this happened. Otherwise, I don't really want anything to do with him.
2:07 - Here is a video that makes me doubt him as a runner a little bit. 3rd & 3, this is a straight zone run play. Auburn has 7 in the box vs 6 blockers for 'bama, but the point of the play is to block the guy ahead of you and let the RB pick his spot and outrun to the corner. The WRs are purposely running go routes outside of the DBs to clear the outside. All Jacobs has to do is a pick a side and go, left or right. Inexplicably Jacobs chooses to run INSIDE........ INSIDE!!!!!!!!........ IN-F*&#*NG-SIDE........ and ends up running into his own guys and a pile of others, and fails to convert.
Don't see it? Pause the video at 2:07 and hold down the . key. . is slow motion forward, , is slow motion reverse. If you watch, it seems like he starts to go to the right, like he's made his decision already, but then notices the safety coming down so he decided the best course of action is to cut up the middle..... on a 6v7.... I don't get it.
He made several run plays like this. Dude has skills, which is why I believe he'd be great in a power system because he doesn't have to think, all he has to do is run where the play is designed for him to run. Cleveland switched to that mid-season, which is why Chubb did so well in the 2nd half of the year. Sometimes the RB is a product of the system, and sometimes the system is the product of the RB. Jacobs would thrive if he were a product of the system.
SKIP TO 2:07
Myles Gaskin - I know. You might be thinking "WHO THE HELL IS MYLES GASKIN!?". Well lemme tell you what, this is the kind of guy you can draft in the 2nd or 3rd round and get yourself a starter almost immediately given the right system. We're had Tarik Cohen last year and James Conner the year before that. This years late-round pick is easily Myles Gaskins. He is a power runner with good quickness. He also has great hands and has been utilized somewhat to catch out the backfield. HOWEVER, he's touched the ball over 1000 times already, so his career may not last as long as others, but it does speak to his ability to stay healthy. You might be lucky enough to get him as late as the 3rd round.
EDIT: I've researched a lot more of this guy and had over an hour to watch slow-motion film. I've cooled down a bit as I noticed his vision isn't as great as I once thought. There are times he made suspect decisions and gave up on plays before they developed. His greatest success came on power plays. I still think he can play in any system and is still a good bargain for a late rounder, but he won't be a stud. He's the kind of guy you draft late and then flip for a 1st later on.
Devin Singletary - This rating is probably the one that makes me the most nervous. He's a zone runner with great hips & his ability to avoid contact, but he's also played against smaller conferences his entire career, so some of the things he's done on tape just looks better as a result. However, I said the same about David Johnson, and Devin should be given credit for performing well at his level. He doesn't catch a lot out of the backfield, which will limit his ability to stay on the field for all 3 downs. He could be good/useful in a timeshare on a zone-blocking scheme. If he goes to a power-team, he's going to be useless and I would avoid him at all costs. Otherwise, he's worth a pick in the 2nd round.
EDIT: Above is the original comment. I've had a chance to look at some more stuff closer up and... ok this guy is impressive. Quick feet, makes people miss, doesn't give up on plays (FAU was down to OU 59-0 and he was still playing hard) good vision, I only saw 1 mistake and that's probably due to the poor blocking he's had to deal with on that team, so when good blocking actually happened, it caught him off guard. He might be my #2 or #3 guy right now.
Alex Barnes (added 3/2) - One of the better receiving backs in the draft, maybe even the best. Good speed, good quickness, patient when he needs to be, explosive when he can be. Knows how to follow his blocks. The issue is that he doesn't necessarily excel at any one thing, but he's also not really bad at any one thing either. He takes what's given to him. His highlights show a lot of long runs where he's untouched, so that's a bad sign. I didn't find any spots in his film where he made people miss at the line of scrimmage, or make small moves to gain an extra 2-3 yards when guys are draped all over him. Kind of a red flag, but a good starting point so far.
Ryquell Armstead (added 3/2) - Powerful downhill runner. Really high motor guy who is good at protecting the ball, has quick feet. Doesn't catch the ball very well, so right now he's only good as the kind of guy who could spell a starter. If a team wants to carry the ball 25-30 times a game, Ryquell could be someone to get the ball for 5-10 of those touches. Maybe even the goal line back?
Jordan Scarlett (added 3/2) - Another back who is good-not-great in any one area. Great feet and good vision, gives him a chance to make the roster and even share some carries with the 1st team offense. Zone runner who is great at protecting the ball. Would fit well in a zone blocking scheme.
LJ Scott (added 3/2) - This might be one of the more intriguing players in the bunch. He lowers his hips very well (hard to find) and has some nifty moves in space. He also follows his blocks very well. I absolutely loved what I saw out of this guy..... HOWEVER...... he had poor vision. Several times in the zone blocking schemes he either wasn't patient enough, or didn't see the interior hole, or exterior lanes, etc. He needs to be coached up in a big way. I wouldn't expect him to be a starter in 2019. He NEEDS to go to a good situation, or he'll fade in irrelevancy.
James Williams (added 3/2) - Great hands out of the backfield, 3:2 ratio on runs to catches. He has great quickness and good vision, didn't sink his hips very well. I didn't like his ability as a between-the-tackles runner, but I very much liked what I saw for his ability to catch out of the backfield. This is a promising 3rd down back who could be a James White type guy. Really depends where he ends up.
