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Quarterback Ball Velocity at NFL Combine 2008-2014
- Thread starter Playoffs
- Start date
Things to think about:
1) the best prospects don't throw at the combine year after year so there is not enough context.
2) Isolating any single metric yields bad analysis..see the top 40 yards dashes and bench press
3) Despite 1 and 2, there is some velocity that the vast majority of successful QBs obtain. looks like around 53-54 MPH.
4) and yes I saw that Keenum threw as fast as Russell Wilson, but see number 2
1) the best prospects don't throw at the combine year after year so there is not enough context.
2) Isolating any single metric yields bad analysis..see the top 40 yards dashes and bench press
3) Despite 1 and 2, there is some velocity that the vast majority of successful QBs obtain. looks like around 53-54 MPH.
4) and yes I saw that Keenum threw as fast as Russell Wilson, but see number 2
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Looks like a weeding out stat if all you get is the number and no video. Anyone below 50 - red flag. Above that pretty much no correlation to success or functional arm strength. Basically any decent QB can load up and make the gun read in the 50's for a few throws. With the video you would be able to see Flacco doing it with ease v. a Schaub/Bortles having to load up to do it.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
According to Sports Science, a little bit of wobble is ideal:
http://www.totalprosports.com/2009/12/30/science-proves-drew-brees-throws-the-perfect-pass-video/
http://www.totalprosports.com/2009/12/30/science-proves-drew-brees-throws-the-perfect-pass-video/
Here's another thing to consider: Are the QBs being asked to throw at max velocity? Maybe Flacco was trying to show at the combine that he could throw with touch? Does anyone really think the guys with 55+ velocity have as good or better arm strength than Joe Flacco? I don't think so. It's pretty much a nothing stat. A scout (and maybe even fans like us) should be able to watch the games and determine if a QB has a strong arm or not.
Nearly every NFL scout will tell you that accuracy is more important that arm strength, but a QB still must be able to throw the ball down field, or better yet an effective "deep out" pattern to meet the minimum threshold for arm strength in the Pros. But I dunno for sure what those numbers are supposed to represent ?
I'm not too worried about velocity or 40 yard dash times for my traditional pocket passers. They'll all be able to throw the deep ball fairly well if they make it to the NFL. If I was looking at a play maker, gunslinging type, someone more likely to throw without a good base, arm strength & 40s are more important.
leebigeztx
Keep it Movin!
Guys with power arms,they just throw,but guys with something to prove probably try to show more arm talent. I used to have this discussion with 76texan about keenum. I've been in camp and stood with pat kirwan and solomon wilcots watching all 3 qb drop back at the same time and throw. It was clear Yates arm was clearly better than the other 2. When they were throwing the out routes to the sideline,Yates ball got there with more velocity and at a quicker rate than keenum and schaub.
Hervoyel
BUENO!
This. It's not a throwaway stat in that if you have a guy you like then you want to make sure he's in the over-50 group but past that you don't put too much emphasis on it.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
They shoot the same route every year. QBs don't try harder for the gun.
Everyone has a natural speed once they master the kinetic chain. Drew Brees is low 50s, but very accurate. Whoever said above is correct, accuracy is most important because it's most difficult to remedy.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I like to watch the film to see what's what with a qb's arm.
I've seen Schaub load up and really gun the ball at times, but I see a guy like Rodgers who zings the ball almost not even thinking about it. It's just how he throws.
Over the course of watching a guy on tape or seeing a guy in person, you can get a feel for the type of arm he has.
I've seen Schaub load up and really gun the ball at times, but I see a guy like Rodgers who zings the ball almost not even thinking about it. It's just how he throws.
Over the course of watching a guy on tape or seeing a guy in person, you can get a feel for the type of arm he has.
I think Yates has the most live arm out of the three, but you can't really go look at one drill and make a determination.
Guys could be focusing on different things in a drill. One guy could be really fresh or just feeling good. One guys arm can be sore from throwing a bunch the previous day. One guy might've gotten some last night and the other guy might've put his pet cat to sleep.
Also the target you're throwing to can affect your velocity. If you're throwing to a slower moving more deliberate target you might put the ball up for them...someone with great hands you might feel more comfortable just zinging it in on them.
Soreness really almost anywhere in the body can effect ball velocity. Especially in a practice setting where your adrenaline isn't flowing.
I'm not denying what you saw, but what you saw may not mean much at all. Not from one drill at one practice.
drs23
Veteran
Thanks for posting that PO. I feel much better now knowing :"a little bit of wobble is ideal". I seem to recall a little bit in my canter when leaving a few of my favorite watering holes late in the evening. Of coarse this is only noticed on my way to the passengers seat sitting next to my DD.
Thanks for posting that PO. I feel much better now knowing :"a little bit of wobble is ideal". I seem to recall a little bit in my canter when leaving a few of my favorite watering holes late in the evening. Of coarse this is only noticed on my way to the passengers seat sitting next to my DD.
And by the stop sign you may or may not avoid
I would love to get to hear the sound of TB/BB/JM/Garappolo/Met/Murray/ Smith's ball and see how much they had to load up to make the throw. This would tell me a large part of who my future QB would be.
Playoffs
Hall of Fame
The guy who publishes the information told me last year. If they try to overthrow their mechanics break down/miss the WR/looks bad. They're focused on footwork, fundamentals, and ball placement -- that's what pays the bills.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
Thanks for answering. Not sure I'm buying what he's selling but it's an answer.
I think a guy with a ? on his arm (Keenum, Schaub, Manziel, Bortles) is going to come in and push it harder than a guy with a big arm (Flacco, Mallett, Mettenberger) and that's why we see such a tight grouping of speeds.
Big arm -> concentrates on accuracy possibly sacrificing speed.
? arm -> concentrates on speed possibly sacrificing accuracy.
If a thrower tries to "over" throw their velocity typically drops. Sports performance is all about manipulating tense to create force. One of the things you'll find with elite athletes, it's not just how much tension they can produce in working muscles it's also how quite the antagonistic muscles are as well. Effectively everything is working in concert. If you try to over throw then the muscles that are supposed to be shut off and up being tensed as well creating an opposing force thus reducing the total output.
For example, using completely arbitrary numbers, if a thrower stays relaxed and loose when throwing, his tricep may fire at an 8 while the tension in his bicep drops to a 1. If the same guy over throws, his tricep may fire at a 8.5 but his bicep is now at a 2.5-3 so the net result is indeed lower. This can happen all along the kinetic chain as well
For example, using completely arbitrary numbers, if a thrower stays relaxed and loose when throwing, his tricep may fire at an 8 while the tension in his bicep drops to a 1. If the same guy over throws, his tricep may fire at a 8.5 but his bicep is now at a 2.5-3 so the net result is indeed lower. This can happen all along the kinetic chain as well
Texian
Hall of Fame
I agree and I think this also works for bat speed, club head speed, arm speed. And I think it is the reason why you are always hearing athletes getting advice to relax and stay loose.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
We aren't talking some immutable law of nature like the speed of light here folks. People can clearly change the velocity of all the things being mentioned. They also balance considerations of speed and accuracy.
otisbean - that is not a denial that the effects you are describing do come into play in some instances.
otisbean - that is not a denial that the effects you are describing do come into play in some instances.
Velocity can certianly change, but over trying in velocity based events typically leads to a reduction in performance. The key is to learn to increase the primary muscles ability to create tension (specifically explosive strength as you have a limited time to apply force) and motor control to properly activate and reactive the appropriate muscles. Elite athletes can just do this naturally, this why they often look effortless when performing.
It's interesting, this bleeding of tension into other muscles actually helps strength based event, for example trying to squeeze the bar as hard as possible when benching or dead lifting.
It's interesting, this bleeding of tension into other muscles actually helps strength based event, for example trying to squeeze the bar as hard as possible when benching or dead lifting.
I agree with this.
I think it's really simple actually. A guy can put a little extra on the ball in a game when he feels like he needs to.
When a guy is in a game and he sees a window that he needs to squeeze the ball into he puts some extra extra on it.
Now if a guy is jacking up his mechanics so bad that the ball is actually coming out slower, that's something else. That's nerves or something.
But to imply that guys can't put more on the ball when they feel they need to is kind of ridiculous.
I don't think anybody is saying an athlete can't put a little more into something, whether it's throwing a pass, hitting a serve in tennis or sprinting. In these instances the necessary muscles fire with a bit more oomph and the motor control is still there to control tension. Where you get into problems is when you over try and motor control is reduced.
Think of it this way, you have maximum effort and operational effort. If a QBs maximum velocity is 62mph, he's not throwing every pass at 62, even on hard throws or in cases of squeezing the ball into windows, he may be operating at 59-60mph. It's when he tries to throw 65mph that he'll run into the issues I'm talking about.
infantrycak
Hall of Fame
I don't think we are actually disagreeing. If so, it is on whether the QBs have entered the over trying zone on these velocity measurements. Maybe some have but I don't think that is generally the case.
To me this is akin to Spinal Tap. I'm talking about turning the amp up from 8 to 10 (with 8 being the most accurate setting) and you are talking about trying to turn it to 11.
This.
Of course a guy trying to conjur the power of the gods in his arm can look foolish
CloakNNNdagger
Hall of Fame
Nice concise presentation!