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Projecting 53 Man Roster to Predict focus of the Texans' Draft

dalemurphy

dalemurphy

Hall of Fame
IF we look at the roster after all the activity in free agency, it should inform us as the position areas on the team that Nick still plans to add talent to. So, I would like to start this "roster/depth chart" with my assumptions and then adjust/edit it as new information/players are added or removed to the team.

K/P/LS= Fairbairn, Townsend, Weeks

QB
Stroud
Mills
Keenum

RB
Mixon
Pierce
?

WR
Collins
Dell
Diggs
NBrown
Metchie
Hutchinson
Robert Woods

TE/FB
Schultz
B.Jordan
A.Beck

OL
Tunsil
Howard (PUP candidate?)
Kenyon Green
Kendrick Green
Scruggs
Patterson
S.Mason
Heck
Sharpe


DL
Will Anderson
Autry
M.Edwards
D.Hunter
Barnett
Fukasaki
Settle
KDavis
Horton (PUP or IR?)
M.Sanders
Hinish

LB
Shaair
D Phillips
C. Harris
To'o to'o
Hansen
Hewitt

DBs (We have lots of CB/S tweener types. I thought it easier to just lump them all together for now)
Stingley
Pitre
JWard
EMurray
Okudah
CJ Henderson
MBryant
MFord
LJohnson
D.King
MJStewart

I have listed, above, players signed to new contracts of some significance (paid like an NFL contributor this off-season) or players from 2023 who are expected to have some role on the team in 2024. I look at this and it occurs to me that we will definitely be adding to the RB room, the LB room, and probably TE room... Beyond that, every addition to a player position very likely means a one of the bolded players will are not in the team plans for 2024... This is one reason why I think it is likely we will see some 2024 picks converted to 2025 picks... Thoughts?
 
Last edited:
dalemurphy said:
IF we look at the roster after all the activity in free agency, it should inform us as the position areas on the team that Nick still plans to add talent to. So, I would like to start this "roster/depth chart" with my assumptions and then adjust/edit it as new information/players are added or removed to the team.

K/P/LS= Fairbairn, Townsend, Weeks

QB
Stroud
Mills
Keenum

RB
Mixon
Pierce
?

WR
Collins
Dell
Diggs
NBrown
Metchie
Hutchinson
Robert Woods

TE/FB
Schultz
B.Jordan
A.Beck

OL
Tunsil
Howard (PUP candidate?)
Kenyon Green
Kendrick Green
Scruggs
Patterson
S.Mason
Heck
Sharpe


DL
Will Anderson
Autry
M.Edwards
D.Hunter
Barnett
Fukasaki
Settle
KDavis
Horton (PUP or IR?)
M.Sanders
Hinish

LB
Shaair
D Phillips
C. Harris
To'o to'o
Hansen
Hewitt

DBs (We have lots of CB/S tweener types. I thought it easier to jump lump them all together for now)
Stingley
Pitre
JWard
EMurray
Okudah
CJ Henderson
MBryant
MFord
LJohnson
D.King
MJStewart

I have listed, above, players signed to new contracts of some significance (paid like an NFL contributor this off-season) or players from 2023 who are expected to have some role on the team in 2024. I look at this and it occurs to me that we will definitely be adding to the RB room, the LB room, and probably TE room... Beyond that, every addition to a player position very likely means a one of the bolded players will are not in the team plans for 2024... This is one reason why I think it is likely we will see some 2024 picks converted to 2025 picks... Thoughts?
Click to expand...


Good post. It’s good to flesh out the roster like this. I would say the biggest “depth holes” are RB3 and TE3. Do you not think Quitoriano makes the team as the Y TE? At any rate, they need to add talent to the room. If Schultz goes down I don’t have confidence in that group.

RB3 is not on the roster. This can be found in the draft or on the street. They have to play special teams to make the team.

Then there are the positions you want to improve. You may not necessarily have the person you want there but you do have a body.

To me that’s swing OT, DT, and CB2. Actually might throw safety and LB in there too. We have the starters but we want the depth to be more reliable. This is where you draft for BPA and just add the most talented players to your room.

There is not a position on the roster where I think the Texans NEED a starter. That’s a lot to ask of a rookie. Much less one picked day 2.
 
My thought is we need to see what happens in the draft and other moves around the draft to actually make a guess at the 53 man roster. But I will say the WR room will include a return man. And I cannot see another season of Davis Mills on this roster.
 
Lucky said:
My thought is we need to see what happens in the draft and other moves around the draft to actually make a guess at the 53 man roster. But I will say the WR room will include a return man. And I cannot see another season of Davis Mills on this roster.
Click to expand...

I agree. I usually make this thread around training camp to let the dust settle ;)
 
Lucky said:
My thought is we need to see what happens in the draft and other moves around the draft to actually make a guess at the 53 man roster. But I will say the WR room will include a return man. And I cannot see another season of Davis Mills on this roster.
Click to expand...

So, I'm not trying to predict the 53 man roster, or even look for what I want to happen... I'm thinking of it more like a partially completed jigsaw puzzle, and I am trying to figure out what it will look like when the puzzle is completed... In other words, regardless of my opinion of Tim Settle or CJ Henderson, Nick (with many options available to him) proactively negotiated a deal to get them on this team. I think that means something. They have actively worked to get the puzzle to its current state- so, what's next? I really thought we were going to go after a WR in round two (I want us to), but, when I look at the WR group now, I think it has become unlikely.
 
Lucky said:
My thought is we need to see what happens in the draft and other moves around the draft to actually make a guess at the 53 man roster. But I will say the WR room will include a return man. And I cannot see another season of Davis Mills on this roster.
Click to expand...

Until the actions of the Texans say differently, Davis Mills is not only on the Texans but QB2. and no, I don't feel good about that.
 
AcresHomesTexan said:
Until the actions of the Texans say differently, Davis Mills is not only on the Texans but QB2. and no, I don't feel good about that.
Click to expand...

Mills is a (somewhat) capable backup that knows the system. Unless something weird happens, and they can get 6th round pick or something for him in a trade, we'll keep him. But I don't see him getting past his rookie contract with the Texans.
 
Thorn said:
Mills is a (somewhat) capable backup that knows the system. Unless something weird happens, and they can get 6th round pick or something for him in a trade, we'll keep him. But I don't see him getting past his rookie contract with the Texans.
Click to expand...
I can see him in a Patriots uni.
 
Thorn said:
Mills is a (somewhat) capable backup that knows the system. Unless something weird happens, and they can get 6th round pick or something for him in a trade, we'll keep him. But I don't see him getting past his rookie contract with the Texans.
Click to expand...

There are 15-20 Davis Mills types as number 2 QBs. In mind my there might 5 actual back-up QBs better than that range and few others playing temporary starter. The rest are lots same dog, different flea dudes who have some NFL talent, but not guys you want as multi week starters.
 
AcresHomesTexan said:
There are 15-20 Davis Mills types as number 2 QBs. In mind my there might 5 actual back-up QBs better than that range and few others playing temporary starter. The rest are lots same dog, different flea dudes who have some NFL talent, but not guys you want as multi week starters.
Click to expand...

However, I have seen no indication from the Texans that they plan to make a change at backup QB. I believe Keenum and Mills were actually given a vote of confidence before free agency began.

I would love for one of the draft nerds (like SteelbTexan) to post one of their mock drafts and fit those prospects into the projected roster so we can discuss which of the players under contract are likely to be cut (assuming health in the preseason).
 
dalemurphy said:
However, I have seen no indication from the Texans that they plan to make a change at backup QB. I believe Keenum and Mills were actually given a vote of confidence before free agency began.

I would love for one of the draft nerds (like SteelbTexan) to post one of their mock drafts and fit those prospects into the projected roster so we can discuss which of the players under contract are likely to be cut (assuming health in the preseason).
Click to expand...
Playing golf today

Will try to do this over the weekend.
 
I am sort of okay with our depth but I'm more concerned about our glaring holes at cornerback opposite Stingley and right tackle.
 
badboy said:
I am sort of okay with our depth but I'm more concerned about our glaring holes at cornerback opposite Stingley and right tackle.
Click to expand...
They probably take a CB. They won't like to rely on a rookie as he may not have as good a season as the best between Okudah and Henderson. They may be banking that Okudah or Henderson can at least equal Nelson.
 
Texansphan said:
They probably take a CB. They won't like to rely on a rookie as he may not have as good a season as the best between Okudah and Henderson. They may be banking that Okudah or Henderson can at least equal Nelson.
Click to expand...
Until Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell rocketed out of reach and KoolAid injured, that was the spot I thought we would strike.
 
Texansphan said:
They probably take a CB. They won't like to rely on a rookie as he may not have as good a season as the best between Okudah and Henderson. They may be banking that Okudah or Henderson can at least equal Nelson.
Click to expand...
I think Caserio/Ryans are banking on they will be better than Nelson. If Ryans wanted Nelson on his team then Nelson would be a Texan. The fact that Nelson is still a FA should speak volumes.
 
Texans have put themselves in a position to actually take BPA. So we should focus on that and see if we can come to some kind of consensus. Even if it's WR after bringing in Diggs.

GONE
T'Vondre Sweat
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Kingsley Suanmataia
Jordan Morgan
Troy Franklin

Having said that, I would take any of those if they fell to #42.

PRESENT
Tyler Nubin
Edgerrin Cooper
Kamari Lassiter
Roman Wilson
Xavier Worthy
Cooper Beebe
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Malachi Corley
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Patrick Paul
Bralen Trice
T.J. Tampa
Kiran Amegadjie
Mike Sainristil
Chris Braswell
Kamren Kinchens
Ruke Orhorhoro
Marshawn Kneeland
 
Can anyone else confirm Sweat was pulled over for DUI earlier today? If so, does that take him off Texans board?
 
beerlover said:
Texans have put themselves in a position to actually take BPA. So we should focus on that and see if we can come to some kind of consensus. Even if it's WR after bringing in Diggs.

GONE
T'Vondre Sweat
Ladd McConkey
Adonai Mitchell
Kingsley Suanmataia
Jordan Morgan
Troy Franklin

Having said that, I would take any of those if they fell to #42.

PRESENT
Tyler Nubin
Edgerrin Cooper
Kamari Lassiter
Roman Wilson
Xavier Worthy
Cooper Beebe
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Malachi Corley
Ja'Tavion Sanders
Patrick Paul
Bralen Trice
T.J. Tampa
Kiran Amegadjie
Mike Sainristil
Chris Braswell
Kamren Kinchens
Ruke Orhorhoro
Marshawn Kneeland
Click to expand...

I mentioned Malachi Corley at one point here earlier in the offseason. I have him as a Diontae Johnson type receiver. He was very good for WKU.
 
steelbtexan said:
It shouldn't.
Click to expand...
Ok then,
My Draft Picks
42.
NFL-team-logo

Cooper DeJean S Iowa
59.
NFL-team-logo

T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
86.
NFL-team-logo

Jalen McMillan WR Washington
123.
NFL-team-logo

Cade Stover TE Ohio State
127.
NFL-team-logo

Jaylen Wright RB Tennessee
 
I like your picks BL but I don't think we have two choices in the second because I'm thinking
Slick-Nick trades up into the first round because he's a player in the Draft these days and is
wheeling & dealing !
 
IDEXAN said:
I dunno if drunk-driving would be a big deal to the McNairs anymore judging on a couple of guys
they've agreed to let Nick add to the roster lately: they want to win now !
Click to expand...

Maybe it helps slide him in at 59.
 
IDEXAN said:
I like your picks BL but I don't think we have two choices in the second because I'm thinking
Slick-Nick trades up into the first round because he's a player in the Draft these days and is
wheeling & dealing !
Click to expand...
Tell us, who do you feel is that player & why?
 
beerlover said:
Tell us, who do you feel is that player & why?
Click to expand...
Well we know from last years Draft that Casserio will act very aggressively and pull out all of
the stops to get a defensive prospect who Demeco covets, so I would't be too surprised to see our GM bundle the 42 pick with our 3rd rounder to move up into the 1st to secure a top CB prospect.
 
justmy2cents said:
You're basically satisfied with our OLine ?
Click to expand...
I think a realistic description is cautiously optimistic. 3/5 of our OL will be replaced from last year and it's not unreasonable to believe upgraded. The general rule of thumb is that every year's draft has one OLman taken. If one is taken this year it will likely not be with the expectation of finding a starter. So, a 3rd day prospect who could end up on the PS.

What could change this is if the coaches are told that Howard may not return to start the season. They're not talking, but the draft may send a clear signal.
 
Number19 said:
I think a realistic description is cautiously optimistic. 3/5 of our OL will be replaced from last year and it's not unreasonable to believe upgraded. The general rule of thumb is that every year's draft has one OLman taken. If one is taken this year it will likely not be with the expectation of finding a starter. So, a 3rd day prospect who could end up on the PS.

What could change this is if the coaches are told that Howard may not return to start the season. They're not talking, but the draft may send a clear signal.
Click to expand...


Isn't it funny .... it's about this time every year, that I'm wishing the Combine was going on. There are somewhere between 300 and 400, but I'd really be watching 50 - 75 .... really close !!
 
Number19 said:
I think a realistic description is cautiously optimistic. 3/5 of our OL will be replaced from last year and it's not unreasonable to believe upgraded. The general rule of thumb is that every year's draft has one OLman taken. If one is taken this year it will likely not be with the expectation of finding a starter. So, a 3rd day prospect who could end up on the PS.

What could change this is if the coaches are told that Howard may not return to start the season. They're not talking, but the draft may send a clear signal.
Click to expand...
Couldn’t have said it better. Always have favorite nasty lineman. This year it’s OG/C Tanor Bortolini, Wisconsin 6-4 303 excellent technician, runs well, 4.94 1.79 10 yard split, 7.16 3 cone best in class, quick feet, can reset his plant maintains position, really fun to watch. Earlier was able to mock him in 5th then 4th.

Played in 12 games, all starts at center ... earned third letter … posted an 80.3 pass blocking grade via PFF, the highest for any Badger and the seventh-highest in the Big Ten … allowed only one sack over 477 pressure opportunities.
 
This particular draft has the highest number of legit offensive linemen I've ever seen and we could use a goodly number of them .... about 5 - I'd say !
 
justmy2cents said:
This particular draft has the highest number of legit offensive linemen I've ever seen and we could use a goodly number of them .... about 5 - I'd say !
Click to expand...
What do you think of Travis Glover - seems to be passionate about his game and has some value.
 
My issue with Sweat isn't just the DUI (though that's terrible) it's the timing. 3 weeks before the draft (ie. the biggest moment of his young life) and he makes such a dumb-ass mistake. Between the NIL (for cash) and Uber/Lyft (for an easy ride,) driving drunk is even more of a mistake. When teams look at Sweat most of them want him to lose weight and get into much better shape which will require some mental discipline...that's now in question.

If he slid to our 2nd 2nd rounder, I would (begrudgingly) take the chance assuming he interviewed well.
 
steelbtexan said:
I would be very happy with 2-42 P. Wilson and 2-59 one of Nubin, Bullard or Kinchens.
Click to expand...
There was a breakdown on how often Ryan's played three linebackers or two and that might impact his desire to draft a linebacker on day two. Thoughts from anyone?
 
Number19 said:
I think a realistic description is cautiously optimistic. 3/5 of our OL will be replaced from last year and it's not unreasonable to believe upgraded. The general rule of thumb is that every year's draft has one OLman taken. If one is taken this year it will likely not be with the expectation of finding a starter. So, a 3rd day prospect who could end up on the PS.

What could change this is if the coaches are told that Howard may not return to start the season. They're not talking, but the draft may send a clear signal.
Click to expand...
if the coaches are told now at this late date that Howard will not be the starting right tackle in 2024 all the medical professional should be fired!
 
cland said:
My issue with Sweat isn't just the DUI (though that's terrible) it's the timing. 3 weeks before the draft (ie. the biggest moment of his young life) and he makes such a dumb-ass mistake. Between the NIL (for cash) and Uber/Lyft (for an easy ride,) driving drunk is even more of a mistake. When teams look at Sweat most of them want him to lose weight and get into much better shape which will require some mental discipline...that's now in question.

If he slid to our 2nd 2nd rounder, I would (begrudgingly) take the chance assuming he interviewed well.
Click to expand...
No one, regardless of age gets into a vehicle under the influence and says I am going to get a DWI today. Funniest thing a former next door neighbor twice was at a nearby bar and decided to walk to our Apartments rather than risk getting a DWI, leaving his car in the parking lot instead. Both times he was stopped by the Seabrook Police and given a public intoxication and an overnight in the Seabrook jail.

Not funny, couple years later, Donnie was found dead on parking lot ground next to dumpster of couple sport bar/restaurants.
 
steelbtexan said:
What did the breakdown say?
Click to expand...
I think I saved it somewhere. Let me see if I can find it but if I remember correctly it suggested that we were in Two linebacker formation a huge percent of the time therefore the three starters we have would be sufficient.
 
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