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Possible 2020 NFL Draft Order w/ COMP Picks

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
I know I had this in my Mock post but felt it was in the wrong place. Wanted to move the most up to date possibilities to this section so those wanting to put Mock Drafts together might have a better feel for where the Texans actual picks may occur.

RD1
01-32 - 001-032 / P25-025: Miami < Houston (+Tunsil / Stills)

RD2
01-32 - 033-064 / P25-057: TEXANS

RD3

01-32 - 065-096 / P25-089: Cleveland < Houston (+Johnson)
01-32 - 065-096 / P26-090: Las Vegas < Houston (+Conley) < Seattle (+Clowney)

RD3 COMP
01-10 - 097-106 / P03-099: TEXANS (-Mathieu)

RD4
01-32 - 107-138 / P05-111: TEXANS (+Tunsil / Stills ) < Miami
01-32 - 107-138 / P25-131: TEXANS

RD4 COMP

01-06 - 139-144 / P06-144: TEXANS (-Covington)

RD5 (-1 Forfeited Pick Cardinals)
01-31 - 145-175 / P25-169: TEXANS

RD5 COMP

01-03 - 176- 178 / P00-000: No Picks

RD6
01-32 - 179-211 / P25-203: New England < Houston (+Crossen)

RD6 COMP
01-03 - 212-214 / P00-000: No Picks

RD7
01-32 - 215-246 / P25-239: TEXANS

RD7 COMP

01-10 - 247-256 / P03-000: No Picks

Texans should have 7 picks with 2 of them being from the COMP Pick rounds.
 
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badboy

Hall of Fame
I have us with 4 total thirds losing two.
3a Seattle's goes to Cleveland for Duke Johnson.

3b ours to Raiders for Conley.

3c comp for Kjackson: 71 tackles, 10 pass defended, 2 INT

3d comp Tyran Mathieu : 79 Ts, 4 INTs, 75.3 PFF

TE Darren Fells 34/47 341 yds 7 TDs cancelled by
TE Ryan Griffin 34/39 320 yds. 5 TD.
We also lost nose tackle Christian Covington who's PFF was 65.7 for 2019 and should be worth a fourth-round comp if not a third.
 

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
I have us with 4 total thirds losing two.
3a Seattle's goes to Cleveland for Duke Johnson.

3b ours to Raiders for Conley.

3c comp for KJackson: 71 tackles, 10 pass defended, 2 INT

3d comp Tyran Mathieu : 79 Ts, 4 INTs, 75.3 PFF

TE Darren Fells 34/47 341 yds 7 TDs cancelled by
TE Ryan Griffin 34/39 320 yds. 5 TD.
We also lost nose tackle Christian Covington who's PFF was 65.7 for 2019 and should be worth a fourth-round comp if not a third.
I'd really like to see Covington's production elevate his COMP status to RD4.....that would be very good for the Texans.

Not certain as to how the Roby deal will affect the RD3 COMP's. He's had a decent season and suited up for 10 games plus the playoffs. I think he'll have just enough production in the books to negate the loss of Jackson or Mathieu. I'd really be down with the Texans securing 2 RD3 COMP Picks but I think it'll wind up being 1 pick.

The Gipson, Boddy-Calhoun, Fells or McCarron signings will have zero affect. Lamm only had 4 games and 85 snaps played with the Browns in 2019. I think that will negate and compensation for him.....so we'll toss another COMP Pick.

Count me in on (2- RD3 / 1- RD4 / 1- RD7) 4 solid COMP picks but I'll settle for; 1- RD3 (Mathieu) / 1- RD4 (Covington). That'll probably be it for the Texans in the 2020 NFL Draft.

I'll make a final correction to my initial chart. Covington will be moved into a RD4 COMP.
 
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badboy

Hall of Fame
Covington will return a 7th comp pick.
Well if he does then that should cancel out Roby because their PFF are almost exactly the same. No one knows exactly how the formula works as I understand however the play of the incoming and the outgoing free agents for their individual teams has to be a focus. I have no clue about Covington cuz I do not follow the Cowboys but Roby has not been anywhere near what I hoped he would be.
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
Well if he does then that should cancel out Roby because their PFF are almost exactly the same. No one knows exactly how the formula works as I understand however the play of the incoming and the outgoing free agents for their individual teams has to be a focus. I have no clue about Covington cuz I do not follow the Cowboys but Roby has not been anywhere near what I hoped he would be.
That's a lot to address, let's just stick to the comp picks. Yes, no one has the exact formula used. But those that do attempt to derive the formula state that the overwhelmingly factor is the averge annual value (AAV) of the contract. Roby signed for 1 year at $10 million. Covington signed for one year for $2.5 million. Roby played 60% of defensive snaps, despite playing only 10 games. Covington played in all 16 games, and played in 45% of the snaps. No one has ever intimated that PFF stats are used in determining compensation picks. Pro Bowl, All Pro awards may be considered. Neither Roby or Covington made these post season teams.
 

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
That's a lot to address, let's just stick to the comp picks. Yes, no one has the exact formula used. But those that do attempt to derive the formula state that the overwhelmingly factor is the averge annual value (AAV) of the contract. Roby signed for 1 year at $10 million. Covington signed for one year for $2.5 million. Roby played 60% of defensive snaps, despite playing only 10 games. Covington played in all 16 games, and played in 45% of the snaps. No one has ever intimated that PFF stats are used in determining compensation picks. Pro Bowl, All Pro awards may be considered. Neither Roby or Covington made these post season teams.
Roby should or might cancel out Mathieu or Jackson.....but if Roby is being used to cancel out Covington then the Texans could wind up getting both RD3 COMP picks for Mathieu and Jackson. I'd be for that happening. Roby's 10 games may not be enough to cancel out the seasons had by both Mathieu and Jackson.

If both Mathieu and Jackson were given COMP status for the Texans, they could get the 3rd and 4th COMP picks (overaall 99 & 100) in RD3.
 

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
Below is a link to an opinion on comp picks from OTC:

Projecting The 2020 Compensatory Picks

View attachment 5290
I believe that's Tankathon's list and there may be some fault with it. Lamm only played 4 games this season and probably won't qualify as a COMP Pick. Covington's 2019 season and production could warrant an earlier COMP Pick. We're still not certain how Roby's season and injuries could affect the projected RD3 COMP Picks for Mathieu and Jackson. Mathieu and Jackson both had solid seasons.
 

KoolAid Sipper

Waterboy
I believe that's Tankathon's list and there may be some fault with it. Lamm only played 4 games this season and probably won't qualify as a COMP Pick. Covington's 2019 season and production could warrant an earlier COMP Pick. We're still not certain how Roby's season and injuries could affect the projected RD3 COMP Picks for Mathieu and Jackson. Mathieu and Jackson both had solid seasons.
I found it interesting that there is a 32 total pick limit, I never thought of what that effect would be on the picks. Regarding the DBs, I think Roby affects KJack but Mathieu should be a clear cut 3rd.
 

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
Mathieu made the AP all-pro team, first team ! That's worth something in the comp calulations right ?
I dunno what's the highest Draft pick they can award in the comps ?
RD3-33(01)-097 would be the first pick awarded in the COMP Pick system. At the moment, the Texans are being projected by OTC at the RD3-34(02)-098 spot. This one would be for Mathieu.
 

Lucky

Moderator
Staff member
Mathieu made the AP all-pro team, first team ! That's worth something in the comp calulations right ?
I dunno what's the highest Draft pick they can award in the comps ?
It means something, but not as much as average yearly amount of the contract, or playing time.
Would imagine that was finalized last night. As for the COMP Picks.....that'll take a little while longer, maybe around the end of this month.
They were announced on 2-22 last year.
Initial thoughts by analyst have Roby cancelling KJax. This will definitely be the one COMP scenario to keep an eye on. I'd be stoked if Roby's playing time allowed the Texans to keep the extra RD3 COMP pick.
Jackson's compensation would only be a 4th round pick. So would Roby for the Broncos. That's why they cancel each other out. The playing time (Jackson 842 snaps to Roby's 655) is not significant enough to make a difference.
 

OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
Ok.....the final draft order has been established. I included the latest update in regards to projected COMP Picks. One caveat, RD5 will have 1 less pick since the Cardinals forfeited their pick.

**Projected COMP Picks per round: RD3- 7 / RD4- 11 / RD5- 2 / RD6- 3 / RD7- 7**

TEXANS PROJECTED PICKS

RD2- 25-057

CP3- 05-101 (Mathieu)

RD4- 05-109 (MIAMI)
RD4- 25-129

RD5- 26-174

RD7- 26-244
CP7- 02-252 (Lamm)
CP7- 03-253 (Covington)

Pretty easy to sum this up for the Texans......there is no ducking margin for error!!!! These picks have to count....in a way that doesn't allow an UDFA to come in and beat a late round pick.
 
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OptimisticTexan

Hall of Fame
The Draft will just be the latest thing OB will be 100% accountable for and should be held accountable by Cal if he fails miserably. Likewise, he should be praised if he somehow pulls a rabbit out of his arse.

If OB screws this GM thing up in 2020.....damn it could be a while before this team could turn it around. UFA for this team could bail in order to play for a better organization if it doesn't pan out. This season might've been the first time that Watson has shown some slight outward disagreements with OB's play-calling. If this team doesn't progress offensively in OB YR7......Watson may want to test the market before inking another contract with the Texans and OB. It would represent another wasted QB by this organization.
 


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