Playoff Odds: Week 13

[brakos82]

Teams are sorted by the current odds of them making the playoffs, not by the typical "If the season ended today" mode. These ratings are determined by current record, all applicable tie-breakers, and strength of remaining schedule. Playoff clinching/elimination scenarios where a tie is required are not included.

If a HFA/1st round category is not listed for a team, it has a less than 1% chance of happening. If a division category is not listed, that team has been eliminated from the division title race.

Teams in Green control their destiny for the #1 seed.
Teams in Blue control their destiny for the division title.
Teams in Black control their playoff destiny.
Unbolded teams need some help to make the playoffs.

AFC Playoff Picture:

Broncos (10-2)- HFA 52%, 1st-round bye 77%, Division 99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win and KC loss.
- Can clinch playoff berth with win and either PIT or NYJ loss.
Patriots (10-2) - HFA 27%, 1st-round bye 74%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win and NYJ loss.
- Can clinch playoff berth with win or NYJ loss or PIT loss.
Bengals (10-2)- HFA 22%, 1st-round bye 50%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win.
- Can clinch playoff berth with either KC or NYJ loss.
Chiefs (7-5)- Division 2%, Playoffs 94%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 97%, a loss drops them to 82%.
Colts (6-6)- Division 65%, Playoffs 66%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 75%, a loss drops them to 57%.
Jets (7-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 39%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 42%, a loss drops them to 17%.
Texans (6-6)- Division 34%, Playoffs 36%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 48%, a loss drops them to 29%.
Steelers (7-5)- Division 1%, Playoffs 33%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 62%, a loss drops them to 24%.
Bills (6-6)- Playoffs 30%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 39%, a loss drops them to 18%.

All other teams with 1% or less playoff chance.

Browns have been eliminated.
Dolphins can be eliminated with loss and KC and NYJ wins.
Jaguars can be eliminated with loss and either: NYJ, BUF, PIT or HOU wins.
Ravens can be eliminated with loss and either: KC, OAK, or PIT wins.
Chargers can be eliminated with: loss, or OAK win, or PIT win.
Titans can be eliminated with: loss, or IND win, or HOU win.


NFC Playoff Picture:

Panthers (12-0) - HFA 97%, 1st-round bye >99%, Division 100%
- Have clinched division and #3 seed.
- Can clinch #2 seed with win, or MIN and GB losses.
Cardinals (10-2)- HFA 3%, 1st-round bye 81%, Division 97%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win and SEA loss.
- Can clinch playoffs with win, or TB and ATL losses, or TB and DAL losses.
Packers (8-4)- 1st-round bye 11%, Division 60%, Playoffs 95%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 98%, a loss drops them to 86%.
Vikings (8-4)- 1st-round bye 7%, Division 39%, Playoffs 89%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 98%, a loss drops them to 86%.
Seahawks (7-5)- Division 3%, Playoffs 86%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 93%, a loss drops them to 72%.
Eagles (5-7)- Division 43%, Playoffs 43%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 56%, a loss drops them to 33%.
Redskins (5-7)- Division 34%, Playoffs 34%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 43%, a loss drops them to 28%.
Buccs (6-6)- Playoffs 20%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 27%, a loss drops them to 5%.
Giants (5-7)- Division 14%, Playoffs 14%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 25%, a loss drops them to 7%.
Cowboys (4-8)- Division 9%, Playoffs 9%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 20%, a loss drops them to 6%.
Bears (5-7)- Division <1%, Playoffs 4%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 6%, a loss drops them to 1%.
Falcons (6-6)- Playoffs 3%
- Win next week improves playoff odds to 12%, a loss drops them to 1%.

All other teams with 1% or less playoff chance.

Rams can be eliminated with loss and SEA win.
Lions can be eliminated with loss and SEA win.
Saints can be eliminated with loss.
49ers can be eliminated with loss, or MIN and SEA wins.

 

[brakos82]

Breaking down the Odds going into Week 14

We will look at the teams still realistically (>1%) in contention for a playoff spot and break down the best-case and worst-case scenarios for next week. A maximum of 3 games from week 14 are considered.

AFC Playoff Picture:

Broncos (10-2)- HFA 52%, 1st-round bye 77%, Division 99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win and KC loss.
- Can clinch playoff berth with win and either PIT or NYJ loss.
- Best case scenario: Broncos win, Patriots lose. HFA improves to 63%, and first round bye jumps to 89%.
- Worst case scenario: Broncos lose, Patriots win. Control of #1 is lost, dropping those odds to 22%. First round bye drops to 55%, and lets K.C. back into the division race.
- Winning out (14-2) guarantees the #1 seed.
- 13-3 finish puts #1 seed odds at 53%, and 91% for a top-2 seed.
- 12-4 guarantee a division title, but first-round bye odds are down to 44%.
- 11-5 drops division title odds to 55%.
- Losing out (10-6) would still give Denver a 75% chance at making the playoffs.

Patriots (10-2) - HFA 27%, 1st-round bye 74%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win and NYJ loss.
- Can clinch playoff berth with win or NYJ loss or PIT loss.
- Best case scenario: Patriots win, Broncos and Bengals lose. Control of HFA is gained (72%), and first-round bye odds jumps to 97%.
- Worst case scenario: Patriots lose, Broncos and Bengals win. Control of the #2 seed is lost (41%). Even in this scenario, the Patriots clinch a playoff berth.
- Winning out (14-2) gives New England a 64% chance at the #1 seed and a guaranteed #2.
- 13-3 drops HFA to 13%.
- 12-4 takes them out of HFA conention with a 25% chance at #2.
- 11-5 clinches a playoff berth and almost guarantees a #3 seed (98%).
- Losing out (10-6) opens the door for the Jets to take the division (64% for N.E. to win).

Bengals (10-2)- HFA 22%, 1st-round bye 50%, Division >99%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win.
- Can clinch playoff berth with either KC or NYJ loss.
- Best case scenario: Bengals win, Patriots and Broncos lose. Control of HFA is gained (46%), first-round bye odds jump to 76%.
- Worst case scenario: Bengals lose, Patriots and Broncos win. HFA drops to 3%, and first-round bye drops to 31%. Control of #2 seed kept.
- Winning out (14-2) gives Cincinnati a 70% chance at the #1 seed, with a guaranteed #2.
- 13-3 puts HFA odds at 38% and top-2 odds at 84%.
- 12-4 clinches division, but drops HFA to 5%, and top-2 to 36%.
- 11-5 clinches playoffs, with an 88% chance at earning the #3 seed, and 95% chance at a division title.
- Losing out (10-6) still gives a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

Chiefs (7-5)- Division 2%, Playoffs 94%
- Best case scenario: Chiefs win, Steelers lose. Playoff odds jump to 98%.
- Worst case scenario: Chiefs lose, Steelers win. Wild-card control is lost, with odds dropping to 75%.
- Winning out (11-5) clinches K.C. a playoff spot, with a 4% chance at the division title.
- 10-6 still gives them a 99% chance at the playoffs.
- 9-7 drops that percentage to 82%.
- 8-8 keeps them alive at 23%.
- Losing out (7-9) will almost certainly knock them out of the playoffs (>1%).

Colts (6-6)- Division 65%, Playoffs 66%
- Best case scenario: Colts win, Texans lose. Division (and playoff) odds jump to 78%.
- Worst case scenario: Colts lose, Texans win. Division (and playoff) odds drop to 46%, though control of the division continues.
- Winning out (10-6) clinches the division, with a 99% chance at the #4 seed.
- 9-7 lets Houston into the conversation with only 89% division/playoff odds.
- 8-8 makes the AFC South a coin flip (52/48 in favor of IND).
- 7-9 takes their odds down to 10%.
- 6-10 will eliminate Indianapolis.

Jets (7-5)- Division <1%, Playoffs 39%
- Best case scenario: Jets win, Bills and Steelers lose. Playoff odds jump to 53%, and control of the wild-card is gained.
- Worst case scenario: Jets lose, Bills and Steelers win. Playoff odds drop to 9%.
- Winning out (11-5) gives New York a 97% chance at the playoffs.
- 10-6 puts odds at 76%.
- 9-7 puts odds at 31%.
- 8-8 keeps them barely alive at 2%.

Texans (6-6)- Division 34%, Playoffs 36%
- Best case scenario: Texans win, Colts lose. Playoff odds jump to 57% (division to 54%).
- Worst case scenario: Texans lose, Colts win. All playoff control is lost, and drops playoff odds to 23%.
- Winning out (10-6) clinches the division, with a 99% chance at the #4 seed.
- 9-7 drops playoff odds to 72%, and divisional odds to 64%.
- 8-8 drops division title (and playoff) odds to 21%.
- 7-9 will most certainly take Houston out of the playoffs.

Steelers (7-5)- Division 1%, Playoffs 33%
- Best case scenario: Steelers win, Bills and Jets lose. Playoff odds jump to 77%.
- Worst case scenario: Steelers lose, Bills and Jets win. Control of the playoffs is lost, and drops to 17%.
- Winning out (11-5) clinches the playoffs, with an 8% chance at winning the division.
- 10-6 still gives playoff odds of 86%.
- 9-7 drops playoff odds to 18%.
- 8-8 will most certainly take Pittsburgh out of the playoffs.

Bills (6-6)- Playoffs 30%
- Best case scenario: Bills win, Steelers and Jets lose. Playoff control is not gained, but odds do improve to 54%.
- Worst case scenario: Bills lose, Steelers and Jets win. Playoff odds drop to 9%.
- Winning out (10-6) gives Buffalo an 84% chance at the playoffs.
- 9-7 is a toss-up (47%).
- 8-8 drops them down to 5%.
- 7-9 will most certainly eliminate Buffalo.

NFC Playoff Picture:

Panthers (12-0) - HFA 97%, 1st-round bye >99%, Division 100%
- Have clinched division and #3 seed.
- Can clinch #2 seed with win, or MIN and GB losses.
- Best case scenario: Panthers win. HFA rises to 98% and a first-round bye is clinched.
- Worst case scenario: Panthers lose. HFA drops to 88% (85% with an Arizona win).
- Winning out (16-0) obviously gives Carolina the #1 seed, as does 15-1.
- 14-2 gives a 74% chance at the #1 seed, and a guaranteed #2.
- 13-3 still guarantees a #2, but #1 odds drop to 38%.
- Losing out (12-4) drops HFA to 9%, and first-round bye to 88%.

Cardinals (10-2)- HFA 3%, 1st-round bye 81%, Division 97%, Playoffs >99%
- Can clinch division with win and SEA loss.
- Can clinch playoffs with win, or TB and ATL losses, or TB and DAL losses.
- Best case scenario: Cardinals win, Panthers and Packers lose. HFA jumps to 15% and first-round bye to 97%.
- Worst case scenario: Cardinals lose, Panthers and Packers win. First-round bye drops to 61%, and divisional odds to 92%.
- Winning out (14-2) guarantees the #2 seed with a 9% chance at #1.
- 13-3 also guarantees #2, but with only 1% chance at #1.
- 12-4 clinches the division, with a 70% chance of the #2 seed (30% at #3).
- 11-5 clinches the playoffs, with an 85% at a division title.
- Losing out (10-6) puts playoff odds at 98%, but division odds drop to 25%.

Packers (8-4)- 1st-round bye 11%, Division 60%, Playoffs 95%
- Best case scenario: Packers win, Cardinals lose. (Yes, this means Minnesota winning!) While the overall division odds drop in this scenario (54%), first-round bye odds increase to 20%.
- Worst case scenario: Packers lose, Cardinals win. Division odds are still at 54%, but first-round bye odds drop to 2%, and playoff odds are down to 86%.
- Winning out (12-4) clinches the division, with a 64% chance at the #2 seed.
- 11-5 clinches the playoffs, with an 83% chance at the division title.
- 10-6 drops division odds to 46%, and playoff odds to 99%.
- 9-7 puts division odds at 8%, and playoff odds at 84%.
- Losing out (8-8) puts playoff odds at 26%.

Vikings (8-4)- 1st-round bye 7%, Division 39%, Playoffs 89%
- Best case scenario: Vikings win, Packers and Seahawks lose. First-round bye odds improve to 22%, division odds improve to 68%, and playoff odds rise to 99%.
- Worst case scenario: Vikings lose, Packers and Seahawks win. Division odds drop slightly to 34% (with control), and playoff odds at 84%.
- Winning out (12-4) clinches the division, with a 65% chance at the #2 seed.
- 11-5 clinches the playoffs, but with an 85% chance at the division.
- 10-6 drops division odds to 43%, and playoff odds to 99%.
- 9-7 takes division odds down to 9%, and playoff odds to 73%.
- Losing out (8-8) only gives a 10% chance at the playoffs.

Seahawks (7-5)- Division 3%, Playoffs 86%
- Best case scenario: Seahawks win, Bucs lose. Playoff odds jump to 97%.
- Worst case scenario: Seahawks lose, Bucs win. Playoffs odds drop to 67%, and control of the wild-card is lost.
- Winning out (11-5) clinches the playoffs, with a 13% chance at a division title.
- 10-6 drops divison odds to 2%, and playoff odds to 99%.
- 9-7 gives Seattle an 83% chance at the playoffs.
- 8-8 drops those chances to 37%.
- Losing out (7-9) is still an option, but highly unlikely (1%).

Eagles (5-7)- Division 43%, Playoffs 43%
- Best case scenario: Eagles win, Redskins and Giants lose. Division odds jump to 61%.
- Worst case scenario: Eagles lose, Redskins and Giants win. Division odds drop to 28%, but they would still have control.
- Winning out (9-7) clinches the division with an almost guaranteed #4 seed.
- 8-8 drops division odds to 87%.
- 7-9 takes them to 38%.
- 6-10 is still a possibility at 3%.

Redskins (5-7)- Division 34%, Playoffs 34%
- Best case scenario: Redskins win, Eagles and Giants lose. Division odds jump to 53%.
- Worst case scenario: Redskins lose, Eagles and Giants win. Control of division (and playoffs) is lost, odds drop to 22%.
- Winning out (9-7) clinches the division with an almost guaranteed #4 seed.
- 8-8 drops odds to 87%.
- 7-9 drops odds to 39%.
- 6-10 is still a possibility at 3%. (After re-typing this, I see I should have just copy-pasted from the Eagles section!)

Bucs (6-6)- Playoffs 20%
- Best case scenario: Bucs win, Packers and Seahawks lose. Playoff odds jump to 40%, and control is gained.
- Worst case scenario: Bucs lose, Packers and Seahawks win. Playoff odds drop to 3%.
- Winning out (10-6) puts the playoff odds at 98%.
- 9-7 drops those odds to 62%.
- 8-8 takes Tampa down to 10%.
- 7-9 will nearly certainly take them out.

Giants (5-7)- Division 14%, Playoffs 14%
- Best case scenario: Giants win, Eagles lose. Division/Playoff odds rise to 29%. Control cannot be gained in this scenario.
- Worst case scenario: Giants lose, Eagles win. Playoff odds drop to 3%.
- Winning out (9-7) gives New York a 95% chance at the division, with an additional chance at a wild-card spot (3%).
- 8-8 drops the division odds to 63%, and playoff odds to 66%.
- 7-9 takes the playoff odds down to 13%.
- 6-10 is still a mathematical possibility, but not statistically (<1%).

Cowboys (4-8)- Division 9%, Playoffs 9%
- Best case scenario: Cowboys win, Eagles and Giants lose. Division/Playoff odds triple to 27%.
- Worst case scenario: Cowboys lose, Eagles and Giants win. Those odds drop to 3%.
- Winning out (8-8) gives Dallas a 77% chance at the division, and 78% chance at the playoffs.
- 7-9 drops them down to 35%.
- 6-10 still holds a 4% chance at a division title.

Bears (5-7)- Division <1%, Playoffs 4%
- Best case scenario: Bears win. Playoff odds improve to 6%.
- Worst case scenario: Bears lose. They drop to 1%.
- Winning out (9-7) gives Chicago a toss-up (51/49 in favor) of making the playoffs.
- 8-8 takes that chance down to 3%.
- 7-9 will most certainly take the Bears out of the picture.

Falcons (6-6)- Playoffs 3%
- Best case scenario: Falcons win, Packers and Seahawks lose. Odds rise to 19%.
- Worst case scenario: Falcons lose, Packers and Seahawks win. Atlanta will be on the brink of elimination (<1%).
- Winning out (10-6) gives Atlanta an 80% chance at the playoffs.
- 9-7 takes those odds down to 18%.
- 8-8 will all but knock them out (1%).