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[Pick 67] Davis Mills QB Stanford

76Texan

Hall of Fame
My two cents is that Mills' critics have too narrow of vision and are ignoring the other aspects of the offense which would impact a QB's performance; such as subpar protection by the OL, lack of a running game which is on both the OL and the RB's, and lack of talent in the WR's. I would also put some responsibility on the coaching staff and game planning.

With so much going wrong with the Texans offense, it makes it difficult to judge any individule performance, not just QB.

And let's not forget that Mills right off the bat was thrown to the wolves against the leagues better defenses.

I'm just taking it one game at a time and am looking forward to see how well he rebounds against the Pats in Reliant Stadium.
That's why he should have stayed at Stanford for another year.
He still needs to work on a lot of the foundation.
 

76Texan

Hall of Fame
I don't look at that at all, they have gloves to help guys with that these days. I mostly look at throwing motion and pocket prescence. Is he cutting it loose or is he trying to aim or be to careful with it? How does he move in the pocket? ..does he sense the pressure and slides accordingly? Does he hang in there & deliver it when he knows he's about to be popped or is he too quick to bail. When he has guys at his feet does he shorten up?

To me these things are the biggest red flags that you can tell if a guy's gonna make it or not. Its why i was high on Mac Jones...he "graded out" very well in those areas for me.
All of it and more.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
That's why he should have stayed at Stanford for another year.
He still needs to work on a lot of the foundation.
Agreed.

He has a lot to learn. I do give him props for his effort out there. The Texans put this young man in this situation. They should’ve brought in another quality backup and placed him on the practice squad. I know this issue with Watson put them in a disparate bind.
 
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Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
So, I read a lot on this board about Pep Hamilton and how successful he’s been with young quarterbacks. Has Hamilton lost his Midas touch, is Mills just that green or terrible, or are they right on schedule? Personally, I don’t think it’s that last thing but I also wasn’t talking Pep up during the offseason either. So I have to punt that question to those of you who were.
Or maybe he’s really not been all that successful. I listed all the QBs he’s worked with the last 10 years a while back and none, except for 1st rounders, Luck, Herbert, ever amounted to anything.
 

Speedy

Former Yeller Dweller
I's very subjective. Brady has great protection with a WR running a slant and Brady throws a ball behind him or leads him to the ground. Even though the ball was not thrown with accuracy or in stride, some announcers will say Brady protected his WRs by throwing the ball low to prevent him from getting hit by a LB. Another QB is under pressure or throwing on the run and the same announcers will say, "he's inaccurate". If a QB is playing with WRs who are not good route runners or due to a lack of trust hesitates on throws to certain WRs. Is that inaccuracy or a lack of trust and timing between WR and QB? How would you know?

For me. Although completion percentage is not 100% accurate, I start there, try to ignore the dump off and check downs or ignore the "check down Charlie" stats and if your QB is completing over 64% of his passes, he is accurate. I use common sense and my eyes to see how passes are completed 10, 15 and 20+ yards downfield. My point. It is subjective.
Right, but unfortunately we can’t eyeball every throw by every QB, so completion percentage is about the only thing we have to go on, and that’s far from telling the whole story.

I’ve seen Rodgers enough to know he’s about as accurate as I’ve ever seen, but his career completion percentage says he’s 13th all time. And Matt Schaub is 18th all time, Deshaun Watson is #1.

So yeah, very subjective.
 

Lucky

Not like this. Not like this.
Staff member
Right, but unfortunately we can’t eyeball every throw by every QB, so completion percentage is about the only thing we have to go on, and that’s far from telling the whole story.
I like Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt. Takes the basic yards per attempt and credits positive plays (TDs) and subtracts for negative plays (INTs and sacks).

(PASSING YARDS – SACK YARDAGE + (20 × TOUCHDOWNS) – (45 × INTERCEPTIONS)) / (PASS ATTEMPTS + SACKS)

Like all passing stats, it skews to the modern game. Top 10 all time:

1. Patrick Mahomes - 8.52
2. Aaron Rodgers - 7.41
3. Deshaun Watson - 7.26
4. Peyton Manning - 7.17
5. Tom Brady - 7.11
6. Drew Brees - 7.10
7. Dak Prescott - 7.06
7. Russell Wilson - 7.06
9. Tony Romo - 7.03
10. Kirk Cousins - 6.94

What this stat (and football stats in general) lacks is adjusting these numbers versus the league average for a given season. That would normalize the numbers for a given era.

 

banned1976

Truth Teller
My two cents is that Mills' critics have too narrow of vision and are ignoring the other aspects of the offense which would impact a QB's performance; such as subpar protection by the OL, lack of a running game which is on both the OL and the RB's, and lack of talent in the WR's. I would also put some responsibility on the coaching staff and game planning.

With so much going wrong with the Texans offense, it makes it difficult to judge any individule performance, not just QB.

And let's not forget that Mills right off the bat was thrown to the wolves against the leagues better defenses.

I'm just taking it one game at a time and am looking forward to see how well he rebounds against the Pats in Reliant Stadium.
Fair.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
By the end of Sunday's game he will have seen almost everything DC's can throw at him.
….not to mention the numbers 1, 2, 3, & 5 defenses.

OL performing below average since Mills stepped in which could be contributed to him holding the ball longer than Taylor did.
The running game has failed to get on track this season….maybe Kelly could wrap his head around the idea of using the passing game to set up the running game. Could it yield results any less satisfying?
WR’s have build-up speed therefore Kelly cannot allow Mills to constantly be in 3rd and 8+ yards.
Texans still haven’t figured out how to teach their TE’s the art of hit and release…..they’re still stuck in that long rut of either TE’s are blockers or sideline observers.
SWR is a secret that the Texans refuse to let out of the bag.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
OL performing below average since Mills stepped in which could be contributed to him holding the ball longer than Taylor did.
They’ve been below avg in the run game the whole time. They’ve given him time until Buffalo. The Patriots don’t blitz like Buffalo did, so he should be fine. Unless they try to copy what Buffalo did.
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
They’ve been below avg in the run game the whole time. They’ve given him time until Buffalo. The Patriots don’t blitz like Buffalo did, so he should be fine. Unless they try to copy what Buffalo did.
I think every opposing defense will stack the box to kill the running game and dare Mills to carry the offense. The only way the Texans will get past this type of scheme is to attack it with screens, quicks hits, and a draw play or two to try and get opposing defenses loosened up. Kelly has to keep Mills out of 2nd / 3rd and long situations.
 
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vtech9

Veteran
….not to mention the numbers 1, 2, 3, & 5 defenses.

OL performing below average since Mills stepped in which could be contributed to him holding the ball longer than Taylor did.
The running game has failed to get on track this season….maybe Kelly could wrap his head around the idea of using the passing game to set up the running game. Could it yield results any less satisfying?
WR’s have build-up speed therefore Kelly cannot allow Mills to constantly be in 3rd and 8+ yards.
Texans still haven’t figured out how to teach their TE’s the art of hit and release…..they’re still stuck in that long rut of either TE’s are blockers or sideline observers.
SWR is a secret that the Texans refuse to let out of the bag.
I've always been a proponent of using the short passing game to open up the run game. Even with Mills as QB, a more up-tempo offence has been more effective. When he is given the chance to get in the groove, the whole offense looks better. However, it is only a small sampling size, so I could be misreading it.

With Tyrod, I think the Browns were expecting us to come out running, but we opened up with the pass. By doing so, it softened up the Browns Defense a little. When Mills came in, the Browns again tied their ears back, and came with more pressure. When TK started going a little more up-tempo later in the game, Mills started looking decent. It really was the same against the Panthers. Against the Bills, TK turtled, and Mills and the offense suffered for it. Later in the game, when TK started opening up the passing game, it started to look more effective until mistakes killed everything.

If TK opens up the offense, and lets Mills start out with quick passes to set up the run, I think we will have a very good chance of winning against the Pats. If we come out trying to force the run, I think we will see more of the same, and see a very lackluster offense with a lot of 3 and outs.
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Even with Mills as QB, a more up-tempo offence has been more effective.
Several games I watched this weekend the commentators mentioned the OC used spread formations to open the defense making it easier for the young QB to see what the defense is trying to do.

We continue to come out with two tight ends in tight formations trying to run.

The Chargers first play against the Raiders was from an empty set.
 

Jack Burton

Rookie
My two cents is that Mills' critics have too narrow of vision and are ignoring the other aspects of the offense which would impact a QB's performance; such as subpar protection by the OL, lack of a running game which is on both the OL and the RB's, and lack of talent in the WR's. I would also put some responsibility on the coaching staff and game planning.

With so much going wrong with the Texans offense, it makes it difficult to judge any individule performance, not just QB.

And let's not forget that Mills right off the bat was thrown to the wolves against the leagues better defenses.

I'm just taking it one game at a time and am looking forward to see how well he rebounds against the Pats in Reliant Stadium.

The team sucks and anyone hoping for wins no matter who is playing was hoping against all hope anyways and they will have plenty of options in next years draft.
He is a 3rd round pick they are trying to develop.
If he doesn’t work out, who cares, move on and hit on a QB next year with all the picks.
 

vtech9

Veteran
The team sucks and anyone hoping for wins no matter who is playing was hoping against all hope anyways and they will have plenty of options in next years draft.
He is a 3rd round pick they are trying to develop.
If he doesn’t work out, who cares, move on and hit on a QB next year with all the picks.
really, even if Mills turns out to be a wasted pick, I still would rather waiting until 2023 to take a 1st round QB. I think we need to fill all of the other holes on this team, so our future QB, whoever it shall be, has a better chance to be successful. About the only way I would want to take a QB in the 1st round in 2022 is if we are able to trade down and pick up another 1st round pick, and then maybe use one on a QB. Even so, I would still rather go best player available.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
They’ve been below avg in the run game the whole time. They’ve given him time until Buffalo. The Patriots don’t blitz like Buffalo did, so he should be fine. Unless they try to copy what Buffalo did.
Belichick is going to blitz that rookie for sure. He always does. Hopefully Mills can make him pay. But then again he might be handicapped again because the freaking GM just got rid of Miller. A receiver who he was just building chemistry with.
 

Jack Burton

Rookie
really, even if Mills turns out to be a wasted pick, I still would rather waiting until 2023 to take a 1st round QB. I think we need to fill all of the other holes on this team, so our future QB, whoever it shall be, has a better chance to be successful. About the only way I would want to take a QB in the 1st round in 2022 is if we are able to trade down and pick up another 1st round pick, and then maybe use one on a QB. Even so, I would still rather go best player available.
Sure! That’s fine too!
It’s a rebuild and they are looking at all options and Mills was just that. An option.
If they don’t see the growth they can just move on.
They are going to probably have multiple 1’s.
 

amazing80

Fire Easterby
Kinda looked like a semi rolling pocket to me….But it was doomed from the start b/c there apparently was supposed to be some sort of a play fake to DJ..or at least Mills opened up with that motion to the opposite side and DJ took off the other way right into route. Hughes for his part didn’t bite for 1 split second and came straight to Mills. By the time Mills got his head around Hughes was already up on him. I’m leaning towards there being some type of fake that was supposed to take place b/c Hughes was just turned loose and they probably wanted him to bite on that motion either down or at the very least hesitate….either of which would’ve taken him out of the play completely.

View attachment 9134At that point Mills did his best to try to throw it around him, but Hughes was too close and he was able to get a hand on it.

View attachment 9135
but the play was there to be made and at the very least, we would’ve had a 1st down inside the 5 if it’s not tipped.
Not saying you are wrong, but how do we know Mills didn't mess this up completely with his play fake? DJ has been around a few years, I think it's much more likely that Mills just bombed the play and that's why the DE didn't bite.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Not saying you are wrong, but how do we know Mills didn't mess this up completely with his play fake? DJ has been around a few years, I think it's much more likely that Mills just bombed the play and that's why the DE didn't bite.
Possible, but unlikely b/c as I noted, all the action went left..o-line blocking, motion and on top of that you had twins up top….. on the left of the formation. They we’re trying to sell run to the left HARD.

The only other thing I’ve thought of is bad play design b/c on Mills’ play fake, he opens up & rotates around somewhat slowly.
 

Texansballer74

Hall of Fame
Possible, but unlikely b/c as I noted, all the action went left..o-line blocking, motion and on top of that you had twins up top….. on the left of the formation. They we’re trying to sell run to the left HARD.

The only other thing I’ve thought of is bad play design b/c on Mills’ play fake, he opens up & rotates around somewhat slowly.
Coach said it was a great play call, unfortunately they didn’t execute. Paraphrasing
 

steelbtexan

King of the W. B. Club
Contributor's Club
Not saying you are wrong, but how do we know Mills didn't mess this up completely with his play fake? DJ has been around a few years, I think it's much more likely that Mills just bombed the play and that's why the DE didn't bite.
How do we know the sun will come up in the east tomorrow?
 

OptimisticTexan

2021 Building Block 1 / Go Texans
Possible, but unlikely b/c as I noted, all the action went left..o-line blocking, motion and on top of that you had twins up top….. on the left of the formation. They we’re trying to sell run to the left HARD.

The only other thing I’ve thought of is bad play design b/c on Mills’ play fake, he opens up & rotates around somewhat slowly.
Not sure what everyone else saw but after watching the replay.....I think he really stuck his neck out on that play.
 

SnakeEyes

Under NRG
It was mentioned several times during Sunday's broadcasts that Mills has started only 13 games since high school. This is mind boggling. He was the #1 rated pocket passer coming out of high school so it appears he has the tools. But 13 games? He appears to have the mental makeup to not be "carr'ed" so he needs to play. The more he plays the more he will progress. He seems to have the football I Q to make this happen. To bad for TT, but Mills has shown enough to be #1.
Not just yet. Still has things to learn. But if he can sit after Taylor is back and watch...he will see what reads he should have made. And due to seeing action he will know the speed. After that next year he could be very good. While still trying to find his way he will likely be a solid QB in the near future (next season likely)
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Not just yet. Still has things to learn. But if he can sit after Taylor is back and watch...he will see what reads he should have made. And due to seeing action he will know the speed. After that next year he could be very good. While still trying to find his way he will likely be a solid QB in the near future (next season likely)
Right, I think he was exposed to a bunch in the offseason, which helped him understand the game in a different way. Regular season experience exposed him even more. Now in the meeting room everything should be making more sense.

When Tyrod comes back he'll be able to decompress & reflect with an even newer perspective.

Then when Tyrod gets hurt again we'll have a much better assessment of what this kid is going to be.

It's like a mini offseason
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
He's starting to look like an NFL QB now, not that I'm saying he's ready for prime time but Mills made some big strides of progress in todays game. But he was playing a different caliber of defense and in ideal conditions as opposed to the very difficult and foreign weather elements in Buffalo last week.
21/29; 312 yrds; 3 TDs & 0 pics; 141.7 ratings, and so they are only stats but what's not to like about those stats by our rookie QB ?
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
He's starting to look like an NFL QB now, not that I'm saying he's ready for prime time but Mills made some big strides of progress in todays game. But he was playing a different caliber of defense and in ideal conditions as opposed to the very difficult and foreign weather elements in Buffalo last week.
21/29; 312 yrds; 3 TDs & 0 pics; 141.7 ratings, and so they are only stats but what's not to like about those stats by our rookie QB ?
He played very well against a top pass defense with both of his starting OTs injured and no help from the run game. He did a great job spreading the ball around as well when the Pats took away Cooks. Very encouraging performance and he should have another game or two to show the Texans what he can do before Tyrod gets back to give him an opportunity to step back and learn.
 

TheRealJoker

Hall of Fame
Right, I think he was exposed to a bunch in the offseason, which helped him understand the game in a different way. Regular season experience exposed him even more. Now in the meeting room everything should be making more sense.

When Tyrod comes back he'll be able to decompress & reflect with an even newer perspective.

Then when Tyrod gets hurt again we'll have a much better assessment of what this kid is going to be.

It's like a mini offseason
I like this thought. People learn best by doing sure. But over the course of an NFL season it would certainly benefit a rookie QB once they have had a few starts like Mills will to take a step back and really digest what they’ve been learning all offseason.

Its one thing to be the scout team QB at practice and get advice from coaches/the starting QB in the filmroom. Its another thing to have had the game experience to now understand what you have been learning at the practice and film room. Much more valuable training tool, good post.
 

Mr teX

Hall of Fame
Unless we go on a run, I’d still like to see him go back on the bench when TT comes back. Reasoning is b/c I do still believe he can get something out of sitting and observing now that he’s got some real game experience. The other reason is b/c I don’t want him to be hurt going into next season..let TT take as much of this punishment behind this o-line.

chances are tho that TT will get hurt again later in the season and he’ll have to come in again. If that happens, then Mills should just finish out the season.
 

IDEXAN

Hall of Fame
Contributor's Club
He played very well against a top pass defense with both of his starting OTs injured and no help from the run game. He did a great job spreading the ball around as well when the Pats took away Cooks. Very encouraging performance and he should have another game or two to show the Texans what he can do before Tyrod gets back to give him an opportunity to step back and learn.
I dunno do we really want to sit him when Tyrod is healthy if he's continuing to play well and show progress ?
 

ATXtexanfan

Hall of Fame
Unless the Texans figure out how to run the ball I want Tyrod starting.

Mills played well today. But not so well to back the defense up. Teams are going to crowd the line we can’t run & we’re not going to win.
Think long term. Playing Tyrod does nothing to help long term
 

thunderkyss

Just win baby!!!
Staff member
Contributor's Club
Think long term. Playing Tyrod does nothing to help long term
Winning is a habit. These guys aren’t going to give a crap if they don’t get a win soon. The coach speak will go in one ear & out the other.

Bad pass rushes will start teeing off on your rookie QB & you won’t be able to tell what is truly bad & what’s just a symptom of dontgivafah. 71 might be playing his butt off, but looks bad because 78 is going through the motions.

QB is important, but Britt & Cannon are on one year deals. Are we going to extend either of them? Same with the rest of the team. We won’t know what we got if we’re more worried about developing Mills than winning games.

Last week Culley said the defense played well, but we’re left on the field too long. How true was that? Today the offense played well for 3 Qtrs. Defense was in a bad spot for maybe the last two… they still ran out of gas.
 

ATXtexanfan

Hall of Fame
Let the kid see the worst environment possible. If it breaks him, oh well. Today was enough to when he will hold a clip board elsewhere
 

amazing80

Fire Easterby
Winning is a habit. These guys aren’t going to give a crap if they don’t get a win soon. The coach speak will go in one ear & out the other.

Bad pass rushes will start teeing off on your rookie QB & you won’t be able to tell what is truly bad & what’s just a symptom of dontgivafah. 71 might be playing his butt off, but looks bad because 78 is going through the motions.

QB is important, but Britt & Cannon are on one-year deals. Are we going to extend either of them? Same with the rest of the team. We won’t know what we got if we’re more worried about developing Mills than winning games.

Last week Culley said the defense played well, but we’re left on the field too long. How true was that? Today the offense played well for 3 Qtrs. Defense was in a bad spot for maybe the last two… they still ran out of gas.
Half this roster won't be here next season so their winning in 2021 will be irrelevant.
 

SnakeEyes

Under NRG
Think your right. I'm totally on board with him finishing the season.
I would rather Taylor finished the season. Mills is learning and important is very clear. However, if he can sit back and watch for the rest of the year, he will start seeing how/when/where he made mistakes. Better than that, he can learn how to avoid them. So, come next year he can straight ball out.
 

Thorn

Dirty Old Man
Mills has shown he can play in the NFL, and I think he has a career in the NFL ahead of him, but as a backup or a starter we'll have to wait on that. For now, I'm glad we have him as the "backup" QB. If he does end up beating TT out of a job, good for him, but I'm not expecting that. Anyway, it's not like the Texans are going anywhere with either of the two this year.
 


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