QB Confidence Index: Rating all 32 NFL QB situati
Feb 10, 2017
- Dan GrazianoESPN Staff Writer
You got a quarterback or not? Or are you not quite sure? These questions define the NFL offseason.
Teams that have quarterbacks are able to go about the rest of their business in relative peace, sure that the biggest roster question is taken care of, and able to attack the other questions with the confidence that certainly inspires. The Colts have a ton of work to do, sure, but they know what they have at the most important spot.
Teams that don't have quarterbacks feel as if nothing will ever be right again until they do. The Texans love their roster, but for the second year in a row they're trying to figure out the right guy to plug in behind center to make it all run correctly.
With that in mind, let's take a look at each NFL team's quarterback confidence situation. This is not simply a ranking of starters, though starters (especially those who never miss games) obviously make up the bulk of the formula. Nor is it a pure comparison of quarterbacks' accomplishments to date. It's a rating of each team based on the confidence it currently should carry about the position.
We've sorted the teams into categories (and ranked them within each category) to give a sense of where they stand on the quarterback position as the offseason unfolds. Have a loo
ALL SET
1. New England Patriots
Sure,
Tom Brady turns 40 in August. But you watched
the Super Bowl on Sunday. He look 40 to you? The Patriots' ranking is bolstered by how strong their backup situation is. They know
Jimmy Garoppolo can fill in, and they like
Jacoby Brissett as Brady's backup if a team makes them an offer for Jimmy G they can't refuse.
2. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers might be angling for the team to get out of its free-agent comfort zone and get him some help. But whether the Packers do or don't, they're going to continue to count on Rodgers to carry them in the biggest spots.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan was just named MVP of the league. The departure of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan could shake things up in Atlanta, but Ryan should be moving forward with supreme confidence after the season he just had and with the weapons he has around him.
4. Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter appear to be made for each other. Stafford might not quite rise to the level of some other guys on this list, but he's everything the Lions want and does everything they need him to do. Expect the 29-year-old Stafford to land a huge contract extension this offseason.
5. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts need offensive linemen, receivers and a bunch of help on defense. But they believe
Andrew Luck is the truth. They're committed to him long term, and their mission is to build around him.
SET, BUT FOR HOW LONG?
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger would put the Steelers squarely in the first category if not for the noise he made recently about potential retirement. The expectation is that Roethlisberger will play in 2017, but if he's thinking about the end, the Steelers have to be thinking about what comes next. Big Ben turns 35 in March.
7. New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is 38, but he just posted the fifth 5,000-yard passing season of his career. The contract he signed last offseason basically ensures one more season with the Saints and then allows him to see where things stand. Look at Brees as year-to-year now, but expect him to be
ABLE to deliver for at least a couple more.
8. Los Angeles Chargers
Philip Rivers seems to be reluctantly embracing the team's move from San Diego to Los Angeles, but it'll be interesting to see how he feels after a full season there. At 35 years old and with his fortune made, he has to be thinking about when it's time to wrap it up and go home to all those kids.
9. New York Giants
It was a down year for
Eli Manning, and while the Giants still believe in him, don't be surprised if they look for a quarterback in this year's draft to groom as Eli's eventual replacement. He's 36 but likely has a few good years left. The Giants fixed the defense last season but now have to rebuild the offense around Manning and
Odell Beckham Jr.
10. Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer is
back, but he thought long and hard about retiring. Cardinals general manager Steve Keim said last August, "That's all I think about," when asked whether he ponders life after Palmer. That pondering should ramp up this offseason.
CAUGHT ON A SPEED BUMP
11. Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson was hurt and had no offensive line, and Seattle's running game kind of fell apart around him. So you might be able to give him a pass for his 2016 season. There's no reason to think Wilson can't jump back to his 2015 level, but if he doesn't, he doesn't belong in the top two groups.
12. Carolina Panthers
Same with 2015 MVP
Cam Newton, whose completion percentage dipped to an abysmal, career-low 52.9 in 2016. Was it a Super Bowl hangover? Or was it closer to what we can expect from Newton going forward? He'll turn 28 in May, so there's plenty of time left.
TRENDING UP
13. Oakland Raiders
Derek Carr was an MVP candidate before he got hurt, mainly because of the toughness and leadership he showed late in games. He doesn't rate statistically with some of the guys higher on this list -- he ranked 16th in the league in
Total QBR -- but he has improved every season and offers the Raiders reason to be confident in him long term. Carr is another quarterback who's likely to get a big contract extension this offseason.
14. Washington
This assumes Washington brings back
Kirk Cousins, either on the franchise tag or on a new long-term deal, which he wants. Either way, Cousins proved himself in 2016, finishing third in the league in passing yards. He's the franchise guy Washington needs, even if he's still not the one they wish they had.
JUST FINE
15. Kansas City Chiefs
Alex Smith can get you to the playoffs. Alex Smith is better than most people think. Alex Smith is fine. Just fine. The Chiefs will win if the defense plays at an elite level and can dominate in the running game. Smith isn't going to be the reason the Chiefs lose.
16. Baltimore Ravens
Many quarterbacks on this list are still wondering whether they can win a Super Bowl. Flacco knows he can, because he has. But since then, he has never performed as he did during that magical run four years ago. So he sits here. Just fine. The Ravens know what they have, but they need more around him to win.
17. Minnesota Vikings
Even if
Teddy Bridgewater can't bounce back from his major knee injury in time for the start of the 2017 season, the Vikings feel good about
Sam Bradford. He just set a single-season record for completion percentage, and he's playing for offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, for whom Bradford has had success in the past.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Like Flacco in Baltimore,
Andy Dalton isn't the reason the Bengals don't win. He was a fringe MVP candidate two years ago and can play at a high enough level to win games if he has the right support around him. No one in Cincinnati is pounding their chest in the faces of Patriots fans and yelling, "We got
DALTON" -- but they know they could do much worse.